Browsing by Subject "Agent"

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Agent-based modeling of climate change adaptation in agriculture : a case study in the Central Swabian Jura
(2014) Troost, Christian; Berger, Thomas
Using the MPMAS multi-agent software, the present thesis implements an agro-economic agent-based model to analyze climate change adaptation of agricultural production in the Central Swabian Jura. It contributes to the DFG PAK 346 FOR 1695 research projects dedicated to improve the understanding of processes that shape structure and functions of agricultural landscapes in the context of climate change at regional scale. In the context of this example, this thesis discusses, develops and tests novel approaches to deal with four notorious challenges that have so far hampered the empirical use of agent-based models for applied economic analysis: data availability, process uncertainty, model validity and computational requirements. The model is used to examine climatic effects on agriculture, changes in agricultural price responses and biogas support and agri-environmental policies illustrating the applicability of the model to adaptation analysis. The first part of the thesis is dedicated to a methodological discussion of the use of mathematical programming-based multi-agent systems, such as MPMAS, for the analysis of agricultural adaptation to climate change. It synthesizes knowledge about the potential impacts of climate change and processes of farmer adaptation and reviews existing agent-based models for their potential contribution to adaptation analysis. The major focus of the first part is a discussion of available approaches to model validation, calibration and uncertainty analysis and their suitability for the use with mathematical programming-based agent-based models. This discussion is based on four principles required to ensure the validity of conclusions drawn from modeling studies: (i) a transparent model documentation, (ii) that the invariant elements of the model can really be expected to be invariant between scenarios assessed, (iii) that empirical calibration of the model is limited to the extent warranted by available observation and knowledge about the expected error distribution, and (iv) that the effect of process uncertainty on the conclusions is evaluated and communicated. Based on these conclusions, generic extensions of the MPMAS toolbox are developed to allow the application of suitable approaches for validation and uncertainty analysis. The second part of the thesis describes the application of the newly developed methodology in the construction and use of the Central Swabian Jura model. The model focuses on an endogenous representation of heterogeneity in agent behavior, an empirical parameterization of the model, and an incorporation of climate effects on possible crop rotations and suitable days for field work besides the expected effects on yields. It extends the demographic, investment and land market components of MPMAS to improve the simulation of structural change over time. The model was used to analyze potential effects of climate change adaptation on agricultural production and land use in the study area. The results show that besides effects on yields also other climate change-induced effects on the conditions of agricultural production may have important impacts on land use decisions of farmers and deserve more attention in climate change impact analysis. Potential impacts of changes in the time slots suitable for field work and an additional rotation option are predicted to be comparable to the impact of the changes in yields predicted by a crop growth model. Results point to an expansion of wheat and silage maize areas at the expense of barley areas. The partial crowding out of summer barley by wheat area held for current price relations and is less strong at higher relative prices for summer barley. Price response analysis indicated that winter wheat production enters into a substitutive relationship with summer barley production under climate change conditions, while competition with winter barley area diminishes. This leads also to a higher elasticity of the wheat area with respect to relative summer barley prices. The model was then used to analyze biogas support through the Renewable Energy Act (EEG) and the support for grassland extensification and crop rotation diversification through the MEKA scheme. Especially simulated participation in crop rotation diversification is strongly reduced in the climate change scenarios, while the investments in biogas plants are slightly increased. The conditions established by the latest EEG revision imply that further development of biogas capacity will crucially depend on the existence of demand for excess process heat, because the alternative option of using high manure shares seems to be rather unattractive for farmers in the area according to the simulation results.
