Browsing by Person "Berger, Thomas"

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Agent-based modeling of climate change adaptation in agriculture : a case study in the Central Swabian Jura
(2014) Troost, Christian; Berger, Thomas
Using the MPMAS multi-agent software, the present thesis implements an agro-economic agent-based model to analyze climate change adaptation of agricultural production in the Central Swabian Jura. It contributes to the DFG PAK 346 FOR 1695 research projects dedicated to improve the understanding of processes that shape structure and functions of agricultural landscapes in the context of climate change at regional scale. In the context of this example, this thesis discusses, develops and tests novel approaches to deal with four notorious challenges that have so far hampered the empirical use of agent-based models for applied economic analysis: data availability, process uncertainty, model validity and computational requirements. The model is used to examine climatic effects on agriculture, changes in agricultural price responses and biogas support and agri-environmental policies illustrating the applicability of the model to adaptation analysis. The first part of the thesis is dedicated to a methodological discussion of the use of mathematical programming-based multi-agent systems, such as MPMAS, for the analysis of agricultural adaptation to climate change. It synthesizes knowledge about the potential impacts of climate change and processes of farmer adaptation and reviews existing agent-based models for their potential contribution to adaptation analysis. The major focus of the first part is a discussion of available approaches to model validation, calibration and uncertainty analysis and their suitability for the use with mathematical programming-based agent-based models. This discussion is based on four principles required to ensure the validity of conclusions drawn from modeling studies: (i) a transparent model documentation, (ii) that the invariant elements of the model can really be expected to be invariant between scenarios assessed, (iii) that empirical calibration of the model is limited to the extent warranted by available observation and knowledge about the expected error distribution, and (iv) that the effect of process uncertainty on the conclusions is evaluated and communicated. Based on these conclusions, generic extensions of the MPMAS toolbox are developed to allow the application of suitable approaches for validation and uncertainty analysis. The second part of the thesis describes the application of the newly developed methodology in the construction and use of the Central Swabian Jura model. The model focuses on an endogenous representation of heterogeneity in agent behavior, an empirical parameterization of the model, and an incorporation of climate effects on possible crop rotations and suitable days for field work besides the expected effects on yields. It extends the demographic, investment and land market components of MPMAS to improve the simulation of structural change over time. The model was used to analyze potential effects of climate change adaptation on agricultural production and land use in the study area. The results show that besides effects on yields also other climate change-induced effects on the conditions of agricultural production may have important impacts on land use decisions of farmers and deserve more attention in climate change impact analysis. Potential impacts of changes in the time slots suitable for field work and an additional rotation option are predicted to be comparable to the impact of the changes in yields predicted by a crop growth model. Results point to an expansion of wheat and silage maize areas at the expense of barley areas. The partial crowding out of summer barley by wheat area held for current price relations and is less strong at higher relative prices for summer barley. Price response analysis indicated that winter wheat production enters into a substitutive relationship with summer barley production under climate change conditions, while competition with winter barley area diminishes. This leads also to a higher elasticity of the wheat area with respect to relative summer barley prices. The model was then used to analyze biogas support through the Renewable Energy Act (EEG) and the support for grassland extensification and crop rotation diversification through the MEKA scheme. Especially simulated participation in crop rotation diversification is strongly reduced in the climate change scenarios, while the investments in biogas plants are slightly increased. The conditions established by the latest EEG revision imply that further development of biogas capacity will crucially depend on the existence of demand for excess process heat, because the alternative option of using high manure shares seems to be rather unattractive for farmers in the area according to the simulation results.
Agent-based modeling of human-environment interactions in a smallholder agricultural system in the Atlantic Forest (Ribeira Valley, SP, Brazil)
(2021) Munari, Lucia Chamlian; Berger, Thomas
Shifting cultivation systems (SCSs) have been practiced all over the tropics for centuries as the primary subsistence strategy for smallholders. However, since the mid-20th century, SCSs have been submitted to changes, driven by a combination of geographic, economic, socio-political, and demographic factors. Consequently, land use changes lead to agricultural intensification and the replacement of more profitable and permanent practices. The implementation of forest conservation policies (FCPs) is one of the changing drivers to SCSs. They have been designed to reduce or eliminate it, criminalize traditional practices, restrict resources access, displace locals, and increase inequalities and land conflicts. In Brazil, SCSs have been practiced by smallholders and indigenous groups, including Quilombolas, descendants of African enslaved who rebelled against the Portuguese regime. After the abolition of slavery, they remained spread over the country without any state legitimation. Their recognition and rights to ancestors land were possible only in 1988, with the Brazilian Constitution. The Ribeira Valley (Southeastern Brazil) is home to dozens of Quilombos, one of the most significant Atlantic Forest remnants, and high biodiversity. Its first Quilombos were formed in the 18th century and relied on SCS to survive, relatively isolated, up to the 1950s. However, in the context of SCS changes, Quilombos are under a transitional process in different dimensions, including constraints to their traditions by FCPs, generating conflicts. Inspired by this challenging scenario, the Thesis goals are to evaluate Quilombolas’ socioeconomic conditions and the perception of FCPs implementation and integrate two modeling tools. The tools will model the impact of agricultural transitions on family wealth, income, landscape structure, and tree community β diversity and model the impact of FCPs over the equal economic and ecological dimensions. Socioeconomic data were gathered in 2017 in 14 communities through interviews of 164 farmers. Quilombolas’ perception of FCPs and constraints for agricultural practice were investigated. The modeling implementation used MPMAS (Mathematical Programming-based Multi-Agent Systems) to simulate land use change in agriculture and forestry. MPMAS was integrated (through land use maps) with a Generalized Dissimilarity Modeling tool (GDM) to predict beta diversity as a function of environmental variation. The modeling exercise was implemented for Pedro Cubas territory, a Quilombo with 52 households located in Eldorado (SP). A combination of primary and secondary data from different sources was used, including a socioeconomic census of 2014 and a collection of tree data in 2016. Five economic/political scenarios were created for comparisons, with a baseline and four different counterfactual situations, varying in market access and FCPs versions. Seven yield curve scenarios and 30 Sobol’ repetitions were combined, totalizing 1050 simulations. A tradeoff analysis was applied over the political scenarios. MPMAS sensitivity/uncertainty analyses revealed variation on staples consumptions among yield curve scenarios, the sensitivity of income to different parameters, and each income source relevance. The GDM calibration highlighted the importance of climate predictors for tree species, indicating vulnerability to potential climate variability. Results revealed that only 32% of the families were practicing SCS in 2017, but it was still relevant for food security. 83% of the interviewees were unsatisfied with the FCPs, especially the timing of issuing the licenses for SCS. The political scenarios comparison indicates that agricultural intensification caused an improvement in average income. Still, it was accompanied by economic inequality, diminished rotation of plots, lower diversity of habitats, and a less permeable landscape structure (on fallows and because of the emergence of pasture and perennial areas). GDM results showed a significant change in landscape structure/tree community for at least 10% of the territory in the last decades. Regarding FCPs implementation, scenario comparison showed that well-being conditions improved when FCPs were excluded, although more ecological impacts occur. However, such effects refer to only 2.6% of the territory where 90% is covered by mature forest, and GDM indicates that the total ß diversity would not be significantly affected. The tradeoff analysis showed that FCPs are significant for conservation in the present context when perennials and pasture areas occur. In the isolated scenario case, when SCS is the only economic activity, a combination of good well-being and conservation performances was found, suggesting it is causing even lower environmental impacts. I recommend more flexible policies for SCS implementation in the Quilombos in general, for the potential of improving well-being conditions by impacting a small share of the territories. FCPs flexibilization would be even more relevant to the communities that don’t have access to alternatives to SCS.
