Browsing by Person "Mendoza Tijerino, Francisco Antonio"

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Climate change and agricultural structural change : the relevance for machinery use and acquisition in Germany
(2021) Mendoza Tijerino, Francisco Antonio; Berger, Thomas
This thesis is a contribution to the research project “Regional Climate Change,” funded by the German Research Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, DFG – Forschergruppe 1695 Regionaler Klimawandel). The projects objective was to learn about the vulnerability and sensitivity of typical land systems in Southwest Germany and identify suitable strategies for adaptation. The doctoral work contributes with empirical and methodological insights of farmers likely management adaptations in light of the farm managerial challenges arising from climate and structural change in Germany. The agricultural structure in Germany has strongly changed in the last 60 years. Where before numerous small-scale and labor-intensive farms were observed, it is now the place where fewer and highly mechanized farms contribute to agricultural production. The ongoing agricultural structural change in Germany is characterized by a trend in which many farms exit the agricultural sector, and the remaining --growth-oriented-- farmers take over the land, reorganize their farm business, and expand their operations. Nevertheless, this trend of farm growth, which is expected to continue in the future, poses significant challenges at the farm management level: Decisions on machinery use and acquisition play a crucial role in shaping the farm cost structure, and represent a critical element for maintaining competitiveness. Particularly for the expansion efforts, farm managers face a highly complex decision-making process to acquire the proper machinery capacities for field operations. Moreover, an additional factor will need to be considered for adequate decision-making: Climate change developments and the uncertainties associated with this process will likely increase the complexity of the farmers decision-making regarding the best reorganizational strategies towards farms expansion. Changes in the natural conditions for crop growth and development will likely result in management adaptations, e.g., changing the timing for fieldwork operations or changing land-use patterns. An analysis of the complex interactions and interdependencies between the environment and the farm system, on the one hand, and the resources and production possibilities available to the farm manager in the course of farm expansion on the other hand, require adequate tools of analysis. This work analyzes three dimensions of farm machinery management in the context of climate change and agricultural structural change. The first element of analysis corresponds to an examination of the sensibility of land-use and machinery investment decisions to climate change scenarios with the agent-based MPMAS model constructed for Central Swabian Jura in Southwest Germany. The Central Swabian Jura MPMAS model is a constitutive part of the bioeconomic modeling system MPMAS_XN. The MPMAS_XN system integrates the agricultural economic agent-based software MPMAS and the plant-soil modeling software Expert-N (XN) into a fully coupled system. The assessment of the sensibility and responsiveness of the MPMAS component revealed complex adaptation responses of land-use and machinery investment decisions as a result of shifted timing in fieldwork operations (e.g., harvesting or fertilization tasks). The second element of analysis corresponds to an examination of economies of size arising from farm machinery use and acquisition decisions in arable farms that follow a typical crop rotation practiced in Germany. For the analysis, a whole-farm multiperiod mathematical program implemented in the agent-based software MPMAS was employed. Optimizations were run and evaluated at a broad range of farm sizes and two distinctive distributions of availability of fieldwork days estimated for Southwest Germany. The results allowed observing patterns of optimal farm machinery demand and cost curves for several evaluated farm sizes and distributions of available fieldwork days distributions. The third main element of this work corresponds to a methodological contribution to the MPMAS_XN model system. Within this element, the implementation, functioning, and potential of an external theory-based MPMAS module are presented. The external module represents dynamics for joint machinery investments among simulated farm agents and serves as an enhancing methodological contribution for analyzing and representing farm machinery management in the agent-based software MPMAS.