Multiagent resource allocation in service networks
(2014) Karänke, Paul; Kirn, Stefan
The term service network (SN) denotes a network of software services in which complex software applications are provided to customers by aggregating multiple elementary services. These networks are based on the service-oriented computing (SOC) paradigm, which defines the fundamental technical concepts for software services over electronic networks, e.g., Web services and, most recently, Cloud services. For the provision of software services to customers, software service providers (SPs) have to allocate their scarce computational resources (i.e., hardware and software) of a certain quality to customer requests. The SOC paradigm facilitates interoperability over organizational boundaries by representing business relationships on the software system level. Composite software services aggregate multiple software services into software applications. This aggregation is denoted as service composition. The loose coupling of services leads to SNs as dynamic entities with changing interdependencies between services. For composite software services, these dependencies exist across SN tiers; they result from the procurement of services, which are themselves utilized to produce additional services, and constitute a major problem for resource allocation in SNs. If these dependencies are not considered, the fulfillment of agreements may become unaccomplishable (overcommitment). Hence, the consideration of service dependencies is crucial for the allocation of service providers resources to fulfill customer requests in SNs. However, existing resource allocation methods, which could consider these dependencies -- such as combinatorial auctions with a central auctioneer for the whole SN -- are not applicable, since there are no central coordinating entities in SNs. The application of an allocation mechanism that does not consider these dependencies might negatively affect the actual service delivery; results are penalty payments as well as a damage to the reputation of the providers. This research is conducted in accordance to the design science paradigm in information system research. It is a problem-solving paradigm, which targets the construction and evaluation of IT artifacts. The objectives of this research are to develop and evaluate an allocation protocol, which can consider multi-tier service dependencies without the existence of central coordinating entities. Therefore, an interaction protocol engineering (IPE) perspective is applied to solve the problem of multi-tier dependencies in resource allocation. This approach provides a procedure model for designing interaction protocols for multiagent systems, and is closely related to the well-established area of communication protocol engineering. Automated resource allocation in SNs is analyzed in this research by representing the actors as autonomous software agents in the software system. The actors delegate their objectives to their software agents, which conduct the negotiations for service provision on their behalf. Thus, these agents communicate concerning the resource allocation; in this process, the sequence of communication interactions is crucial to the problem addressed. Interaction protocols define a structured exchange of defined messages between agents; they facilitate agent conversations. When multiple agents have to reach agreements by negotiation and bargaining, such as in case with allocating scarce resources, game theory provides means to formalize and analyze the most rational choice of actions for the interacting agents. Based on a formal framework for resource allocation in SNs, this research first performs a game-theoretic problem analysis; it is concerned with the existence, as well as the complexity of computing optimal allocations. In addition, Nash equilibria are analyzed for optimal allocations. Second, a distributed, auction-based allocation protocol, which prevents overcommitments and guarantees socially optimal allocations for single customer requests under certain assumptions, is proposed. Therefore, a game-theoretic model and an operationizable specification of the protocol are presented. Third, it is formally verified that the protocol enables multi-tier resource allocation and avoids overcommitments by proofs for the game-theoretic model and by model checking for the interaction protocol specification; using the model checker Spin, safety properties like the absence of deadlock are as well formally verified as the protocol enabling multi-tier resource allocation. Fourth, the efficacy and the benefits of the proposed protocol are demonstrated by multiagent simulation for concurrent customers. The experimental evaluation provides evidence of the protocols efficiency compared to the socially optimal allocation as a centralized benchmark in different settings, e.g., network topologies and different bidding policies.
Verhaltensmodell für Softwareagenten im Public Goods Game
(2011) Kirn, Stefan; Müller, Marcus; Stern, Guillaume; Jacob, Ansger
Gegenstand der vorliegenden Arbeit ist das Verhaltensmodell von Softwareagenten in einem Public Goods Game. Agenten im Sinne der Arbeit besitzen jeweils eigene, individuelle Ziele und müssen sich im Hinblick auf ein übergeordnetes Gesamtziel im Multiagentensystem koordinieren. Dabei hängen die individuell und kollektiv erzielbaren Ergebnisse von der Wahl der Verhaltensmodelle der Agenten ab. Die Wahl eines rein eigennützigen Verhaltens kann zu Nutzeneinbußen führen; die Wahl eines selbstlosen Verhaltens kann die individuell erzielbaren Ergebnisse eines Agenten massiv beeinträchtigen, falls andere Agenten im System eigennützig spielen. Die Auswirkungen verschiedener, aus der sozio-ökonomischen Theorie entlehnter Verhaltensmodelle in unterschiedlich gestalteten Agenten-Gesellschaften wird mittels einer Simulation untersucht. Die vorliegende Arbeit soll somit einen Beitrag liefern, um auf Basis deskriptiver sozio-ökonomischer Verhaltensmodelle Aussagen über das Verhalten von Softwareagenten (präskriptive Modelle) zu erlauben. Die Erkenntnisse helfen Entwicklern von Multiagentensystemen bei der Implementierung eines problemadäquaten Agentenverhaltens.