Institut für Agrarpolitik und Landwirtschaftliche Marktlehre

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An empirical analysis of the Swiss generalized system of preferences
(2018) Ritzel, Christian; Grethe, Harald
The progressively introduced DFQFMA for LDCs has a positive effect on the size of LDCs’ preferential exports to Switzerland. Consequently, the DFQFMA has considerably improved market access for the world’s poorest countries. Eliminating tariffs (progressively) causes preferential agro-food and textile exports of LDCs to rise substantially. However, it has to be remarked that the success of the DFQFMA is limited to the agro-food and textile sectors and to a few countries. The descriptive analysis of agro-food exports indicates that trade liberalization is a success story merely for a few LDCs, namely Tanzania, Ethiopia, Côte d’Ivoire, Mozambique, Malawi, Senegal and Uganda. Those seven countries capture a total share of nearly 80 percent of LDCs’ agro-food exports to Switzerland. In the textile sector we observe an even higher degree of market concentration concerning LDCs’ preferential exports. Here, three countries, namely Bangladesh, Cambodia and Nepal, account for 98 percent of LDCs’ preferential textile exports. It also can be noted that the GSP is a useful supplement to ‘duty-free tariffs’ (duty-free market access) under the WTO regime. For instance, 100 percent of LDCs’ agro-food exports from 2002 to 2011 entered Switzerland under reduced or duty-free tariffs. However, the share of preferential exports under the GSP was on average only 36 percent. In this context, the preference margin, which represents the main incentive to export under preferential conditions, compensates the costs of compliance associated with the GSP and yields an additional benefit for the importer has a consistent and positive effect on the level of the utilization rate. In particular, the application of the Heckman´selection model in article no. 1 makes clear that once trade contracts are established and an exporter has overcome bureaucratic obstacles in the form of proof of origin and proof of direct shipment, the ‘preference margin’ appears as the main incentive to export under preferential conditions granted by the GSP. While the effect of the size of ‘GSP eligible trade’ has a positive and significant effect in the case of the PPML estimations, the effect turned negative when the sample was restricted to positive values of the utilization rate in the case of the outcome equation of the Heckman selection model. This finding encourages our confidence that the ‘preference margin’ acts as the main incentive for exporting under preferential conditions. However, to benefit from these preferential tariffs, the institutional quality of a given DC or LDC is of crucial importance. Additionally, we address the question of whether reciprocal trade preferences are more beneficial for DCs compared to non-reciprocal trade preferences. Because trade preferences under the Swiss GSP are offered to the country group of DCs as a whole, non-reciprocal trade preferences are not tailored to the export structure of a particular DC. Consequently, by switching from non-reciprocal to negotiated reciprocal trade preferences, DCs such as Tunisia expect to negotiate terms which are tailored to their export structure and better conditions than competitors from countries which are still beneficiaries of the GSP. The Tunisian case study reveals that the switch from the GSP to an FTA causes no significant advantage in most of the export sectors. This implies that switching from non-reciprocal to reciprocal trade preferences yields advantages in export sectors where Tunisia has comparative cost advantages. This is especially true for the textile sector and partly so for the agro-food sector.
An integrated computable general equilibrium model including multiple types and uses of water
(2015) Luckmann, Jonas Jens; Grethe, Harald
Water is a scarce resource in many regions of the world and competition for water is an increasing problem. To countervail this trend policies are needed regulating supply and demand for water. As water is used in many economic activities, water related management decisions usually have complex implications. Economic simulation models have been proven useful to ex-ante assess the consequences of policy changes. Specifically, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are very suitable to analyze the consequences of water-related management decisions, as they consider the interlinkages between different sectors and economic agents within an economy. However, so far there is no CGE model which provides a holistic picture of the water sector including all aspects of provision, demand and management. Against this background, in this thesis a CGE model (STAGE_W) is developed which is especially focused on the water sector and provides a generic, integrated and flexible framework to incorporate various water sources from which several water activities produce water commodities of differing quality. These are consumed by other activities or by households. The applications presented in this thesis are to the best knowledge of the author the first CGE approaches to depict the recycling of wastewater and the provision of brackish groundwater as independent activities. Another novelty of the model is that it is capable to depict cascading water use. Furthermore, the inclusion of several water specific taxation instruments allows for a wide range of water policy simulations. To demonstrate the capabilities of the model, STAGE_W is applied to a Social Accounting Matrix for Israel. Based on this database several case studies are conducted which are presented in three scientific articles. Israel provides an ideal example as the country is strongly affected by water scarcity and is also among the world leaders regarding the development of new water sources and technologies. In the first article, a literature review on previously existing approaches of water depiction in CGE models is provided along with a detailed description of the specifics of STAGE_W. The model is applied to simulate a reduction of freshwater resources. The effects of this shock are analyzed with and without further increasing the desalination capacity. The results show that the economic effects are slightly negative under both scenarios. Counterintuitively, the provision of additional potable water through desalination does not substantively reduce the negative outcomes. This is mainly due to the high costs of desalination, which are currently subsidized in Israel. The second article simulates an abolishment of the discriminatory water pricing system currently established in Israel. Instead, two alternative schemes are introduced: price liberalization, which unifies the prices for all potable water consumers at cost recovery rates, and marginal pricing, lifting the potable water price to the cost of desalination. It is found that both schemes yield a double dividend by simultaneously saving water and increasing economic growth. Thereby, marginal pricing allows for larger water savings while price liberalization results in higher economic growth. In the third article, the model is further refined: the quantity of sewage available for reclamation is linked to the water consumption of economic entities connected to a sewer system. This allows to depict cascading water use and to endogenously estimate the marginal value of unpurified sewage. It is shown that a consideration of this link is crucial, if a high share of potable water is reclaimed and used. In this case, reducing the potable water consumption of municipalities also negatively affects the availability of reclaimed wastewater and thereby reduces its potential as a substitute for potable water. These case studies provide evidence of the validity of the model developed. The model results cannot necessarily be anticipated, as they are the outcome of complex interrelations within the model and none of the previous models has the capacity to capture all the relevant aspects of the water sector which influence these outcomes. Therefore, it is concluded that STAGE_W constitutes a helpful tool to implement a more sustainable management of water resources, allowing policy makers to ex-ante estimate the economy-wide effects of water related decisions. As the whole economy is depicted, a more holistic picture of effects resulting from changes in the water sector can be drawn in comparison to single sector models or cost-benefit analyzes.
Die Bedeutung von Werten in Genossenschaften und deren Umsetzung
eine empirische Analyse
(2015) Hill, Sebastian; Doluschitz, Reiner
In this dissertation, we aimed to clarify what values are considered as typical for cooperatives in theory and practice, how the values are applied and realized in practice, and what are their functions and potentials. In the first step, a comprehensive analysis of relevant literature on a national and international level was used to identify which values are seen, in theory, as cooperative-specific values. Based on the results of the literature analysis, a questionnaire was developed and the branch, the size and age of the cooperative as well as the status of the respondents were defined as influencing factors. The questionnaire was sent as a digital quantitative survey to one manager in each of the 844 existing cooperatives in the Baden-Württemberg study region. As a second step, a written (postal) survey was conducted, involving a total of 3,552 members and 707 employees from two Cooperative Banks and Raiffeisen Cooperatives and three Commercial Cooperatives. The evaluation results of the database (from primary and secondary data) show that in scientific literature, cooperative values’ core is described as one that includes the values of democracy, self-help, solidarity, self-responsibility, voluntariness, equality and justice. Some of these values were also mentioned in the results of the empirical survey, whereas the cooperative managers tended to list general values such as reliability, sustainability and fairness, as typical for cooperatives. However, it can be shown that the traditional values still have significant and implicit influence on the legal form of registered cooperatives, and that the previously defined influencing factors have a strong effect on the relevant central values. Although differences could be found between the perception and implementation of cooperative values, a conscious and purposeful communication strategy can have a decisive influence here. The hidden functions and potentials of cooperative values are undisputed in practice, such as the functions of identity and foundation of trust, or discrimination against other types. In addition, the survey shows that in the minds of the managers, members and workers, the cooperative values have social and economic potentials as well as potentials for the marketing of the cooperatives. In summary, it can be said, that the cooperative values are a unique instrument for the cooperatives to promote the legal from of registered cooperatives. It is therefore important to recognize and exploit these potentials to gain a sustainable and successful future not just for the cooperative sector, but also for the whole German society.
