Browsing by Subject "Regionalmodell"

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Agro-economic policy analysis with the regional production model ACRE : a case study for Baden-Wuerttemberg
(2011) Henseler, Martin; Dabbert, Stephan
Since its introduction the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union (EU) has undergone several reforms in order to adapt policy instruments and enable the agricultural sector to fulfil multiple functions with respect to economic, supply and environmental objectives. In the German federal state Baden-Wuerttemberg agricultural production is characterized by regional heterogeneity. Therefore it is important to estimate the impacts resulting from changes in the CAP at a detailed regional level. In this study the agricultural policy model ACRE (Agro-eConomic pRoduction model at rEgional level) has been used to simulate different policy scenarios and to analyze regional economic, production and environmental impacts. In particular the study aims to address the following research questions: What are the regional impacts of different policy measures in the German federal state Baden-Wuerttemberg with respect to economic, production and environmental objectives? How suitable are the simulated policy measures for achieving the policy objectives of the CAP 2003 reform, as well as the objectives of subsidy reduction, promotion of energy crop production, reduction of environmental pollution and promotion of agro-environmental measures? How suitable is the regional supply model ACRE as a tool for policy analysis and policy decision support? In order to address the research questions, ACRE has been updated, adapted and extended to simulate agricultural production in the federal state Baden-Wuerttemberg at NUTS3 level. The policy scenarios simulated in this study are defined to cover recent discussions on the future development of the CAP and their results are analysed according to a regional framework for NUTS3 counties, farm types and the complete model region. The simulation of the reference year (REF) implies the policy reform Agenda 2000 in the simulation year 2000. Thus, REF represents the observed situation of regional agricultural production on whose statistical data ACRE is calibrated. The scenario CAP2003 simulates the policy measures of the CAP 2003 reform in the simulation year 2015. Assumptions of increased yields and prices as well as harmonized direct payments for arable land and grassland result in an increase in income as well as in an increase of subsidy volume. In the entire model region Baden-Wuerttemberg cereal production increases while the production of fattening bulls and pigs decreases. Increases in crop production intensity result in an increase in environmental pollution. The scenario CAP2003 is used as the baseline scenario to compare the results of simulated policy scenarios which are delineated in the following paragraphs only with the most important results for the complete model region Baden-Wuerttemberg. In two subsidy reduction scenarios the simulated policy instruments aim to reduce subsidy volume by reducing Pillar 1 payments by 60% and by shifting 70% of the money from Pillar 1 to Pillar 2 respectively. Both scenarios result in the positive impact of a decrease in subsidy volume, but show a negative impact, especially an increase of abandoned land. In two energy crop scenarios the production of energy maize is simulated under the assumption that different situations in energy policy and energy markets result in different competitiveness between production of energy maize and food. In both scenarios energy crop production partially replaces cereal production, although the extent varies according to the high or small level of competitiveness between production of energy maize and food. Impacts on agricultural income and subsidies are small while increased environmental pressure is expected in the event of a significant expansion in energy crop production. Two nitrogen reduction scenarios simulate policy measures according to the water framework directive (WFD) and the OSPAR convention. The scenario according to the WFD (limitation of organic nitrogen input to a maximum of 170kg nitrogen per hectare) does not result in any impacts. In contrast, the scenario according to the OSPAR convention (reduction of nitrogen input quantities by 10%) results in a decrease in environmental pollution and is accompanied by a reduction of income and reduction of agricultural production under land abandonment. In the scenario of mandatory agri-environmental measures (AEM) it is assumed that the area with applied AEM is extended. The increase of AEM area results in a decrease in cereal production and a reduction of environmental pollution, while income decreases only slightly. Two combined scenarios simulate a mix of different policy and market situations which provoke an intensive and an extensive agricultural production. The results of these scenarios illustrate the interaction of the single policy measures. The measures of subsidy reduction have similar reducing impacts on income and subsidy volume in both scenarios. In the intensive production scenario high competitive energy crop production and a less restrictive nitrogen restriction result in a compensation effect of land abandonment by extension of energy crop area. In the extensive production scenarios, less competitive energy crop production and a high restrictive nitrogen constraint result in reduced agricultural production, increased land abandonment and reduced environmental pressure. In order to evaluate the impact of the simulated policy measures on the achievement of policy objectives the results of all scenarios are compared and ranked according to their impact on the policy objectives. The analyses of the model results show impacts of policy measures which are likely to be expected. However, the analyses at NUTS3 as well as farm types' level reveal that the impacts of the policy measures can be regionally quite different. Thus the detailed regional model results clearly show that (and where) the implementation of agricultural policy measures requires a regional specific evaluation and monitoring. In order to discuss the study with regard to the methods applied and the outcome, a final strengths and weaknesses analysis was conducted. The analysis highlights the strengths of the study (e.g. the model validation, the regional analysis of different policy scenarios, the possibility of cooperation with regional stakeholders). The validation and the results of the study also show that ACRE is a suitable tool for regional agricultural policy analysis and policy decision support. Supplementary work could help to overcome single shortcomings and caveats and to further develop the model. However, ACRE can already be used now as a useful tool for the regional agricultural policy analysis of the CAP in Baden-Wuerttemberg.
