Browsing by Subject "Evaluation"

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Assessing participation in agricultural research projects: an analytical framework
(2004) Neef, Andreas; Neubert, Dieter
Recent discourse in the field of agricultural research has focused on how to assess and optimize the use of participatory approaches. In this paper, we propose a new Analytical Framework for the Assessment of Participatory Agricultural Research (AFAPAR) that seeks to evaluate participatory research elements along different dimensions and over several research phases and thus takes into account the complexity and dynamics of agricultural research projects. Empirical data from a long-term collaborative research program on ?Sustainable Land Use and Rural Development in Mountainous Regions of Southeast Asia? (The Uplands Program ? SFB 564) are used to explore the potential and shortcomings of AFAPAR. Findings suggest that while there is a need for further refinement, the analytical framework provides a sound basis for a differentiated assessment of participatory approaches in agricultural research that goes beyond the existing one-dimensional typologies of participatory research with their inherent claim of ?the more participation, the better?.
Diversity in the tropical multipurpose shrub legumes Cratylia argentea (Desv.) O. Kuntze and Flemingia macrophylla (Willd.) Merrill.
(2006) Andersson, Meike S.; Schultze-Kraft, Rainer
Cratylia argentea (Desv.) O. Kuntze and Flemingia macrophylla (Willd.) Merrill are promising tropical multipurpose shrub legumes. Both are drought-tolerant, well adapted to low-fertility, acid soils, and especially suited for low-input smallholder production systems in the sub-humid and humid tropics. They can be used e.g. as dry season forage supplementation, live soil cover or mulch, erosion barrier hedges, and shade-providing shrubs in young coffee and cocoa plantations. Germplasm collections were assembled from the wild-legume flora in Brazil (C. argentea) and Southeast Asia (F. macrophylla), but research and development are so far based on only a few accessions. Knowledge about the extent of genetic diversity within these collections is very limited. In addition, the potential utilization of F. macrophylla is so far limited by poor forage quality and acceptability of the few evaluated accessions. The objective of the present study, conducted in a research cooperation with the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia, was to assess the diversity in the germplasm collections of C. argentea (38 accessions) and F. macrophylla (69 accessions) in terms of morphological and phenological traits, agronomic and forage quality traits, and molecular markers, and to identify superior genotyes. Based on these different characterization approaches, the objective was furthermore to establish core collections for F. macrophylla, and to compare and validate the different strategies, giving particular consideration to their practical implications (time and cost efficiency) for the application to small collections of perennial wild tropical legumes. Cratylia argentea High diversity in terms of phenological and agronomic as well as forage quality traits was detected in the collection, with scope for plant improvement in terms of higher dry season DM production. Accessions CIAT 18674 and 22406 were identified as promising for further evaluation since they were similar to the commercial cultivar "Veraniega" in terms of forage quality, and superior in terms of DM production, particularly in the dry season. Molecular marker analysis with RAPDs showed that the genetic diversity in the collection was relatively low and fairly homogeneously distributed. Accessions CIAT 22373, 22378, 22380, 22381 and 22411 were identified as possible duplicates. Flemingia macrophylla High diversity in terms of morphological and agronomic as well as forage quality traits was detected among the 69 accessions. The identification of four morphotypes in the collection probably has taxonomic implications. Scope for plant improvement was identified with respect to forage quality - one of the species´ main limitations. Accessions CIAT 18437, 21083 and 21090 had similar DM production and higher digestibility than the control accession, and were virtually free of extractable condensed tannins. Problems with low palatability and low seed production of these promising accessions need to be further studied. Genetic diversity in F. macrophylla was higher than in C. argentea, and corresponded closely to the four morphotypes revealed by conventional characterization. Various duplicate accessions were identified, and evidence was provided that the non-Asian accessions are not native to their collection site regions, but rather introduced from Southeast Asia. The results have direct applications for plant improvement of these promising multipurpose legumes. The superior genotypes selected in this study will be used in work with farmers in CIAT-research sites in Central America and distributed to partners. It must be recognized, however, that the diversity assessed is influenced by the climatic and edaphic conditions at the site where the studies were conducted. Therefore, multilocational trials should be considered with a selected subset (including the promising accessions) of C. argentea and F. macrophylla i) to assess the extent of genotype x environment interaction, and ii) to identify genotypes with consistently high performance in a range of distinct environments. Research on the reproduction system of both species is urgently required to determine the potential extent and impact of outcrossing. Beyond the immediate application of these species for farmer utilization, the results of the use and comparison of different approaches to assess diversity and to establish core collections can help to improve germplasm management and characterization of wild tropical legume species in general. Random sampling has been identified as a valuable and resource-efficient strategy for the creation of core collections when no additional information about accessions is available, and in the absence of adequate funds. The validation of the findings of this study with a broader range of perennial tropical wild legumes is necessary to assess their applicability to other species.