Agent-based simulation modeling for analysis and support of rural producer organizations in agriculture
(2014) Latynskiy, Evgeny; Berger, Thomas
Development of smallholder agriculture is widely recognized as an important pathway to poverty reduction in rural areas, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Many researchers propose collective action of smallholder farmers by means of rural producer organizations (RPO) as a promising opportunity to improve commercialization and market access of small farms, which in turn will result in improvement of rural livelihoods. However, little is known about the determinants of RPO success. Currently, there is a broad demand for detailed analyses of RPO performance and for ex-ante assessments of the developmental interventions and policies of RPO support. This thesis focuses on the provision of high-resolution quantitative data for the design of such interventions using a case study of coffee producers in the lake-shore Uganda and their RPO. This work demonstrates the effective ways to increase farmers’ welfare through the network of RPO and analyzes the associated risks and opportunities. This work applies agent-based computer simulation to analyze the RPO. Designed virtual simulation experiments assess the broad portfolio of development interventions and economic scenarios that are challenging to investigate by means of real-world empirical research. The agent-based nature of the model allows for a holistic integration of several modeling concepts in the developed model application. This leads to the inclusion into the model of a number of important aspects of the bio-economic system of coffee production in Uganda. The first aspect is the heterogeneity among farming households, reflected by differences in natural conditions, resource endowments, production and market constraints, time and consumption preferences. The second aspect is the inseparability of decisions that are taken on the farm (i.e. investment, production, consumption and marketing) from one another. The third aspect is human-environment interaction cycles and the dynamics of the bio-economic system, including interactions across levels of hierarchy (here: individual farmers and RPO). The constructed model is parameterized, calibrated and validated using the empirical data from project and country-level surveys. The set-up of the model and the results of simulation experiments are further complemented by (i) a detailed review of relevant literature, (ii) community-based participatory research with members of RPO and (iii) interviews with key informants. Results of simulation experiments indicate that RPO activities can cause significant increases in members’ sales revenues and consequently can improve their household incomes. The posvitive impacts of RPO can be amplified through external assistance. Recommended RPO-level interventions include (i) on-the-spot payments for RPO members’ transactions and (ii) support for group certification. Both are expected to have high cost efficiency and a low risk of failure. In addition, results of this thesis suggest that improvement of agricultural productivity through the provision of quality planting material and the promotion of good agricultural practices is likely to be highly beneficial for the rural households. In order to stream the related development policies to smallholder farmers it is recommended to use RPO networks. Findings of the participatory research in Ugandan RPO indicate that the establishment of transparent rules of reception of RPO services and allocation of earned benefits, together with frequent and formal reporting of RPO administration might increase members’ cooperation within an RPO. This thesis also shows the vulnerability of coffee producing households and their RPO to the risks imposed by the volatility of agricultural prices. The role of development policy is, therefore, to provide price risk insurance for smallholder farmers and to facilitate the formation of accurate price expectations. However, viable and sustainable models of smallholder risk insurance are yet to be found.
Assessing alternative options to improve farming systems and to promote the adoption of low-carbon agriculture in Mato Grosso, Brazil
(2018) Carauta, Marcelo; Berger, Thomas
Currently, our society faces a significant challenge to eradicate hunger and poverty while preserving natural resources and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this context, Brazil plays an important role since it is one of the most significant players in global food production and hosts a variety of ecosystems and a significant share of the Earths biodiversity. The federal state of Mato Grosso (MT) is located at the most dynamic agricultural frontier in the Cerrado-Amazon transition zone and leads the national production of grain, fiber, and meat. The need to balance agricultural production and environmental protection shifted the focus of Brazilian land-use policy toward sustainable agriculture. The federal government pledged to reduce its GHG emissions and implemented policies to enforce it. Brazils low-carbon agricultural plan offers credit with low-interest rate to farmers who want to implement sustainable agriculture practices. These include the restoration of degraded pasture, adoption of integrated systems, no-till agriculture, biological nitrogen fixation, commercial forests, treatment of animal wastes, and climate change adaptation. The present thesis contributed to the CARBIOCIAL project (“Carbon-optimized land management strategies for southern Amazonia”), a German-Brazilian cooperation to investigate viable carbon-optimized land management strategies maintaining ecosystem services under changing climate conditions in the Southern Amazon. In this context, this thesis examines options to improve farming systems in MT and evaluates policy measures that could promote the adoption of low-carbon agricultural systems. The work is divided into three parts: The first part is subdivided into three chapters (chapters 1, 2 and 3) and offers an overview on land use change in Brazil and explores land use decisions of farmers in MT, where highly dynamic double-crop systems currently prevail. The second part is subdivided into two chapters (chapters 4 and 5) and is dedicated to evaluating alternative options to improve farming systems in MT. The third part is subdivided into three chapters (chapters 6, 7 and 8) and investigates factors that may influence farmers to adopt IAPS, evaluates policy measures to promote the adoption of low-carbon agricultural systems, and provides a detailed quantification of individual GHG emissions of a large variety of agricultural practices and the aggregate emissions resulting from their current use in MT. To this end, this thesis develops an Integrated Assessment (IA) approach that simulates farm-level decision-making and agricultural land use change. It introduces a novel approach to evaluate the full distribution of GHG emissions related to the agricultural land-use change in MT. Our IA approach integrates three software packages: MPMAS (Mathematical Programming-based Multi-Agent Systems), MONICA (Model for Nitrogen and Carbon in Agro-ecosystems) and CANDY (Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics). Data to parameterize the model was gathered from several sources, such as field experiments, statistical offices, farm level surveys from private consultancies, life-cycle inventory databases, extension services, expert interviews, and literature. This thesis presents the first extensive study on crop yield response in MT by simulating yields in response to different climatic conditions, soil types, sowing dates, crop rotation schemes, fertilization amounts, and macro-regions. The simulation results show that biophysical constraints still play a crucial role on yield gaps in MT whereas socio-economic constraints have a slight yield-increasing effect. This thesis further examines alternative ways to improve the farming systems in MT by investigating the role of sunflower adoption in increasing farm income. We have found a substantial potential for sunflower cultivation in MT with positive impacts on both farm and regional level. Additionally, we identified bottlenecks for sunflower diffusion such as the distance from farm gate to processing facility. Regarding Brazilian agricultural policy, we have found that the Brazilian low-carbon agricultural program contributed to the adoption of integrated systems. However, we observed different adoption rates through macro-regions and types of integrated systems. Furthermore, our simulations additionally show that the ABC program also contributed to the adoption of less GHG-emitting practices, but its performance is subjected to agent expectations on prices and yields
Climate change and agricultural structural change : the relevance for machinery use and acquisition in Germany
(2021) Mendoza Tijerino, Francisco Antonio; Berger, Thomas
