Hohenheim discussion papers in business, economics and social sciences

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hohpublica.uni-hohenheim.de/handle/123456789/15826

Browse

Now showing 1 - 6 of 6

Bidirectional relationship between investor sentiment and excessreturns : new evidence from the wavelet perspective
(2015) Marczak, Martyna; Beißinger, Thomas
This paper sheds new light on the mutual relationship between investor sentiment and excess returns corresponding to the bubble component of stock prices. We propose to use the wavelet concept of the phase angle to determine the lead–lag relation between these variables. The wavelet phase angle allows for decoupling short– and long–run relations and is additionally capable of identifying time–varying comovement patterns. By applying this concept to excess returns of the monthly S&P500 index and two alternative monthly US sentiment indicators we find that in the short run (until 3 months) sentiment is leading returns whereas for periods above 3 months the opposite can be observed.
Competitiveness at the country-sector level : new measures based on global value chains
(2018) Beißinger, Thomas; Marczak, Martyna
We propose the so-called domestic “embodied unit labor costs” (EULC) at the country-sector level as a new cost-related basis for measures of international competitiveness. EULC take into account that a sector’s labor costs constitute only a small share of its total cost which to a large extent consist of expenses for inter- mediate goods from other sectors. In line with a simple Leontief-type model, the proposed measure is constructed as a weighted average of unit labor costs of all do- mestic sectors contributing to the final goods of a specific sector. The contribution is expressed in value-added terms and takes global supply chains into account. We also show how EULC can be consistently calculated for sectoral aggregates such as the tradable goods sector. Based on EULC we propose the “embodied real effec- tive exchange rate” (EREER) at the country-sector level as a new competitiveness indicator where the relevance of trading partners is quantified by an appropriate value-added measure. The chosen value-added concept replaces gross exports tra- ditionally used as the weight basis in effective exchange rates. Using the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) we employ the proposed indicators to shed new light on changes in cost competitiveness at the sectoral level for Germany, and compare the empirical evidence with selected other euro area countries.
Divergence in labour force growth : should wages and prices grow faster in Germany?
(2020) Marczak, Martyna; Hellier, Joël; Beißinger, Thomas
We develop a model which shows that wages, prices and real income should grow faster in countries with low increase in their labour force. If not, other countries experience growing unemployment and/or trade deficit. This result is applied to the case of Germany, which has displayed a significantly lower increase in its labour force than its trade partners, except in the moment of the reunification. By assuming that goods are differentiated according to their country of origin (Armington’s hypothesis), a low growth of the working population constrains the production of German goods, which entails an increase in their prices and in German wages. This mechanism is magnified by the low price elasticity of the demand for German goods.Hence,the German policy of wage moderation could severely constrain other countries’ policy options. The simulations of an extended model which encompasses offshoring to emerging countries and labour market imperfections suggest that (i) the impact of differences in labour force growth upon unemployment in Eurozone countries has been significant and (ii) the German demographic shock following unification could explain a large part of the 1995-2005 German economic turmoil.
Offshoring and labour market reforms : modelling the German experience
(2015) Hellier, Joël; Beißinger, Thomas; Chusseau, Nathalie
A usual interpretation of the high performance of the German economy since 2005 is that the Hartz labour market reforms have boosted German competitiveness, resulting in higher exports, higher production and lower unemployment. This explanation is at odds with the sequence of observed facts. We propose and model an alternative scenario in which offshoring explains the gains in competitiveness but increases unemployment and inequality, and the subsequent labour market reforms lower unemployment by lessening the reservation wage and expanding the non-tradable sector. The model replicates the developments of the German economy since 1995: 1) Germany offshores more intensively than other advanced countries; 2) The increase in competitiveness and in the exports/production ratio occurs before the implementation of the labour market reform, and this comes with both higher inequality and higher unemployment; 3) The implementation of the reform reduces unemployment, but also decreases the exports/production ratio and increases inequality. The model also predicts that the reduction in unemployment in Germany would have occurred without the Hartz reforms, but later and less intensively. We finally discuss the possible extension of this ‘strategy’ to other Eurozone countries, and alternative policies that activate similar mechanisms without increasing inequality.
Technical change, task allocation, and labor unions
(2022) Marczak, Martyna; Beißinger, Thomas; Brall, Franziska
We propose a novel framework that integrates the task approach" for a more precise production modeling into the search-and-matching model with low- and high-skilled workers, and wage setting by labor unions. We establish the relationship between task reallocation and changes in wage pressure, and examine how skill- biased technical change (SBTC) affects the task composition, wages of both skill groups, and unemployment. In contrast to the canonical model with a fixed task allocation, low-skilled workers may be harmed in terms of either lower wages or higher unemployment depending on the relative task-related productivity profile of both worker types. We calibrate the model to the US and German data for the periods 1995-2005 and 2010-2017. The simulated effects of SBTC on low-skilled unemployment are largely consistent with observed developments. For example, US low-skilled unemployment increases due to SBTC in the earlier period and decreases after 2010.
The impact of temporary agency work on trade union wage setting : a theoretical analysis
(2015) Baudy, Philipp; Beißinger, Thomas
Focusing on the cost-reducing motive behind the use of temporary agency employment, this paper aims at providing a better theoretical understanding of the effects of temporary agency work on the wage-setting process, trade unions’ rents, firms’ profits and employment. It is shown that trade unions may find it optimal to accept lower wages to prevent firms from using temporary agency workers. Hence, the firms’ option to use agency workers may affect wage setting also in those firms that only employ regular workers. However, if firms decide to employ agency workers, trade union wage claims will increase for the (remaining) regular workers. An intensive use of temporary agency workers in high-wage firms may therefore be the cause and not the consequence of the high wage level in those firms. Even though we assume monopoly unions that ascribe the highest possible wage-setting power to the unions, the economic rents of trade unions decline because of the firms’ option to use temporary agency work, whereas firms’ profits may increase.

Browse

Browsing Hohenheim discussion papers in business, economics and social sciences by Person "Beißinger, Thomas"