Broiler production in Ghana and Senegal
farm economics, international competitiveness and policy considerations
(2023) Chibanda, Craig Chikomborero; Wieck, Christine
Chicken meat consumption has rapidly increased in many West African countries in the last three decades. The increase in consumption has been attributed to several factors, which include population growth, urbanization, rising incomes, and the nutritional importance of chicken meat. However, poultry producers in many West African countries were struggling to meet the rising demand. Consequently, the gap in supply and demand led to an increase in frozen poultry meat imports by many African countries at the end of the 1990s. Most of the imports consisted of chicken meat cuts, which were considerably cheaper than domestically produced chicken meat. Price-wise, domestic chicken meat could not compete with imports, which sparked debate over their importation. In West African nations such as Ghana, Senegal, and Ivory Coast, farm closures, income losses, and a precipitous decline in domestic poultry production are believed to have resulted from the imports' low prices. In the early 2000s, countries in the region reacted differently to the influx of low-priced chicken imports, with some countries instituting protectionist measures that halted the imports while others continued to import the low-priced frozen chicken meat as a means of providing their citizens with a source of affordable animal protein. Although there has been much debate about the various pathways that countries have taken, limited research has been conducted to compare the agronomic and economic status quo of broiler chicken production in countries with different policies. Against this backdrop, the overarching objective of this dissertation is to investigate the economics and international competitiveness of broiler production in two West African countries pursuing different poultry trade policies: Ghana (which is heavily reliant on chicken meat imports) and Senegal (which banned poultry meat imports for almost two decades). Five research gaps in the body of literature on broiler production in Ghana and Senegal are identified in this dissertation. First, existing studies classify broiler production in Ghana and Senegal into broad production systems that are ambiguous. Second, although a number of studies have been conducted on the Ghanaian broiler value chain, there are conflicting arguments regarding the reasons for its lack of development. Third, existing studies do not provide comprehensive analyses of the performance (management), cost structure, and profitability of different broiler farm types in Ghana and Senegal. Fourth, there are no existing studies that compare the international competitiveness of broiler farms in West African countries like Ghana and Senegal with those in key chicken meat exporting countries. Fifth, the current body of literature fails to adequately examine some policy-related concerns. Specifically, little consideration is given to the potential effects of implementing alternative poultry trade policies in Ghana on producers. Based on these research gaps, this dissertation attempts to answer three overarching research questions: i. What is the state of broiler farm economics and broiler value chains in Ghana and Senegal? ii. How does the competitiveness of broiler farms in Ghana and Senegal compare with those in key chicken meat exporting countries in Europe (i.e., Germany and the Netherlands)? iii. What are the potential effects of implementing alternative poultry trade policies in Ghana? As this is a cumulative dissertation, the research questions were addressed in a series of journal articles that are included in this dissertation as chapters 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. Chapter 2 characterizes and analyses the economics of broiler production systems in Ghana. The typical farm approach is used for this purpose. This approach entails constructing empirically grounded farm data sets that are called “typical farms” through the use of a multi-stakeholder workshop, semi-structured interviews, and focus groups. Three broiler production systems in three regions were identified. They include the large-scale integrated production system (> 20,000 birds/year) in the Ashanti (Kumasi) region, the medium-scale system (5,000–20,000 birds/year) in the Brong-Ahafo (Dormaa) region, and the small-scale commercial system (< 5,000 birds/year) in the Greater Accra region. The Technology Impact Policy Impact Calculations (TIPI-CAL) model was then used to determine the performance, costs of production, and profitability of typical farms. TIPI-CAL is a production and accounting model used for farm economic analysis as it allows a detailed examination of farm-level variables and simulations. The findings presented in Chapter 2 show that the typical small-scale farm is performing the least in comparison to the other farm types in the country in terms of feed conversion ratios (FCR) and Broiler farm economy index (BFEI). The low farm performance of the typical small-scale farm is attributed to the use of poor-quality feed, inappropriate husbandry practices, and its long feeding period. Small-scale producers in Ghana attribute the unusually long feeding period (around 63 days) to market competition from low-priced frozen chicken meat imports. The producers explained that instead of selling their chickens in 42 days they had to rear them for up to 63 days because there is no ready market for them. The findings also show that although the typical medium-scale and large-scale integrated farms are generally performing better than the small-scale farm, they are also not performing so well in terms of the expected performance levels. Furthermore, the results show that broiler production in Ghana is typically seasonal. The seasonal production was attributed to the competition from frozen chicken meat imports, which are cheaper and more readily available in cut pieces, making preparation easier than with domestic chickens that are typically sold live. The results of the farm economic analysis also show that feed and day-old chick (DOC) costs are the most significant production cost items for all three typical farms. Despite the relatively high costs of feed and DOCs, broiler production as a seasonal activity is profitable for all typical farms. Chapter 3 studies the performance of Ghana’s poultry value chain and examines the interlinked challenges that actors in the value chain are facing and their underlying causes. The Sustainable Food Value Chain (SFVC) framework is used to assess and develop strategies to sustainably upgrade the Ghanaian broiler value chain. The SFVC concept moves away from the traditional approach of value chain analysis, where well-known constraints are listed along with proposed recommendations. Instead, the concept takes a universal perspective to identify the interlinked foundational causes of why value chain actors fail to take advantage of existing end-market opportunities. Due to the complex nature of studying value chains, both qualitative and quantitative research methods are employed. These include focus groups, semi-structured interviews, desk reviews, and the Delphi method. The results of the study highlight the poor economic, social, and environmental performance of the Ghanaian poultry sector. Although the results of the Delphi study show that poultry experts in Ghana perceive imports and high feed costs as the most significant challenges facing the value chain, a deeper analysis reveals that weak vertical and horizontal coordination among actors in the value chain, coupled with low commitment from supporting stakeholders, emerge as the root causes of the value chain's challenges. To achieve sustainable growth, the Ghanaian poultry value chain requires commitment and support from the government and other stakeholders, as well as coordination between them. The study also explains that effective vertical relationships (e.g., trust and communication) will play a vital role in the process of upgrading the value chain by promoting conditions that encourage investment. Also, effective cooperation in the horizontal linkages, for example, among producer associations (especially for the many small-scale producers), would contribute to reducing their production costs while facilitating their access to buyers and processors. In addition, competitive improvements would result in more value-added domestic chicken products that cater to the growing demands of Ghanaian consumers at lower prices. Chapter 4 studies the state of broiler production in Senegal after nearly two decades of poultry import restrictions. It provides a synopsis of the Senegalese broiler value chain and evaluates the performance and economics of different farm types. A multi-stakeholder workshop and interviews were conducted with key informants to investigate the structure and activities of the Senegalese broiler value chain. Again, the typical farm approach was used to construct and analyze typical farms that represent the most common broiler production systems in Senegal. Small-scale (<10.000 birds/year), medium scale (10,000–100,000 birds/year), and large-scale integrated (> 100,000 birds/year) production systems were identified as the most prevalent broiler production systems. The findings show that the two typical medium-scale broiler