publ-ohne-podpubl-ohne-podSchmid, Kai DanielSauter, OliverGeiger, Felix2024-04-082024-04-082010-01-202009https://hohpublica.uni-hohenheim.de/handle/123456789/5302Analyzing sample moments of survey forecasts, we derive disagreement and un- certainty measures for the short- and medium term inflation outlook. The latter provide insights into the development of inflation forecast uncertainty in the context of a changing macroeconomic environment since the beginning of 2008. Motivated by the debate on the role of monetary aggregates and cyclical variables describing a Phillips-curve logic, we develop a macroeconomic indicator spread which is assumed to drive forecasters? judgments. Empirical evidence suggests procyclical dynamics between disagreement among forecasters, individual forecast uncertainty and the macro-spread. We call this approach the camp view of inflation forecasts and show that camps form up whenever the spread widens.enghttp://opus.uni-hohenheim.de/doku/lic_ubh.phpMonetary policySurvey forecastsInflation uncertaintyHeterogenous beliefs and expectationsMonetary aggregates330InflationPrognoseWorkingPaper316225932urn:nbn:de:bsz:100-opus-4158