publ-ohne-podpubl-ohne-podSchmid, Kai DanielSauter, OliverGeiger, Felix2024-04-082024-04-082010-01-202009https://hohpublica.uni-hohenheim.de/handle/123456789/5302Analyzing sample moments of survey forecasts, we derive disagreement and un- certainty measures for the short- and medium term inflation outlook. The latter provide insights into the development of inflation forecast uncertainty in the context of a changing macroeconomic environment since the beginning of 2008. Motivated by the debate on the role of monetary aggregates and cyclical variables describing a Phillips-curve logic, we develop a macroeconomic indicator spread which is assumed to drive forecasters? judgments. Empirical evidence suggests procyclical dynamics between disagreement among forecasters, individual forecast uncertainty and the macro-spread. We call this approach the camp view of inflation forecasts and show that camps form up whenever the spread widens.engMonetary policySurvey forecastsInflation uncertaintyHeterogenous beliefs and expectationsMonetary aggregates330InflationPrognoseThe camp view of inflation forecastsWorkingPaper316225932urn:nbn:de:bsz:100-opus-4158