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Institut für Health Care & Public Management

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Browsing Institut für Health Care & Public Management by Person "Bachofer, Robert Paul"

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    The impacts of conflict and climate change on food security and nutrition in Chad
    (2023) Bachofer, Robert Paul; Sousa-Poza, Alfonso
    This dissertation aims at providing an overview of how armed conflict and climate impact food security and nutrition in the African country of Chad. It analyzes the impacts of the Boko Haram insurgency on food security and nutrition, and those of annually recurrent droughts on households’ coping strategies. Placing the Republic of Chad in the context of the administrative regions of surrounding countries, where Boko Haram and its splinter groups operated at the time of their greatest territorial expansion (Extreme Nord in Cameroon, Lac in Chad, and Diffa in Niger, as well as the Nigerian states of Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa), it covers the timeframe from late 2009 to 2016. On the qualitative side, a systematic literature review on the impacts of Boko Haram on food security and related concepts in the study area, a review of conflict databases and press coverage of Boko Haram’s activities, and semi-structured interviews of Chadian security experts help to locate where and when the insurgency was active, the violence it perpetrated, and the impacts it had. On the quantitative side, the thesis leverages DHS data of 1997 and 2010, MICS data of 2000 and 2015 for childhood malnutrition indicators. The 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016 ENSA waves are used for household food security indicators. Across the broader Lake Chad region, Boko Haram activity led to the displacement of food producers, interruption of migration routes of pastoralists, increased exposure to cattle rustling, and transport restrictions affecting food markets. It is also associated with changes in trade routes and border closures leading to price fluctuations, market closure and decrease in market activity, reduction in smallholder farmers’ income, and curbing physical access of consumers to food markets due to the destruction of infrastructure and security concerns. These factors contributed to increases in wasting, stunting, and child mortality rates, decreases in school enrolment and years of schooling, and limitations in access to health care. On the macroeconomic level, agricultural output, GDP, and other development indicators have been affected negatively. However, on the micro level, many studies focus on the insurgency’s impacts on displacement, in the form of refugees and IDPs within specific camps. These populations struggle with their loss of agro-pastoralist livelihoods, and with limited access to land and water to sustain them. Coupled with low employment rates, this results in low income across camps. However, whether this results in lack of food availability and diversity differs significantly from camp to camp, and access to health, education, and other basic service is highly unequally distributed as well. Concerningly, trading food for sex is a practice in at least some camps. Centering in on Chad itself, the thesis exploits the fact that Boko Haram perpetrated only criminal but not political violence between 2010 and 2014. During this period, insurgents plundered and pillaged Chadian villages in the seasonal wetlands of Lake Chad, and committed other criminal acts, but did not engage Chadian security forces for political gains; hence, this setup allows to isolate the impacts that terrorist organizations can achieve through purely criminal violence. Applying a DID approach, the dissertation finds that such criminal violence causes deteriorations in the z-scores of underweight and wasting of children under the age of five years by -0.085 points and -0.305 points, respectively. It finds that the insurgency’s criminal violence causes a decrease of 31.7 percentage points in the participation of households in agricultural activities and a decrease of their dietary diversity by 53.7 points. These impacts are large, especially considering that criminal violence perpetrated by Boko Haram in Chad received little to no international attention. The impacts of seasonal drought on food security, however, are much more measured. Out of five coping strategies assessed, seasonal drought has impacts to a statistically significant degree on only two: The prevalence of households selling non-productive assets and the prevalence of using their savings increases by 7.1 percentage points and 7.6 percentage points, respectively, when drought exposure increases by 1 percentage point on a low administrative level. Estimates of heterogeneous treatment effects and other robustness tests support a causal interpretation of these coefficients, which are obtained through two-way fixed effect estimations. These findings do not mean that drought-affected households do not enact other coping strategies, too. It merely means that seasonal drought likely causes them to use only two very specific coping strategies, but it does not cause the use of others.