farms in Senegal are performing well in terms of FCRs, BFEI, and mortality rates. The good performance is attributed to the use of high-quality inputs (feed and chicks) and good husbandry practices. The results of the value chain analysis suggest that the country has well-developed feed and hatchery industries. Therefore, the development of these industries has ensured that producers have access to domestically produced, high-quality inputs. Nevertheless, the typical small-scale farm is not performing well, and this is attributed to inappropriate poultry husbandry practices. Additionally, the analysis revealed that feed and day-old chick (DOC) costs are the most significant in conventional broiler production in Senegal. Despite the high costs of feed and DOCs, broiler production is profitable for all typical farms. Chapter 5 examines whether differences in the competitiveness of broiler farms in Ghana, Senegal, Germany, and the Netherlands provide insight into why domestically produced chicken meat in West African countries is more expensive than imports from Europe. For this comparison, farm management (none monetary farm performance indicators) and economic performance indicators (costs of production and profitability) of typical broiler farms in the four countries are derived. The study shows that most of the typical broiler farms in Ghana and Senegal are not competitive with farms in Germany and the Netherlands in terms of farm management. More specifically, the findings show that the typical German and Dutch broiler farms are performing better than all typical farms in Ghana and the typical small-scale farm in Senegal in terms of the FCRs, BFEI, mortality rates, and number of production cycles per year. However, the performance of typical medium scale farms in Senegal is almost comparable to that of German and Dutch farms in terms of all the farm management indicators that were analyzed. The good farm management of medium scale farms in Senegal is attributed to good animal husbandry practices and the use of high-quality feed and high-quality DOCs. The findings also show that typical broiler farms in Ghana and Senegal are not competitive with German and Dutch farms in terms of economic performance. The poor economic performance of the Ghanaian and Senegalese farms is attributed to higher production costs. Apparently, the broiler farms in the two countries have higher production costs due to high feed and DOC costs. In Ghana, high feed costs are attributed to high feed prices and feed-use inefficiency (reflected by high FCRs). In the case of Senegal, high feed costs are largely due to high feed prices. Having established that typical broiler farms in Ghana and Senegal are not competitive in terms of farm management and costs of production , the impact of improving farm management (primarily the FCRs) on production costs was then simulated using the TIPI-CAL model. The results of the simulations demonstrate that improving farm management to optimum levels would lead to a reduction in the costs of production for Ghanaian and Senegalese farms. However, the reduction would not be sufficient to make the farms competitive with those in Germany and the Netherlands because high input costs (feed and DOC) are the primary contributors to high production costs. Improving the competitiveness of broiler farms will therefore require a combination of interventions designed to lower input costs and enhance farm management. For decades, Ghanaian policymakers have been pressured to implement protectionist policies to protect the poultry value chain from low-priced imports. Chapter 6 examines the potential impact of implementing these policies. The Modular Applied General Equilibrium Tool (MAGNET) and TIPI-CAL models are used to examine the: (1) potential impact of a hypothetical complete ban of poultry meat imports in Ghana; (2) potential impact of a partial ban of poultry products (banning poultry products originating from the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Russia); (3) potential effects of raising the import tariffs on poultry meat in Ghana to 40 percent and 99 percent; and (4) potential effects of abolishing the current 5% import tariff rate on maize imports. The results show that a complete ban on poultry meat imports would have a positive impact on domestic poultry meat production, increasing production by 254%. This increase will be most likely driven by existing farms doubling their production cycles and new producers attracted to a protected broiler sector. The findings also show that a complete ban would increase the importation of maize. Considering the importance of maize for poultry production in Ghana, the effects of abolishing the existing 5% import tariff rate on maize were simulated. The results show that removing the tariff would not lead to a significant increase in poultry production. This is most likely due to the fact that the tariff rate is already very low. In accordance with World Trade Organization (WTO) agreements, Ghana is allowed to increase the tariff rate on poultry meat up to 99% (the maximum level of bound tariff). The findings show that increasing the tariff rate from the current 35% to 99% would result in a 104% increase in domestic poultry meat production. The tariff would offer significant protection to domestic producers and result in a significant reduction in poultry meat imports (around 57% reduction in imports). The typical farm analysis indicates that broiler farms in Ghana are more prevalent in urban and peri-urban areas. Therefore, a boost in domestic poultry meat production would most likely lead to an increase in urban and peri-urban employment. The findings also show that medium- and large-scale farms employ the highest number of people; therefore, such farm types are expected to boost urban and peri-urban employment if they increase production. Also, of importance, an increase in domestic broiler production will most likely have positive knock-on effects on other value chain actors such as slaughterhouses, feed millers, and poultry traders. Although the results indicate that producers will benefit from the implementation of protectionist measures, it is important for policymakers to keep in mind that such measures will most likely also have negative implications. For example, the results show that protectionist measures would lead to a decrease in the Gross domestic product (GDP) as the measures would either reduce or eliminate the imports leading to reduced tariff revenues, which account for a large share of total tariff revenues in Ghana. The dissertation concludes that a comprehensive sector-wide policy-making approach that considers all the challenges facing the different value chain actors (e.g., hatcheries, feed millers, producers, traders, slaughterhouses and consumers) will be more effective in providing a delicate balance that ensures that the broiler value chains in Ghana and Senegal develop and consumers have access to affordable chicken meat. Such an approach would also be useful in addressing the issue of high input prices (mainly feed and day-old chicks), which is at the center of the low competitiveness of broiler farms in the two countries. Additionally, the comprehensive policy-making approach should also consider the need for proper infrastructure and technology to support the growth of broiler value chains. This includes investments in cold storage facilities and slaughterhouses to ensure efficient and cost-effective processing and distribution of chicken meat. By addressing these challenges holistically, policymakers can create an enabling environment for the development of sustainable and competitive broiler value chains in both countries.
Carbon taxation in Russia
prospects for a double dividend and improved energy efficiency
(2013) Orlov, Anton; Grethe, Harald
Russia is not only one of the world?s major sources of carbon based energy ? coal, oil and gas ? but is also one the most intensive users of energy. Furthermore, Russia accounts for a disproportionately large share of global carbon dioxide emissions ? some 5% to 6% of global carbon dioxide emissions (EIA, 2011a). It has been estimated (World Bank, 2008) that Russia could reduce its use of primary energy use by 45% with consequent economic and environmental benefits. High energy and carbon intensity of the Russia economy is, inter alia, explained by low energy prices due to high export taxes as well as administrative regulation of domestic prices of gas and electricity and low environmental taxes. Carbon taxes are one such Pigouvian tax and they would address concerns on several fronts simultaneously. In the short to medium term they would, inter alia, lead to lower GHG emissions and encourage the diffusion of more energy efficient technologies. In the longer term, the increased cost of energy inputs is expected to induce technological progress. In this analysis, the macroeconomic and sectoral effects of carbon taxes on the Russia economy are examined. This analysis addresses the following objectives: i) to test the double dividend hypothesis under perfect and imperfect competition in output markets, to analyse ii) the incidence of carbon taxes, iii) impacts on sectoral competitiveness, iv) effects on income equity, and v) interactions of carbon taxes with other taxes. A computable single-country multi-sector comparative static CGE model is employed.
