Browsing by Person "Hagemann, Harald"

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Die Arbeitsmarktsituation formal Geringqualifizierter in Deutschland : Folgen, Ursachen und Politikimplikationen einer veränderten Nachfrage nach einfacher Arbeit
(2015) Rukwid, Ralf; Hagemann, Harald
This dissertation provides an elaborate discussion of the labour market situation of low-skilled workers in Germany. It starts with a precise description of the employment and wage effects for unskilled labour in the context of a skill-specific structural change and the tendency towards a knowledge-based economy. The analysis focuses on the current job and income opportunities of low-skilled workers as well as the historical developments. This is followed by an overview of the theoretical determinants of the specific labour market problems of unskilled workers and the main explanations for a long-term demand shift away from low-skilled labour (trade vs. technology). Finally, different political approaches for an improvement of the job prospects of less-qualified persons in Germany are presented and evaluated. The focus here is on one hand on various strategies for enhancing flexibility of the German wage structure and on the other hand on a further expansion and improvement of the system of education and vocational training.
Business cycles and institutions : empirical analysis
(2017) Kufenko, Vadim; Hagemann, Harald
The cumulative dissertation covers diverse aspects of empirical analysis of business cycles and institutions. There are three research questions in focus. To address the interplay between business cycles and institutions, the first research question is formulated: could the Malthusian cycles be present in a frontier economy with abundance of land and which institutions could be responsible for the Malthusian regime and the transition from it? In order to consider the far-reaching implications of economic cycles for the development of economic thought, the second question is stated: can economic fluctuations quantitatively influence research output? To address the methodology of business cycle analysis, the third question is brought up: how may spurious periodicities emerge and how could one test for them? The main findings in the cumulative dissertation can be summarized as follows: i) it is shown that institutional arrangements may form economic constraints or build-up on the existing ones, responsible for the regimes in which cyclical fluctuations take place; ii) the interaction between the economic cycles and fluctuations in bibliometric variables representing research output in Economics as a science is analysed, and empirical evidence suggests the downswings of cycles stimulate more publications on the topic of crises and business cycles; iii) spurious periodicities emerge close to filtering bounds for real and simulated data after detrending, and it is demonstrated that simultaneous significance testing of spectral density peaks against the noise spectrum across different types of signals may help to reveal spurious periodicities.
Capital shortage unemployment in Germany and the UK
(1998) Arestis, Philip; Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, Iris; Hagemann, Harald
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Economic growth in the post-socialist Russian Federation after 1991 : the role of institutions
(2011) Hagemann, Harald; Dobler, Constanze
The paper emphasizes the transition in Russia and the role institutions played before and during the process. In Russia, a ?big bang? approach was applied. That is to say, transition was conducted all of a sudden, omitting important underlying reforms. This practice should function as a shock therapy. Hence, the approach should leave no other chance than an abrupt adaption to the new free-market rules. These rules would then lead to fast economic growth and development, as they did in other places. However, since Russian GDP per capita and thereby living standards deteriorated dramatically in the years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the plan did not work. At any rate, since then Russian economic indicators recovered and partly achieved their pre-1991 levels at the end of the last decade. The paper depicts Russia?s reform efforts and the subsequent developments. The close ties among the political elite, the banking sector and the old nomenklatura are demonstrated. The patrimonial system that persisted for centuries is still observable at the state level. At any rate, Russia can neither evade its historical and institutional development path nor its societal structures that are based on networks and nepotism. Russia?s systemic lack of the rule of law and therewith of secure property, the character of the Russian political system with the patriarch as the head of state and the resulting necessity of corruption and bribes inhibit the realization of its full growth potential.
