Browsing by Subject "Klimasimulation"

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Sensitivity of land-atmosphere coupling strength in dependence of land cover and atmospheric thermodynamics over Europe
(2023) Jach, Lisa; Wulfmeyer, Volker
Biogeophysical feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere have been identified to heavily control the climate system. Land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling strength is a concept to quantify the feedback processes. However, the quantification is still subject to uncertainties, in particular, in the context of land surface influences on local convective precipitation. On the one hand, feedback processes are the result of a chain of complex interactions between various components in the L-A system all exhibiting spatiotemporal variability. On the other hand, L-A coupling strength is not a directly measurable quantity. It can be assessed with different scientific approaches, which makes the quantification dependent on the methodology and the availability of suitable data sets. The aim of this doctoral thesis is to investigate the impact of changes in the vegetation cover and the atmospheric thermodynamic conditions on the long-term coupling signal between the land surface and the triggering of deep moist convection during the European summer. The ‘convective triggering potential – low-level humidity index’ framework, which is a commonly used L-A coupling metric, classifies a day in favor for L-A coupling or not, based on the prevailing thermodynamic conditions in the atmosphere. The daily classifications are used to measure the frequency of days with favorable conditions during the study period, and to identify regions with high frequencies of favorable conditions as coupling hot spots. The framework is applied to model output from regional climate model (RCM) simulations with WRF-NoahMP with diverging land cover conducted over the historical period 1986-2015 for the Euro-CORDEX domain. Impacts of changes in vegetation cover are analyzed by comparing the L-A coupling strength from two sensitivity experiments with idealized extreme land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) against a simulation with realistic land cover. A posteriori modifications to the temperature and moisture output fields of the simulation with realistic land cover were implemented to analyze impacts of systematic changes in the atmospheric thermodynamic conditions. A potential coupling hot spot with predominantly positive feedbacks was identified over Eastern Europe. In Southern Europe and Europe’s coastal areas, the coupling is regularly inhibited by very dry, very wet or stable conditions in the atmosphere. The location of the hot spot appeared insensitive to LULCCs and changes in the thermodynamic conditions. None of the sensitivity tests within a realistic range of temperature and moisture modifications for a recent climate period, led to a disappearance of the hot spot or to overcome the causes for inhibiting coupling in the respective areas in summer. Nevertheless, the experiments demonstrated also considerable variance of the coupling strength within the hot spot region. LULCCs changed the turbulent heat fluxes from the land surface, and thus the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) heating and moistening. This impacted the boundary layer development of each day. It also caused changes in the average thermodynamic characteristics during the study period, which changed the frequency of favorable pre-conditioning for convection triggering and enhanced the variance in the coupling strength in the hot spot. Both effects were identified to influence the land surface control on the occurrence of convective precipitation. Furthermore, the sensitivity tests with a posteriori modifications revealed uncertainties in the predominant atmospheric response to differently wet surfaces around the Black Sea, shown by a disagreement in the predominant coupling pathway between the modification cases. The findings further indicate uncertainty in whether the hot spot expands over Central Europe, as the feedback signal was sensitive to changes in temperature and moisture. Additionally, the model has a warm and dry bias in this area, which suggests an overestimation of the humidity deficit. The large humidity deficit, in turn, was the inhibiting factor for a high frequency of occurrence of favorable pre-conditions for deep moist convection. The analyses reveal a sensitivity of the L-A coupling strength and atmospheric response to the prevailing land surface and atmospheric conditions in the hot spot. This highlights the need to consider both the land surface state and its impact on L-A coupling strength with respect to predictions of convective precipitation events in strongly coupled regions (and periods). Given that L-A coupling provides predictive skill for climate projections and seasonal forecasts, improved understanding about causes of variability in L-A coupling strength is crucial for improvements therein.