Essays on pre-commitment in Germany
(2019) Strohäker, Tanja; Becker, Tilman
As a superordinate topic, the thesis analyzes and evaluates selected pre-commitment tools that are available in the German gambling context. Pre-commitment is a form of self-binding that allows gamblers to limit money and time spent on gambling before they start a session. This is based on the underlying idea that gamblers will benefit from the fact that expenses and duration of stay are determined before commencing a gambling session, when they are not yet in a state of emotional arousal and hence more capable of deciding rationally. The most extreme form of limitation is the exclusion from gambling. While other countries established formalized pre-commitment systems allowing gamblers in arcades to limit time and money spent on gambling and/or self-exclude from establishments, Germany has not established such a comprehensive scheme yet. There are, however, certain types of gambling, for which at least exclusions are regulated, enforced and externally binding. To further improve the exclusion schemes, it is important to understand the drivers of exclusions. Hence, the second and third chapter of this thesis analyze the drivers for the variation of the number of exclusions between municipalities. Next to sociodemographic characteristics, the models also contain availability measures. Other than most countries, Germany distinguishes between casinos and gambling arcades. Casinos offer table games as well as automated gambling, whereas gambling arcades only provide electronic gambling machines (EGMs hereafter). Both establishments naturally attract different clientele, hence, a thorough examination of these two different types of gamblers is important. Chapter two concentrates on analyzing which variables drive the differences in the number of exclusions from casinos throughout German municipalities. This chapter aims to analyze the degree to which sociodemographic factors and proximity measures can be used to explain the variation in the number of excluded gamblers across German communities. At the time of the analysis, the exclusion file consisted of 31,118 unambiguously assignable entries distributed among 3,091 communities. The results of the study suggest that excluders are more likely to be male, between 30 and 39 years old, and less likely to be single. As only few of the sociodemographic variables yield significant results, we can only partially confirm the well-established risk factors for problematic or pathological gambling. Additionally, the results show that the number of exclusions increases with close proximity to gambling establishments. The distance to the closest casino has a negative impact on exclusions. This is backed up by the finding indicating that in relation, there are more exclusions in communities where casinos are located directly. Chapter three deals with a similar research question, which this time is tailored to excluders from gambling arcades in Hesse, Germany. The aim of the paper is to identify significant predictors that are useful in explaining the variation of exclusions between different Hessian communities. This data set contains 11,902 exclusions that are distributed among 191 Hessian communities. Next to sociodemographic factors, we control for three different accessibility measures in two models: the number of electronic gambling machines in model I as well as the number of locations and density of gambling machines at a location in model II. Considering the sociodemographic variables, the explanatory power of the cross-sectional models is rather low. Only the age group of 30 to39-year-olds and those who are not in a partnership (in model I) yield significant results. Hence we are again not able to determine a specific sociodemographic background for self-excluders. The accessibility variables, on the other hand, turn out to be significantly associated with the number of exclusions. All three of them are statistically significant and their association is positive. The fourth chapter deals with self-limitation, which is another type of pre-commitment. As there has existed no formalized limit scheme in Germany, it is left to evaluate voluntary and self-initiated limits that are frequently used as self-management strategies by gamblers, independent of their gambling severity. The analysis yields promising results. 50 percent of gamblers use at least one limit. There are significant differences in most variables concerning gambling behavior. Gamblers with limits consistently spend significantly less time and money in gambling arcades. The overarching goal of this doctoral thesis is to provide insights considering pre-commitment tools that can be used in the German gambling context. It shows that pre-commitment is an accepted and widely used instrument with positive consequences for gamblers. It is therefore worthwhile in any case to further expand the existing programmes.
Ex-ante measurement of redistributive effects of agricultural policy in western Germany
(2014) Deppermann, Jens Andre; Grethe, Harald
In recent decades, agricultural support of the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has increasingly shifted from market price support measures to budgetary payments. This development has made support more visible and has raised public attention to the distribution of support, which in turn increased political awareness of the topic. Simulation models are tools frequently used for the ex-ante analysis of policy reforms. In other scientific areas, e.g. poverty analysis or tax reform analysis, it is quite common to assess impacts of macroeconomic shocks on income distribution on a national scale by the application of behavioural ex-ante models and referring to the level of individual incomes. Similar tools for the measurement of impacts of sectoral or macroeconomic policies on the individual farm income level are less frequent for the agricultural sector and, apart from few exceptions, ex-ante studies of redistributive effects of agricultural policy are rare. Yet, in general, ex-ante policy impact analysis in the agricultural sector has a long tradition. The combination of models to jointly assess effects at different levels of aggregation and taking behavioural effects into account is very common. Most of the model chains, however, take farm groups or average farms into account rather than accounting for effects at the individual farm level. Some attempts have been made to combine macro or sectoral models with micro models, which incorporate the behaviour of individual farms. Such research, however, is often restricted to the analysis of certain types of farms. In general, ex-ante analyses of redistributive effects among individual farms on a supra-regional level in the sense of evaluating a counterfactual distribution of income with regard to a reference distribution of income including an assessment of progressivity or related concepts can hardly be found for the agricultural sector. Against this background, the main objective of this work is to develop a tool that is able to consistently assess impacts of agricultural policy on individual farm incomes, thereby building on existing modelling approaches and thus, taking behavioural effects into account for the ex-ante analysis of redistributive effects of agricultural policy. Subsequently, different liberalization scenarios are defined and a detailed analysis of redistributive effects is carried out for the western German agricultural sector by the application of methodologies borrowed from the field of tax progressivity analysis. Thereby, several contributions to the understanding of modelling inequality effects are made, methodologically as well as empirically. The modelling system consists of three layers. At the sectoral and the meso-level two previously developed large scale models are applied. The European Simulation Model (ESIM) is an agricultural sector model with a strong focus on the CAP. It depicts the world agricultural sector – though in different degrees of regional disaggregation – and quantifies effects of agricultural policy at the European and member state level. It is, however, unable to estimate intra-sectoral income changes at the farm level. The Farm Modelling Information System (FARMIS) is a more disaggregate model that depicts the German agricultural sector in great detail. It applies 628 homogenous farm groups and is used in the modelling chain to estimate impacts on the intra-sectoral distribution of income at the meso-level. The two models at the sectoral and meso-level are consistently linked via an iterative solution process. After convergence is achieved between ESIM and FARMIS, the integrated results are further processed in a micro model, estimating impacts at the individual farm level. The micro model has been developed for this study, is static in nature, and relies on the results of the meso-model. After changes in individual incomes are calculated as a first step by the modelling system for different scenarios, model results are analysed in a second step by the application of a methodology for the measurement of redistributive effects that was originally developed for the analysis of tax reforms. Based on the comparison and decomposition of relative and absolute Gini coefficients, detailed redistributive impacts of changes in agricultural policy are presented. For the analysis, scenario results for the year 2020 are evaluated relative to the income distribution of a reference scenario where the CAP is still in place in 2020. To account for different conceptual impacts of inequality analysis on results, the analysis is carried out at different aggregation levels, for different income classifications, and for income data generated in a static way in comparison to data generated by the modelling system. It can be stated that inequality effects are robust with regard to the conceptual differences tested for, at least in terms of the direction of inequality changes. All calculated liberalization scenarios lead to decreasing absolute income differences among western German farms in 2020 because high-income farms lose higher absolute amounts of money than small-income farms. Relative to their Baseline incomes, however, low-income farms tend to lose a higher share compared to high-income farms which leads to increasing relative inequality due to liberalization. Only one exemption from this pattern of results exists: if grouped results are disaggregated and total household income is considered instead of family farm income. In summary, this work provides an innovative combination and extension of different simulation models, which enables the ex-ante measurement of income changes for individual farms. This information in turn facilitates the measurement of redistributive effects in the agricultural sector taking behavioural effects into account.