This thesis is a contribution to the research project “Regional Climate Change,” funded by the German Research Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, DFG – Forschergruppe 1695 Regionaler Klimawandel). The projects objective was to learn about the vulnerability and sensitivity of typical land systems in Southwest Germany and identify suitable strategies for adaptation. The doctoral work contributes with empirical and methodological insights of farmers likely management adaptations in light of the farm managerial challenges arising from climate and structural change in Germany. The agricultural structure in Germany has strongly changed in the last 60 years. Where before numerous small-scale and labor-intensive farms were observed, it is now the place where fewer and highly mechanized farms contribute to agricultural production. The ongoing agricultural structural change in Germany is characterized by a trend in which many farms exit the agricultural sector, and the remaining --growth-oriented-- farmers take over the land, reorganize their farm business, and expand their operations. Nevertheless, this trend of farm growth, which is expected to continue in the future, poses significant challenges at the farm management level: Decisions on machinery use and acquisition play a crucial role in shaping the farm cost structure, and represent a critical element for maintaining competitiveness. Particularly for the expansion efforts, farm managers face a highly complex decision-making process to acquire the proper machinery capacities for field operations. Moreover, an additional factor will need to be considered for adequate decision-making: Climate change developments and the uncertainties associated with this process will likely increase the complexity of the farmers decision-making regarding the best reorganizational strategies towards farms expansion. Changes in the natural conditions for crop growth and development will likely result in management adaptations, e.g., changing the timing for fieldwork operations or changing land-use patterns. An analysis of the complex interactions and interdependencies between the environment and the farm system, on the one hand, and the resources and production possibilities available to the farm manager in the course of farm expansion on the other hand, require adequate tools of analysis. This work analyzes three dimensions of farm machinery management in the context of climate change and agricultural structural change. The first element of analysis corresponds to an examination of the sensibility of land-use and machinery investment decisions to climate change scenarios with the agent-based MPMAS model constructed for Central Swabian Jura in Southwest Germany. The Central Swabian Jura MPMAS model is a constitutive part of the bioeconomic modeling system MPMAS_XN. The MPMAS_XN system integrates the agricultural economic agent-based software MPMAS and the plant-soil modeling software Expert-N (XN) into a fully coupled system. The assessment of the sensibility and responsiveness of the MPMAS component revealed complex adaptation responses of land-use and machinery investment decisions as a result of shifted timing in fieldwork operations (e.g., harvesting or fertilization tasks). The second element of analysis corresponds to an examination of economies of size arising from farm machinery use and acquisition decisions in arable farms that follow a typical crop rotation practiced in Germany. For the analysis, a whole-farm multiperiod mathematical program implemented in the agent-based software MPMAS was employed. Optimizations were run and evaluated at a broad range of farm sizes and two distinctive distributions of availability of fieldwork days estimated for Southwest Germany. The results allowed observing patterns of optimal farm machinery demand and cost curves for several evaluated farm sizes and distributions of available fieldwork days distributions. The third main element of this work corresponds to a methodological contribution to the MPMAS_XN model system. Within this element, the implementation, functioning, and potential of an external theory-based MPMAS module are presented. The external module represents dynamics for joint machinery investments among simulated farm agents and serves as an enhancing methodological contribution for analyzing and representing farm machinery management in the agent-based software MPMAS.
Climate variability, social capital and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa : household level assessment of potential impacts and adaptation options
(2015) Assfaw, Tesfamicheal Wossen; Berger, Thomas
Climate variability and poor distribution of rainfall often causes serious agricultural production losses and worsens food insecurity. Given that the direct effects of climate change and variability are transmitted through the agricultural sector, improving farm households capacities to adapt to the adverse effects of climate-related shocks is an important policy concern. This thesis applied a stochastic Agent-based Model (ABM) that is capable of simulating the effects of different adaptation options by capturing the dynamic changes of climate and prices, as well as the dynamic adaptive process of different farm households to the impacts of these changes. The agent-based simulations conducted in this thesis address the special challenges of climate and price variability in the context of small-scale and subsistence agriculture by capturing non-separable production and consumption decisions, as well as the role of livestock for consumption smoothing. To ensure the reliability and usefulness of results, the model was validated with reference to land-use and overall poverty levels based on observed survey values. In particular, the study used disaggregated socio-economic, price, climate and crop yield data to quantify the impacts of climate and price variability on food security and poverty at the household level. Furthermore, the study explicitly captured crop-livestock interactions and the “recursive” nature of livestock keeping when examining the effects of climate and price variability. The thesis additionally examined how specific adaptation strategies and policy interventions, especially those related to the promotion of credit, improved seed varieties, fertilizer subsidy and off-farm employment, affect the distribution of household food security and poverty outcomes. In addition to impacts on household food security and poverty, the study further considered indirect impacts through changes in the price of agricultural inputs and livestock holding. In terms of coping strategies, the simulation results in this thesis show that the effects of climate and price variability on consumption are considerable, but smaller for those households with relatively large livestock endowments. In addition, the study also found that farm households with a large plantation area of eucalyptus were able to cope with the effects of variability. Therefore, our results suggest that self-coping strategies are important but not sufficient and should be complemented with appropriate policy interventions. In terms of policy interventions, the study found that policy intervention through the expansion of credit and fertilizer subsidy along with innovation through the promotion of new crop varieties that are resilient and adapted to local conditions are the most effective adaptation options for the case of Ethiopia. In addition, the simulation results underscore that adaptation strategies composed of a portfolio of actions (such as credit and fertilizer subsidy along with new technologies) are more effective compared to a single policy intervention. For Ghana, the study suggests that if expansion of production credit is complimented by irrigation, it can provide a way to achieve food security under climate and price variability. In order to design a best-fit intervention instead of a ‘one size fits all’ approach, it is important to capture the distribution of effects across locations as well as households. The great strength of this study is its agent-based nature, which enables exploration of how effects are distributed across farm households. The simulation results clearly show that poor farms are vulnerable to climate and price variability, under which they suffer food insecurity, while a small group of wealthy farms are better off due to higher prices achieved when selling crops. The result from this thesis further underscores the need for improving adaptive capacity, as a large proportion of farm households are unable to shield themselves against the impacts of price and climate variability. In what follows, the study further applied standard micro-econometric techniques to examine the role of social capital and informal social networks on consumption insurance and adoption of risk mitigating land management practices. In particular, the thesis provides evidence of the effects of different dimensions of social capital on the adoption of soil and water conservation practices across households holding different levels of risk-aversion. The results of the study underscore that social capital plays a significant role in enhancing the adoption of improved farmland management practices and suggests that the effect of social capital across households with heterogeneous risk taking behaviour is different. Finally, by combining household panel data, weather data, self-reported health shocks and detailed social capital information, the last section is able to analyze how social capital buffers some of the implications of weather shocks.
