Browsing by Subject "Prediction ability"

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Early prediction of biomass in hybrid rye based on hyperspectral data surpasses genomic predictability in less-related breeding material
(2021) Galán, Rodrigo José; Bernal-Vasquez, Angela-Maria; Jebsen, Christian; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Thorwarth, Patrick; Steffan, Philipp; Gordillo, Andres; Miedaner, Thomas
Key message: Hyperspectral data is a promising complement to genomic data to predict biomass under scenarios of low genetic relatedness. Sufficient environmental connectivity between data used for model training and validation is required. Abstract: The demand for sustainable sources of biomass is increasing worldwide. The early prediction of biomass via indirect selection of dry matter yield (DMY) based on hyperspectral and/or genomic prediction is crucial to affordably untap the potential of winter rye (Secale cereale L.) as a dual-purpose crop. However, this estimation involves multiple genetic backgrounds and genetic relatedness is a crucial factor in genomic selection (GS). To assess the prospect of prediction using reflectance data as a suitable complement to GS for biomass breeding, the influence of trait heritability ( ) and genetic relatedness were compared. Models were based on genomic (GBLUP) and hyperspectral reflectance-derived (HBLUP) relationship matrices to predict DMY and other biomass-related traits such as dry matter content (DMC) and fresh matter yield (FMY). For this, 270 elite rye lines from nine interconnected bi-parental families were genotyped using a 10 k-SNP array and phenotyped as testcrosses at four locations in two years (eight environments). From 400 discrete narrow bands (410 nm–993 nm) collected by an uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) on two dates in each environment, 32 hyperspectral bands previously selected by Lasso were incorporated into a prediction model. HBLUP showed higher prediction abilities (0.41 – 0.61) than GBLUP (0.14 – 0.28) under a decreased genetic relationship, especially for mid-heritable traits (FMY and DMY), suggesting that HBLUP is much less affected by relatedness and . However, the predictive power of both models was largely affected by environmental variances. Prediction abilities for DMY were further enhanced (up to 20%) by integrating both matrices and plant height into a bivariate model. Thus, data derived from high-throughput phenotyping emerges as a suitable strategy to efficiently leverage selection gains in biomass rye breeding; however, sufficient environmental connectivity is needed.
Integration of hyperspectral, genomic, and agronomic data for early prediction of biomass yield in hybrid rye (Secale cereale L.)
(2021) Galán, Rodrigo José; Miedaner, Thomas
Currently, the combination of a growing bioenergy demand and the need to diversify the dominant cultivation of energy maize opens a highly attractive scenario for alternative biomass crops. Rye (Secale cereale L.) stands out for its vigorous growth and increased tolerance to abiotic and biotic stressors. In Germany, less than a quarter of the total harvest is used for food production. Consequently, rye arises as a source of renewables with a reduced bioenergy-food tradeoff, emerging biomass as a new breeding objective. However, rye breeding is mainly driven by grain yield while biomass is destructively evaluated in later selection stages by expensive and time-consuming methods. The overall motivation of this research was to investigate the prospects of combining hyperspectral, genomic, and agronomic data for unlocking the potential of hybrid rye as a dual-purpose crop to meet the increasing demand for renewable sources of energy affordably. A specific aim was to predict the biomass yield as precisely as possible at an early selection stage. For this, a panel of 404 elite rye lines was genotyped and evaluated as testcrosses for grain yield and a subset of 274 genotypes additionally for biomass. Field trials were conducted at four locations in Germany in two years (eight environments). Hyperspectral fingerprints consisted of 400 discrete narrow bands (from 410 to 993 nm) and were collected in two points of time after heading for all hybrids in each site by an uncrewed aerial vehicle. In a first study, population parameters were estimated for different agronomic traits and a total of 23 vegetation indices. Dry matter yield showed significant genetic variation and was stronger correlated with plant height (r_g=0.86) than with grain yield (r_g=0.64) and individual vegetation indices (r_g: =<|0.35|). A multiple linear regression model based on plant height, grain yield, and a subset of vegetation indices surpassed the prediction ability for dry matter yield of models based only on agronomic traits by about 6 %. In a second study, whole-spectrum data was used to indirectly estimate dry matter yield. For this, single-kernel models based on hyperspectral reflectance-derived (HBLUP) and genomic (GBLUP) relationship matrices, a multi-kernel model combining both matrices, and a bivariate model fitted also with plant height as a secondary trait, were considered. HBLUP yielded superior predictive power than the models based on vegetation indices previously tested. The phenotypic correlations between individual wavelengths and dry matter yield were generally significant (p < 0.05) but low (r_p: =< |0.29|). Across environments and training set sizes, the bivariate model yielded the highest prediction abilities (0.56 – 0.75). All models profited from larger training populations. However, if larger training sets cannot be afforded, HBLUP emerged as a promising approach given its higher prediction power on reduced calibration populations compared to the well-established GBLUP. Before its incorporation into prediction models, filtering the hyperspectral data available by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) was worthwhile to deal with data dimensionally. In a third study, the effects of trait heritability, as well as genetic and environmental relatedness on the prediction ability of GBLUP and HBLUP for biomass-related traits were compared. While the prediction ability of GBLUP (0.14 - 0.28) was largely affected by genetic relatedness and trait heritability, HBLUP was significantly more accurate (0.41 - 0.61) across weakly connected datasets. In this context, dry matter yield could be better predicted (up to 20 %) by a bivariate model. Nevertheless, due to environmental variances, genomic and reflectance-enabled predictions were strongly dependant on a sufficient environmental relationship between data used for model training and validation. In summary, to affordably breed rye as a double-purpose crop to meet the increasing bioenergy demands, the early prediction of biomass across selection cycles is crucial. Hyperspectral imaging has proven to be a suitable tool to select high-yielding biomass genotypes across weakly linked populations. Due to the synergetic effect of combining hyperspectral, genomic, and agronomic traits, higher prediction abilities can be obtained by integrating these data sources into bivariate models.