Forschung zur Entwicklungsökonomie und -politik / Research in development economics and policy

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hohpublica.uni-hohenheim.de/handle/123456789/15821

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Comparative advantage of Vietnam's rice sector under different liberalisation scenarios: a policy analysis matrix (PAM) study
(2004) Nguyen, Manh Hai; Heidhues, Franz
The rapidly changing global economic environment and domestic economic reforms in Viet-nam have brought the issue of comparative advantage of the rice sector to the forefront. In recent years, Vietnam has had to compete in an increasingly competitive rice export market. This paper examines the fluctuations in the comparative advantage of Vietnamese rice production based on different scenarios of trade liberalisation and economic reform in Viet-nam. To do this, a Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) was used in conjunction with an econo-metric model. The study involved simulation of a large number of scenarios of trade liberalisation and macroeconomic reform, using variations in a single factor and in a group of factors such as product price and input costs, i.e., the price of imported fertilisers, land, water and labour costs, etc. The empirical results show that in 1998 (the baseline scenario), the comparative advantage in rice was relatively high and that the use of domestic resources ? i.e., land, labour and water ? was efficient in economic terms. The estimated DRC elasticities in respect of the world rice price and the shadow exchange rate in 1998 showed a considerably improved com-parative advantage. The estimated DRC elasticities for land rent, the social costs of labour, the import price of fertilisers and irrigation water charges were small in absolute values indi-cating small and negative impacts on comparative advantage with a rise in these prices. The results of sensitivity analyses revealed that the comparative advantage of rice is very sensitive to changes in its export price. In addition, the exchange rate and land rent are also important determinants of the rice sector?s comparative advantage in Vietnam. Other empirical results show that Vietnam is still likely to retain its comparative advantage in rice production in the next decade; however, its comparative advantage might be seriously affected or even dis-appear entirely if Vietnam is exposed to a number of unfavourable economic conditions simultaneously. The major recommendation of this paper is that production should be diversified, with appropriate agricultural policy support, within a broader framework of macroeconomic transformation and trade liberalisation.
Debt position of developing countries and new initiatives for debt reduction: a panel data fixed effects estimation of the impacts of the HIPC initiatives
(2005) Houssou, Nazaire; Heidhues, Franz
In September 1996, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund launched the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative (HIPC). This initiative was endorsed by 180 governments around the world as an effective and welcome approach to help poor, severely indebted countries reduce debt as a part of the overall poverty reduction strategy. Three years later, the initiative was enhanced to provide for faster, broader and deeper debt relief. Using a panel data fixed effect estimation, this study assesses the achievements of the first and second HIPC initiatives and explores further areas of intervention that might help the HIPCs graduate from debt rescheduling and achieve sustainable growth and poverty alleviation. Despite moderate achievements of the HIPC measures so far, this paper argues in favour of a HIPC III initiative. Much more relief is needed to link debt reduction to poverty alleviation if the expectations raised by the HIPC initiatives are to become reality.
Land titling policy and soil conservation in the uplands of Northern Vietnam
(2008) Dung, Pham Thi My; Saint-Macary, Camille; Keil, Alwin; Zeller, Manfred; Heidhues, Franz
In Vietnam, a quasi private property regime has been established in 1993 with the issuance of exchangeable and mortgageable long term land use right certificates. Using primary qualitative and quantitative data collected in a mountainous district of Northern Vietnam, this paper investigates the role of the land policy in the adoption of soil conservation technologies by farmers. This issue is of crucial importance in the region where population growth and growing market demands have induced farmers to intensify agricultural production. While poverty has been reduced, environmental problems such as soil erosion, landslides, and declining soil fertility have become more severe over the past years. Among the abundant literature on the impact of property rights and formal land titles in developing countries, only a few studies have focused on the adoption of soil conservation technologies: an important element in sustainable development strategies of fragile agro-ecological areas confronted with increasing population densities. Our findings suggest that soil conservation technologies are perceived as being economically unattractive; therefore, most upland farmers continue to practice the prevailing erosion-prone cultivation system. Focusing on agroforestry as one major soil conservation option, we estimate household and plot level econometric models to empirically assess the determinants of adoption. We find that the possession of a formal land title influences adoption, but that the threat of land re-allocations in villages discourages adoption by creating uncertainty and tenure insecurity. We conclude that more efforts are needed from decision-makers to promote and support the adoption of conservation practices and to clarify objectives of the land policy in order to secure land tenure and foster sustainable development in fragile areas.
Linkages between poverty and sustainable agricultural and rural development in the uplands of Southeast Asia
(2008) Zeller, Manfred; Beuchelt, Tina; Fischer, Isabel; Heidhues, Franz
Most of the upland areas of Southeast Asia are characterized by insufficient infrastructure, low productivity in smallholder crop and animal production, mounting environmental problems such as soil and forest degradation and loss of biodiversity, increasing population pressure, and widespread poverty, particular in rural areas. While some upland areas in South East Asia have been experiencing considerable progress during the past twenty years, others have stagnated or even declined with respect to economic, social and environmental objectives of development. The purpose of the paper is to describe major trends regarding sustainable development in the upland areas of selected countries in South East Asia, and review explanatory approaches for the observed trends based on case studies from Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia. The conceptual framework for this paper builds on the critical triangle of sustainable rural development. Here, equity or poverty alleviation, economic growth, and the protection of the environment are the three major policy objectives. We further distinguish three explanatory approaches for land use change and agricultural and rural development. Apart from the market approach and the population approach, we suggest that future studies should focus more on governance issues as a major driving force of land use change. The governance approach appears particularly relevant for upland areas which are often politically and institutionally marginalized. The paper begins with a review of definitions of sustainability, and proceeds with a conceptual analysis of the two-way linkages between poverty and the environment, and poverty and economic growth in rural areas. This is followed by empirical findings from research on agriculture and forestry as the major land uses in upland areas of selected South East Asian countries. Based on the results of different case studies from Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Indonesia, we seek to contrast stories of relative success with those of failure. The paper concludes with implications for rural and agricultural development policies, and suggests future areas of research.
Regional development perspectives in Vietnam: insights from a 2002 provincial social accounting matrix (SAM)
(2004) Heidhues, Franz; Breisinger, Clemens
Growing regional disparities in Vietnam have encouraged plans to extend the national Comprehensive Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategies (CPRGS) to the provincial level. The northern mountainous province of Son La has distinctive development perspectives. It was selected as the site of Vietnam?s planned biggest dam and hydroelectric power plant. Large-scale infrastructure investments are expected to contribute to economic growth and poverty reduction in the region. The impacts of these investments on the regional economy can be assessed with a multiplier model based on a regional social accounting matrix (SAM). In this paper, we present a 2002 SAM for Son La. To shed light on the socioeconomic situation, we review insights from this detailed database. A SAM-based multiplier model is then put forward to examine linkages within the provincial economy and to present first results of demand-side effects of infrastructure investment in the local construction sector.

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