Effects of agricultural commercialization on land use and pest management of smallholder upland farms in Thailand
(2016) Grovermann, Suthathip; Berger, Thomas
Over recent years, economic development, policy changes, new technologies and population growth have been motivating farmers in Thailand to intensify and commercialize their production activities. As part of this agricultural commercialization and intensification process, Thai upland farmers have adapted their farming practices to increase crop production and productivity levels. This thesis clearly demonstrates that there is a positive relationship between land use intensification/commercialization and the use of chemical-based pest management activities, i.e. farmers have increasingly relied on the use of chemicals for the protection of their crops. As part of the agricultural intensification and commercialization process, concerns about the potentially negative impact of pesticide use is often downplayed, while the benefits of pesticide use in terms of improved crop returns ignore the indirect costs they also incur. This has also led to a situation in which local farmers do not always use pesticides in an appropriate way; they tend to overuse and misuse the chemicals, to avoid losses among their high-value crops. Due to farmers’ limited awareness of and lack of protection against the potential dangers inherent in chemical pesticide use, they still use pesticides which contain cheap compounds such as the herbicides Paraquat and Glyphosate. The application of these chemicals is restricted in a number of other countries, but these represent two of the three most commonly used pesticides in the study area. The survey described here sought to provide evidence that agricultural commercialization in Thailand over recent years has led to a reduction in the variety of pest management practices applied, and that many Thai farmers have become completely dependent on the use of agrochemicals, expecting that this approach will fully prevent any losses in crop yields. In this context, it can be observed that farmers have become locked into using chemical pest control methods, creating a situation in which attempting to control one risk through the increasingly heavy and exclusive use of pesticides, has led to a number of other, new risks developing. This research also reveals that market prices, pests and diseases have become the dominant risks affecting farm performance within the Thai commercial farm sector, while among Thai subsistence farmers the loss of family labor is of key concern. The farmers in the study area have a variety of attitudes towards risk, and differences in expected rates of return influence the types of risk protection tools used. The findings show that agricultural commercialization is associated with a rapid adoption of synthetic pesticides and an exponential growth in the quantity of pesticides applied per hectare. As the risk management strategies used by commercial farmers are mostly aimed at crop protection, they use large quantities of synthetic pesticides to manage crop pests and diseases. The present research also finds that the effectiveness of pesticide use increases significantly as levels of commercialization increase. Pesticide use is perceived as increasingly useful in this process, being considered an essential factor for raising agricultural output and farm income. However, there is a need to pay more attention to the potentially adverse effects of pesticide use on human health and the environment and to improve producers’ level of understanding of the risks involved in pesticide use, which will help them make better decisions regarding the risks and consequences involved. A number of studies have suggested that pesticide regulations in Thailand should be better enforced, that consumer demand for certified products should be encouraged, and that training on food safety should be offered to farmers. The Thai government has reacted to these calls by introducing policies and projects aimed at the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices; however, these policies have not been promoted effectively, and so have not fixed the core problem. The Q-GAP program is a good example of this. This thesis reveals that Thai upland farmers still do not understand the logic behind the program introduced, and so lack any motivation to follow sustainable farming practices. This situation is made worse by the lack of any effective program implementation and follow-up activities, such as farm auditing. The Q-GAP program has been implemented with a strong focus on farm auditing and residue testing, and little focus on the positive consequences of a reduction in pesticide use levels. The program also does not provide farmers with suitable alternatives to manage their pest problems. Certified farmers continue to almost entirely depend on synthetic pest control. In principle, under the program farmers are encouraged to practice integrated pest management (IPM) methods in order to achieve Q-GAP certification. But it was found that a considerable number of farmers were not familiar with the term IPM and have a limited understanding of the approach. IPM offers alternative pest management methods to farmers and also takes into account traditional pest control methods, not just the use of pesticides. Therefore it could have a positive role to play in helping to reduce pesticide use. However, in reality, the promotion of integrated pest management methods is not enough in isolation. As this thesis shows by means of an ex-ante assessment of pesticide use reduction strategies with the MPMAS simulation package, the use of a combination of measures, such as the promotion of IPM through financial adoption incentives combined with the introduction of a sizeable sales tax on pesticides, could lead to a very substantial reduction in pesticide use – by up to 34% on current levels, without adversely effecting general farm income levels. Thus, policymakers should promote alternative pesticide use reduction strategies by combining pesticide taxation with the introduction of integrated pest management methods, the application of a price premium on safe agricultural produce or the introduction of subsidies for bio-pesticides. Furthermore, there is a need to raise farmers awareness about pesticide risks and to increase investment in the diffusion of integrated pest management practices. Thai upland farmers might be willing to introduce more sustainable agricultural methods if they were to fully understand the consequences of pesticide use on their health and the environment, as well as know more about the biology, behaviors and physiology of the pests themselves. Building knowledge is critical in this regard. To achieve this, there needs to be more interaction between researchers, extension workers and farmers, plus more policy options introduced to support farmers in their transition to a more market-oriented production environment.
Extreme climate shock and locust infestation impacts in Ethiopia : farm-level agent-based simulation of adaptation and policy options
(2022) Ejeta, Alemu Tolemariam; Berger, Thomas
Extreme climate shocks have been a daunting problem for smallholder farmers in Ethiopia for a decade. In recent years, locust invasions in many parts of the country have become another livelihood challenge to the subsistence farming population who already lives in dire livelihood situations. These two compounding shocks can lead to total crop failure at the early crop development stage or any crop growth stage. They are creating a massive economic upheaval in rainfed-dependent countries particularly affecting the well-being of resource-poor subsistence farmers. To reduce the effect of recurring shocks, especially climate risks, farmers have been implementing different risk management strategies. In addition to farmer autonomous adaptation practices, the government has been supporting farmer climate adaptation efforts by designing different policy interventions. In locust-hit areas, government and non-governmental organizations have designed and implemented different locust relief programs aimed at reducing associated welfare losses. Whether farmers can adapt to the effects of climate shocks or not by autonomous adaptation and/or with policy support is an empirical policy question. Moreover, as there are no studies of locust impacts and locust relief programs evaluation, the degree of locust livelihood devastation and the roles of locust relief policy interventions in minimizing the effect of locust shock are policy concerns. To address these important and key empirical questions, this thesis applied a farm-level agent-based simulation model. MPMAS, a modeling framework developed at the University of Hohenheim for agent-based simulations, was applied to capture inseparable production and consumption decisions of subsistence farming households in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. The modeling framework uses a whole-farm mathematical programming modeling approach to represent complex dynamics of farm household decisions where a set of constraints and their complex relationships are considered. This simulation model enables scenario-based policy analysis by comparing different climate, locust, and policy scenarios which is hardly possible using statistical and other reduced forms of econometrics models. Through establishing scenarios, the model helps to disentangle the pathways through which external shocks may affect the well-being of smallholder farmers. MPMAS has been extensively applied for policy simulations in different countries including Ethiopia. This thesis extends previous MPMAS applications in Ethiopia by including new features for Central Rift Valley (MPMAS_CRV). MPMAS_CRV was parameterized from the CIMMYT household survey augmented with CSA datasets and own field research. Smallholder farmers ex-ante considerations of risk management strategies for possible climate shock are explicitly captured in MPMAS_CRV to assess their role in climate adaptation and welfare improvements. As part of enhancing the adaptive capacity of farm households to recurring climate shocks, the effect of policy interventions such as better access to credit services and improved agricultural technology are quantified by establishing climate and policy scenarios. Similarly, the thesis quantified the impact of locust invasions on household welfare outcomes and their response to locust relief interventions including food or cash transfers complemented with inputs and livestock provisions. Locust simulation is one of the novelties of this research as it is the first study to explicitly capture the welfare effects of the desert locust and assess the roles of locust relief programs through the application of MPMAS. To enable climate and locust shock effects quantification and associated policy interventions, different simulation experiments were designed comprised of climate and locust shock frequencies and policy scenarios. The simulation experiments and analysis were performed using the computational resources of bwForCluster within the bwHPC infrastructure in the state of Baden-Württemberg, Germany. Before using MPMAS_CRV for policy simulations, its reliability was validated using land use, livestock holding, and amount of crop sales by comparing simulated against observed survey values. The validation results suggest that MPMAS_CRV can represent and reflect real-world conditions so that it is reliable to use for impact quantification and policy simulations. In addition to empirical validation, the thesis conducted a global uncertainty analysis to check the robustness of the simulation results under different parameter variations and combinations to minimize erroneous policy formulations. Uncertainty analysis results show that the model converges rapidly at 50 repetitions which implies that these model repetitions are enough to cover the model uncertainty space. In terms of extreme climate impacts and adaptations, the simulation results suggest that climate shocks affect the welfare of agents adversely to the extent that they face temporary food shortages, loss of discretionary income, and depletion of livestock assets. The welfare losses are similar for both with and without ex-ante measure scenarios which indicates that farm agents cannot adapt to extreme shocks by employing autonomous adaptations. After the shocks are over, the simulation results reveal that agents cannot recover income and livestock losses immediately even when they consider ex-ante measures in the planning for possible risks. This suggests that for resource-poor farm agents, income and assets recovery takes a longer period after perturbation which can lead to a long-term livelihood crisis and a poverty trap. But, according to the simulation results in this thesis, agents can recover from food shortage immediately after the shocks are over, as meeting minimum food requirements are an absolute priority for agents (which is also true with real-world subsistence smallholder farmers) over other competing goals. Credit and technology policy simulation analysis further depict that welfare losses are partly compensated compared to without policies. Welfare losses of agents are better compensated when credit and technology are used jointly than when they are implemented separately. Similarly, technology policy intervention is better in compensating welfare losses compared to credit policy. Though policy interventions have compensational effects in minimizing the losses, they cannot completely offset the negative effects of extreme climate shocks even when implemented jointly. Disaggregation of simulation results by resource endowments suggests that agents with higher baseline income (without policy) and farm size appeared to be relatively less affected by shocks, and benefit from policy interventions the most. Locust simulation results also suggest that locust shock leads to agent livelihood crisis and makes slower recovery of income and livestock assets rebuild without any relief intervention programs. Simulation of different locust relief policy interventions reveals that combined relief policy interventions appear to be superior in compensating welfare losses compared to individual relief interventions. When food or cash transfer is combined with inputs and assets the welfare losses are considerably reduced compared to the individual policy intervention. When asset recuperation is combined with other relief programs, livestock losses are substantially reduced which signifies the importance of asset support in building an asset base which has long-term benefits. Strengthening early warning systems by including seasonal weather forecasting has paramount importance to prevent the crisis of desert locust plague.
