Browsing by Subject "Environmental change"

Now showing 1 - 2 of 2

Nature's contributions to human well‐being under climate change: Evidence from Central and Eastern Madagascar
(2024) Petzold, Jan; Kosanic, Aleksandra; Rakoto Joseph, Felana; Rajaonarivelo Andrianina, Princy; Ranaivosoa‐Toandro, Sitraka Mireille; Andriamihaja, Onintsoa Ravaka; Voahanginirina, Leonnie Marcelline; Thien, Lara; Razanajatovo, Mialy
Anthropogenic climate change has an unprecedented impact on ecosystems and their services, with severe consequences for human well‐being, particularly for the marginalised and vulnerable members of society in the Global South. The well‐being of communities relies not only on material and regulating services ecosystems provide but also on non‐material services. In this paper, we unravel the diverse ways that climate change impacts affect Nature's Contributions to People (NCP) and the well‐being of rural populations in four sites in Madagascar—a biodiversity hotspot but one of the economically poorest countries in the world. We conducted participatory community workshops, mapping and semi‐structured interviews with local residents across social subgroups to understand the mechanisms of climate‐related degradation and the resulting impacts on different dimensions of human well‐being through an NCP lens. We found that non‐material services are generally more often associated with well‐being effects. Climate change degrades material and non‐material services through sea level rise, biodiversity loss, drought, precipitation and temperature variability, with consequences for materials, companionship and labour, food and feed, and physical and psychological experiences. Loss of land and forests is expressed through ecological grief. The outcome of our research provides evidence‐based information to local policymakers, conservation practitioners, and climate change agencies. This information can help improve government efforts toward holistic conservation and climate change adaptation by addressing the impacts on the physical and mental well‐being of the most vulnerable communities. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.
The road to integrate climate change projections with regional land‐use–biodiversity models
(2024) Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Mendoza‐Ponce, Alma; da Silva, André Pinto; Oberpriller, Johannes; Mimet, Anne; Kieslinger, Julia; Berger, Thomas; Blechschmidt, Jana; Brönner, Maximilian; Classen, Alice; Fallert, Stefan; Hartig, Florian; Hof, Christian; Hoffmann, Markus; Knoke, Thomas; Krause, Andreas; Lewerentz, Anne; Pohle, Perdita; Raeder, Uta; Rammig, Anja; Redlich, Sarah; Rubanschi, Sven; Stetter, Christian; Weisser, Wolfgang; Vedder, Daniel; Verburg, Peter H.; Zurell, Damaris
Current approaches to project spatial biodiversity responses to climate change mainly focus on the direct effects of climate on species while regarding land use and land cover as constant or prescribed by global land‐use scenarios. However, local land‐use decisions are often affected by climate change and biodiversity on top of socioeconomic and policy drivers. To realistically understand and predict climate impacts on biodiversity, it is, therefore, necessary to integrate both direct and indirect effects (via climate‐driven land‐use change) of climate change on biodiversity. In this perspective paper, we outline how biodiversity models could be better integrated with regional, climate‐driven land‐use models. We initially provide a short, non‐exhaustive review of empirical and modelling approaches to land‐use and land‐cover change (LU) and biodiversity (BD) change at regional scales, which forms the base for our perspective about improved integration of LU and BD models. We consider a diversity of approaches, with a special emphasis on mechanistic models. We also look at current levels of integration and at model properties, such as scales, inputs and outputs, to further identify integration challenges and opportunities. We find that LU integration in BD models is more frequent than the other way around and has been achieved at different levels: from overlapping predictions to simultaneously coupled simulations (i.e. bidirectional effects). Of the integrated LU‐BD socio‐ecological models, some studies included climate change effects on LU, but the relative contribution of direct vs. indirect effects of climate change on BD remains a key research challenge. Important research avenues include concerted efforts in harmonizing spatial and temporal resolution, disentangling direct and indirect effects of climate change on biodiversity, explicitly accounting for bidirectional feedbacks, and ultimately feeding socio‐ecological systems back into climate predictions. These avenues can be navigated by matching models, plugins for format and resolution conversion, and increasing the land‐use forecast horizon with adequate uncertainty. Recent developments of coupled models show that such integration is achievable and can lead to novel insights into climate–land use–biodiversity relations.