Evaluation of the availability of different mineral phosphorus sources in broilers
(2012) Shastak, Yauheni; Rodehutscord, Markus
Inorganic feed phosphates are an indispensable supplement for compounding poultry feed. The requirement of available P in broiler chicks cannot be covered only with plant ingredients as P in plant feedstuff is largely presented in form of phytate which is only partially available in avian species. Due to the increase in prices for feed phosphates and environmental concerns associated with excessive excretion of P by livestock, the knowledge about the availability of P from mineral sources has gained in importance during the last decade. However, there is still no standardized method available for assessing the P availability of inorganic feed phosphates. Without knowledge of the exact quantitative values of the P availability for different P sources, it is not possible to formulate adequate diets without the risk of deficiency or excess supplementation. There are various approaches which are used by different laboratories for the determination of P availability. The main problem is, however, that it is not clear how the differences between approaches affect the results. The development of a standardized method of P evaluation, which allows obtaining quantitative values for P availability, is the basis for optimizing the dietary P concentration in broiler diets. The major objective of this thesis was to compare various methodological approaches that are used internationally to determine P availability in terms of their suitability. Therefore, firstly the P availability of two mineral phosphates was determined in 3- and 5-wk-old broilers based on data for P retention and prececal digestibility. The P availability of both mineral sources was calculated for both ages of birds by regression analyses for comparison of both response criteria. Secondly, the tibia bone ash and other bone criteria were determined. A comparison of these bone response criteria was then carried out by relating these data to measurements made on P retention. Thirdly, the suitability of tibia P retention for the estimation of the whole body P retention was investigated at both ages of birds. Variation in P retention of birds in these studies was additionally caused by the level and the source of P in the diet. In a fourth study, the effect of the basal diet composition on the availability of a feed phosphate was investigated based on quantitative P retention. A phytin-containing corn-SBM-based as well as a purified basal diet was used. Moreover, the impact of the inorganic phosphate level on the IP6 hydrolysis of the corn-SBM-based diet was assessed on the basis of excreta collection. In the first study, a corn-SBM-based basal diet was used (0.35% P on dry matter basis). MSPa or DCPa was supplemented to increment the P concentration by 0.08%, 0.16%, and 0.24%. Two balance trials (n=8 birds per diet) and two digestibility trials (n=8 pens with 10 birds per diet) were conducted (8 treatments per diet). In 3-wk-old broilers, P retention for MSPa was 70% and significantly higher (P < 0.001) than for DCPa (29%), as calculated by linear regression analysis. Values determined for P pc digestibility at the same age were very similar (67% for MSPa and 30% for DCPa; P < 0.001). In 5-wk-old broilers, P retention was 63% (MSPa) and 29% (DCPa) (P < 0.001), and pc digestibility was 54% (MSPa) and 25% (DCPa) (P = 0.002). In conclusion, in 3-wk-old broilers results obtained with both approaches were the same. In 5-wk-old broilers, the ranking of the two P sources was the same for both approaches. Values differed not greatly between the two age periods. The second study was linked to the first one, and the experimental design was the same. The study comprised two periods with birds of different ages, but from the same hatch. The response criteria evaluated were tibia, tarsometatarsus, toe ash, and P, as well as the Quantitative Computed Tomography measurements of tibiae, blood Pi concentration, and body weight gain. Responses were evaluated and compared based on linear regression analysis. In general, MSPa had a greater slope than DCPa for all criteria studied. For the different bones, the ratio of slopes was very similar based on the amount of ash in both periods. Foot ash was proved to be as sensitive as tibia ash in both periods. Blood serum Pi and body weight