Browsing by Subject "Risikomanagement"

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An empirical analysis of residual value risk in automotive lease contracts
(2011) Nau, Katharina; Burghof, Hans-Peter
The work at hand concentrates on the risk structure of lease contracts and therefore aims to give insights and support to the risk management of lease firms. The focus lies on a special and highly important type of risk in such contracts named residual value risk describing the risk arising from deviations of the actual residual value at maturity stage of the contract from the estimated one fixed in the contract at its completion. My analysis deals with automobile leases covering the major share of this market. The main objective of this work is the analysis of two research question: 1.) What determines residual values? 2.) How can residual values be predicted? On the one hand, a minimum level of predictability is necessary to manage residual value risk. That is why an identification of determinants of residual values is extremely important. The possibility to link fluctuations in residual values to changes in explanatory variables allows one to trace the pattern of residual values based on the pattern of the identified risk factors. On the other hand, residual values are not known in advance but needed at the completion of the lease contract. This is why residual values have to be predicted. These questions are assessed by an empirical analysis using the ARIMAX regression methodology. The analysis uses a sample covering monthly residual values of 17 cars in the German automobile market for the observation period from June 1992 to December 2008. The determinants of the residual values describe the market environment of used cars. Those can be classified into three man categories. The first one illustrates the overall economic situation, the second one describes the situation in the new and used car market and the third one specifies a certain car model in more detail. The empirical results give evidence that the chosen factors influence the residual values of cars. Moreover, those determinants lead to very accurate predicted residual values showing a high forecast ability. Furthermore, the empirical results and considerations are used to conduct a theoretical analysis in order to derive implications for the residual value risk management. The valuation model of McConnell and Schallheim (1983) is used on the one hand to quantify the impact of fluctuations in the underlying factors on the lease rate and, on the other hand, to analyse the effects of misspecifications in an underlying market factor on the lease rate and the value of the lease contract. These theoretical considerations give insights and support to improve the risk management of residual values in lease contracts.
Aspects of demand-side oriented insurance of volatile food prices in developing and emerging countries
(2018) Hochscherf, Julian; Schiller, Jörg
The dissertation is concerned with the relation between formal and informal risk management in developing and emerging countries in the context of rainfall and food price variability. The dissertation contains three research projects. In order to systematize the literature on welfare effects of food price volatility and rainfall risks and the related coping strategies, a systematic review on the quantification of these two risk types has been performed. Many studies in the recent past have been published to quantify poverty effects of materialized risk such as drought events or the consequence of the 2008-09 food price crises in emerging and least developed countries. As agrarian economies in least developed countries heavily depend on the correct onset and amount of rainfall quantities, rainfall failures are likely to have adverse consequences for household income and its volatility. In addition, agrarian households in least developed countries are mostly net food consumers and thus highly dependent on the realization of food prices. The review systematizes the empirical evidence on adverse income effects of drought events and food price increases as well as it summarizes the risk management and coping strategies directly linked to these two shock types. A particular emphasis will be given to the stabilizing power of labor markets and adaptation through consumption responses. The second paper is concerned with informal risk management strategies taken out by agricultural households, in particular with the instrument of labor time allocation. Subsistence farmers in low income countries are confronted with multiple risks. In reaction to them, farm households have developed strategies to cope with yield risks to self-insure against these income shocks. Recent developments in global food markets have increased food price volatility, which, in particular, puts low-income households at risk. When small-scale farmers allocate their labor time over different income generating activities, they face the risk of uncertain purchasing power of income in the presence of food price variability. Thus, the paper analyzes the labor time allocation decision between self-employment and wage labor, taking into account the uncertain purchasing power of wages resulting from food price volatility and the farm production risk induced by rainfall variability. Using a panel structured household data set containing consumer-producer households in rural India, the labor time allocation decision between farming and labor market participation will be analyzed and the effect of production and food price uncertainty on labor time allocation will be estimated. The analysis reveals counterintuitive time allocation effects of risk. The third project is concerned with formal insurance demand by farm households and the interrelatedness between formal and informal risk provision. For this purpose, a data set for a weather index insurance demand product has been analyzed. Index based microinsurance as a tool to insure the income of agriculturally active households has triggered extensive discussions in the literature. Despite the convincing theoretical argumentation, the demand for these products stays behind expectations. Several studies revealed effects impacting the demand for index insurance, such as liquidity constraints, basis risk, lack of understanding and trust in insurers and products alike. This paper takes a different perspective and hypothesizes that low demand is due to heterogeneous risk exposure towards weather variability among potential insured resulting from informal risk management. The paper tests the impact of income heterogeneity as a measure of risk exposure on insurance demand and finds that risk exposure negatively affects insurance demand. In order to increase demand, it is concluded that product design should emphasize more the importance of income risk composition and exposure of potentially insured. The dissertation concludes with a critical discussion of how to reconcile formal and informal risk management practices and gives policy implications of how to innovate existing formal insurance products to increase demand.