Factor mobility and heterogeneous labour in computable general equilibrium modelling
(2014) Flaig, Dorothee; Grethe, Harald
The representation of labour markets in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models is characterised by a trade-off between data representation and data availability. Models are by definition abstract and simplified pictures of the real world: as a map of scale 1:1 does not help to find an unknown destination, a model which perfectly depicts the real world would hardly help to analyse adjustment effects of policy changes or macroeconomic shocks. When the analysis is focused on distributional issues, it seems obvious that such an analysis can only be based on models that differentiate at least more than one household group. Household groups characteristically differ in factor endowment and since factor income– besides price effects – is a main determinant of welfare analysis, the specification of labour markets crucially determines the analysis. There are mainly two possibilities to specify the labour market in a CGE model: First, the labour market can be set up as competitive market with perfect substitutability between individual workers on that market. With this setup, wages must be equal among labour types and sectors because every difference in wages provokes adjustments, which finally equalise wages again. In contrast, data reports typically significant wage differences between labour types that can only originate from imperfect labour markets. Thus, the second option is to depict these wage differences by imperfect substitutability of individual workers in the production process. But data on substitution possibilities of labour demand between different labour types is weak and estimations of substitution elasticities are in most of the cases not available. Meanwhile, in the real world, wages differ in various dimensions and in models labour types are typically differentiated by age, gender, skill level or occupation. When differentiating labour types within these dimensions, wage differences become possible and can be explained by transformation limitations between characteristics: e.g., wage differences between female and male workers are originating from the fact that female workers cannot become male workers. This differentiation has the effect that in most of the models, transformation between the characteristics of a dimension is no longer possible and workers stay in a specific labour type. Typically labour types are not differentiated by sector of employment and, thus, are assumed homogeneous amongst sectors. Movement of workers between sectors seems possible; nevertheless, data reports partly huge wage differences between different sectors of an economy. As a solution, CGE models typically include an efficiency parameter which allows calibrating the model according to the data, but the model assumes still homogeneous labour which should be priced equal. Thus, the efficiency parameter does not economically explain the existence of these wage differences. This thesis presents a comprehensive and flexible framework to introduce imperfect factor markets in CGE models. Labour mobility between labour types is controlled by migration functions where the degree of mobility is controlled by elasticities that govern the responsiveness of migration to changes in relative wages. Finally, the model provides the user with three additional instruments to control the operation of labour markets. First, the user can control the stock flow relationship for each labour type, e.g., does a migrating worker keep her productivity from the initial activity, adopt that of the destination activity or something in between; second, the user controls the flexibility of the labour market by setting the migration elasticities between activity blocks; and third, the setting of adjustment parameters determines the (assumed) costs of migrating. The analysis of productivity effects and costs of factor reallocation emphasises the relevance and influence of labour market specifications on model outcomes. Thus, this thesis sets the base for a careful setup and test of labour market assumptions applied in CGE models.
Kunststoffabfallmanagement und Strategien für eine Kreislaufwirtschaft in der Lebensmittelindustrie
(2025) Mielinger, Ellen; Weinrich, Ramona
The increasing global volume of waste poses a threat to the environment and the climate. Limiting the amount of waste and transforming the prevailing linear systems into a circular economy is an important task of our time. Packaging waste and especially plastic food packaging, account for a large proportion of waste due to their strong frequency and short lifespan. Avoiding waste from the outset and reducing food packaging is a top priority. At the same time, however, packaging increases the shelf life and transportability of foods, which is why it is often necessary to package food. Besides the threat to the earth’s health caused by plastic waste, food waste is also a major problem. To relieve the burden on ecosystems and achieve sustainability at all levels, it is therefore fundamental to prevent food waste and increase the recycling rates for packaging waste. In addition to technical innovations and the upgrading of recycling plants, consumer behaviour and the behaviour of the food industry play a decisive role. Through correct sorting behaviour at the household level and separately collected waste higher recycling rates can be achieved. On the other hand, which packaging and packaging materials are placed on the market by the food industry is crucial for a functioning circular economy. Against this background, the dissertation Plastic waste management and strategies for a circular economy in the food industry was authored. The first part of this dissertation analyses the introduction of sustainable food packaging from a social science perspective. Cross-national expert interviews provide information on what influences decision-making in companies in the food industry concerning sustainable packaging and what role consumers play from the experts' point of view. Although packaging sustainability is important, the economic aspect prevails when trade-offs between environmental compatibility and (additional) costs occur. According to the experts, consumers do not have sufficient knowledge and interest in packaging, leading to poor purchase decisions. This hinders the establishment of sustainable packaging. Moreover, the establishment of sustainable packaging is impeded by a certain disempowerment the interviewed experts feel exposed to. As a result, the experts dismiss the responsibility for more sustainable packaging solutions and shift it onto the state and food retailers. In line with a circular economy, in addition to the design and utilisation of environmentally friendly product packaging, the handling of the packaging after the consumption of the product is also of essential importance. Therefore, the second part of this thesis deals with the waste disposal behaviour of consumers. Influencing factors of waste separation behaviour at the private household level, preferred ways of information transmission concerning recycling rules and an extended deposit system as an approach to promoting the circular economy are analysed. Apart from packaging factors such as labels, internal factors that can be directly linked back to consumers can influence plastic packaging sorting behaviour. Focus group discussions reveal that uncertainty and confusion regarding the type of material often stand in the way of correct sorting behaviour. The internet and social media in particular are preferred for the information transmission of waste separation practices. Also, external factors, such as financial incentives or the prevalent waste disposal system, can influence consumers' sorting behaviour. One type of financial incentive is, for example, a deposit paid on single-use plastic packaging. This deposit is refunded as soon as the packaging is returned. This ensures a clean material flow, which can lead to higher recycling rates. Such a deposit refund system (DRS) already exists in Germany, including single-use beverage packages. Expert interviews with various stakeholders in the German waste management industry suggest that the success of the system in use and consumers' familiarity with it speaks for extending it also onto other single-use plastic food packages. However, this would require various different legal adjustments and the cooperation of all stakeholders involved in the process. There are also a number of organisational, economic and technical challenges that might stand in the way of an extension. In addition to the ecological optimisation of food packaging and resulting packaging waste, avoiding food waste at the private household level is an important sustainability goal. Therefore, in the digression of this work, a smartphone application aiming at reducing food waste is presented. The presented prototype can help consumers to better assess the shelf life of food and reduce uncertainty. Limitations concerning the results of the work arise primarily from the qualitative, explorative research approaches. Qualitative research is used to gain detailed and in-depth insights. Due to smaller sample sizes, it is not possible to derive generalisable results.