gain were not sufficiently sensitive criteria for P evaluation. We concluded that the ranking of both mineral P sources based on bone criteria differed from the ranking that was based on P retention or pc digestibility. The third study was also linked to the first one. Thus, the experimental design was the same. On days 21 and 35, two chicks per treatment were randomly chosen. Contents of P and Ca were determined in tibiae-free bodies and tibiae. The whole body P to tibia P ratio was 21.3±1.3 at d 21 and 19.8±1.1 at d 35 of age. The slope of linear regressions between the tibia P and the whole body P for both ages was identical (17.7). Results indicated that changes in tibia P may be suitable to predict changes in whole body P retention. In the last experiment, a phytin-containing as well as a purified basal diet, both containing 1.8 g available P per kg feed dry matter, was supplemented with MSPa to increment the P concentration by 0.05%, 0.1%, and 0.15%. A retention trial with excreta collection from d 20-24 was conducted (n=7 birds per diet). The level of P did not significantly affect the total P retention either of the corn-SBM-based or of the purified basal diet (P > 0.05). However, increasing the P level significantly reduced (P = 0.015) the IP6 hydrolysis for the corn-SBM-based diets. Percentage P retention for MSPa was calculated by linear regression analysis. P retention for MSPa was 50% for the corn-SBM-based diet and 51% for the purified diet. We concluded that there was no difference in P retention from MSPa between corn-SBM-based and purified diets. It can be concluded from the results of the present thesis that both retention and pc digestibility can be used for evaluating mineral P sources in broilers based on a regression approach. The ranking of mineral P sources based on bone criteria differed from the ranking that was based on P retention or pc digestibility. There was no difference in P retention from MSPa between corn-SBM-based and purified based diets, but a significant effect of the P-level on the IP6 hydrolysis in corn-SBM-based basal diets was found.
Forecasting DAX Volatility: A Comparison of Time Series Models and Implied Volatilities
(2016) Weiß, Harald; Wagenhals, Gerhard
This study provides a comprehensive comparison of different forecasting approaches for the German stock market. Additionally, this thesis presents an application of the MCS approach to evaluate DAX volatility forecasts based on high-frequency data. Furthermore, the effects of the 2008 financial crisis on the prediction of DAX volatility are analysed. The empirical analysis is based on data that contain all recorded transactions of DAX options and DAX futures traded on the EUREX from January 2002 to December 2009. The volatility prediction models employed in this study to forecast DAX volatility are selected based on the results of the general features of the forecasting models, and the analysis of the considered DAX time series. Within the class of time series models, the GARCH, the Exponential GARCH (EGARCH), the ARFIMA, and the Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) model are chosen to fit the DAX return and realised volatility series. Additionally, the Britten-Jones and Neuberger (2000) approach is applied to produce DAX implied volatility forecasts because it is based on a broader information set than the BS model. Finally, the BS model is employed as a benchmark model in this study. As the empirical analysis in this study demonstrates that DAX volatility changes considerably over the long sample period, it investigates whether structural breaks induce long memory effects. The effects are separately analysed by performing different structural break tests for the prediction models. A discussion of the impact on the applied forecasting methodology, and how it is accounted for, is also presented. Based on the MCS approach, the DAX volatility forecasts are separately evaluated for the full sample and the subperiod that excludes the two most volatile months of the financial crisis. Because the objective of this work is to provide information to investment and risk managers regarding which forecasting method delivers superior DAX volatility forecasts, the volatilities are predicted for one day, two weeks, and one month. Finally, the evaluation results are compared with previous findings in the literature for each forecast horizon.