An economic analysis of the implementation options of soil conservation policies
(2008) Schuler, Johannes; Dabbert, Stephan
The objective of this study is to analyze the economic and agricultural aspects of the implementation of soil conservation programmes and to suggest appropriate measure-instrument combinations for efficient soil conservation as a decision support for the implementation of soil conservation policies. Emphasis is given to the resource and institutional economics of soil conservation. In the empirical part, the efficiency of policy options is analysed using the example of a region in north-eastern Germany based on model calculations. After an introduction to the topic of soil functions and soil degradation definitions, the implementation concepts for soil protection measures at the international and national level are described. Based on the theoretical economic analysis of soils as a natural resource, the existing property rights, the public good characteristics of soils and the resulting externalities lead to the conclusion that market failure does exist. Therefore, the non-market coordination of soil use is justified. A cost-effectiveness analysis was derived based on the theory of ?safe-minimum-standard? for the appropriate assessment of the implementation options of soil conservation policies. A fuzzy-logic-based method, which is based on an expanded Universal Soil Loss Equation approach (USLE), was applied for the assessment of soil erosion risk in the sample region. The approach considers both the natural conditions and the characteristics of the cropping practice. The very detailed description of the cropping practices allowed for the specific assessment of erosion relevant effects. This, in combination with the high detail site descriptions provided this study with a very precise regional approach. The regional decision-support system MODAM (multi-objective decision support tool for agro-ecosystem management) was applied for the assessment of the economic and environmental impacts of different policy options. The policy scenarios examined include a CAP reform scenario with decoupled payments in accordance with the proposed conditions of the year 2013. This scenario was used as the reference scenario for the other possible scenarios of soil conservation policies. The three main scenarios for the policy options are 1) a non-spatially oriented, 2) a spatially-oriented incentive programmes for reduced tillage practices and 3) a regulation scenario that prohibits the cultivation of highly erosive crops (row crops) on erodible soils. The prohibition of row crops on highly erodible soils led both to lower on-farm costs and lower budget costs in comparison to the incentive programmes for reduced tillage. All three scenarios had comparable reduction in soil erosion. Based on the modeling results the ban on row crops on highly erodible sites is therefore the preferable option in terms of the cost-effectiveness ratio. The inclusion of transaction costs in this study helps expand the scope of policy analysis, for the total costs of a policy would be underestimated if only the budget costs for the direct payments to farmers were considered. Transaction costs understood as a cost for the (re-) definition and implementation of property rights can reach substantial amounts and reduce the total efficiency of a policy. The results of the qualitative analysis of the transaction costs of the study policy options also supported the option of row crop regulation on highly erodible soils. A model that serves as decision support for both the economic and agricultural aspects of soil conservation had been successfully developed in this study. Different policy options were analysed for a cost-effective solution of soil conservation programmes. Based on the final discussion on the involved transaction costs, the regulatory approach (a spatially-focussed ban on row crops) was shown to be the most cost-effective option with potentially lower transaction costs. The main criteria for a cost-effective policy design are high efficiency in both the agricultural measures (practices) and the spatial correlation between the programme area and the high erosion risk areas. Incentive programmes in combination with less effective agricultural practices showed a worse cost-benefit ratio for the sample area than the regulation approach, which is based on more effective agricultural practices.
