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Agrarökonomische Analyse von Verfahren zur Erzeugung lignozellulosehaltiger Biomasse und deren Akzeptanz in der Landwirtschaft Baden-Württembergs
(2018) Gillich, Caroline Sophie-Theresia; Lippert, Christian
In a future bio-based economy, agricultural production of renewable raw materials for the production of plant biomass is supposed to play a central role. This also includes the perennial crops short rotation coppice (SRC) and miscanthus. A material utilization, particularly of the produced lignocellulose, in chemical industry can contribute to a bio-based economic activity. However, the cultivation of SRC and miscanthus is not yet widespread. For a variety of reasons, such as lack of knowledge or low profitability, farmers have not strongly implemented these crops so far. To find out, which factors do have an impact on the cultivation of SRC and miscanthus, farmer workshops with surveys were conducted in selected regions of Baden-Wuerttemberg. Additionally, by means of a choice experiment, the preferences of the farmers for the cultivation of SRC and miscanthus were elicited. As the introduction of new production methods is often linked to increased risks, in addition the risk attitude of the farmers was determined by means of a “Holt and Laury” lottery. The surveys took place in the Vergleichsgebietsgruppen (VGG) „Unterland / Gaeue“, „Rhine / Lake Constance“ and „Bauland / Hohenlohe“ in Baden-Wuerttemberg. For all VGG site specific profitability and risk analyses were performed. The mentioned VGG were identified as most suitable for SRC and miscanthus. In total, 117 farmers participated in nine organized workshops. In the surveyed sample more farmers are cultivating SRC than in the entire farmer population. For the analysis of the choice experiment Random Parameter Logit Models were used. The following results are to be interpreted under ceteris paribus conditions. Generally, the part-worth utility of the cultivation of SRC and miscanthus is negative. Additionally to the opportunity costs of land, the expected average compensation payments amount to € 460 and € 400 per hectare and year for SRC and miscanthus. However, in this context farmers do not significantly distinguish between the two perennial crops. As expected an increasing profitability of these production activities increases the utility, whereas an increasing variability of contribution margins and increasing investment costs reduce the utility. It should be noted that a guaranteed purchase contract for the harvested crop over the whole cultivation period increases the utility of the permanent crops at a significant level. Through this the negative part-worth utility of SRC or miscanthus could be compensated almost completely. If colleagues in the near surrounding already cultivate these crops, this also increases the utility. Among the respondents a significant preference heterogeneity exists for both production activities and all attributes considered in the choice experiment. Further model estimations with interaction terms to explain part of the heterogeneity show that, among other things, an increasing farm size has a negative impact on the probability of cultivating SRC. An increasing age of the farm manager also reduces the utility of the cultivation of SRC and miscanthus. An increasing work experience has a positive effect on the probability of choosing SRC. Moreover, an increase of the initial investment cost reduces the utility of the participants the more, the more risk averse they are. In this context, the implicitly assumed interest rates, deduced from the model and assuming a farmer with average risk attitude, are in a realistic range between 2.3 % and 4.1 %. Based on the estimated part-worth utility distribution parameters of the model without interaction terms, finally supply functions were derived by means of Monte Carlo simulations, to illustrate cultivation potentials of SRC and miscanthus at various wood chip prices and for different scenarios. The potentials of SRC and miscanthus estimated this way are more realistic than former GIS-based potentials as not only location factors but also empirically found preferences of the farmers and opportunity costs of farmland were taken into account. Under the assumptions made, the maximum expectable potential of SRC and miscanthus on arable land in the surveyed region amounts in each case to 30,000 hectares. It should be noticed, that this cultivation potential is relatively low. The results of the choice experiment show that - as long as this is considered to be justified from an economic point of view - either a direct subsidy by the government, the cultivation in clusters or purchase guarantees for the farmers by the processing industry can strongly promote the cultivation of perennial lignocellulose containing crops.