Browsing by Subject "Discrete choice experiment"

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Agrarökonomische Analyse von Verfahren zur Erzeugung lignozellulosehaltiger Biomasse und deren Akzeptanz in der Landwirtschaft Baden-Württembergs
(2018) Gillich, Caroline Sophie-Theresia; Lippert, Christian
In a future bio-based economy, agricultural production of renewable raw materials for the production of plant biomass is supposed to play a central role. This also includes the perennial crops short rotation coppice (SRC) and miscanthus. A material utilization, particularly of the produced lignocellulose, in chemical industry can contribute to a bio-based economic activity. However, the cultivation of SRC and miscanthus is not yet widespread. For a variety of reasons, such as lack of knowledge or low profitability, farmers have not strongly implemented these crops so far. To find out, which factors do have an impact on the cultivation of SRC and miscanthus, farmer workshops with surveys were conducted in selected regions of Baden-Wuerttemberg. Additionally, by means of a choice experiment, the preferences of the farmers for the cultivation of SRC and miscanthus were elicited. As the introduction of new production methods is often linked to increased risks, in addition the risk attitude of the farmers was determined by means of a “Holt and Laury” lottery. The surveys took place in the Vergleichsgebietsgruppen (VGG) „Unterland / Gaeue“, „Rhine / Lake Constance“ and „Bauland / Hohenlohe“ in Baden-Wuerttemberg. For all VGG site specific profitability and risk analyses were performed. The mentioned VGG were identified as most suitable for SRC and miscanthus. In total, 117 farmers participated in nine organized workshops. In the surveyed sample more farmers are cultivating SRC than in the entire farmer population. For the analysis of the choice experiment Random Parameter Logit Models were used. The following results are to be interpreted under ceteris paribus conditions. Generally, the part-worth utility of the cultivation of SRC and miscanthus is negative. Additionally to the opportunity costs of land, the expected average compensation payments amount to € 460 and € 400 per hectare and year for SRC and miscanthus. However, in this context farmers do not significantly distinguish between the two perennial crops. As expected an increasing profitability of these production activities increases the utility, whereas an increasing variability of contribution margins and increasing investment costs reduce the utility. It should be noted that a guaranteed purchase contract for the harvested crop over the whole cultivation period increases the utility of the permanent crops at a significant level. Through this the negative part-worth utility of SRC or miscanthus could be compensated almost completely. If colleagues in the near surrounding already cultivate these crops, this also increases the utility. Among the respondents a significant preference heterogeneity exists for both production activities and all attributes considered in the choice experiment. Further model estimations with interaction terms to explain part of the heterogeneity show that, among other things, an increasing farm size has a negative impact on the probability of cultivating SRC. An increasing age of the farm manager also reduces the utility of the cultivation of SRC and miscanthus. An increasing work experience has a positive effect on the probability of choosing SRC. Moreover, an increase of the initial investment cost reduces the utility of the participants the more, the more risk averse they are. In this context, the implicitly assumed interest rates, deduced from the model and assuming a farmer with average risk attitude, are in a realistic range between 2.3 % and 4.1 %. Based on the estimated part-worth utility distribution parameters of the model without interaction terms, finally supply functions were derived by means of Monte Carlo simulations, to illustrate cultivation potentials of SRC and miscanthus at various wood chip prices and for different scenarios. The potentials of SRC and miscanthus estimated this way are more realistic than former GIS-based potentials as not only location factors but also empirically found preferences of the farmers and opportunity costs of farmland were taken into account. Under the assumptions made, the maximum expectable potential of SRC and miscanthus on arable land in the surveyed region amounts in each case to 30,000 hectares. It should be noticed, that this cultivation potential is relatively low. The results of the choice experiment show that - as long as this is considered to be justified from an economic point of view - either a direct subsidy by the government, the cultivation in clusters or purchase guarantees for the farmers by the processing industry can strongly promote the cultivation of perennial lignocellulose containing crops.