A financial analysis of tree windbreaks as climate smart management strategies for farms in South Africa
(2024) Otto, Lutz-Heiner; Berger, Thomas
South Africa has become warmer over the past six decades, with an average annual temperature increase of 0.12°C per decade between 1901 and 2020. Annual mean temperature in South Africa have risen faster than the observed global average and are more than 1.5°C above the levels that prevailed before the industrial revolution. Especially in the western parts of South Africa, evidence shows that climatic conditions are becoming drier and mean temperatures rise. Higher temperature levels during autumn, winter and summer periods coincide with an increase in drought events and strong winds. Agricultural adaptation to these changes in climate and climate variability requires farm level responses. Windbreaks can be of substantial importance for maintaining ecosystem services of the agricultural landscape, such as crop protection, biomass production, the avoidance of wind erosion, the development of humus in the soil, carbon sequestration and human health benefits. These sometimes indirect benefits come at a cost to the agricultural producers: the abandonment of arable land in favour of windbreak trees. To understand and explain the long-term impacts of windbreaks on farm profitability the costs and benefits are essential. There are no studies on the profitability of tree-based windbreaks in fruit and wine farming in South Africa. Should farmers consider tree-based windbreaks when considering expert-based uncertainty analyses on profitability? In this thesis a financial comparisons of windbreak systems in South African vineyard and orchards was performed, considering only the most tangible effects of windbreaks in these production systems with a rigorous uncertainty analysis. In particular, an investment model was constructed testing the viability of establishing citrus with Casuarina windbreak trees under various wind protection scenarios as well as vineyards with Populus windbreak trees. The empirical approach of this thesis combined interview data with financial modeling under uncertainty, to evaluate the farm-level financial viability of windbreak trees in citrus and wine farming of South Africa. In a first part, the data from on-farm and online interviews was used to understand vineyard and windbreak cost, benefits, management and farmer perceptions. Technical and farm-level data of farming was collected by means of direct on-farm interviews during a field trip in the 2019/2020 season. Further, additional online interviews of farmers collected data on perceived trade-offs and windbreak system designs. Financial analysis was performed by means of discounted cash flow method, discounting yearly gross margins to present values. To move a way from deterministic point estimates only, stochastic elements were brought into the financial analysis. Farmer and expert estimated ranges and distributions were utilized for an uncertainty analysis. To account for direct financial benefits, data from ecophysiological modeling of woody biomass and carbon sequestration of windbreak trees as well as wind protection scenarios were included in the financial model to draw conclusions on farm farm-level profitability. The results of the online farm surveys show that despite the potentially significant benefits of tree wind protection on farms,there are different levels of acceptance of windbreaks on farms in the in South Africa. The reason for this lies in the divergent subjective perception and assessment of wind damage and windbreak benefits. The results of the feasibility analyses of establishing poplar windbreaks as borders to vineyards in the Western Cape Province are as follows: When considering wood chips sales of windbreaks, the cumulative cash flows of such a modeled poplar-vineyards system does not catch up to an open field bench mark. The process of discounting erodes wood chip income which is only generated at the end of a 20 year lifetime. The reason for this may be multifold, with the most obvious being the low wood chip price farmers currently receive. In the case of continuous carbon payments, windbreaks do not accrue enough carbon to be outperform unprotected vineyards when the current price is USD 9 per ton. In this scenario, windbreaks are not harvested, but kept along the vineyards for the entire lifespan. The median per-hectare net present value is USD 3663 per hectare for the open field system, while the net present value including carbon payments is USD 2815 for a vineyard with a single row windbreaks and USD 2307 for a double row vineyard-windbreak system. There is however no doubt that windbreaks impact yields of adjacent orchards. When ignoring yield protection the financial viability of windbreaks may be underestimated. When the assumption is made, that windbreak protect vineyards from yield losses in severe wind years occurring every 5 years, single-row windbreak-vineyard systems outperform unprotected orchards in terms of profitability. The results of the feasibility analyses of establishing windbreaks as bor- ders to citrus orchards in the Western Cape Province are as follows: When the assumption is made, that windbreaks protect orchards from yield losses occurring every fifth year, windbreak designs 1 and design 2 as well as nets outperform open field conditions from an investment appraisal point of view when considering the net present value or the annual annual gross margin. In support of the cost-benefit investment indicators, the stochastic domi- nance analysis also showed that a certain windbreak design may be preferred by the risk-neutral or risk-averse mandarin farmer over open field conditions. Using stochastic dominance analysis, a two-sided windbreak design was found to dominant over all other tree-based windbreaks. In all wind damage frequency scenarios except annual wind damage scenario, the cumulative distribution of this two-sided design remained visually dominant over open field orchards using a second order dominant criterion. The data collected and results of this study suggests that nets have the highest returns, but have by far the highest investment costs, where net establishment costs alone are even higher then orchard establishment costs. The calculated internal rate of return is however well above the current interest rates and farmers may thus be guided by the net present value when basing their investment decisions solely on profitability. Not accounted is the fact that nets may reduce the aesthetics and appeal of landscapes in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. Many fruit and wine farms in South Africa do also engage in tourism, hosting events and accommodating international tourists. The attractiveness of these farms may thus be a relevant objective to farm-level decision-makers. The results of this thesis indicate that tree-based windbreak designs can improve the profitability of orchards and be a dominant investment strategy over open field conditions. This is the first known study in South Africa which quantifies the uncertainties about agronomic windbreak factors influencing the returns. This studies contributes to shedding light on the long-term uncertainties in returns and improves understanding of wind damage reduction by scenario analysis. Ultimately, the the thesis helps to understand and foster adoption of windbreak trees as climate smart adaptation strategy in fruit and wine farming of South Africa.
