Hohenheimer Schriftenreihen

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A data–cleaning augmented Kalman filter for robust estimation of state space models
(2015) Marczak, Martyna; Proietti, Tommaso; Grassi, Stefano
This article presents a robust augmented Kalman filter that extends the data– cleaning filter (Masreliez and Martin, 1977) to the general state space model featuring nonstationary and regression effects. The robust filter shrinks the observations towards their one–step–ahead prediction based on the past, by bounding the effect of the information carried by a new observation according to an influence function. When maximum likelihood estimation is carried out on the replacement data, an M–type estimator is obtained. We investigate the performance of the robust AKF in two applications using as a modeling framework the basic structural time series model, a popular unobserved components model in the analysis of seasonal time series. First, a Monte Carlo experiment is conducted in order to evaluate the com- parative accuracy of the proposed method for estimating the variance parameters. Second, the method is applied in a forecasting context to a large set of European trade statistics series.
A data-driven procedure to determine the bunching window : an application to the Netherlands
(2016) Bosch, Nicole; Dekker, Vincent; Strohmaier, Kristina
This paper presents new empirical evidence on taxpayers responsiveness to taxation by estimating the compensated elasticity of taxable income with respect to the net-of-tax rate in the Netherlands. Applying the bunching approach introduced by Saez (2010), we find small, but clear evidence of bunching behaviour at the thresholds of the Dutch tax schedule with a precise estimated elasticity of 0.023 at the upper threshold. In line with the literature, we find much larger estimates for women and self-employed individuals, but we can also identify significant bunching behaviour for wage employed individuals which we can attribute to tax deductions for couples. We add to the bunching literature by proposing to rely on the information criteria to determine the counterfactual model, as well as developing an intuitive, data-driven procedure to determine the bunching window.
A neo-Schumpeterian perspective on the analytical macroeconomic framework : the expanded reproduction system
(2015) Jun, Bogang; Kim, Tai-Yoo
This study aims to introduce a new analytical macroeconomic framework, the expanded reproduction system, that combines the accumulated wisdom of several contemporary economic models while also compensating for their shortcomings. This new framework may be used to study macroeconomic phenomena from both the supply and demand side over a number of different time intervals. Furthermore, as we account for both new product and productivity innovations, we are able to account for both qualitative and quantitative developments within the economy.
A review of spatial econometric models for count data
(2017) Glaser, Stephanie
Despite the increasing availability of spatial count data in research areas like technology spillovers, patenting activities, insurance payments, and crime forecasting, specialized models for analysing such data have received little attention in econometric literature so far. The few existing approaches can be broadly classified into observation-driven models, where the random spatial effects enter the moments of the dependent variable directly, and parameterdriven models, where the random spatial effects are unobservable and induced via a latent process. Moreover, within these groups the modelling approaches (and therefore the interpretation) of spatial effects are quite heterogeneous, stemming in part from the nonlinear structure of count data models. The purpose of this survey is to compare and contrast the various approaches for econometric modelling of spatial counts discussed in the literature.
Arbeitswelt: Digital – Belastung: Real? : Der erlebte Wandel der Arbeitswelt innerhalb der IT-Branche aus Sicht der Arbeitnehmer
(2017) Walz, Fabienne; Wagner, Lea; Adelhelm, Ann-Sophie; Bathelt, Melanie; Bathelt, Mirjam; Bürkin, Bettina; Klein, Sascha; Straub, Sabrina
Are sociocultural factors important for studying a science university major?
(2015) Grossmann, Volker; Osikominu, Aderonke; Osterfeld, Marius
This paper examines the role of the sociocultural background of students for choosing STEM fields in university. We combine rich survey data on university graduates in Switzerland with municipality level information from the census as well as nationwide elections and referenda to characterize a students home environment with respect to religious and political attitudes towards gender equality and science-related issues. Our empirical estimates are based on a structural Roy model which accounts for differences in costs (relative distance to the next technical university) and earnings across majors as well as for selection bias. Our findings suggest that male students from conservative municipalities are more likely to study a STEM field, whereas the sociocultural background plays little role for the major choice of females.
Automation and demographic change
(2017) Abeliansky, Ana; Prettner, Klaus
We analyze the effects of declining population growth on the adoption of automation technology. A standard theoretical framework of the accumulation of traditional physical capital and of automation capital predicts that countries with a lower population growth rate are the ones that innovate and/or adopt new automation technologies faster. We test the theoretical prediction by means of panel data for 60 countries over the time span from 1993 to 2013. Regression estimates provide empirical support for the theoretical prediction and suggest that a 1% increase in population growth is associated with approximately a 2% reduction in the growth rate of robot density. Our results are robust to the inclusion of standard control variables, the use of different estimation methods, the consideration of a dynamic framework with the lagged dependent variable as regressor, and changing the measurement of the stock of robots.