Cashflow Hedge Accounting bei Fremdwährungssicherungen: Inwieweit erreicht das IASB die Zielsetzung das ökonomische Risikomanagement mit IFRS 9 besser abzubilden? : Ausgewählte Fragestellungen und Analyse der Offenlegungspflichten gemäß IFRS 7 deutscher börsennotierter Industrieunternehmen
(2024) Ritz, Meryem; Hachmeister, Dirk
Diese Dissertation untersucht, ob IFRS 9 das ökonomische Risikomanagement, insbesondere das Cashflow Hedge Accounting für Fremdwährungsrisiken, verbessert. Anhand von drei Praxisfällen, einer Analyse der Geschäftsberichte deutscher DAX-Unternehmen (2019–2021) und Experteninterviews wird bewertet, ob IFRS 9 die Bilanzierung vereinfacht und nützlichere Informationen gemäß IFRS 7 liefert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass IFRS 9 eine genauere Abbildung von Sicherungsbeziehungen ermöglicht und die Bilanzierungspraxis im Vergleich zu IAS 39 verbessert. Herausforderungen bestehen jedoch weiterhin in der Komplexität der Anwendung, insbesondere im langfristigen Projektgeschäft und bei den Offenlegungspflichten gemäß IFRS 7. Eine Umfrage unter deutschen Treasury-Experten bestätigt, dass IFRS 9 das Risikomanagement besser darstellt, das Hedging-Verhalten jedoch nur gering beeinflusst. Insgesamt erreicht IFRS 9 eine bessere Übereinstimmung zwischen Risikomanagement und Bilanzierung, jedoch bleiben Vereinfachungen bei den Offenlegungspflichten notwendig.
Corporate risk management : new empirical evidence from foreign exchange and interest rate risk
(2019) Hecht, Andreas; Hachmeister, Dirk
Contemporary corporate risk management with its diverse facets and categories commonly involves the usage of derivative instruments. Most of the relevant empirical literature originates from commodity risk management, even though the most important risk categories in terms of derivative usage are foreign exchange (FX) and interest rate (IR) risk. Empirical evidence in these areas is rare and often relies on alternative indicators of derivative usage due to a limited availability of adequate data. We close this gap in the literature and introduce two innovative and hand-collected datasets – one for FX and one for IR risk – from the unexplored regulatory environment in France. Based on an unprecedented data granularity with advanced exposure and derivative usage information, we examine the preeminent topics on the relevance and the determinants (together with the identification) of speculative activities in corporate FX and IR risk management in three empirical papers. Chapter 2 “How do Firms Manage Their Foreign Exchange Exposure?” concentrates on how firms use derivative transactions to handle their FX risk. Regarding the composition of FX exposure, we find the exposure before hedging to be predominantly long, i.e., driven by FX-receivables and forecasted FX-sales, which is on average [median] hedged to about 90 [49] percent with mostly short derivative instruments. Regarding the relevance of speculative elements, we evaluate whether firms decrease, increase or keep their FX exposure stable with derivative instruments and find that about 61 percent of the taken currency positions can be classified as risk-decreasing and about 39 percent as risk-increasing/risk-constant. Instead of solely evaluating the number of occurrences, we further relate the exposure before hedging per currency position to overall firm exposure and find that approximately 80 percent of total FX exposure are managed using risk-decreasing strategies and 20 percent of total firm exposure are managed using risk-increasing/-constant strategies. We further address the documented impact of prior outcomes on hedging decisions with the informational advantage of our FX dataset. We use regression analyses to find supportive evidence that in response to benchmark losses, management hedges significantly more of its exposure and adjusts the hedge ratio closer to its benchmark. In addition, we analyze whether the impact of prior hedging outcomes is subject to the choice of risk-decreasing vs. risk-increasing strategies. With our finding that previous benchmark losses are only considered in risk-increasing strategies, where the exposure is again decreased following prior benchmark losses, but not in risk-decreasing strategies, we complement the growing literature on the relevance of prior hedging outcomes. In chapter 3 “Identifying Corporate Speculation Reading Public Disclosures – Why Firms Increase Risk“, we first examine whether the advanced disclosures in FX risk management of our dataset enable the identification of speculation reading openly available corporate publications. For the first time, the detailed information on FX exposures before and after hedging with corresponding hedged amounts allows for the calculation of firm-, currency-, and year-specific hedge ratios to quantitatively identify speculation as activity that increases or keeps currency-specific FX exposure constant reading public corporate disclosures. Further, we examine the determining factors of speculative activities and find through regression analyses that frequent speculators are smaller, possess more growth opportunities and have lower internal resources. While several theories for speculative behavior have been tested empirically several times, our findings indicate unprecedented empirical evidence for the convexity theories in an FX environment. Chapter 4 “How Do Firms Manage Their Interest Rate Exposure?” is dedicated to corporate interest rate risk management and how firms manage the IR risk with the differing subcategories of cash flow and fair value risk. Similar to FX risk, we evaluate the relevance and determinants of speculation in IR risk management. We observe that speculative elements are more pronounced in IR compared to FX risk management when finding that 63 percent of IR firm exposure are managed using risk-decreasing strategies, whereas 37 percent are managed using risk-increasing/-constant strategies. Contrary to the results in the FX setting, we observe frequent IR-speculators to have less growth opportunities and higher short- and long-term liquidity. We finally combine the FX and IR dataset to examine potential interactions. We find that firms seem to specialize in either FX or IR speculation and that the exposure of frequent speculators is significantly smaller for both risk categories.