Essays on the history of dynamic economic analysis
(2013) Molavi Vasséi, Arash; Hagemann, Harald
The subsequent three studies in the history of economic analysis ranges over a wide area of subjects. Part one, raises the following questions: To what extent is axiomatic general equilibrium analysis a rational reconstruction of ?Scottish Political Economy? as defined by the writings of David Hume and Adam Smith? How much is gained and how much lost by the axiomatic transformation of the invisible-hand proposition? What are the implications of negative results like the Sonnenschein-Mantel-Debreu demonstrations for the Scottish point of view? Did it reach deadlock, or is there still hope for the dominant trajectory in the history of economics? In contrast to the rich historical literature on the invisible-hand proposition, the present study does not level any paradigmatic criticism at neo-Walrasian analysis. Rather, by focalizing the most important results against the backdrop of Scottish Political Economy, it may inform theory choice within the neo-Walrasian paradigm. Part two translates F.A. Hayek?s informal capital theory into a dynamic equilibrium model. The focus is restricted to Hayek?s largely unrecognized contribution in Utility Analysis and Interest, being restated in The Pure Theory of Capital. The underlying premise is that Hayek adopts infant versions of modern analytical tools during his time at the London School of Economics such that a rational reconstruction of his capital theory by established neoclassical tools is admissible. The major result is that UAI and PTC contain a generalization of the Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model. In concrete, Hayek provides the solution to an infinite-horizon deterministic social planner optimization problem in a one-sector economy such that the rate of pure time preference encapsulated in the discount factor increases in prospective utility. The endogeneity of myopia is due to intertemporal complementarities and accounted for by the modified Uzawa aggregator. A partial alliance with Frank Knight is established. Part three addresses Ludwig von Mises?s business cycle theory at maturity, as advanced in his opus magnum Human Action. In this work, Mises embeds the business cycle theory which he initially developed in Theorie des Geldes und der Umlaufmittel into the broad context of his methodological convictions. Whereas the initial outline of his cycle theory strongly relies on Böhm-Bawerk?s capital theory, its mature version is built upon a significantly altered framework of real analysis. The paper describes and evaluates the impact of Mises?s praxeology on his conceptualization of real analysis; it provides a simple model to depict and clarify Mises?s outline; it draws implications for his business cycle theory and its core prediction that ?any money-induced traverse by necessity reverses?; it argues that Mises?s core prediction ultimately depends on his barren analytical device; it concludes that Mises?s mature business cycle theory is a regression.
Perspectives of workers with low qualifications in Germany under the pressures of globalization and technical progress
(2007) Rukwid, Ralf; Hagemann, Harald
This paper gives a detailed analysis of the perspectives of workers with low qualifications in Germany under the twofold pressures of globalization and technological change. First, alternative explanations for the skill-bias in the development of labour demand are discussed, with particular emphasis on the ?trade versus technology? debate. The consequences of the demand shift away from low-skilled labour in Germany are examined in a detailed empirical analysis of the development of (un)employment problems differentiated for qualification groups. Compared to other advanced economies, Germany shows a higher unemployment rate among less-qualified workers which is generally associated with a lack of flexibility in the German wage structure. However, an analysis of German, U.S. and British wage data based on the Cross National Equivalent File (CNEF) does not confirm the assumption of a simple monocausal relationship between wage disparity and the intensity of group-specific unemployment. Finally, some political approaches for an improvement of the job prospects of less-qualified persons in Germany are outlined briefly and evaluated against the background of the empirical results.
Price stability versus full employment : the Phillips curve dilemma reconsidered
(2016) Schwarzer, Johannes A.; Hagemann, Harald
This dissertation focuses on different interpretations of the Phillips curve particularly from the end of the 1950s to the beginning of the 1970s. In the 1950s and 1960s the Phillips curve was mainly perceived as a “cruel dilemma”. From this perspective the curve seemed to imply that price stability and full employment (and to some extent also economic growth) are mutually conflicting policy objectives. Furthermore, the curve was usually regarded as describing disequilibrium phenomena, that is, excess demand or supply on the labour market causing a price reaction. On the other hand, particularly since the late 1960s, the Phillips curve became more and more embedded into an equilibrium approach, so that departures from a “natural rate of unemployment” are possible only by surprise inflation. Moreover, within this view, price stability and full employment are assumed to be compatible policy goals. These two different lines of thought are presented in three already published peer-reviewed journal articles which are reproduced in the first half of this Ph.D. thesis. The underlying reasons for these different views are then discussed in the remainder of the dissertation. It is shown that both lines of thought built on very different assumptions regarding the causes of inflation and the specific kind of unemployment prevailing in the economy. The discussion is then related to current economic models (such as the New Keynesian approach) which also point at a possible conflict between price stability and full employment.
