Browsing by Subject "Kointegration"

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Business cycles and institutions : empirical analysis
(2017) Kufenko, Vadim; Hagemann, Harald
The cumulative dissertation covers diverse aspects of empirical analysis of business cycles and institutions. There are three research questions in focus. To address the interplay between business cycles and institutions, the first research question is formulated: could the Malthusian cycles be present in a frontier economy with abundance of land and which institutions could be responsible for the Malthusian regime and the transition from it? In order to consider the far-reaching implications of economic cycles for the development of economic thought, the second question is stated: can economic fluctuations quantitatively influence research output? To address the methodology of business cycle analysis, the third question is brought up: how may spurious periodicities emerge and how could one test for them? The main findings in the cumulative dissertation can be summarized as follows: i) it is shown that institutional arrangements may form economic constraints or build-up on the existing ones, responsible for the regimes in which cyclical fluctuations take place; ii) the interaction between the economic cycles and fluctuations in bibliometric variables representing research output in Economics as a science is analysed, and empirical evidence suggests the downswings of cycles stimulate more publications on the topic of crises and business cycles; iii) spurious periodicities emerge close to filtering bounds for real and simulated data after detrending, and it is demonstrated that simultaneous significance testing of spectral density peaks against the noise spectrum across different types of signals may help to reveal spurious periodicities.
Modelling nonlinearities in cointegration relationships
(2017) Schweikert, Karsten; Jung, Robert
This thesis is concerned with the statistical modelling of long-run equilibrium relationships between economic variables. It comprises of four main chapters - each representing a standalone research paper. The connecting thread is the use of nonlinear cointegration models. More precisely: Chapter 2, Asymmetric price transmission in the US and German fuel markets: A quantile autoregression approach, proposes a new econometric model for asymmetric price transmissions using quantile regressions. Chapter 3, Are gold and silver cointegrated? New evidence from quantile cointegration, investigates the potentially nonlinear long-run relationship between gold and silver prices. Chapter 4, Testing for cointegration with SETAR adjustment in the presence of structural breaks, develops a new cointegration test with SETAR adjustment allowing for the presence of structural breaks in the equilibrium equation. Chapter 5, A Markov regime-switching model of crude oil market integration, revisits the globalization-regionalization hypothesis for the world crude oil using a Markov-switching vector error correction model.
Testing for cointegration with threshold adjustment in the presence of structural breaks
(2018) Schweikert, Karsten
In this paper, we develop new threshold cointegration tests with SETAR and MTAR adjustment allowing for the presence of structural breaks in the equilibrium equation. We propose a simple procedure to simultaneously estimate the previously unknown breakpoint and test the null hypothesis of no cointegration. Thereby, we extend the well-known residual-based cointegration test with regime shift introduced by Gregory and Hansen (1996a) to include forms of nonlinear adjustment. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the test statistics and demonstrate the finite-sample performance of the tests in a series of Monte Carlo experiments. We find a substantial decrease of power of the conventional threshold cointegration tests caused by a shift in the slope coefficient of the equilibrium equation. The proposed tests perform superior in these situations. An application to the ‘rockets and feathers’ hypothesis of price adjustment in the US gasoline market provides empirical support for this methodology.