Nachhaltigkeitstransformation im Agrar- und Ernährungssektor: Verbraucherakzeptanz von Innovationen bei Lebensmitteln
(2024) Wendt, Marie-Catherine; Weinrich, Ramona
The current agricultural and food system is under significant pressure to transform and is in- creasingly confronted with numerous sustainability challenges and environmental, climate, and socio-political demands. Innovations in the food sector play a key role in addressing global sustainability challenges and accelerating the transformation of production and consumption patterns. However, the successful market introduction of innovative products and technologies requires consumer acceptance. This dissertation aims to investigate consumer acceptance of innovative food technologies and farming systems through empirical consumer surveys and to identify societal acceptance barriers. The study is exemplified by two subject areas. Subject Area I: “Consumer Acceptance of Technological Food Innovations” highlights that technological innovations in the food sector often face rejection, significantly hindering their market success and the transformation process. It is evident that Food Technology Neophobia (FTN) – the fear or aversion towards novel foods – is a significant predictor of the acceptance of innovative food technologies. Consumers with high FTN show a lower willingness to accept innovative food products and technologies. Assessing FTN prior to product launches is crucial for product development and marketing research. This assessment allows for estimating the success rate of innovative food products in the market, identifying potential risks early, and subsequently developing targeted strategies to overcome or reduce FTN. For the success of innovative food technologies, such as the production of cultured meat, con- sumer trust in the food industry, regulatory authorities, and science is essential. The second contribution segments the German population based on their trust in cultured meat and various actors along the food chain. Four consumer segments were identified, with trusting consumers (17.5%) forming the smallest segment. In contrast, 24.3% are classified as mistrustful consum- ers. The largest group comprises the cautious consumers (37.5%), who, together with the skep- tical consumers (20.7%), are undecided regarding their trust and purchase intention for cultured meat. Since these segments constitute almost 60% of the German population, the findings sug- gest that researching trust-building communication measures for these segments is particularly relevant. This could expand the potential target group for cultured meat and facilitate a success- ful market entry in Germany. A new agricultural concept is characterized by the complete abandonment of chemically syn- thetic pesticides while maintaining mineral fertilization. This has the potential to drive the trans- formation process towards more sustainable agriculture. In the second subject area, “Consumer Acceptance of Sustainability Innovations in Primary Production”, the market potential of pes- ticide-free animal products is examined in two interrelated contributions. Potential consumers (22.9%) show a willingness to consume pesticide-free products and to pay 31% more for pes- ticide-free milk, 23% more for cheese, and 24% more for butter than for conventional dairy products. The acceptance of these products is fostered by health consciousness, chemophobia, and perceived consumer effectiveness, while price sensitivity negatively affects acceptance. Targeted market positioning as a sustainable but more affordable alternative to organically pro- duced foods could make this innovative farming system attractive to a broad consumer base. Based on the findings, societal acceptance debates can be explained and resolved through the following aspects: (1) There is a general skepticism towards innovations in the food sector within the German population, mainly due to a lack of trust and insufficient information about production and regulatory processes. (2) Targeted communication approaches are necessary to clearly convey the added value of these products to consumers. (3) Increasing acceptance re- quires an integrative approach that includes education, transparency, and regulatory measures. Through targeted and coordinated efforts, companies, governments, and educational institu- tions can build consumer trust and promote the acceptance of new food technologies. This is essential for successfully transforming the agricultural and food system and achieving global sustainability goals.
Non-agricultural activities and household time use in Ethiopia
a computable general equilibrium model analysis
(2018) Mosa, Abdulaziz Abdulsemed; Grethe, Harald
Large shares of rural households engage, next to agricultural activities, in non-agricultural activities in most regions of Ethiopia. Non-agricultural activity is indispensable to reduce rural poverty and income inequality and contributes to livelihoods. The sector is crucially relevant for those who lack alternatives especially for women and landless rural households. However, the constraints of non-agricultural activities are not well studied and documented in Ethiopia. Few attempts have been made to identify the impediments to non-agricultural activities based on household surveys with limited coverage that are hardly representative of the whole country. Furthermore, to secure the potential benefits gained from the development of non-agricultural activities, it is essential to recognize and reduce the barriers confronted by the sector. To the author’s best knowledge, the potential economy-wide benefits drawn by reducing the impediments of non-agricultural activities are barely been studied and recognized. In other words, the potential effects of different policy instruments for facilitating non-agricultural activities are unexplored by the empirical literature on Ethiopia. Against this background, this study uses a comprehensive and country representative household survey to identify the constraints of non-agricultural activities in Ethiopia. Furthermore, two policy options for promoting rural non-agricultural activities are examined and discussed: First, the non-agricultural labor supply is stimulated by freeing labor time from labor-intensive home activities such as collecting water and firewood and second, the effect of improved access to road transport infrastructure for enhancing non-agricultural activities and its economy-wide outcomes are analyzed. The study reveals that major constraints of non-agricultural activities are limited access to finance, lack of market opportunities, limited education/training and poor access to roads, transport and communication. Rural households participate in non-agricultural activities due to a lack of access to agricultural land, low/volatile earnings, to look for a means to invest in agriculture and social/economic independence. The major non-agricultural activities are services (such as carpentry and transport), trade (wholesale and retail trade) and manufacturing (such as grain milling and brewing). The study also investigates the impact of water fetching and firewood collection on non-agricultural activities in Ethiopia. Since the sources of water and firewood are not easily accessible, households spend long hours per day for collecting water and firewood. For instance, rural households on average spend 0.64 hours per day for fetching water and 0.58 hours per day for firewood collection. The finding of this study reveals that water fetching and firewood collection adversely affect the adoption of non-agricultural activities in Ethiopia. Specifically, households that spend more labor hours for collecting water and firewood are less likely to engage in non-agricultural activities. The current study analyzes and discusses the effect of two alternative policy interventions for promoting non-agricultural activities in Ethiopia. The first policy option is facilitating the non- agricultural labor supply by freeing labor from water fetching and firewood collection. Improved access to drinking water infrastructure and energy efficient technology (for example, improved cooking stoves) significantly reduces the time spent on water fetching and firewood collection. The freed labor from water fetching and firewood collection is partly reallocated to marketed activities such as agricultural and non-agricultural activities or partly reallocated to leisure. Labor reallocated to market activities has economy-wide implications. This study examines the scenario of a 50% increase in the total factor productivity (TFP) of water fetching and firewood collection activities because of improved access to water infrastructure and energy efficient technology. Domestic and international sources of finance are used for funding water infrastructure and energy technology The simulation results show that improved access to water and energy efficient technology ensures reallocation of labor across different economic sectors. Since a large percentage of water fetchers and firewood collectors are agricultural laborers, agriculture absorbs a larger share of the released labor relative to other sectors (such as industry and services). Accordingly, the labor released from water fetching and firewood collection stimulates agricultural and non-agricultural production. Better access to drinking water and improved energy technology also enhances household welfare. Households that allocate a relatively large proportion of labor to water fetching and firewood collection gain relatively more welfare. Macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, total domestic production, absorption and imports are also positively affected due to improved access to water and energy efficient technology. The second policy option analyzed in this study is the role of improved access to road transport infrastructure for enhancing non-agricultural activities. Better access to road infrastructure reduces trade and transport margins and enhances efficiency of activities that produce trade and transport services. This study explores the policy scenarios of a 1.8% to 2.1% reduction of trade and transport margins and a 1.1% increase in the total factor productivity (TFP) of activities that produce trade and transport services. The cost of funding road infrastructure is obtained from domestic and international sources.The simulation results indicate that improved access to road transport infrastructure reduces consumer prices of marketed commodities and enhances domestic production in agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. The simulations also exhibit welfare improvement among rural and urban households and facilitate economic growth. Therefore, improved access to road transport infrastructure is important for the development of non-agricultural activities. In general, improved access to the road transport network, drinking water supply and energy saving technologies should be recognized as a fundamental component for facilitating rural non-agricultural activities in Ethiopia. This study has revealed that policy interventions targeted towards promoting non-agricultural activities lead to considerable economy-wide positive outcomes and stimulate the entire economic activities in the country.