Investigating climate change perception and expectation formation for the advancement of agent-based models applied to agricultural adaptation assessment
(2019) Eisele, Marius; Berger, Thomas
To inform more realistic representations of farmer decision making in agent-based simulation models applied to agricultural adaptation assessment at the regional scale, the present thesis investigates three areas of central importance for judgments about farm-level reactions to climate change: (i) perception of changes in local weather conditions and expectations about their effects; (ii) reception of signals from the biophysical environment and their interpretation in terms of socially constructed understandings of climate change, farm-level risks, and perceived adaptation capacity; and (iii) the nature of expectation mechanisms involved in the formation of judgments about climatic changes. For this purpose, three types of empirical approaches were used: questionnaire-based surveys conducted with farmers from two study areas in Southwest Germany, the Central Swabian Jura and the Kraichgau; a questionnaire-based comparative study of farmer school students and pre-first-semester undergraduate university students enrolled in study programs related to agriculture without experience in farming and no study experience; and economic lab experiments conducted with farming practitioners (experienced farmers and farmer school students) and university students from agriculture-related study programs with several semesters of study experience. Based on these empirical findings, the following recommendations for the agent-based modeling software MPMAS are derived: (i) agent-specific levels of climate change awareness should be accounted for to reflect the effects of personal experiences with climate change outcomes, social norms and individual-specific learning patterns and coping behavior; (ii) the effects of incomplete information assessment and risk aversion should be reflected in the imputed selection mechanism for climate change response, i.e. for the choice of adaptation measures; and (iii) experimental results should be used to inform modeled expectation mechanisms of agents, currently implemented for judgments about future prices and yields.
Land use change, agricultural intensification and low-carbon agricultural practices in Mato Grosso, Brazil
(2016) Dias Bernardes Gil, Juliana; Berger, Thomas
The process of land use change in Brazil has implications for food security, climate change and socioeconomic development at the local, regional and global levels. Largely driven by agricultural expansion over the past decades, such processes are likely to become even more pronounced in the coming years as Brazil is expected to satisfy a significant share of the global demand for food and energy. In an effort to prevent further forest clearance and associated greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, the Brazilian Federal Government has been promoting agricultural intensification through farming practices able to increase crop and livestock productivity while restoring degraded lands. Particular attention has been dedicated to the beef cattle sector in Mato Grosso state, a globally important center of agricultural production in Southern Amazonia, where some of the highest crop productivity levels contrast with pastures of low average stocking rates. Two agricultural intensification strategies of growing importance in Mato Grosso are pasture to crop conversion (P2C) and integrated crop-livestock-forest systems (IS). While the first is a consequence of cropland expansion on pastures and might continue to happen through expected shifts in the relative profitability of certain commodities, the second entails the adoption of complex management practices and may be conditional on incentives and the existence of a favorable institutional context. Even though the Federal Government has already established policies and programs to promote P2C and IS and relies on both to reduce its total GHG emissions, the level of IS adoption remains low and many aspects of P2C and IS –including the drivers, barriers and impacts associated to their adoption –are poorly understood. This thesis sheds light on some of these uncertainties, elucidating where, how and why P2C and IS happen. Using a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods such as surveys, focus groups, remote sensing, spatial econometrics and agent-based modeling, it seeks a better understanding of the interplay between farmers’ characteristics and preferences, supply chain infrastructure, market conditions and institutional factors, as well as how these may constrain or catalyze specific LUC pathways. Based on these findings, it ultimately compares the impacts of P2C and IS and concludes that the latter may offer greater benefits. The Introduction contextualizes the research questions explored in the subsequent chapters by offering an overview of land use change in Brazil and briefly reviewing the literature on agricultural intensification. The following chapters (2, 3, 4 and 5) form the core of the thesis and correspond to scientific publications developed during the Ph.D. program, all focused on Mato Grosso. Results are analyzed in an integrated manner under Discussion & Conclusion in light of the broader implications of agricultural intensification through P2C and IS, finally leading to policy recommendations. Chapter 2 quantifies P2C and investigates its drivers, revealing that: i) cattle vs. soy profitability and land prices do not fully explain P2C location; ii) land attributes on which classical agricultural development theories are based, may favour P2C but do not fully explain it; and iii) socioeconomic and institutional constraints are important in controlling pasture conversion, including non-productive sources of utility, producers’ perception of contract enforcement, land markets and P2C-related transaction costs. Chapters 3, 4 and 5 are dedicated to IS. Chapter 3 reveals the state-of-the-art of IS and how farmers perceive it, showing that: i) IS were concentrated in less than a third of the counties of Mato Grosso state –most of which were crop-livestock systems (iCL); ii) producers usually adopted one of three iCL strategies; and iii) the strategy choice was correlated with the land use transition undergone by each producer. Building on these findings, chapter 4 examines the determinants of wide-scale IS adoption and assesses the importance of household- and county-level variables, revealing that: i) adopters of iCL systems are better educated and have more access to technical assistance than specialized producers; ii) greater similarity exists between counties with iCL systems and soy-dominant vs. pasture-dominant counties; and iii) the presence of soy and pasture in a county is not a predictor of the occurrence of iCL systems. Finally, chapter 5 employs a bio-economic model that assesses how effective credit provision is in supporting the adoption of low-carbon systems –specifically IS and planted forests. The model simulates future land use changes in Mato Grosso under different credit scenarios and suggests that: i) credit has the potential to prompt greater adoption of IS; and ii) changes in the credit conditions (e.g. interest rates, down payment share and capital requirements) influence rates of IS adoption differently. Most existing studies on land use change in Brazil are limited to the debate between intensification vs. extensification and tend to project the effects of intensification at an aggregate level, overlooking the different drivers and impacts of specific intensification pathways. By exploring the particularities of IS and P2C, this work offers evidence that these are two distinct intensification strategies with widely different impacts – and, thus, should not be treated indistinguishably by policy makers. The merit of this thesis relies not only on its innovative theoretical approach, but also on its multidisciplinary and multi-scale nature. Through the mapping, measurement, description and interpretation of IS and P2C, it provides results able to inform policy making, facilitate the monitoring of existing policies and set the ground for subsequent research.