Load based evaluation of machines using the example of a tractor
(2018) Balbach, Florian; Böttinger, Stefan
The estimation of tractor value requires a lot of experience and knowledge and relies mainly on to-tal operation hours and manufacturing year. Today each tractor operation hour is considered to be equal because tractor meters operate time based only and do not consider the varying loads. But tractors face multiple applications within a year. Each application puts different loads on each tractor assembly such as engine, gearbox, axles or power take-off. A more precise method is introduced to evaluate tractor operation hours on basis of real applica-tion loads of each tractor assembly within the drivetrain separately. The method relates accumulat-ed tractor loads to standard operation loads which are defined by a reference load spectrum for the specific assembly. For the load evaluation a pseudo damage calculation similar to the Miner’s rule is used. A test tractor was equipped with strain gauge sensors to measure torque flow within the drivetrain. A variety of different tractor applications were measured and load spectra for different assemblies were generated. Based on different tractor application profiles lifetime load spectra for the differ-ent assemblies can be calculated. Further consolidation of the individual load factors can be done by weighting of the assemblies. The resulting load factor brings transparent information about in-tensity of tractor usage. Results show big differences between the assemblies and between the different application profiles. This supports the demand for a new method for tractor evaluation
Validation and evaluation of the DNDC model to simulate soil water content, mineral N and N₂O emission in the North China Plain
(2009) Kröbel, Roland; Römheld, Volker
Using measured datasets (various soil properties, the soil water content, daily N₂O emissions, and different crop parameters) from a multi-factorial field experiment (N fertilisation, irrigation, and straw removal) in the years 1999-2002 on the experimental site Dong Bei Wang (DBW) in the North China Plain (NCP), the ability of the process-oriented model DNDC (DeNitrification-DeComposition) was tested to simulate soil processes, and especially N₂O trace gas emissions. The soil is classified as ?calcaric cambisol? (16 % clay content), while the site itself is further characterised by the regime of a continental monsoon climate. The central hypothesis in this work was that a thorough testing of the model (using a considerable range of different datasets) will allow the identification of shortcomings or discrepancies in the model, and that, given the linear succession of model calculation steps, the model calculation can be improved step by step, starting with improvements of initial calculation steps before continuing the improvement of following calculation steps. Due to increases in the N₂O atmospheric concentration, and a lifetime of 100 to 150 years for one molecule (as well as a global warming potential 32 times that of a CO₂ molecule), N₂O is estimated to account for 7.9 % of the global warming potential. 70 % ? 90 % of the anthropogenic N₂O emissions are thought to origin from agriculture. The formation of nitrous oxide is dependent on the availability of reactive nitrogen, and, therefore, mainly influenced by the N fertilisation rate, fertiliser type, application timing and method. China, and the main cropping area NCP, are expected to contribute considerably to the anthropogenic N₂O emissions. The DNDC model consists of two compartments, which first calculate soil temperature, moisture, pH, redox potential and substrate concentration profiles from climate, soil, vegetation and anthropogenic activity datasets, and in a second step NO, N₂O, CH4 and NH3 fluxes. In accordance with the data availability, the simulation of the soil water content, the mineral nitrogen concentration, and the N₂O fluxes were investigated. An automated parameter optimisation (using the software UCODE_2005) and programmed changes in the source code were conducted to improve the model simulations. In result, neither the automated parameter optimisations, nor the programmed changes, were able to improve the unsatisfying default simulations of the DNDC model. The results of the cascade model, employed by the DNDC model to simulate soil water dynamics, suggest that conceptual errors exist in the model calculation. Also the results of the mineral nitrogen and N₂O emissions simulations suggest shortcomings in the model calculation. The best agreement between measured and simulated total cumulative N₂O fluxes was achieved using an adapted (90 cm soil depth, adjusted SOC fractioning, and added atmospheric N deposition) default model version, despite unsatisfactory simulations of soil water content, mineral nitrogen, and daily N₂O fluxes. Thus, in conclusion, the investigated DNDC model version appears to be able to give an approximation of seasonal N₂O fluxes, without being able to simulate the underlying processes accurately in detail. Therefore, caution is suggested when modelling sites on the process level.