Automation, robots and wage inequality in Germany : a decomposition analysis
(2020) Schmid, Ramona; Brall, Franziska
We analyze how and through which channels wage inequality is affected by the rise in automation and robotization in the manufacturing sector in Germany from 1996 to 2017. Combining rich linked employer-employee data accounting for a variety of different individual, firm and industry characteristics with data on industrial robots and automation probabilities of occupations, we are able to disentangle different potential causes behind changes in wage inequality in Germany. We apply the recentered influence function (RIF) regression based Oaxaca-Blinder (OB) decomposition on several inequality indices and find evidence that besides personal characteristics like age and education the rise in automation and robotization contributes significantly to wage inequality in Germany. Structural shifts in the workforce composition towards occupations with lower or medium automation threat lead to higher wage inequality, which is observable over the whole considered time period. The effect of automation on the wage structure results in higher inequality in the 1990s and 2000s, while it has a significant decreasing inequality effect for the upper part of the wage distribution in the more recent time period.
Automatisierung, Wachstum und Ungleichheit
(2018) Schwarzer, Johannes; Prettner, Klaus; Geiger, Niels
Die Automatisierung stellt eines der wichtigsten Phänomene dar, welche aktuell innerhalb der Wirtschaftswissenschaften und der breiteren Öffentlichkeit diskutiert werden. Dabei finden sich in Bezug auf die Frage, wie sich die Automatisierung gesamtwirtschaftlich auswirkt, sehr unterschiedliche Positionen: Am einen Ende wird auf die negativen Beschäftigungseffekte verwiesen, wenn Menschen mehr und mehr durch Maschinen ersetzt werden und ihre am Markt angebotene Arbeitsleistung nicht mehr nachgefragt somit obsolet wird. Gleichzeitig wird die Automatisierung auch für einen Anstieg der wirtschaftlichen Ungleichheit verantwortlich gemacht. Optimistischere Stimmen verweisen andererseits auf die Entwicklung seit der Industriellen Revolution, die durch fortlaufende technologische Veränderungen mit hohem Produktivitätswachstum und damit starken Wohlfahrtssteigerungen einherging, ohne dass es langfristig zu Massenarbeitslosigkeit gekommen ist. Der vorliegende Aufsatz diskutiert einige allgemein relevante empirische Daten und skizziert ein einfaches theoretisches Wachstumsmodell zur Analyse der Automatisierung. Die hierbei festgehaltenen Ergebnisse werden unter Bezugnahme auf die aktuelle wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Literatur zu den bisherigen und für die Zukunft zu erwartenden ökonomischen Effekten der Automatisierung vertieft und erweitert. Aus den verschiedenen Ansatzpunkten und Überlegungen werden schließlich wirtschaftspolitische Handlungsmöglichkeiten abgeleitet, wobei auch jeweils diskutiert wird, welchen Einschränkungen diese Maßnahmen unterliegen.
Bidirectional relationship between investor sentiment and excessreturns : new evidence from the wavelet perspective
(2015) Marczak, Martyna; Beißinger, Thomas
This paper sheds new light on the mutual relationship between investor sentiment and excess returns corresponding to the bubble component of stock prices. We propose to use the wavelet concept of the phase angle to determine the lead–lag relation between these variables. The wavelet phase angle allows for decoupling short– and long–run relations and is additionally capable of identifying time–varying comovement patterns. By applying this concept to excess returns of the monthly S&P500 index and two alternative monthly US sentiment indicators we find that in the short run (until 3 months) sentiment is leading returns whereas for periods above 3 months the opposite can be observed.