Nachhaltiger Anbau von Bioenergie : eine ökonomisch-ökologische Analyse für die Landwirtschaft in Baden-Württemberg
(2012) Konold, Angelika; Zeddies, Jürgen
The aim of this thesis is on the one hand to estimate the potential of energy crop production for CO2-sequestration in Baden-Württemberg. On the other hand the focus lies on the interactions that arise from the implementation of optimized na-ture conservation measures with the land management on regional level. For this the existing economic-ecological regional model EFEM (Economic Farm Emission Model), based on linear programming, is further developed. The calculations are made on farm level and are extrapolated on regional level. The model is calibrated on the database for the years 2001-2005 and the so modeled Reference_2003 than is projected to the year 2015 (BAU_2015), this to evaluate the model results without the influence of the great changes in agricultural policy in the last years. Based on the modeled situation for the year 2015 further scenarios are defined that differ in the expansion of energy cropping and nature conservation measures. In the ?biomass scenarios? only the legal nature requirements have to be met while in the corresponding ?conservation scenarios? restrictions that are optimal from a nature conservation point of view, must be considered. The sensitivity analyses for selected parameters proved that the model results have sufficient stability to make reliable statements about synergy effects and conflicts between the expansion of energy crop cultivation and requirements for natural conservation. Altogether it could be shown that with the used model approach interactions be-tween the cultivation of energy crops and nature conservation are represented sufficiently and the objectives of energy and climate policy are compatible.
Ein Nichtlineares Prozessanalytisches Agrarsektormodell für das Einzugsgebiet der Oberen Donau
(2005) Winter, Thomas; Dabbert, Stephan
This dissertation describes a regionalised non-linear agricultural sector model for the upper danube catchment area. The model is used for simulating and forecasting the impacts of different policies measures and of climate change on farming. The most important task of this model is to fit as a part into the decision-support-system Glowa-Danubia. The main idea of the decision-support-system is, that the impact of the Global-climate change to the water on the upper danubia basin can be shown. At first the interactions between agriculture and water are defined. One of the results is that agriculture is an economic sector, which has an important influence on the water-household of the landscape. Many agricultural activities, e.g. tillage, fertilisation, plant-protection have a direct or indirect impact on the waterhousehold. Of course there are some conflicts with other users of the water resource. In consequence a lot of laws guarantee the safety of the water resources. The farmers are bound by law to practice the so called ?good agricultural practice?. Another possibility for policy to influence farmers is that farmers can take part in agri-environmental programs. In the second chapter the connections between the agricultural sector model and the other models are defined. A division of the agricultural sector model into three main modules is necessary, that the dates can be transferred automatically. The three modules of the agriculture sector model can be overwritten with data resources, model equations and result tables. A process-analytical optimisation model was used, because with this methodological approach the use of fertiliser and other farm inputs and the level of production can be simulated. In the plant production 19 different crop production activities with two different intensities were defined. The production level of each crop was defined by using expert interviews with a Probit-Model. The Probit-Model calculates independ of the ?Landwirtschaftliche Vergleichszahl? (a relative number, which indicates the agronomy quality of soils) in order to define the extent of both intensities. In the animal production 15 different production systems are defined. The constraints and the calibration of the non-linear gross margin function are discussed after the definition of the production activities. Some constraints, for example the crop rotation constraint, are not necessary in the non-linear model. The reference situation is the year 1995. The first simulation shows the results for the year 1999. In the Ex-post-analysis from this year both different Howitt-methods, the cost side specification and the yield side specification of the non-linear gross margin function, get compared. Both methods calculate nearly the same results, the forecast of the production activity levels and the gross margins are nearly the same. For the total research area both methods either over- or underestimate the production activity levels for the same crop. If the forecast results are compared by district the forecasting accuracies were different. A system, that one method is better than the other method, can not be found. For the simulation of the scenarios the cost side specification was used. In the first scenario the year 2008 under the conditions of the agenda 2000 was calculated. The production levels are nearly the same as in the reverence year. The consequences of the mid term review of the European Commission are forecasted in the two other scenarios. The conditions under mid term review have a big impact on agriculture, because of the decoupling of the agricultural subsidies from the products. In both scenarios, the cattle meat production decreases. The same results can be shown with the reduction of silo maize and of grassland. On the other side set aside arises in all districts. Positive for the water resources are the reduction of nitrogen load from organic manure. One of the main conclusions is that the positive quadratic programming is an alternative to the linear models for analysis of farms by district level. Of course the aggregation mistake from the aggregation of different farm types to one big district farm can not be carried out. But the positive aspects of the PQP, which are described in literature, can be permitted. A further research theme, which is not answered in this thesis is the combination of the non-linear gross margin with useful econometric methods.