Browsing by Person "Fuchs, Clemens"

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Modellanalyse zu Tierwohl und Wirtschaftlichkeit in der Milchviehhaltung: Bewertung verfahrenstechnischer Maßnahmen und deren ökonomische Auswirkungen
(2023) Gütschow, Paul; Fuchs, Clemens; Louton, Helen; Hess, Sebastian
The welfare of dairy cows is ethically (the animal as an individual) and economically (the animal as a production factor) of high relevance. At the same time, society's growing expectations about good husbandry conditions for dairy cows are increasingly encountering the requirements and framework conditions of modern dairy farming. In the study on animal welfare and economic efficiency, this discrepancy was taken up and examined in more detail based on 28 farms with 46 free-stall barns in north-eastern Germany. The farms were divided into four classes: I < 300 animals, II 300 – 599 animals, III 600 – 900 animals, IV > 900 animals. The status quo on animal welfare was recorded, in the event of deficiencies in the housing conditions, short-term normative measures (additional cubicle care, replacement of the cubicle mat, conversion of the cubicle brackets, etc.) as well as medium-term normative measures (conversion of the lying and walking areas) were derived and the additional costs for improving animal welfare were calculated. In addition, the annual expenses for year-round grazing were calculated. To describe the framework conditions in dairy farming, the development of the husbandry conditions of dairy cows in Germany since 1950 was outlined including essential technical and structural innovations with increasing of bedding-free husbandry methods and year-round barn husbandry from the seventies to today's modern free-stall barn husbandry. Based on this, the current status quo for the animal welfare of highly lactating dairy cows of the Holstein breed in the 46 barns was evaluated and factors influencing the housing environment in the barn on the characteristics of technopathies, contamination (data set D1; 2,082 animals) and lying times (subsample D2; 632 animals) on individual animals were evaluated with the help of statistical tests in two multi-level models (linear mixed model, generalized estimation equations) and decision trees. Regarding technopathies, an assessment was made in five damage classes (0 without special findings, 1 hairless area, 2 skinless area, 3 circumferential increase covered, 4 circumferential increases open). In the survey, technopathies were found in all body regions examined. On average, the following ratings were given carpal joints (0.20), tarsal joints (0.60), knee joints (0.10), and withers (0.30). For the spine, a mean value of 1.20 was recorded. A total of 25.70 % or 535 animals were documented as unharmed (no technopathies) in the study. The aim would be to achieve a proportion of 100 % animals without injuries. Regarding contamination, the assessment was carried out in the score from 1 clean to 6 strong clod formation. The body regions udder, abdomen, tail, tail tassel, hindquarters, cross, ischium and lower leg were rated on average with 2 (isolated, slightly discolored splotches). Deviations from the reference values were recorded for the expression of the lying behavior. On average, the total lying time was 11.60 hours per day (norm 12 to 14 hours), with a lying bout duration of 74.90 minutes (norm 50 to 120 min) and an average number of 10 lying bouts per day (norm 11 to 12). The requirements for the duration of the stay (total lying time, number of lying bouts) were not met on average in the study. Overall, deficiencies can be found in the three areas relevant to welfare of dairy cows (technopathies, cleanliness, lying times). Furthermore, it was investigated to what extent the identified deficits in animal welfare are caused by weaknesses in the barns. For this purpose, the dimensions and condition of the lying, walking, and feeding areas were surveyed. In the barns, 58.70 % of the lying areas were found to be too short (< 182.50 cm); 93.50 % of the lying areas are recorded as too narrow (< 117.50 cm) and in 30.40 % of the deep boxes the fecal level is recorded as too low (< 20 cm). The stall and feeding corridors were documented as too narrow in 45.80 % (< 2.50 m) and 47.80 % (< 3.50 m) of the barns and were also rated as unsafe in 12 out of 46 barns. Furthermore, in 38 out of 45 barns, too low an upper demarcation in the feeding area (< 149 cm) was documented. In the lying area, 22 barns were equipped with high boxes and 26 with deep boxes. In these, deficiencies in the state of care were found. In 54.90 % of the high boxes, less than 50 % of the lying area was covered with bedding. In addition, 68.80 % of the deep boxes showed strong trough formation in the lying surface. In the area of animal comfort, 26 out of 46 barns were equipped with brushes and 25 out of 28 barns with foot baths. The housing conditions in the lying, walking, and feeding areas often show deviations from the reference values with an impact on animal welfare. The clearest effects of the housing conditions on the severity of technopathies, contamination and lying times were recorded in the lying area. Significantly fewer animals without injuries were documented in barns with high boxes (14.70 % animals without technopathies) instead of barns with deep boxes (35.60 % animals without technopathies). In addition, animals in barns with high boxes were recorded with a higher value of contamination instead of barns with low boxes. In barns with narrow lying surfaces (< 117.50 cm), fewer animals without injuries (24.50 %) were found than in barns with wider lying areas (≥ 117.50 cm; 43.10 % without injuries). More animals with total lying times of < 12 hours per day (56 %) were recorded in barns with narrow lying areas than in barns with wider lying areas and a proportion of 27 % of animals with less than 12 hours of total lying time per day. Furthermore, increases in technopathies were observed in the tarsal joints and spine as the length of the lying surface decreased. For the economic evaluation, the investment requirements, the additional labor requirements, as well as the additional costs of grazing were estimated and the average annual costs per animal, as well as the costs per kg of energy-corrected milk (ECM) were calculated. The calculated annual costs for the elimination of deficiencies with an impact on technopathies, contamination and lying times are between EUR 181 and EUR 1,615 per animal p.a. or EUR 0.02 and EUR 0.17 per kg ECM for short- and medium-term normative measures, as well as grazing. The average annual cost of grazing (365 days p.a.) is between EUR 0.02 and EUR 0.08 per kg of ECM. Mostly, the farms incur additional expenses for the pasture in the amount of EUR 0.03 per kg ECM. On average, additional annual expenditure for the improvement of housing conditions of EUR 741 per animal per annum and EUR 0.07 per kg ECM was calculated. In most farms, a conversion of the barns would involve changes in the lying area (e.g., enlargement of the lying area, reduction of the number of cubicles) and a reduction in the number of animals. On average in the study, conversions in the lying area would be associated with a reduction in the number of animals by - 24% and the resulting annual loss of income of EUR 96,622 per farm. The evaluation of the full costs showed that for 37 out of 44 barns, a new building would be associated with lower individual costs than a comprehensive conversion of the barns. The lowest individual costs were found on farms with more than 900 cows. In this study group, the conversion in 5 out of 13 barns or 38 % would be associated with lower individual costs than a new barn construction. The study found that improvements in husbandry conditions are necessary for most of the analyzed farms and entail significant additional costs of EUR 0.07 per kg of milk on average. The high additional costs make it difficult to achieve the goals of animal welfare and economic efficiency in free-stall barns at the same time.