Drought impacts and related risk management by smallholder farmers in developing countries : evidence from Awash River Basin, Ethiopia
(2010) Zeller, Manfred; Keil, Alwin; Murendo, Conrad
Climate risk studies have largely neglected household coping and adaptation strategies. In this paper we analyze drought impacts, drought risk management, and resulting drought resilience in Awash River Basin of Ethiopia based on socio-economic data collected from 43 randomly selected Peasant Associations. We find that severe drought periods have led to a significant depression of crop yields and to widespread death of livestock in the past. Drought periods have drastically increased the proportion of food insecure households and lengthened the duration of food insecurity in the area. Since, with climate change, drought periods are predicted to become more frequent in this region in the future, the problem of food insecurity is likely to become even more severe. Ex-ante adaptation strategies are widely practised in Awash River Basin and include the storage of crop residues as fodder for livestock, the rearing of drought tolerant livestock, mixed cropping, the use of short duration crop varieties, and the adoption of soil and water conservation practices. Ex-post coping strategies utilized to manage the consequences of drought include the sale of assets and the reliance on consumption loans and support offered by informal networks. Therefore, suitable policies are urgently needed to strengthen farmers? capacity to adapt to and cope with drought. Training farmers in the production and conservation of livestock fodder as well as in soil and water conservation practices appear to be key policy options relevant in the area. Moreover, improving farmers? access to climate related information, especially drought forecasts, could improve the timely adoption of effective adaptation measures.
Insurance preferences of smallholders : results from an adaptive conjoint analysis in Northern Vietnam
(2008) Buchenrieder, Gertrud; Fischer, Isabel
Livestock plays a pivotal role for smallholder production systems in mountainous Northern Vietnam. Poor rural farm households are vulnerable and their livelihood systems are often so fragile and finely-balanced that a small misfortune can destabilize the households for many years. Economic risks, especially loss of livestock, are one of the major reasons for slipping into poverty. Normally, insurance systems could step in here. In developing countries however, insurance markets are usually underdeveloped. Empirical research reveals that raising livestock and selling it in case of a livelihood emergency is a particularly popular risk management strategy. Based on the results of a computer-based Adaptive Conjoint Analysis (ACA) with 155 responding households of different ethnic minority groups in Son La and Bac Kan provinces of Northern Vietnam, this article examines insurance preferences of rural farm households. In general, smallholders are very interested in livestock insurance. The ?insured animal? is the most important attribute for all respondents and the buffalo is the highest valued animal. However, the critical issue is how to design the insurance package. It is argued that the provision of adapted livestock insurance could help decreasing household vulnerability by a forward looking risk management strategy. Insurance preferences of smallholders are presented and policy recommendations are given to improve the overall situation of vulnerable households in mountainous Northern Vietnam.
Management von Cyber-Risiken und Möglichkeiten des Risikotransfers : eine ökonomische und versicherungstechnische Analyse
(2016) Haas, Andreas; Schiller, Jörg
In a data-based economy cyber-risks are an emerging operational risk. Data breaches, data destruction or business interruption resulting from a cyber attack, can lead to unexpectedly high costs. The increasing exposure of companies to cyber risks is the consequence of a lasting change in the digital economy. At the same time, continuous investments in technological prevention measures to reduce the cyber-damage risk may come to an economic limitation. With the growing use of cloud services in businesses, the cyber-risk exposure increases, especially when sensitive digital information is processed. The problem with cyber-risks regarding cloud services is that the possibilities of technological IT risk management are limited. Moreover, the financial consequences of a cyber attack may exceed the risk-bearing capacity of the affected company. Therefore, risk transfer instruments such as cyber-insurance can reduce the financial risk of cyber attacks. But despite an increased use of cloud services and a significantly rising number of cyber attacks, the cyber insurance market in Germany remains at a very low level. The aim of this work is the economic analysis of the management of cyber risks. For this purpose, cyber risks are explained in detail, and a market analysis of existing cyber insurance concepts in Germany is conducted. We find explanations for the low demand for cyber insurance products in Germany: Especially existing gaps in current coverage are identified as a market barrier. To improve cyber insurance coverage, technological development, and changes should be anticipated and implemented faster into the coverage of cyber insurance products. We developed new approaches to identify and analyze new technological risks in the context of emerging technologies like Cloud-Computing and the Internet of Things. Based on that analysis we highlight the importance of an insurance-based risk transfer. As we identify incentives for companies to externalize the costs of cyber attacks, we discuss regulatory measures to increase the general risk perception in the market to avoid such behavior. With the internalization of the financial consequences of cyber-attacks, the relevance of cyber-insurance as a complementary element in risk management increases.
