Browsing by Subject "Handelspolitik"

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Applied policy research through the lens of new quantitative trade models
(2021) Walter, Timo; Jung, Benjamin
This cumulative dissertation consists of four essays focusing on the applied policy research in international trade. I conduct policy research on current and relevant trade subjects using state-of-the-art quantitative trade models. In the first two essays I analyze the impact of potential trade policies before they are implemented (ex-ante), while in the two later essays I examine policy issues and their effects after they were implemented (ex-post). The first essay is dedicated to the exploration of the trade and welfare effects of a potential free trade agreement (FTA) between the United States and Japan. Examining the effects of this bilateral FTA is of economic relevance as Japan is the largest trading partner for the United States without an established FTA. Based on the new quantitative trade model of Caliendo and Parro (2015) I consider various trade policy scenarios of such a potential FTA. In my counterfactual analysis I focus on the decrease of tariffs as well as on the reduction of different levels of non-tariff barriers. My findings indicate that the largest trade effects are driven by the reduction of non-tariff barriers. Furthermore, I compare the impact of a bilateral “Deep FTA” with the impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The results show that the United States would prefer joining TPP; Japan would benefit the most of a “Deep FTA”. The second essay of my dissertation project concentrates on the abolition of import tariffs in the automotive sector between the EU and the United States. To study the potential policy implications of the so-called “Zero Tariff Solution”, this essay applies the Caliendo and Parro (2015) framework and the empirical approach of the first essay. Hereby, several possible trade policy scenarios are analyzed. The key result clearly shows that the highest welfare gains would be achieved by the “grand solution” where the EU and the United States reduce the automotive tariffs for all WTO countries. At the heart of the third essay lies the question about the underlying reasons for the steady decline of unemployment in Germany since the peak in 2005. In particular, I dissect the employment effect of the “rise of the East” (rise in trade between Germany and Eastern Europe) and that of the fourth stage of the German labor market reform (“Hartz IV"). By extending the Caliendo et al. (2019) dynamic trade model I can show that the “Hartz IV" reform decreases the short-term unemployment by 0.4 percent. I examine the productivity growth of Germany and Eastern Europe as potential drivers for the increased trade. I discover that the German productivity growth leads to a decrease in short-term unemployment, whereas the productivity growth in Eastern Europe enhances the German short-term unemployment slightly. Thus, the overall effect of the “rise of the East” driven by the productivity growth of Germany and Eastern Europe contributed to a slight decrease in German short-term unemployment. The fourth essay investigates social welfare in Germany while taking income inequality into account. The essay consists of two parts: In the first part (closed economy setting) we study the welfare effects of the German “Tax-Reform 2000”, the largest tax reform of the last decades. In the second part (open economy setting) we concentrate on the social welfare effects of the trade liberalization in Germany between 1995 and 2014. We apply the Antràs et al. (2017) approach which considers income inequality when focusing on social welfare. The results demonstrate that the “Tax-Reform 2000” contribute to a minor average annual social welfare growth. However, this additional social welfare growth strongly varies with the social planer’s inequality aversion. Additionally, we identify the optimal tax-progressivity for each year of the period. Furthermore, when studying the trade liberalization, we find support that a counterfactual move of the German economy of the year 2014 to the trade openness of 1995 would severely reduce the social welfare.
Die Aussenhandelspolitik der EU gegenüber China: "China-Bashing" ist keine rationale Basis für Politik
(2007) Belke, Ansgar; Spies, Julia
Mit der Verabschiedung einer handelspolitischen Strategie gegenüber China Ende Oktober 2006 richtet sich die Europäische Union (EU) in einem veränderten globalen Wettbewerbsumfeld neu aus. Erstmals wird mit dem Einsatz von Schutzmaßnahmen gedroht, sollte China die multilateralen Vereinbarungen der Welthandelsorganisation (World Trade Organization ? WTO) nicht vollständig umsetzen. Doch hat auch die EU ihre ?Hausaufgaben? in den vergangenen Jahren nicht immer erledigt. Auf die Einfuhrschwemme von Textilien und Bekleidung Anfang 2005 reagierte sie durch die Erhebung neuer Quoten. In diesem Papier argumentieren wir, dass nur eine reziproke Marktöffnung eine stabile Partnerschaft bedingt, bei der beide Seiten vom ohnehin nicht aufzuhaltenden Vormarsch Chinas profitieren können.