Linking farm economics and hydrology: Model integration for watershed-level irrigation management applied to Chile
(2010) Arnold, Thorsten; Berger, Thomas
As largest user of fresh water, the agricultural sector must resolve conflict of objectives ranging from economic goals of farmers to societal and environmental targets. Research must deliver tools to manage these objectives simultaneously. Single disciplines have resolved numerous problems with disciplinary solutions. However, problems emerging from interactions and feedbacks between disciplines can only be assessed with interdisciplinary tools and managed by institutions that coordinate across departments. Such complex problems are becoming an epochal task for Natural Resource Management (NRM). A number of modeling tools exist for irrigation management at watershed level that quantify biophysical processes and water quality. Simultaneously, agricultural economics developed production planning methods for allocating water resources optimally. However, integrated planning support tools are not available that take into account both domains and their interactions. Within a larger research project, it was the objective of this Ph.D. project to develop and test methods that integrate two complex modelling softwares for irrigation management. The distributed runoff model WaSiM-ETH quantifies water flows and evapotranspiration. The dynamic land use model MP-MAS is a multi-agent system in which farmers use economic reasoning to derive cropping decisions under given environmental conditions. Furthermore, the MP-MAS software contains the bucket model EDIC, which parameterizes the distribution of water from rivers to individual farmers through the canal system. Finally, the MP-MAS software was extended with a crop yield model with complementary irrigation. Model integration is understood as service provided within a research context. This context is defined by the study region, the project setting and by the strategic decisions within the research project - such as the choice of partner institutions and disciplines. Within the Maule River watershed in Chile (Linares Province, Region VII), the project ?Integrating Governance and Modeling? assessed the use of water in agriculture. Empirical research questions as well as modeling software were also part of this research context. Integration requires the conceptual, the technical and the procedural level. Conceptual integration describes processes and interactions between farmers, the canal system as distribution infrastructure and the natural system. It also describes how farmers plan and produce within this environment. Here, scale-dependent processes like irrigation efficiency or access to water by individuals were scrutinized. Technical integration is the implementation of the conceptual system into source code, e.g. by adapting legacy software, and by creating a software layer for hierarchical coupling of all software components. Procedural integration is the calibration, analysis, error eradication and validation of these models within the research context. Calibration and analysis of integrated model components is a step-by-step procedure. For all relevant processes and interactions, empirical data was first compiled and cross-evaluated. Then, standalone model components were calibrated so that interactions were parameterized as boundary conditions that are consistent across all disciplines. Empirical data pinpointed conceptual inconsistencies in the description of interactions, and standalone models were improved together with project partners. Ultimately, model components were coupled in such ways that interactions can be analyzed dynamically at minimum model- and software complexity. The calibration process along transdisciplinary cause-effect-chains resulted in the improvement of disciplinary models and model results. For example, the relevance of access to water beyond legalized water rights became apparent when empirical data and models were combined. Also, the calibration of the EDIC model required consistent use of data from all four disciplines and improved the calibration of the MP-MAS model. For the WaSiM-ETH model, an irrigation module was developed that is consistent across scales and reflects the needs of extension workers. Finally, model integration and coupling is discussed as research process. The process of calibrating a model with four components is not only a technical challenge for modellers and data management, but also a procedural challenge with regards to cooperation beyond disciplinary institutions and cultures. The structure of the integration process should be robust against errors and equally facilitate knowledge transfer between disciplines, iterative calibration across disciplines. Success factors are suggested to reduce transaction cost during the integration process.
Modeling crop yield and farmer adaptation to rainfall variability : the case of Southern Ethiopia
(2016) Bocher, Temesgen Fitamo; Berger, Thomas
Improving the livelihood of poor households in developing countries by increasing agricultural productivity and production becomes the priority agenda for development actors. However, variability in rainfall has confronted success in achieving this goal. There is pressing interest in analyzing the effects of rainfall variability on household welfare and identifying policy interventions to mitigate its adverse effects. Ethiopian economy primarily depends on rain-fed agriculture. Agriculture is the backbone of the country’s economy; it contributes the lions share of GDP, employment, export earnings, and livelihood. Fluctuations in rainfall distribution and intensity have severely affected the economy in general and the livelihood of smallholder households in particular; the agricultural sector is more prone to changes in climatic condition, which increases the risk of poverty and hunger for poor farm households. Few studies have attempted to analyze the direct effects of rainfall variability on crop yield and its indirect effect on household welfare. Therefore, this thesis aimed at filling the knowledge gap on the impacts of rainfall variability on crop yield and welfare. Moreover, the study explores the role of adaptation strategies in mimicking the negative effects of rainfall variability accounting for household performance decision under resource constraint for Ethiopian farmers. The study employed Mathematical Programming Based Multi-Agent System (MP-MAS) computer simulation techniques to analyze the effects of rainfall variability on crop yield, household welfare and the role of adaptation strategies in mitigating the adverse effects of rainfall variability. Prior to application to the study, the MP-MAS simulation model is parametrized, calibrated, and validated using data from the Ethiopian Rural Household Survey (ERHS), primary data collected from the research area and thirty year rainfall time series data obtained from meteorological stations located near to the study area. To address the mentioned research question a wide range of rainfall and adaptation strategy scenarios were designed. The agent - based model enables us to incorporate different bioeconomic systems in the decision-making process by smallholder farmers, which is otherwise difficult under a real world situation where farm households face inseparable decision-making process. Moreover, the model accounts for the heterogeneity in resource endowment, investment, production, consumption, agro-ecology, input constraints, and demographic distribution among households. Livestock, consumption, crop growth and irrigation water distribution models were combined in this study. The household food consumption decision is estimated by using three stages advanced consumption module and crop water requirement and irrigation water distribution modeled using inbuilt FAO CropWat and EDIC modules, and finally an empirical analysis was done by using STATA version 12. The simulation result suggested that: (i) Both current and future rainfall variability would have negative effects on crop yield and household welfare. (ii) The yield of cereals crops and vegetables are negatively affected by rainfall variability: some perennial crops such as enset gains yield under rainfall variability. (iii) Household welfare deteriorated with rainfall variability; resource poor households are severely affected by rainfall variability. (iv) Adaptation strategies such as non-farm activities, irrigation, and soil and water conservation activities mitigate the negative effects of rainfall variability. (v) Improving the financial or non-farm constraints alone leads to increased income inequality. Therefore, the recommended solution to reduce adverse effects of rainfall variability includes: (i) Implementing integrated policy interventions than a single strategy. (ii) Improving access to credit and access to non-farm activities. (iii) Designing a pro-poor intervention (such as improving the asset base of the poor households). (iv) Improving access and use of improved agricultural technologies, and (v) Increasing access and use of irrigation to enhance agricultural productivity.