Biogas plant optimization by increasing its exibility considering uncertain revenues
(2019) Meyr, Herbert; Fichtner, Stephan
Increasing shares of volatile energy resources like wind and solar energy will require exibly schedulable energy resources to compensate for their volatility. Biogas plants can produce their energy exibly and on demand, if their design is adjusted adequately. By doing so, the biogas plant operator has the opportunity to generate more earnings by producing and selling electricity in higher price periods. In order to achieve a exibly schedulable biogas plant, the design of this plant has to be adjusted to decouple the biogas and electricity production. Therefore, biogas storage possibilities and additional electrical capacity are necessary. The investment decision about the size of the biogas storage and the additional electrical capacity depends on the uctuation of energy market prices and the availability of governmental subsidies. This work presents an approach supporting investment decisions to increase the exibility of a biogas plant by installing gas storages and additional electrical capacities under consideration of revenues out of direct marketing at the day-ahead market. In order to support the strategic, long-term investment decisions, an operative plant schedule for the future, considering different plant designs given as investment strategies, using a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model in an uncertain environment is optimized. The different designs can be evaluated by calculating the net present value (NPV). Moreover, an analysis concerning current dynamics and uncertainties within spot market prices is executed. Furthermore, the in uences concerning the variation of spot market prices compared to the influence of governmental subsidies, in particular, the exibility premium, are revealed by computational results for a fictional case example, which is based on a biogas plant in southern Germany. In addition, the robustness of the determined solution is analyzed with respect to uncertainties.
Celebrating 30 years of Innovation System research : what you need to know about Innovation Systems
(2016) Klein, Malte; Sauer, Andreas
On the occasion of the 30th anniversary of Innovation System research, this paper presents an extensive literature review on this large field of innovation research. Building on an analytical basis of the commonalities “system” and “innovation”, the authors analyze the four main Innovation System approaches: National Innovation Systems (NIS), Regional Innovation Systems (RIS), Sectoral Innovation Systems (SIS) and Technological Innovation Systems (TIS). The analysis is structured systematically along ten comprehensive criteria. Starting with the founder(s) of each theory and the research program within each Innovation System approach was developed (1), the basic thoughts of each Innovation System approach are explained (2). For five case studies most cited (3), spatial boundaries are examined (4) and units of analyses are derived (5). By comparing the underlying theoretical concept and empirical results, the authors show patterns in the evolution of Innovation System research overall. By studying the basic components (6) and a functional analysis (7), each Innovation System approach is broken down into structural pieces and functional processes. If available, the authors present one or several taxonomies (8) for each Innovation System approach and summarize similar approaches (9), in order to classify and integrate the approaches into the ongoing innovation research. The identification of further research (10) shows which steps will need to be taken in the next years in order to evolve Innovation System research further and deeper. After the conclusion, the extensive table of comparison is presented which can serve as a guideline for academics and practitioners from basic and applied science, industry or policy that need to understand which Innovation System approach may be best for their specific analytical purposes.
Children’s health, human capital accumulation, and R&D-based economic growth
(2017) Baldanzi, Annarita; Bucci, Alberto; Prettner, Klaus
We analyze the effects of childrens health on human capital accumulation and on long-run economic growth. For this purpose we design an R&D-based growth model in which the stock of human capital of the next generation is determined by parental education and health investments. We show that i) there is a complementarity between education and health: if parents want to have better educated children, they also raise health investments and vice versa; ii) parental health investments exert an unambiguously positive effect on long-run economic growth, iii) faster population growth reduces long-run economic growth. These results are consistent with the empirical evidence for modern economies in the twentieth century.
Clustering surgical procedures for master surgical scheduling
(2017) Kressner, Alexander; Schimmelpfeng, Katja
The sound management of operating rooms is a very important task in each hospital. To use this crucial resource efficiently, cyclic master surgery schedules are often developed. To derive sensible schedules, high-quality input data are necessary. In this paper, we focus on the (elective) surgical procedures’ stochastic durations to determine reasonable, cyclically scheduled surgical clusters. Therefore, we adapt the approach of van Oostrum et al (2008), which was specifically designed for clustering surgical procedures for master surgical scheduling, and present a two-stage solution approach that consists of a new construction heuristic and an improvement heuristic. We conducted a numerical study based on real-world data from a German hospital. The results reveal clusters with considerably reduced variability compared to those of van Oostrum et al(2008).
Commute time and subjective well-being in urban China
(2015) Sousa-Poza, Alfonso; Nie, Peng
Using data from the 2010 China Family Panel Studies, this study investigates the association between commute time and subjective well-being in a sample of 16- to 65-year-old employees in urban China. We find evidence that a longer commute time is associated with lower levels of both life satisfaction and happiness, especially when the commute times are extreme (≥ 1 hour per day). A multiple mediation analysis further indicates that the relation between commute time and happiness is partially mediated by time spent on daily activities, particularly sleeping. We calculate the amount of income necessary to compensate an employee’s loss in well-being at approximately 82 yuan per hour of commute time, implying that, in urban China, the annual loss of well-being amounts to around 10 billion yuan.