Cartographie du commerce agricole au sein de la CEDEAO : structure et flux des produits agricoles, obstacles au commerce, lacunes en matière de financement et options politiques. Un projet de recherche en coopération avec la GIZ pour le compte du BMZ
(2021) Wieck, Christine; Kareem, Olayinka Idowu; Ejima, Joseph; Mahe, Rukayya; Alaba, Dare; Traoré, Sékou Amadou; Fynn, Mark Kofi
This study reviews the structure and flow of formal and informal agri-food trade within ECOWAS and evaluate the trade barriers, financial and quality infrastructure gaps. A mixed-method approach – qualitative and quantitative methods – is adopted which comprises an extensive literature review, analysis of available statistical data on formal and informal trade and trade barriers, a field survey, expert interviews and workshops. The intra-ECOWAS agri-food trade is still at the low level with most of the traded agri-food commodities largely without value addition and characterised by inadequate diversification of the export base. A preponderance of informal agri-food trade along both the formal and informal trade corridors are detected. Livestock, oilseeds, cottonseed, nuts, cocoa beans, cereal, cassava, fisheries, fruits and vegetables were the most traded agri-food commodities, which were not given any concession of passage or facilitated across the borders despite the perishability of the commodities. Agri-food trade flows in the ECOWAS are largely hampered by the heterogeneous trade policy measures across the Member states. This is often a barrier to trade and tend to increase trade costs and commodities prices, thereby constraining the regional trade benefits to the people while also making the trading countries uncompetitive. Women agri-food traders were often exploited and harassed by the different borders’ officials. More so, the low intra-ECOWAS trade in agricultural and food products is due to the low production capacities, which among others are due to the inadequate finance, poor quality infrastructure – soft (trained inspectors, customs procedures digitalisation, certification, etc) and hard (metrology facilities, roads, ports’ facilities, testing and inspection laboratories, etc.). Agricultural trade finance has been identified as one of the key challenges inhibiting trade in agricultural commodities in this subregion. Strategic policy options to promote agri-food trade within ECOWAS are provided
Mapping agricultural trade within the ECOWAS : structure and flow of agricultural products, barriers to trade, financing gaps and policy options. A research project in cooperation with GIZ on behalf of BMZ
(2021) Kareem, Olayinka Idowu; Wieck, Christine; Ejima, Joseph; Mahe, Rukayya; Alaba, Dare; Traoré, Sékou Amadou; Fynn, Mark Kofi
This study reviews the structure and flow of formal and informal agri-food trade within ECOWAS and evaluate the trade barriers, financial and quality infrastructure gaps. A mixed-method approach – qualitative and quantitative methods – is adopted which comprises an extensive literature review, analysis of available statistical data on formal and informal trade and trade barriers, a field survey, expert interviews and workshops. The intra-ECOWAS agri-food trade is still at the low level with most of the traded agri-food commodities largely without value addition and characterised by inadequate diversification of the export base. A preponderance of informal agri-food trade along both the formal and informal trade corridors are detected. Livestock, oilseeds, cottonseed, nuts, cocoa beans, cereal, cassava, fisheries, fruits and vegetables were the most traded agri-food commodities, which were not given any concession of passage or facilitated across the borders despite the perishability of the commodities. Agri-food trade flows in the ECOWAS are largely hampered by the heterogeneous trade policy measures across the Member states. This is often a barrier to trade and tend to increase trade costs and commodities prices, thereby constraining the regional trade benefits to the people while also making the trading countries uncompetitive. Women agri-food traders were often exploited and harassed by the different borders’ officials. More so, the low intra-ECOWAS trade in agricultural and food products is due to the low production capacities, which among others are due to the inadequate finance, poor quality infrastructure – soft (trained inspectors, customs procedures digitalisation, certification, etc) and hard (metrology facilities, roads, ports’ facilities, testing and inspection laboratories, etc.). Agricultural trade finance has been identified as one of the key challenges inhibiting trade in agricultural commodities in this subregion. Strategic policy options to promote agri-food trade within ECOWAS are provided.