Smallholder adaptation through agroforestry : agent-based simulation of climate and price variability in Ethiopia
(2021) Yismaw, Habtamu Demilew; Berger, Thomas
Climate variability has been posing formidable policy challenges in Ethiopia by deteriorating rural livelihoods. Climate variability-induced shocks have a profound impact on smallholder farmers welfare both in the short run via reducing production and increasing output prices and in the long run by depleting productive farm assets and leading them to a poverty trap. However, the impact of shocks on smallholders welfare depends on their choice of adaptation and coping measures to deal with them, which are in turn farmer-specific. This thesis applied an integrated econometric analysis and farm-level simulations to assess smallholder farmers adaptation and coping measures under extreme climate and price variability in Ethiopia. The thesis provides a special focus on the role of investment in small-scale agroforestry to curb the adverse effects of shocks. Drought, hailstorms, pests, and crop diseases are identified as the most frequent and intense climate variability-induced shocks in Ethiopia. Smallholders dominant adaptation and coping measures for each shock are identified using logistic principal component analysis (LPCA). The application of dimensionality reduction of binary data using LPCA to select smallholder farmers dominant adaptation and coping measures is unique to this study. Results show that planting stress-resistant crops and varieties, early planting, increasing seed rate, and soil and water conservation practices are the dominant ex-ante adaptation measures. Whereas selling livestock, selling assets, reducing consumption, borrowing and replanting are the dominant ex-post coping measures. In what follows, household-specific drivers of smallholder farmers choice of adaptation and coping measures are disentangled using multivariate probit regression (MVP) for each shock. Gender, knowledge and experience, participation in rural institutions, social networks, resource endowments, and their shock experience and expectation are the significant drivers of farmers choices of ex-ante adaptation and ex-post coping measures. Results suggest that smallholder farmers choice of measures to deal with climate variability-induced shocks is highly distinctive and depends on their socioeconomic settings, experience and knowledge, and their interactions with the environment. Correlation analysis both in LPCA and MVP results show that most of the measures farmers choose are complementary, which implies that no single measure is robust and works best for all farmers. Farmers invest more on ex-post measures than ex-ante measures. Those who invest on tree perennials as ex-ante drought measures are less likely to use severe measures such as selling livestock and other assets in the aftershock. The econometric analysis in the first part of the thesis establishes a descriptive analysis of smallholder farmers behavioral responses to climate variability-induced covariate shocks. This captures the behavior of farmers in the status quo. However, it does not tell us much about how farmers would behave in different future circumstances, especially with extreme climate and price variability. This requires a prescriptive and descriptive approach with a detailed investigation of farmers behavior down to the plot level. To achieve this objective, the second part of the thesis applies household-level micro-simulation to analyze ex-ante planning and ex-post responses to future climate and price variability, focusing on the role of smallholder farmers’ investment in woodlot perennials to their livelihoods. The agent-based simulation package - Mathematical Programming-based Multi-Agent Systems (MPMAS) is used for this purpose to capture investment, production, and consumption decisions at the farm household level. A farm decision model representing smallholder farmers in the Upper Nile Basin in Ethiopia is developed accordingly. The farmers in the area are known for their integrated crop-livestock system, and a unique Acacia Dicurrens based emph{taungya} system in the country. This thesis shows a first-time use of an agent-based modeling approach representing the acacia-based emph{taungya} system in the Upper Nile Basin in Ethiopia, which is another contribution of this study. The farm decision model is validated using empirical data and interactive sessions with experts. Another methodological novelty of this study is developing and using interactive web applications to validate the farm decision model with experts remotely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Interactive model validation is not new in agent-based modeling using MPMAS. However, the web-based R Shiny app and an integrated web-based expert survey questionnaire app is an original contribution of this study. The study also uses Zoom virtual conferencing to record all interactive validation sessions with experts. Two simulation experiments were designed to quantify the effects of shocks and price variability on agents livelihoods. The High-Performance Computing platform in Baden Wurttemberg (bwHPC) is used to run simulation experiments for this study. The first simulation experiment aims at measuring the effects of shocks on agents livelihoods and the effectiveness of ex-ante planning to curb the adverse effects of these shocks. The application of model features on agents ex-ante preparation for the possible occurrence of shocks within the farm decision model is a new development in this study. Accordingly, the frequent and intense crop and tree diseases in the area - potato late blight and acacia seedling disease are introduced as shocks in the model. Simulation results show that both potato late blight and acacia seedling disease reduce annual per capita discretionary income significantly and forcing some poor resource agents to fail to fulfill minimum non-food expenditure. The trade-off in agents land-use decisions between trees and crops by agents shows that they prefer to plant trees than crops as an ex-ante planning strategy for shocks. The second simulation experiment aims at examining the effect of long-run expected price changes, mainly on land-use decisions of agents in the model. Four future price scenarios are designed, and the results are compared with the baseline to examine the effect on agents discretionary income and land-use decisions. The purpose of this simulation experiment is to see if there is a deviance from croplands to woodlots and vise versa based on long-run changes in expected prices. Simulation results show that agents are highly responsive to changes in expected prices in the long run, except for the expected price of bamboo. In cases where there is a decrease in the expected price of acacia charcoal or an increase in the expected price of crops or both, results show that agents will go back to potatoes and wheat-dominated production systems instead of the acacia-dominated production system . This study suggests that supporting farmer adaptation to climate variability-induced shocks should focus on policy interventions related to crop and land management activities. Policy interventions should also focus on building the household asset base to boost farmers coping ability and resilience to shocks. Moreover, results suggest that robust climate adaptation and mitigation interventions should take the heterogeneity of farmers into account. Furthermore, both econometrics and farm-level simulation analyses show the importance of planting trees as a crucial adaptation strategy. Findings suggest that investment in woodlot perennials is an essential adaptation strategy for smallholder farmers with scarce resource settings and should be promoted and scaled to a broader area in the region.
Socio-economic evaluation of sunflower agri-food chains in Brazil in view of the potential implementation of innovative plant protein ingredients for human consumption
(2018) Sousa, Lucas Oliveira de; Berger, Thomas
This study aimed at performing a socio-economic analysis of an agri-food chain focused on a non-established crop in view of the potential implementation of food innovations, using sunflower agri-food chains in Brazil and upcoming sunflower high-quality food protein ingredients as a case study. Thus, fieldwork was carried out in the main sunflower-producing areas between April and August 2016 for data collection among sunflower chain agents from the input, farming, and processing segments, besides representatives from the research sector. Section 1 applied a multiple case study embedded design to describe and analyze the dynamics of operation of sunflower agri-food chains in Brazil. The analysis followed a theory-driven approach based on concepts from transaction costs economics and the social network approach. The findings indicated an environment of high transaction costs, in which the economic transactions are ruled by formal and relational governance structures, and made possible through knowledge diffusion, under the coordination of a processing company. Nevertheless, the sustainable long-term operation of the sunflower chains is constrained by typical limitations of non-established crops, such as restricted market structure, land use competition with well-established crops, and technological limitations regarding plant breeding, and control of pests and diseases. Moreover, Section 1 revealed that a farmer-led sunflower chain in the state of Mato Grosso (MT) stood out regarding the operational stability, suggesting a closer analysis of this farmers’ collective endeavor, which was performed in the subsequent section. Thus, Section 2 adopted a single case study embedded design to describe and analyze the establishment process of the leading Brazilian sunflower agri-food chain located in MT under the regime of farmers. The analysis followed a framework that regarded the agri-food chain establishment as an entrepreneurial process. The findings indicated that the process of establishment of this sunflower chain has been a complex social-economic endeavor stemming from a set of interconnected driving forces composed of entrepreneurial skills, social network, resource availability, and crop suitability. Furthermore, Section 2 suggested the existence of a supportive institutional environment for the establishment of new sunflower agri-food chains in MT among soybean farmers, besides indicating the need of examining the potential for sunflower production expansion in MT, which was the focus of the next section. Thus, Section 3 applied an integrated assessment approach that combines an agent-based model (ABM) with a crop growth model to investigate the potential for sunflower land use expansion in double-cropping systems prevailing in MT. The ABM was implemented using the software package Mathematical Programming-based Multi-Agent Systems (MPMAS), and the crop yields simulations were implemented using the process-based model for nitrogen and carbon in agro-ecosystems (MONICA). The findings indicated the existence of a potential for the expansion of the sunflower production in MT. Nevertheless, this potential is constrained by the distance between the producing areas and the processing facilities. Moreover, the simulations confirmed the land use competition between sunflower and maize, showing that sunflower land use is strongly associated with agents’ expectations regarding prices and yields of sunflower and maize. However, the results also revealed a complementary effect between these two crops due to the different water deficit tolerance of these crops. Section 3 also highlighted that the simulated potential production of sunflower would require further increases in the current processing capacity installed in MT. To conclude, the analyses performed in Sections 1, 2, and 3 indicated relevant aspects to be considered by innovators interested in implementing food innovations related to non-established crops. The scarcity of feedstock suppliers requires the adoption of contractual and relational governance structures coupled with the provision of technical assistance at the farming level. Moreover, farmers with a recognized professional and social reputation as well as leadership abilities play an important role in influencing other farmers to adopt a non-established crop. Finally, the suitability of the crop for the agricultural system prevailing in the region is essential for ensuring a minimum level of farmers’ willingness to adopt a non-established crop. In this regard, particular attention should be given to the land use competition with well-established crops.