Solving productivity puzzles - on the nature of total factor productivity, technological change and the explanatory power of the mismeasurement hypothesis
(2020) Zwiessler, Oliver; Hagemann, Harald
Long-term economic development, productivity growth and technological progress are inevitably linked to each other. The present study tackles this nexus and elaborates on the declining rates of productivity growth in the recent past. As the field of study is the German economy and in order to avoid problems associated with structural changes, the point of departure for the analysis of productivity trends is 1991. The first part of the study is dedicated to the question, whether total factor productivity (TFP) is a suitable variable for depicting technological progress in the system of national accounts. Apart from providing insight into the evolution of the growth accounting framework, the study presents three views of how to interpret the connection between TFP and technology: a traditional view, which states an equivalence (the „residual-view“), a view that emphasizes the ignorance of the components of the residual and a third-way, which explains the occurence of the residual as a result from (technological) „spill-over“-effects. Usually, the birth point of the theory of growth accounting and the discussion about „the residual“, which form the traditional view, are associated with the works of Robert Solow (1956, 1957). However, it was Jan Tinbergen (1959 [1942]), who has originally set up such a framework, mathematically based on a Cobb-Douglas production function (1928). As a critical reaction on the traditional view, subsequent research has tackled the issue by promoting the ignorance-character of the residual. Moreover, it was tried to minimize this catch-all variable by trying to explain economic growth just with the input factors labour and capital and not a technology-labelled residual. A third possibilty of interpretation is provided mainly by Richard Lipsey and Kenneth Carlaw (2003), who interpret any changes in TFP as „spill-over“-effects from technology, but not technology per se. The second part of the study then tackles the German productivity puzzle – declining rates of productivity growth from 1991 onwards. Accepting a connection between technology and producitivity, decreasing productivity growth rates imply less technological progress – a confusing result in course of the wave of technological innovations of the 21st century. Two strands of explanations are provided. As a first possibility, there is the so-called mismeasurement hypothesis. If measurement errors occur and/or if the system of national accounts is an inaccurate measurement framework, then this could explain the missing portion of output in the data. Potential for mismeasurement exists, i.e. by the problem of capturing quality effects or by the general problem of accurately measuring developments in the ICT-sectors of modern service economies like Germany. In order to evaluate the magnitude of potential mismeasurement, a study by Chad Syverson (2016, 2017) is chosen and applied on Germany. The results of the German application and the base study converge – there is potential mismeasurement, its magnitude however is simply too small to account for the entire bulk of the missing data. In contrast to potential mismeasurement, a second strand of explanation is discussed, implying ‚real‘ economic problems. Applying the theory of secular stagnation, any decline in productivity growth then is the result from insufficient economic conditions. The present study adopts the supply side argumentation, revived and mainly formed by Larry Summers (2012, 2015). Summers‘ argumentation is separated into a major argument of less technological innovations (less significant innovations) and potential „headwinds“, which falter economic growth. The present study analyses the German economy in the light of potential headwinds and finds different headwinds and impacts, compared to Summers‘ original analysis, which is set up for the US. Demographic aspects, insufficient capital spending (especially in infrastructure) and rising inequality are the major headwinds for Germany. In comparison to the US, Germany performs better regarding the educational system and public (and private) debt.
Soziale Marktwirtschaft und Ordoliberalismus : ausgewählte ordnungspolitische Aspekte und ihre Anwendung auf die Transitionsländer
(2019) Ivanovic, Vladan; Hagemann, Harald
The dissertation “Social market economy and Ordoliberlism: Selected institutional aspects and its application in transition countries“ analyses the pivotal institutional structures from the perspective of the proponents of social market economy and ordoliberals. Those institutional aspects determine economic development in the long run. In that sense, the research is linked to the contemporary debate on an importance of institutions in determing a long term economic and social progress. The central pillar of order within social market economy and ordoliberalism refers to the importance of stable value of money for efficient exchange and relations between economic agents. The free price order is as fundamental coordination mechanism as it is essential for creation of significant economic and social advantages in national economy. On the other side, in inflatory environment comes to substantial allocative inefficiences. There is as well an important disruptive influence of inflation on the state structures and freedom. The key role in establishing and maintaining the price stability belongs to an independent central bank. It is necessary, but not sufficient condition for it. The stability of prices and the power of central bank to maintain the stability of prices depend on the coordination with the other state instances, especially with the fiscal authorities, and other important circumstances, such as wage