Wirtschaftliche Analyse der Tierhaltungsbetriebe um die Metropole Moskau unter besonderer Berücksichtiung von Aufwands- und Ertragsrisiken
(2017) Droganova, Yulia; Fuchs, Clemens
The slow modernisation of the agricultural sector in the Russian Federation after the USSR era, the adoption and the ratification of the Basel Accords, the accession of Russia to the World Trade Organisation in 2012, and finally the crisis in the Ukraine, followed by the import ban on numerous agricultural, fishery products from the EU, USA, Canada, Australia, Norway in August 2014 are the most significant problems which found their reflection in this dissertation. This lead to an increased interest to analyse livestock farms in the Moscow region in consideration of risks in order to predict their profitable development. The goal of the current research was to identify the impending bankruptcy of the Russian livestock farms as early as possible in order to engage in efficient counter planning. The majority of the livestock farms in the Moscow region are dairy farms, which was why this type of livestock farming became the main topic of research for this thesis. The classification of dairy farms into solvent and insolvent farms is based on the application of the multivariate discriminant analysis, a bankruptcy predicting method that is widely used by many banks in Europe and the USA. The risk factor is taken into account in the empirical model of the dairy farm by setting up the stochastic Monte Carlo simulation with the most important random variables (prices, yields and interest rate) in order to quantitatively measure their influence on the economic profitability of a typical dairy farm. Following the results of the discriminant analysis, questions concerning the validation of this model were be raised. What measures were required for the dairy farms, classified as insolvent to deter bankruptcy? This question was examined using a cash flow model, summaries of relevant data and requirements for an empirical model of the dairy farms were collected through interviews of subject experts. On the basis of reference scenario/status quo scenario, three main scenarios were created: Scenario 1 Re-structuring, scenario 2 Improvement of Management and Marketing Activities, and scenario 3 Risk analysis, whereby the measures from scenarios 1 and 2 were stochastically simulated in the scenario 3 Risk analysis in order to be able to estimate the economic risks. From the data set of 31 farms, five typical model farms were selected: two correctly classified solvent, two correctly classified insolvent, and one, which showed up as a type 1 error in the discriminant analysis. A reference scenario describes the data period based on the average values of operational performance from 2008-2010, and the individualized data from the Russian statistics of 2011-2013 and forms a data basis for the scenarios 1 to 3. Scenario 1a Restructuring under Russian Insolvency Law is counterpoised to scenario 1b Restructuring under German Insolvency Law. Scenario 2a Improvement of Management and Marketing Activities without Investment and scenario 2b Improvement of Management and Marketing Activities with Investment contains measures to improve management and marketing. Labour costs were doubled, maintenance, repair costs as well as some other costs were adjusted; while the milk yields, the weight of the dairy cows, the silage yields and the yields of pastures, meadows have been estimated with a logistic function. Over a planning period of twelve years, the dairy farms classified as solvent maximised the increase of their equity capital in scenario 2b, which represents the best result compared to all other scenarios considered. Firstly, it has shown that an adequate insolvency law should support the restructuring process, secondly that training and education, consulting, motivation of employees through higher wages can lead to a better-combined performance in comparison to restructuring. In scenario 3 Risk Analysis, ten relevant random variables and their volatility were simulated and analysed within the frame conditions of the initial Scenarios 1 and 2. In addition, the target values selected were: equity after tax, equity change per hectare of agricultural area, internal equity interest and profit after tax. The presented results explain how on one hand, an adequate insolvency law can support the restructuring process and lead to reinstate solvency of the dairy farms. On the other hand, these results confirm, that the improvements in management can also lead to significant positive achievements in operational performance as opposed to restructuring. The farm, which belongs to type 1 error in the discriminant analysis, has ranked as a solvent dairy farm over the planning period of twelve years in all the scenarios considered. In this case, it can be concluded that the simulation model in the researched composition with the multivariate discriminant analysis has indirectly served to be applicable for validation purposes of the determined discriminant function.