Browsing by Subject "Agri-environmental policy"

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Agent-based modeling of climate change adaptation in agriculture : a case study in the Central Swabian Jura
(2014) Troost, Christian; Berger, Thomas
Using the MPMAS multi-agent software, the present thesis implements an agro-economic agent-based model to analyze climate change adaptation of agricultural production in the Central Swabian Jura. It contributes to the DFG PAK 346 FOR 1695 research projects dedicated to improve the understanding of processes that shape structure and functions of agricultural landscapes in the context of climate change at regional scale. In the context of this example, this thesis discusses, develops and tests novel approaches to deal with four notorious challenges that have so far hampered the empirical use of agent-based models for applied economic analysis: data availability, process uncertainty, model validity and computational requirements. The model is used to examine climatic effects on agriculture, changes in agricultural price responses and biogas support and agri-environmental policies illustrating the applicability of the model to adaptation analysis. The first part of the thesis is dedicated to a methodological discussion of the use of mathematical programming-based multi-agent systems, such as MPMAS, for the analysis of agricultural adaptation to climate change. It synthesizes knowledge about the potential impacts of climate change and processes of farmer adaptation and reviews existing agent-based models for their potential contribution to adaptation analysis. The major focus of the first part is a discussion of available approaches to model validation, calibration and uncertainty analysis and their suitability for the use with mathematical programming-based agent-based models. This discussion is based on four principles required to ensure the validity of conclusions drawn from modeling studies: (i) a transparent model documentation, (ii) that the invariant elements of the model can really be expected to be invariant between scenarios assessed, (iii) that empirical calibration of the model is limited to the extent warranted by available observation and knowledge about the expected error distribution, and (iv) that the effect of process uncertainty on the conclusions is evaluated and communicated. Based on these conclusions, generic extensions of the MPMAS toolbox are developed to allow the application of suitable approaches for validation and uncertainty analysis. The second part of the thesis describes the application of the newly developed methodology in the construction and use of the Central Swabian Jura model. The model focuses on an endogenous representation of heterogeneity in agent behavior, an empirical parameterization of the model, and an incorporation of climate effects on possible crop rotations and suitable days for field work besides the expected effects on yields. It extends the demographic, investment and land market components of MPMAS to improve the simulation of structural change over time. The model was used to analyze potential effects of climate change adaptation on agricultural production and land use in the study area. The results show that besides effects on yields also other climate change-induced effects on the conditions of agricultural production may have important impacts on land use decisions of farmers and deserve more attention in climate change impact analysis. Potential impacts of changes in the time slots suitable for field work and an additional rotation option are predicted to be comparable to the impact of the changes in yields predicted by a crop growth model. Results point to an expansion of wheat and silage maize areas at the expense of barley areas. The partial crowding out of summer barley by wheat area held for current price relations and is less strong at higher relative prices for summer barley. Price response analysis indicated that winter wheat production enters into a substitutive relationship with summer barley production under climate change conditions, while competition with winter barley area diminishes. This leads also to a higher elasticity of the wheat area with respect to relative summer barley prices. The model was then used to analyze biogas support through the Renewable Energy Act (EEG) and the support for grassland extensification and crop rotation diversification through the MEKA scheme. Especially simulated participation in crop rotation diversification is strongly reduced in the climate change scenarios, while the investments in biogas plants are slightly increased. The conditions established by the latest EEG revision imply that further development of biogas capacity will crucially depend on the existence of demand for excess process heat, because the alternative option of using high manure shares seems to be rather unattractive for farmers in the area according to the simulation results.