Analyses of quantitative traits in varying environments in pigs and Brown Swiss cattle
(2020) Imort-Just, Nina Annik; Bennewitz, Jörn
Complex breeding programmes are used worldwide to achieve genetic progress in quantitative traits. These programmes are basically similarly structured, independent of breed and species, and are characterised by successive steps. The adjustment and revision of breeding programmes is of ongoing interest due to several reasons, e.g. research findings and various political, economic, social and ethical aspects. For the long-term improvement of livestock populations, multiple traits are included in the breeding goals of such programmes. Unfavourable genetic correlations between economically important production traits and functional traits compromise the genetic progress in animal health and welfare. Novel functional and behavioural traits and the adjustment of relative economic weights for the optimisation of total merit indices are investigated in research projects. In addition, genotype by environment interactions (GxE) can influence the genetic improvement of livestock populations and their consideration is crucial due to the globalisation of breeding structures and associated varying production environments. The main objectives of this thesis were 1) to investigate novel behavioural traits in pig breeding, 2) to derive environmental-specific relative economic weights based on consumers preferences for Brown Swiss cattle, 3) to estimate GxE at a trait and an index level by applying bivariate sire models in Brown Swiss cattle and 4) to analyse GxE for different production and functional traits in Brown Swiss cattle using reaction norm models. In Chapter 1 genetic parameters for mothering ability traits were estimated. Heritabilities (h²) were estimated by applying a linear mixed- and a threshold model, ranging between 0.02 to 0.07 and 0.05 to 0.15, respectively. The slightly higher estimates for the repeatability ranged from 0.05 to 0.09 and from 0.08 to 0.17, indicating the influence of the permanent environment. Highest h² were found for the group- and nursing behaviour of the sows. Highest genetic correlations were found between group-/nursing behaviour and litter balance and piglet weaning weight with estimates between 0.71 and 0.86. Accelerating genetic gain for improved mothering ability in sows is possible. In Chapter 2, the importance of breeding traits of Brown Swiss cattle in terms of selection decisions of farm managers was evaluated by using a discrete choice experiment (DCE). Environment-specific relative economic weights (REW) and the marginal willingness to pay were estimated by using a conditional logit model. Several trait complexes, the semen price, interactions between these traits and specific characteristics of the farms were included. Farmers showed highest preferences for the milk value, conformation/udder and fitness. Interactions indicated a great importance of the fitness trait complex for organically managed farms compared to conventional farmers. The latter weighted the milk value and the trait complex conformation/udder high. The method is suitable to judge farmers’ preferences for specific traits, especially those which have not yet been monetarily evaluated. Chapter 3 investigated GxE at a trait and an index level for Brown Swiss sires. Bivariate sire models were used to estimate genetic correlations between organic and conventional production systems and two altitude level of the farms for milk production traits and several functional traits. Furthermore, to determine possible GxE and rerankings at an index level, total merit indices for the sires were calculated. The genetic correlations were high between the analysed environments, ranging from 0.79 (first insemination to conception between different altitude levels) to 0.99 (calving to first insemination, cystic ovaries, maternal stillbirth between production systems). The results indicate no severe GxE at a trait level. No putative GxE effects were found for the production system environments at an index level. In Chapter 4, GxE for various production and functional traits in Brown Swiss cattle were analysed using random regression reaction norm models. The continuous environmental descriptor milk energy yield (MEY) was calculated as a linear combination of average herd effects, obtained from the routine breeding value estimation, of milk-, fat- and protein yield. The applied reaction norm model included a random sire effect and a random sire slope effect (environmental sensitivity), i.e. the random regression coefficient of the regression of a specific sire on the environmental descriptor MEY. To investigate putative GxE effects, breeding values for the sires were estimated. Results showed no severe GxE for the functional traits but for the production trait fat yield. In addition, the slope variances as descriptors of the environmental sensitivity and the Spearman rank correlations between the estimated breeding values of the sires at different environmental levels indicate no severe GxE for the investigated traits.