Competitiveness at the country-sector level : new measures based on global value chains
(2018) Beißinger, Thomas; Marczak, Martyna
We propose the so-called domestic “embodied unit labor costs” (EULC) at the country-sector level as a new cost-related basis for measures of international competitiveness. EULC take into account that a sector’s labor costs constitute only a small share of its total cost which to a large extent consist of expenses for inter- mediate goods from other sectors. In line with a simple Leontief-type model, the proposed measure is constructed as a weighted average of unit labor costs of all do- mestic sectors contributing to the final goods of a specific sector. The contribution is expressed in value-added terms and takes global supply chains into account. We also show how EULC can be consistently calculated for sectoral aggregates such as the tradable goods sector. Based on EULC we propose the “embodied real effec- tive exchange rate” (EREER) at the country-sector level as a new competitiveness indicator where the relevance of trading partners is quantified by an appropriate value-added measure. The chosen value-added concept replaces gross exports tra- ditionally used as the weight basis in effective exchange rates. Using the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) we employ the proposed indicators to shed new light on changes in cost competitiveness at the sectoral level for Germany, and compare the empirical evidence with selected other euro area countries.
Continuity under a different name, the outcome of privatisation in Serbia
(2016) Geloso, Vincent; Ivanovic, Vladan; Kufenko, Vadim; Begovic, Boris; Stanisic, Nenad
Normally, privatisation is seen as beneficial. In the case of Serbia, the results are disappointing. This paper considers the failure of privatisation in Serbia – a latecomer in the matter – where privatisation was partly a result of exogenous pressures. In Serbia, a sizeable number of privatised firms were bought by bureaucrats and politicians and all firms were subjected to a period of supervision. We argue that this process of privatisation was designed to allow rentseekers to conserve their privileges through asset stripping and that this explains the failure. In order to do so, we perform empirical analysis of the determinants of liquidation, merger and bankruptcy of privatised firms from 2002 to 2015. We construct a novel data set from primary sources, free of the ‘survivorship bias’ and containing proxies for various types of owners, indirect signs of asset stripping strategy and a broad range of controls. Our results indicate that firms owned by politicians face significantly higher risks of bankruptcy, especially after the end of supervision.
Data quality and information loss in standardised interpolated path analysis : quality measures and guidelines
(2019) Schoop, Mareike; Witt, Josepha; Schmid, Andreas; Melzer, Philipp; Kaya, Muhammed; Lenz, Annika
Standardised interpolated path analysis (SIPA) is a method to investigate negotiation processes making different negotiation histories comparable. Due to its interpolation approach, researchers employing SIPA must take data quality and potential information loss into account to maximise the method’s explanatory power. This paper presents quality measures and applies them to two negotiation datasets for deriving meaningful boundaries. Using these quality measures enables researchers to compare SIPA across segmentations, variables, and datasets also providing outlier analysis.
Decomposing a decomposition : within-country differences and the role of structural change in productivity growth
(2019) Mühlen, Henning; Escobar, Octavio
In this article, we investigate the relevance of structural change in country wide productivity growth considering within-country differences. For this purpose, we propose a two-step decomposition approach that accounts for differences among subnational units. To highlight the relevance of our procedure compared to the prevalent approach in the existing development literature (which usually neglects subnational differences), we show an application with data for the Mexican economy. Specifically, we contrast findings obtained from country-sector data on the one hand with those obtained from (more disaggregated) state-sector data on the other hand. One main insight is that the qualitative and quantitative results differ substantially between the two approaches. Our procedure reveals that structural change appeared to be growth-reducing during the period from 2005 to 2016. We show that this negative effect is driven mainly by the reallocation of (low-skilled) labor within subnational units.
Democratic prospects in Imperial Russia : the revolution of 1905 and the political stock market
(2015) Opitz, Alexander
This paper assesses the attitude of investors towards Democratic change by performing an event study using Russian government bonds. The Revolution of 1905 offers an ideal occasion as, alongside the related revolutionary events, it was accompanied by two opposing constitutional changes within a short period of time. This study contributes to the debate as to whether Imperial Russia could possibly have followed other Western European states, i.e. gradually adopting a democratic rule, or whether a revolution was inevitable – as the writing of Soviet history suggests. Furthermore, the Russo-Japanese War is taken into consideration. The results are basically in line with the literature on the impact of wars on capital markets. Prices of two types of bonds on both the Saint Petersburg and the Berlin stock exchange are employed. As it turns out, investors in the East and West were largely consistent in their reactions.

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