Effects of agricultural commercialization on land use and pest management of smallholder upland farms in Thailand
(2016) Grovermann, Suthathip; Berger, Thomas
Over recent years, economic development, policy changes, new technologies and population growth have been motivating farmers in Thailand to intensify and commercialize their production activities. As part of this agricultural commercialization and intensification process, Thai upland farmers have adapted their farming practices to increase crop production and productivity levels. This thesis clearly demonstrates that there is a positive relationship between land use intensification/commercialization and the use of chemical-based pest management activities, i.e. farmers have increasingly relied on the use of chemicals for the protection of their crops. As part of the agricultural intensification and commercialization process, concerns about the potentially negative impact of pesticide use is often downplayed, while the benefits of pesticide use in terms of improved crop returns ignore the indirect costs they also incur. This has also led to a situation in which local farmers do not always use pesticides in an appropriate way; they tend to overuse and misuse the chemicals, to avoid losses among their high-value crops. Due to farmers’ limited awareness of and lack of protection against the potential dangers inherent in chemical pesticide use, they still use pesticides which contain cheap compounds such as the herbicides Paraquat and Glyphosate. The application of these chemicals is restricted in a number of other countries, but these represent two of the three most commonly used pesticides in the study area. The survey described here sought to provide evidence that agricultural commercialization in Thailand over recent years has led to a reduction in the variety of pest management practices applied, and that many Thai farmers have become completely dependent on the use of agrochemicals, expecting that this approach will fully prevent any losses in crop yields. In this context, it can be observed that farmers have become locked into using chemical pest control methods, creating a situation in which attempting to control one risk through the increasingly heavy and exclusive use of pesticides, has led to a number of other, new risks developing. This research also reveals that market prices, pests and diseases have become the dominant risks affecting farm performance within the Thai commercial farm sector, while among Thai subsistence farmers the loss of family labor is of key concern. The farmers in the study area have a variety of attitudes towards risk, and differences in expected rates of return influence the types of risk protection tools used. The findings show that agricultural commercialization is associated with a rapid adoption of synthetic pesticides and an exponential growth in the quantity of pesticides applied per hectare. As the risk management strategies used by commercial farmers are mostly aimed at crop protection, they use large quantities of synthetic pesticides to manage crop pests and diseases. The present research also finds that the effectiveness of pesticide use increases significantly as levels of commercialization increase. Pesticide use is perceived as increasingly useful in this process, being considered an essential factor for raising agricultural output and farm income. However, there is a need to pay more attention to the potentially adverse effects of pesticide use on human health and the environment and to improve producers’ level of understanding of the risks involved in pesticide use, which will help them make better decisions regarding the risks and consequences involved. A number of studies have suggested that pesticide regulations in Thailand should be better enforced, that consumer demand for certified products should be encouraged, and that training on food safety should be offered to farmers. The Thai government has reacted to these calls by introducing policies and projects aimed at the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices; however, these policies have not been promoted effectively, and so have not fixed the core problem. The Q-GAP program is a good example of this. This thesis reveals that Thai upland farmers still do not understand the logic behind the program introduced, and so lack any motivation to follow sustainable farming practices. This situation is made worse by the lack of any effective program implementation and follow-up activities, such as farm auditing. The Q-GAP program has been implemented with a strong focus on farm auditing and residue testing, and little focus on the positive consequences of a reduction in pesticide use levels. The program also does not provide farmers with suitable alternatives to manage their pest problems. Certified farmers continue to almost entirely depend on synthetic pest control. In principle, under the program farmers are encouraged to practice integrated pest management (IPM) methods in order to achieve Q-GAP certification. But it was found that a considerable number of farmers were not familiar with the term IPM and have a limited understanding of the approach. IPM offers alternative pest management methods to farmers and also takes into account traditional pest control methods, not just the use of pesticides. Therefore it could have a positive role to play in helping to reduce pesticide use. However, in reality, the promotion of integrated pest management methods is not enough in isolation. As this thesis shows by means of an ex-ante assessment of pesticide use reduction strategies with the MPMAS simulation package, the use of a combination of measures, such as the promotion of IPM through financial adoption incentives combined with the introduction of a sizeable sales tax on pesticides, could lead to a very substantial reduction in pesticide use – by up to 34% on current levels, without adversely effecting general farm income levels. Thus, policymakers should promote alternative pesticide use reduction strategies by combining pesticide taxation with the introduction of integrated pest management methods, the application of a price premium on safe agricultural produce or the introduction of subsidies for bio-pesticides. Furthermore, there is a need to raise farmers awareness about pesticide risks and to increase investment in the diffusion of integrated pest management practices. Thai upland farmers might be willing to introduce more sustainable agricultural methods if they were to fully understand the consequences of pesticide use on their health and the environment, as well as know more about the biology, behaviors and physiology of the pests themselves. Building knowledge is critical in this regard. To achieve this, there needs to be more interaction between researchers, extension workers and farmers, plus more policy options introduced to support farmers in their transition to a more market-oriented production environment.