development and velocity of money. The second part of the thesis addresses various issues regarding the competitive order and supporting institutional structure for its development. Competitive order is valued as essential for enabling and protecting the freedom, social mobility, minimisation of transaction costs, rise of the exchange and deepening of the economic relations between economic agents. Several requirements have to be met in order to establish a competitive order. First refers to market openness, which is essential for an efficient participation in the world market. Private property regime as a structural right in economy represents the second precondition. Rule of law is the third requirement which is essential for the protection of individual economic agents. It protects them from predatory behaviour of other economic agents as well from the predatory state activities. In order to escape potentially negative impact of the political process on predictability, reliability and impartiality of institutional structure, which is warranted by rule of law, a clear separation of tasks and responsibilities between different elements of state structure is required. Particularly big challenge for the rule of law and its consequence in the form of competitive order is the concentration of private economic power. An establishment of a credible, consistent, and unbiased legal framework is the fundamental prerequisite for limiting inefficiences arising from the concentration of economic power. To intensify and spread state interventions may cause substantial risks in national economy. They jeopardise functionality and efficiency of political system which is essential for the properly functioning of institutional structure. There is, though, enough place for different measures of economic policy if it comes to structural imbalances in the economy. The third part is devoted to the analysis of the guiding ideas regrading the income distribution and general distribution of resources in the conomy. The state measures regarding the redistribution should mitigate the impacts of market failure, as well as market risks and uncertainities. State and the level of the development of the economy and already emloyed state measures are defining possibilities, effectiveness and efficiency of redistributive policy measures. The fourth part empirically analyses different institutional aspects in the transition countries. On the basis of a new de facto index of central bank independence is found that there is a significant effect of it on an economic growth and its volatility. Generally the more independent is a central bank, the larger will be an economic growth and greater its stability. Further, it is determined that the institutional quality measured by WGI exerted a significant influence on an economic growth in transition countries as well. Regarding the inequality, all transition countries recorded the rise of income inequality since the beginning of the transition, which was especially emphasised in the least developed countries.
The political Kuznets Curve for Russia : income inequality, rent seeking regional elites and empirical determinants of protests during 2011/2012
(2013) Kufenko, Vadim; Hagemann, Harald
The goal of this paper is to apply the theory of the political Kuznets curve to Russia and reveal the key determinants of the probability of recent protests during 2011-2012 in the Russian regions. We apply the political Kuznets curve in the time and spatial dimensions, and find mixed evidence: throughout time, we observe an almost linear and positive relation between income and income distribution, whereas in the spatial dimension there exists an evidence of a concave curve. Empirical investigation of the role of income inequality using the latent variable framework allows us to outmanoeuvre certain measurement issues and state that conventional measures of income inequality, such as the Gini coefficient, may not be able to predict protests. Instead, we use the relation of the governors? family income to the average family income in the region, a proxy for rent-seeking of regional elites, which turns out to be a positive, significant and robust determinant of the protests. Applying additional controls ensures the robustness of the results and highlights the fact that democracy score and the economic factors are also significant. Mapping the distribution of the protests provides information on the clustering effect.
The political Kuznets Curve for Russia : income inequality, rent seeking regional elites and empirical determinants of protests during 2011/2012
(2013) Kufenko, Vadim; Hagemann, Harald
The goal of this paper is to apply the theory of the political Kuznets curve to Russia and reveal the key determinants of the probability of recent protests during 2011-2012 in the Russian regions. We apply the political Kuznets curve in the time and spatial dimensions, and find mixed evidence: throughout time, we observe an almost linear and positive relation between income and income distribution, whereas in the spatial dimension there exists an evidence of a concave curve. Empirical investigation of the role of income inequality using the latent variable framework allows us to outmanoeuvre certain measurement issues and state that conventional measures of income inequality, such as the Gini coefficient, may not be able to predict protests. Instead, we use the relation of the governors? family income to the average family income in the region, a proxy for rent-seeking of regional elites, which turns out to be a positive, significant and robust determinant of the protests. Applying additional controls ensures the robustness of the results and highlights the fact that democracy score and the economic factors are also significant. Mapping the distribution of the protests provides information on the clustering effect.
