Browsing by Subject "Probability density functions"

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    The added value of km-scale simulations to describe temperature over complex orography: the CORDEX FPS-Convection multi-model ensemble runs over the Alps
    (2024) Soares, P. M. M.; Careto, J. A. M.; Cardoso, Rita M.; Goergen, Klaus; Katragkou, Eleni; Sobolowski, Stefan; Coppola, Erika; Ban, Nikolina; Belušić, Danijel; Berthou, Ségolène; Caillaud, Cécile; Dobler, Andreas; Hodnebrog, Øivind; Kartsios, Stergios; Lenderink, Geert; Lorenz, T.; Milovac, Josipa; Feldmann, Hendrik; Pichelli, Emanuela; Truhetz, Heimo; Demory, Marie Estelle; de Vries, Hylke; Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten; Keuler, Klaus; Raffa, Mario; Tölle, Merja; Sieck, Kevin; Bastin, Sophie
    The increase in computational resources has enabled the emergence of multi-model ensembles of convection-permitting regional climate model (CPRCM) simulations at very high horizontal resolutions. An example is the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study on “Convective phenomena at high resolution over Europe and the Mediterranean”, a set of kilometre-scale simulations over an extended Alpine domain. This first-of-its-kind multi-model ensemble, forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis, can be considered a benchmark dataset. This study uses a recently proposed metric to determine the added value of all the available Flagship Pilot Study hindcast kilometre-scale simulations for maximum and minimum temperature. The analysis is performed using state-of-the-art gridded and station observations as ground truth. This approach directly assesses the added value between the high-resolution CPRCMs against their driving global simulations and coarser resolution RCM counterparts. Overall, models display some modest gains, but also considerable shortcomings are exhibited. In part, these deficiencies can be attributed to the assimilation of temperature observations into ERA-Interim. Although the gains for the use of kilometre-scale resolution for temperature are limited, the improvement of the spatial representation of local atmospheric circulations and land–atmosphere interactions can ultimately lead to gains, particularly in coastal areas.
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    The added value of simulated near-surface wind speed over the Alps from a km-scale multimodel ensemble
    (2024) Molina, M. O.; Careto, J. M.; Gutiérrez, C.; Sánchez, E.; Goergen, K.; Sobolowski, S.; Coppola, E.; Pichelli, E.; Ban, N.; Belus̆ić, D.; Short, C.; Caillaud, C.; Dobler, A.; Hodnebrog, Ø.; Kartsios, S.; Lenderink, G.; de Vries, H.; Göktürk, O.; Milovac, Josipa; Feldmann, H.; Truhetz, H.; Demory, M. E.; Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten; Keuler, K.; Adinolfi, M.; Raffa, M.; Tölle, M.; Sieck, K.; Bastin, S.; Soares, P. M. M.
    The advancement of computational resources has allowed researchers to run convection-permitting regional climate model (CPRCM) simulations. A pioneering effort promoting a multimodel ensemble of such simulations is the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Studies (FPS) on “Convective Phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean” over an extended Alps region. In this study, the Distribution Added Value metric is used to determine the improvement of the representation of all available FPS hindcast simulations for the daily mean near-surface wind speed. The analysis is performed on normalized empirical probability distributions and considers station observation data as the reference. The use of a normalized metric allows for spatial comparison among the different regions (coast and inland), altitudes and seasons. This approach permits a direct assessment of the added value between the CPRCM simulations against their global driving reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and respective coarser resolution regional model counterparts. In general, the results show that CPRCMs add value to their global driving reanalysis or forcing regional model, due to better-resolved topography or through better representation of ocean-land contrasts. However, the nature and magnitude of the improvement in the wind speed representation vary depending on the model, the season, the altitude, or the region. Among seasons, the improvement is usually larger in summer than winter. CPRCMs generally display gains at low and medium-range altitudes. In addition, despite some shortcomings in comparison to ERA-Interim, which can be attributed to the assimilation of wind observations on the coast, the CPRCMs outperform the coarser regional climate models, both along the coast and inland.