Projecting EU agri-food exports amidst a free trade agreement - A study on dairy products in Japan
(2024) Berndt, Marvin; Hess, Sebastian
The export of dairy products is an important part of the marketing strategy for the German and European dairy industry, and contributes to overall revenue generation. Diversification of export markets is not only relevant for export-orientated companies, but is also important for political reasons as it reduces dependencies on certain markets and lessens the effects of potential trade conflicts. Japan is becoming an increasingly important market for exportorientated dairy companies, as domestic production is unable to meet Japanese consumers’ growing demand for dairy products. The EU-Japan Free Trade Agreement (JEFTA), which was ratified on 1 February 2019, opens up Japan’s previously closed market to European agri-food products, achieved by, among other things, lowering tariffs and introducing tariff rate quotas (TRQ). Dairy products in particular are given consideration in JEFTA, as five of the 25 TRQs introduced by Japan relate to them. The TRQ for cheese products stands out here, as it is the only TRQ that will increase beyond JEFTA’s implementation period in proportion to an increase in Japanese consumption. As a comprehensive and deep agreement, JEFTA has stimulated a large body of analyses that focus on various aspects of the potential impacts of the agreement’s full implementation. The analyses are primarily based on general computable equilibrium models (CGE), which are widely used in the analysis of free trade agreements but are subject to restrictions in terms of the data that can be used. The analyses confirm that JEFTA will have a positive influence on the development of European exports of agri-food and dairy products to Japan. However, the results of previous analyses are not satisfactory for exporters of dairy products or policymakers as important questions concerning the differentiated development of various dairy products, emerging or disappearing trade flows, and the accuracy of predictions made remain unanswered. This dissertation is dedicated to answering these outstanding questions. The first of the three research chapters, chapter 4, deals with the question of whether there will be differences in the development of future exports of various dairy products within the framework of JEFTA. This question arises because Japan has made different concessions to the EU with respect to the various dairy products under JEFTA, but dairy products have been aggregated in earlier analyses. A gravity model was used to analyse how the exports of 15 different dairy products from the EU to Japan will develop within the context of JEFTA. The analysis focuses on the effects of the TRQs granted by Japan for the export of EU dairy products. The results showed a differentiated development of future exports of dairy products: by 2033, EU exports of dairy products to Japan will increase by 82.1 % (compared with the three-year average in 2018) to USD 828 million. Exports under TRQs will increase from an initial USD 102 million in 2019 to USD 149 million in 2033, but the share of exports under TRQ will fall from 23.9 % to 17.9 %. Two thirds of the total increase in exports are accounted for by the product group “Other cheese”, which primarily includes hard cheeses such as Gouda. The extent to which future cheese exports can be increased essentially depends on how much the corresponding TRQ increases. When analysing future exports, it is important to bear in mind that exports not only change based on the volume of existing trade relations between countries (intensive margin), but that new trade relations can also emerge or disappear (extensive margin). Chapter 5 therefore analyses the extent to which the structure of EU agri-food exports, i.e. the number of agri-food trade flows of the individual EU member states, will change under JEFTA. For this purpose, an estimation procedure was developed based on the model of Felbermayr & Kohler (2010). Within the framework of this estimation procedure, predictions are possible that explicitly take into account the emergence and disappearance of trade flows between countries, i.e. changes in the extensive margin. With the full implementation of JEFTA in 2038, there is a slight decline in the volume of predicted EU agri-food exports if developments in the extensive margin are taken into account. However, the full extent of the changing trade structure only becomes clear when newly emerging and disappearing trade flows are considered separately. This shows that new trade flows to Japan of a total volume of USD 112 million emerge by 2038, while trade flows totalling USD 119 million disappear (compared with a forecast that does not take the extensive margin into account). Half of the trade flows that constitute this development are very small in volume, and account for less than USD 50,000. The export structure of dairy products from the individual EU member states is stable and shows only minor changes along the a extensive margin. The quality of the predictions about future exports is ensured by rigorously checking the validity of the selected variables of the econometric models. In chapter 6, the accuracy of the predictions of future EU agri-food exports to Japan made by gravity and CGE models is analysed using an out-of-sample comparison of the predictions of both models with actual exports to Japan in 2018. With regard to aggregated agri-food exports, both models generate statements that are close to the actual exports. For an aggregation of individual agri-food exports of EU countries by agri-food product, both models are more accurate than for an aggregation of exports by country. Variations in the statements of both models concerning actual exports in 2018 are due to differences in the results for exports of fewer products and countries. The changes in exports within the analysed CGE model rarely correspond to the actual changes in exports. The results for dairy products should be noted here, as both models are close to the actual exports of dairy products to Japan with their statements on future exports, and the change in dairy product exports within the CGE model is one of the few product groups that corresponds to the actual changes. Overall, this dissertation contributes to analyses of the impact of the implementation of JEFTA on exports of European dairy products to Japan in important ways. It shows that future exports will focus on cheese products, and that an increase in these exports will largely depend on the development of the tariff quotas granted by Japan. Compared with other agri-food products, the structure of European dairy exports is relatively stable, i.e. EU countries will export almost the same products at the time of full implementation of JEFTA as they export at the beginning of its implementation. Gravity and CGE models are suitable for making statements about future EU agri-food exports to Japan, especially in relation to dairy products.
Technikfolgenabschätzung und Diffusionsforschung in der Landwirtschaft
Beschreibung, Analyse und Weiterentwicklung im Kontext der Einführung Automatisierter Melkverfahren
(2009) Hein, Klaus A.; Grosskopf, Werner
With the fully automatic milking systems (AMS), we have a technique available to perform the milking process largely independent from the dairy farmer for the first time. On German farms we can observe first utilization of this innovation since the mid-nineties. The complexity of technical innovations in farming that is shown in the AMS has led to a higher interest in the subsequent effects of increased mechanization. A concept of a comprehensive analysis of the technological impact for AMS doesn?t exist so far. Further, AMS have not been described in terms of their classification within innovation-theory yet. At the same time, we get the impression that with the adoption process of the AMS technology, limitations of the traditional demand-based theory become obvious in real-ity. Based on this knowledge, we have to confront the agricultural economic research with the task to carefully investigate the explanatory-models for the development, impact and expan-sion of technical advancement as a basis of a technological assessment for AMS. The objec-tive of this thesis is to investigate the diffusion process of innovations in farming following the example of introducing fully automated milking systems on the market. Coming from observations of innovation processes in the context of various models based on innovation and economic theory, certain approaches and methods for the technological assessment in farming will be discussed against the background of theories to analyse technical advancement. The gained insights will be combined in the development of an overall concept for the analysis of the technical impact for fully automated milking systems. Part of the analysis of technical impact for AMS is to capture the motivation of potential users to adopt this new technology in an empirical study. The available results from literature were supplemented by a written survey of 5.210 dairy farms in four German dairy farming areas. The high investment costs of AMS are the main obstacle for this innovation at the moment. Also the associated costs for adaptation of the milking technique as well as the expectation of a high maintenance effort are important arguments from non-adopters against an investment in AMS. Social arguments are on the other hand the main factors for potential adopters in their decision making process. Possible examples are health aspects or the expected flexibility and time saving. Another reason can be found in the pursuit for greater independence from contract workforce. Therefore it can be shown, that even if the relative cost of purchasing AMS is higher than its relative productivity, we still see adoption of the innovative milking technique based on individual benefits. With the introduction of the individual benefit theory in the decision-making process of competitive techniques, it is now possible to explain the diffusion of AMS, even though the adoption of AMS in terms of maximizing profit would have to be rejected in the single case. A further specification of the decision-making factors with regards to personal benefits could be very helpful for ex ante estimations of diffusion processes in agriculture. For the majority of potential users of AMS we can assume that expectations of performance and profit will outweigh the mostly social and economical benefits expected in the long term. This insight is opposed to the expected S-shaped distribution of AMS adopters. Contrary to the present tradition of demand-based diffusion research, for AMS we were able to prove a diffusion process that is determined more by supply-side. Due to the fact of increased com-plexity of innovations in the diffusion processes, where processes are more and more described in terms of industrial coordination, one should give up the onesided emphasis of socio-economical characteristics of potential adopters in favour of a growing supply-oriented diffusion research. Accordingly, we also have to expand future technological assessments specifically on manufacturers of these innovations. All in all, we are not able to explain the diffusion of AMS sufficiently with the concept of factorprice-induced technical change. This is also shown in the fact that in spite of the introduction of AMS, we don?t necessarily use more effective capital in dairy farms. The question, if we can see AMS as a technical advancement from an economical point of view, is therefore dependent on the individual circumstances for their use on dairy farms. In view of the future development we can therefore realize, that we won?t see big changes in the structure of the dairy farms that can be traced back to the introduction of this technology.