Analysis of the impact, costs and acceptance of lapwing plots as a protection measure for farmland birds in Germany
(2023) Buschmann, Christoph; Lippert, Christian
Biodiversity in the agricultural landscape is declining in the European Union (EU) including Germany. This trend is also observed for farmland bird populations that are used as an important indicator of overall species diversity. Among farmland birds, the Northern lapwing (Vanellus vanellus) is an indicator species whose population has been particularly affected. Populations suffer inter alia from frequent cultivation measures and degraded habitat quality on agriculturally used land. To improve the status of farmland bird populations, appropriate measures are called for both in the EU and on German national level in different strategy papers. The European Commission has set the concrete target to increase farmland bird populations by 30 % until 2050. Despite the high demand to plan the implementation of biodiversity strategies, literature provides little guidance for farmland birds, i. e. ex-ante modelling of how many protection measures and how much compensation are needed to achieve certain time-bound conservation targets. The thesis addresses this research gap by analysing the impact of the conservation measure ‘lapwing plot’. Lapwing plots are fallow sections within arable fields that can be used as feeding areas and - during the breeding season - provide cover for the chicks from predators. In detail, the thesis pursues three objectives: First, to project how much lapwing plot provision is required to meet specific time-bound conservation targets on a national level by using a spatially explicit population viability analysis (PVA). Second, to calculate the corresponding costs based on implementation and opportunity costs (i. e. gross margins forgone) for compensating farmers who participate in a lapwing plot agri-environmental scheme (AES). For this, the PVA is combined with an economic analysis. Third, to analyse the acceptance of a lapwing plot AES by surveying farmers with a discrete choice experiment (DCE). PVA results show that the lapwing population in Germany could decline from 70.000 breeding pairs in 2006 to 12.000 or 23.000 pairs (depending on model assumptions) in 2055 if no further conservation measures were taken and land use remained stable. To achieve the ’30 % plus conservation target’ of the EU Commission for the lapwing, 30 % or 65 % of the breeding pairs need to be protected by a lapwing plot in arable land or a comparably effective measure in grassland. The corresponding costs for protection on arable land range from on average 1.1 to 5.6 million € per year depending on model assumptions. Costs may, however, be reduced by up to 52 % with a regionally focused economic optimisation. Since AES participation is voluntary, acceptance is of crucial importance. The DCE conducted to analyse acceptance considers different design options if the lapwing plot were introduced as an AES and identifies possible drivers and inhibitors of farmers’ participation. Remarkably, those design options which ensure that the AES can be co-financed by the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD), i. e., a participation period of five years and the nature of the relevant sanctions regime, are a particular acceptance barrier. However, so far EAFRD - as part of the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) - has been the most important funding instrument for AESs. Therefore, the thesis outlines how the lack of EAFRD acceptance could be addressed in the new CAP period 2023-2027 and points out alternative funding instruments. In conclusion, the lapwing plot is - according to the PVA results - a suitable measure to meet conservation objectives, such as the ’30 % plus conservation target’ of the EU Commission, if it is implemented to a sufficient extent. However, it is questionable whether a sufficient extent of implementation can be achieved if the lapwing plot is put into practice relying on voluntary AES with the available funding instruments and limited budgets. This would require a high level of acceptance among farmers in the affected regions. Therefore, the lapwing plot needs to be combined with other conservation approaches including the expansion of protected areas and in-field measures, such as the reduced use of fertilisers and pesticides. For policy makers, it is recommended to develop combined solutions in overall strategies and perform corresponding ex-ante modelling. For such strategies the thesis provides an important basis and with the PVA a suitable expandable model.