Wachstums- und Investitionsdynamik in Deutschland
(2012) Hagemann, Harald; Erber, Georg
Wachstums- und Investitionsdynamik in Deutschland
(2014) Hagemann, Harald; Erber, Georg; Geiger, Niels; Schwarzer, Johannes; Zwiessler, Oliver
Sowohl auf theoretischer als auch auf empirischer Ebene wurde die wichtige Rolle privater und staatlicher Investitionstätigkeit für das Wirtschaftswachstum deutlich. Zu betonen ist hierbei, dass beide Investitionsarten in einer komplementären Beziehung zueinander stehen, so dass ein entsprechend ausbalancierter Mix an privaten und staatlichen Investitionen wesentlich für das Erreichen eines dynamischen Wachstumspfades ist. Die Bedeutung der privaten Investitionstätigkeit für den Konjunktur- und Wachstumsverlauf einer Volkswirtschaft wurde anhand verschiedener Modelle wie z.B. dem Multiplikator-Akzelerator-Modell diskutiert und hervorgehoben. Die besondere Rolle der staatlichen Investitionstätigkeit und deren Auswirkungen auf das Wirtschaftswachstum wurden im Rahmen der Aschauer-Hypothese vertieft dargestellt. Insgesamt ist aber auf theoretischer Ebene dennoch kritisch zu hinterfragen, auf welcher Grundlage ein bestimmter Investitionsmangel identifiziert wird und wie ein optimales Investitionsniveau bestimmt werden kann. Auf Grund dieser geradezu fundamentalen Bedeutung der Investitionen für das Wirtschaftswachstum erscheint es um so erschreckender, dass gerade in Deutschland als eine der weltweit führenden Industrienationen die Investitionstätigkeit seit Jahren auf internationaler Ebene nicht ebenso im Spitzenfeld zu finden ist. Dies ist insofern von besonderer Brisanz, da die Deutsche Wirtschaft und deren Schlüsselbranchen wie die Automobilindustrie, in einem harten internationalen Wettbewerb stehen und somit eine verhaltene Investitionstätigkeit auf privater und staatlicher Ebene langfristig entsprechend negative Konsequenzen für die Produktion und den Arbeitsmarkt erwarten lassen. Ganz allgemein lassen sich negative Beschäftigungseffekte in einer dynamischen Weltwirtschaft und angesichts eines immer voranschreitenden technologischen Wandels nie ganz vermeiden. Wie aber in dieser Studie herausgearbeitet wurde, sind gerade daher Investitionen auch in Bezug auf den Arbeitsmarkt langfristig vorteilhaft, um die Beschäftigung aufrecht zu erhalten. Besonders hervorzuheben sind hierbei Bildungsinvestitionen und die Anpassung der Arbeitsmarktinstitutionen an die neuen Herausforderungen an Flexibilität und Qualität des Arbeitskräftepotentials. Die in diesem Zwischenbericht angeschnittenen Themen und Fragestellungen werden im Endbericht noch vertieft dargestellt und ausgebaut werden. So wird z.B. die Investitionsentscheidung der privaten Unternehmen mikroökonomisch fundiert hergeleitet werden. Die bereits im Rahmen der Aschauer-Hypothese angedachten Bereiche der staatlichen Investitionstätigkeit werden eingehend betrachtet und diskutiert werden. Im Fokus werden hierbei insbesondere öffentliche Bildungs- und Infrastrukturinvestitionen stehen. Diese Analyse wird sowohl theoretisch als auch empirisch durchgeführt werden, wobei bezüglich der empirischen Untersuchung die Revision der VGR und deren Auswirkungen auf das gemeldete Wirtschaftswachstum im Blickpunkt stehen werden. Entsprechende wirtschaftspolitische Überlegungen und Fragestellungen werden die Studie abschließen. Hierbei wird insbesondere ein Augenmerk auf die Bestimmung einer optimalen Investitionstätigkeit und auf die Notwendigkeit und Möglichkeit der Investitionsförderung gelegt werden.
Wellen wirtschaftlichen Wandels – theoretische, historische und statistische Betrachtung
(2015) Geiger, Niels; Hagemann, Harald
This dissertation provides an elaborate discussion of business cycle theory. In particular, the question of peculiarities of individual agents’ behaviour within an economy is analysed: Can macroeconomic fluctuations in various variables, such as production, unemployment etc., be traced back to deviations from Rational Choice standards which are frequently used in economic models, and instead be explained by reference to models of bounded rationality? In order to investigate this question, the dissertation contains both a summary of the history of thought in business cycle theory, as well as an overview of underlying thoughts and applications of theories of bounded rationality and behavioural economics. In particular, literature from cognitive psychology is discussed in this context. The results culminate in a synthesis of business cycle theory and behavioural economics: The influence of individual behavioural characteristics on macroeconomic fluctuations is discussed both on a general theoretical level, as well as through the particular case of a sketch of a behavioural business cycle model.