Using machine learning for supply and demand predictions in the German milk market
(2023) Baaken, Dominik; Hess, Sebastian
The German milk market is driven by various ongoing trends on both the domestic supply and the international demand side. This results in increasingly volatile prices, as well as increasing production costs, and both risks continue to induce dairy farms going out of business. Therefore market participants have expressed a desire for reliable forecasting tools at the regional level in order to be able to make strategic and operational decisions with greater planning certainty. However, such forecasting models at the farm or regional level do not currently exist or are not publicly available. This dissertation fills this research gap by developing a forecasting model for predicting regional milk production in Lower Saxony. The first of four research chapters, Chapter 3, compares five different Machine Learning (ML) models and a traditional linear regression (OLS) model based on time trends, direct and indirect weather influences, and price events. The ML models show advantages in forecast accuracy, in particular ML methods outperform econometric modelling in predicting non-linear developments induced by investment. Furthermore, differences in the efficiency of the methods are apparent: while comparable estimation approaches achieve similar accuracies, the training speed of the models varies considerably. Chapter 4 presents the relationship between seasonal weather conditions and seasonal milk production. This chapter incorporates the influences of direct and indirect weather conditions as well as time and price trends into the model. A Fixed Effects (FE) estimator is used to model quarterly milk production for a panel dataset from Lower Saxony. The results mainly illustrate the influence of farm decisions on milk production, which is stronger than the influence of weather conditions. Contrary to expectations, the influence of weather conditions during the growing season cannot be significantly demonstrated. Instead, there is a positive effect of warmer and drier weather in almost all quarters except autumn. Chapters 5 and 6 shift the focus to the demand side of the German milk market, examining in particular the sale of raw milk from vending machines. As farmers seek alternative sales channels, on-farm vending machines offer an opportunity for additional income. Chapter 5 develops a forecasting model based on a nationwide survey and the Xtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) algorithm. The model achieves sufficiently accurate values to qualify as a practical tool, allowing indecisive farm managers to input their own values into the model and thus secure their investment decision. The influence of the variables on the prediction is investigated using SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values, indicating that sales of raw milk from vending machines are influenced less by individual marketing measures than by various location factors such as population density, proximity to a city, and location along a road with commuter traffic. It can be concluded that there is additional sales potential if farmers would be allowed to place the vending machine in an optimal location away from the farm. Chapter 6 analyses consumer behaviour through a survey in Germany, using seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) to model willingness to pay (WTP) and frequency of purchase. The results suggest that in this form of marketing, consumers especially value a ‘fair’ price for the producer and are less price-sensitive. On average, customers’ WTP is higher than the current milk price and varies between consumer groups. Consumers with a closer connection to milk production are willing to pay more for raw milk but purchase it less frequently. It also appears that as consumers get older, they are more likely to buy raw milk but are less willing to pay for it. Tailoring marketing activities based on consumer characteristics can increase the efficiency of additional sales channels. Overall, this dissertation demonstrates the potential applications and limitations of ML methods for considering supply and demand in the German milk market. The forecasting models can serve as a potential tool for farmers to better weight strategic and operational decisions, thus contributing to more efficient agriculture.
Village level impacts of trade reform in China
(2011) Kleinwechter, Ulrich; Grethe, Harald
During the past decades, China has carried out ambitious economic reforms. The reforms have resulted in strong economic growth and considerable reductions in poverty. The current situation, however, is also characterised by rising tensions within the country, caused, among others, by rural-urban and inland-coastal disparities. In this situation, rural-urban migration occupies central stage, both for the livelihoods of rural households and for the outcome of further policy reforms. In this context, trade liberalisation for a number of reasons can be expected to play an important role for the future development of poverty and inequality in the country. Against this background, the present work analyses and assesses the impacts of further trade liberalisation efforts on a rural community in south-western China. Recognising the importance of these issues, emphasis is put on poverty, inequality and rural-urban labour migration. Subject of the analysis is a village located in one of the less developed counties of Guizhou province. Thereby, this village level case study aims not only at shedding light on the impacts of future trade reforms on this particular village, but also has the objective of providing more general insights into the mechanisms which are at work when trade policies are brought down to a local level. The study seeks to promote an enhanced understanding of relevant processes in similar settings, allowing for improved assessments in the field of development oriented trade policy analysis. The objectives of the study are achieved by the application of a village computable general equilibrium model embedded into a macro-microsimulation framework. In this framework, aggregate results from a national level CGE study of unilateral trade liberalisation in China are administered as a policy shock to the village model, which offers a highly disaggregated picture of the village economy and allows for a detailed analysis of the impacts of the reform. The village model which is a CGE representation of the village economy forms the core part of the present study. The households which make up the village community are depicted by six representative household groups, each of them represented by an agricultural household model. The six groups stratify the village population by household demographics and income levels, thus distinguishing the households by their migration behaviour and by relative poverty. Each representative household can carry out up to four productive activities: agriculture, formal and informal local off-farm work as well as migration. Agricultural production is modelled with a nested Leontief-Cobb-Douglas technology. Household consumption is represented by a per-capita LES which includes self-consumption of agricultural output, purchased goods as well as leisure. By incorporating the assumption of a perfectly neoclassical village land market, the model makes a step towards the modelling of land rental transactions which take place within the village. The land market links the households together and creates local general-equilibrium effects which greatly affect the outcome of the policy reform. The salient feature of the village model is a novel approach towards the modelling of the households' labour allocation behaviour, and in particular the migration behaviour. The approach takes into account household preferences towards work in different types of employment as well as feedback links between household migration and consumption demand. This is achieved by the assumption of a composite utility function, which defines the behaviour of each household in the model. The composite utility function consists of a consumption utility function, which captures utility created by commodity consumption, and a labour utility function, which allows to account for the utility or disutility associated with the participation in different types of employment. By considering the disutility arising from certain employment options, the current work offers an important contribution to the methodological development of agricultural household and village equilibrium modelling. It provides a modelling framework, which paves the way for similar applications in different settings and opens an interesting field for future applications, which may also extend to levels of higher regional aggregation. At the same time, the model constitutes a highly valuable tool for the analysis of the migration behaviour of rural households under different policy scenarios along the lines of household demographics and income levels. Thereby, the availability of transparent information on socio-economic characteristics of the household groups, the remittances behaviour as well as the disutility connotations of migration offer great support to such efforts. Not least, it allows deriving theoretically sound hypotheses on the migration behaviour of rural households in different policy situations.

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