Browsing by Subject "CGE model"

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A 2014 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Uzbekistan with a focus on the agricultural sector
(2021) Wieck, Christine; Bozorov, Abdurashid; Feuerbacher, Arndt
Social accounting matrices (SAMs) are the core underlying data for economy-wide simulation models such as computable general equilibrium models. This paper reports the development of a SAM for Uzbekistan for the year 2014. The last SAM developed for Uzbekistan is based on the year 2001 (Müller, 2006) and Uzbekistan is listed among the top ten countries by GDP and population by the Global Trade and Analysis Project for which a recent input-output is missing. The SAM documented in this technical paper is characterized by a detailed representation of the agricultural sector. Generally, data availability in Uzbekistan is a challenge and the development process had to rely on myriad data sources. The final SAM values are estimated using an information-theoretic, cross-entropy approach. Using a Bayesian perspective, the degree of uncertainty of cell entries’ prior values reflected the availability and quality of data sources. In total, this SAM consists of 88 accounts. There are 31 commodity accounts and 31 accounts describe economic activities of which 17 activities are part of the agricultural sector. The factor accounts comprise five types of labor, capital, and main natural resources: land and water. There are three household accounts, one government, and five tax accounts. The authors hope that this SAM will allow researchers to investigate research questions that are of high priority for Uzbekistan’s future economic development, particularly those related to the future role of agriculture and water.
Economy-wide policy modeling of the food-energy-water nexus : identifying synergies and tradeoffs on food, energy, and water security in Malawi
(2017) Schünemann, Franziska; Zeller, Manfred
Food, energy, and water are essential goods for human survival. The three goods are intrinsically connected through economic consumption and production linkages as well as ecological processes. All three are dependent on limited resources which are threatened by global drivers in the form of economic growth, population growth, and climate change that are particularly affecting developing countries. Therefore, a nexus perspective that simultaneously encompasses food, energy, and water has become crucial to avoid resource inefficiencies and to ensure the provision of the three goods for the most vulnerable people. This dissertation contributes to the research on the food-energy-water (FEW) nexus approach through first developing integrated modeling frameworks that capture the linkages between food, energy, and water, in order to secondly identify those policy measures that maximize the synergies for food, energy, and water security and minimize the tradeoffs. To this end, three studies analyze four policies – biofuels production, irrigation expansion, improved cookstoves and agroforestry – that directly affect food, energy, and water security and provide a large scope for realizing synergies. The empirical findings of this dissertation show that policy measures indeed produce some tradeoffs between FEW security, but that – if policies are designed correctly – the tradeoffs can be minimized while simultaneously maximizing the synergies. These findings are an essential contribution to the literature through proving that even in a world with enormous pressures on limited resources, prudent policy making can provide FEW security for all people. Finally, the results demonstrate that the development of integrated modeling frameworks is vital for quantitative analyses of policies that simultaneously affect the economic, social, and environmental spheres to identify the synergies and tradeoffs. This dissertation makes an important methodological contribution to integrated environmental-economic modeling of developing countries and may serve as a starting point for future research on linking the economy and the environment in models.