Discrete Choice Experimente zur Analyse des Entscheidungsverhaltens von Landwirten am Beispiel von Vorkaufsrechten für landwirtschaftliche Nutzflächen und Ertragsversicherungen
(2022) Moog, Kristina; Bahrs, Enno
Farmers in Germany are currently facing new challenges, which require operational adaptation and associated decisions. As a result of climate change, extreme weather events are occurring with increasing frequency, which can damage or even destroy agricultural harvests. For this reason, farmers are faced with the decision of whether and how they can protect their crops from damaging events and which instruments are best suited for this purpose. However, the increasing prices on the farmland market and the associated appearance of non-agricultural investors on the farmland market also mean that land can become more expensive for farmers. The possibility of privileging farmers towards investors in the form of pre-emptive rights, which is being discussed politically in this context, is an instrument for shaping the farmland market. This outlines the focus of this work, which is to examine the decision-making behaviour of farmers in connection with these exemplary current challenges and to determine what willingness there is on the part of farmers to pay or accept certain solutions for overcoming these decision-making challenges and what benefits these solutions have for farmers. Discrete choice experiments are used for this purpose, in which the farmers surveyed are confronted with (fictional) decision-making situations in which the preferred alternative is to be chosen from several alternatives. These alternatives are described by different attributes and levels, which are systematically varied over the entire experimental design. Subsequently, different models can be used to estimate the benefit of individual attributes and the willingness to pay or willingness to accept. Therefore, a discrete choice experiment was developed to investigate the decision-making behaviour of farmers when registering pre-emptive rights, to determine the benefits of individual pre-emptive rights attributes and the willingness-to-pay for these attributes. The results,show, that the majority of the farmers surveyed preferred to choose one of the two pre-emptive rights over the status quo. I.e. farmers derive a benefit from pre-emptive rights and show a willingness-to-pay for pre-emptive rights to farmland, both of which depend on the characteristics of the pre-emptive right, but also on the personal and operational situation of the respondent. Due to the complexity of the issue of pre-emptive rights, another discrete choice experiment was conducted to analyse the decision-making behaviour of the owners of farmland affected by pre-emptive rights. Based on the sample chosen, only owners of farmland who are farmers themselves were interviewed. Here, too, the aim is to estimate the benefits and the monetary willingness-to-accept for pre-emptive rights, this time on the part of the affected farmland owners. However, it also becomes clear that there is a monetary willingness-to-accept this, i.e. that a compensation payment is expected from the entitled party for the granting of pre-emptive rights. As in the previous studies, the benefit as well as the willingness-to-accept strongly depends on the char¬acteristics of the pre-emptive right and the personal and farm situation of the respondents. Finally, another discrete choice experiment was conducted among orchardists and vintners in Baden-Württemberg. The subject of the study is the decision-making behaviour of the orchardists and vintners surveyed regarding the conclusion of state-subsidised crop insurance policies to protect against damage due to extreme weather events. The creation of the discrete choice experiment is based on a pilot project introduced in 2019 by the state of Baden-Württemberg to promote crop insurance against extreme weather-related damage in orcharding and viticulture. Here, too, the majority of respondents decide to take up subsidised crop insurance and show a willingness to pay for crop insurance. This decision is influenced by the characteristics of the crop insurance, but also by the previous risk management of the surveyed farms. Summing up all the analyses carried out, it can be said that farmers face up to the challenges currently arising, deal with the possible solutions and, within the framework of discrete choice experiments, decide by majority in favour of these solutions and thus against the status quo.
Non-trading behaviour in choice experiments
(2016) Neidhardt, Jan; Ahlheim, Michael
This paper addresses a methodological problem of choice experiments, namely the problem that respondents sometimes avoid the intellectual effort of thoroughly considering the trade-offs between different alternatives that are the essence of every choice experiment, and tick instead the next best alternative without the necessary deliberation. This kind of behaviour which is called "nontrading" in the respective literature calls into question the validity of choice experiments. In this paper, which is based on an online choice experiment concerned with consumer’s tastes for table grapes with 1,000 participants, we suggest possibilities to identify potential non-traders not only by their answering behaviour but also by some general characteristics we found to be typical of this kind of respondent.