On the determinants of speculation - a case for extended disclosures in corporate risk management
(2017) Hecht, Andreas
We examine the determinants of corporate speculation and challenge the extant, conflicting evidence. Separating risk management (reducing currency-specific FX exposure) from speculation (increasing or holding currency-specific FX exposure constant), we provide unprecedented evidence that speculators are smaller, have more growth opportunities and possess lower internal resources than risk-managing firms. The refined granularity of our dataset stems from a unique regulatory environment, where a regulating authority recommends additional disclosures for FX risk management in excess of governing accounting standards. Our findings enable investors, henceforth, to identify speculation from public available sources, where our results substantiate the significance of such an extended reporting. Thus, this case of optional disclosures might serve as blueprint for further regulatory refinements in other settings.
Risiken aus Cloud-Computing-Services : Fragen des Risikomanagements und Aspekte der Versicherbarkeit
(2013) Haas, Andreas; Hofmann, Annette
Cloud-Computing services are changing the risk situation of IT-outsourcing and represent a challenge for the insurance industry. The most important problem to guarantee insurability of these emerging risks is that they are not stochastically independent. On the one hand, the interdependent network structure of these risks implies a significant contagion risk; on the other hand, new risks emerge that have not been addressed by existing (cyber risk) policies so far. Insurance concepts should be supported by innovative risk diversification concepts for cloud computing service. Addressing and classifying the new risks resulting from Cloud-Computing services, this article discusses insurability issues and risk management solutions.
Risiken aus Cloud-Computing-Services : Fragen des Risikomanagements und Aspekte der Versicherbarkeit
(2013) Hofmann, Annette; Haas, Andreas
Cloud-Computing services are changing the risk situation of IT-outsourcing and represent a challenge for the insurance industry. The most important problem to guarantee insurability of these emerging risks is that they are not stochastically independent. On the one hand, the interdependent network structure of these risks implies a significant contagion risk; on the other hand, new risks emerge that have not been addressed by existing (cyber risk) policies so far. Insurance concepts should be supported by innovative risk diversification concepts for cloud computing service. Addressing and classifying the new risks resulting from Cloud-Computing services, this article discusses insurability issues and risk management solutions.
Vulnerability and Risk Management for Sustainable Livelihoods of Farm Households in Northern Thailand-
(2007) Sricharoen, Thitiwan; Heidhues, Franz
This research attempts to explain the relationship between poverty, livelihood difficulties, risk and risk management and vulnerability to poverty of farm households in Northern Thailand. Furthermore, this study proposes a health insurance concept addressing risks and poverty of farm households. In line with the objective was to analyse risk and risk management strategies of vulnerable rural households in Northern Thailand. Firstly, the result of a principal component analysis (PCA) was utilized to determine the important factors affecting household poverty. Furthermore, a poverty index was developed. The PCA retained 16 out of 65 possible poverty determining variables. Six of the 16 variables relate to the human resource factor: (1) percentage of adults who can write, (2) percentage of adults who completed primary school, (3) percentage of adults with non-farm occupation, (4) number of children, (5) percentage of unemployed to employed, and (6) family size. There are two variables that relate to food security and which were significant: (7) crop yield and (8) value of main crop yield. Four variables relating to the dwelling show a high correlation to poverty. These are the (9) housing condition, (10) quality of latrine, (11) water system, and (12) furniture. Four variables related to assets: (13) value of transportation assets, (14) farmland owned, (15) value of assets per adult equivalent, and (16) value of agricultural assets. The explicit factors relevant for assessing poverty are the dwelling conditions, assets, human resources, and food security, respectively. The factor which can lead the poor to become even poorer is the human resource factor, where e.g. the number of dependents is comprised. Secondly, results of the PRA showed that the most pressing problem plaguing households is their debt. Households try to honor their debt repayment obligations, but it appears that the frequent occurrence of income shocks and their low risk management capacities prevent them from doing so. Land issues relate to the second most important problem area. Often, farm households lack sufficient land and have land certificate problems. Another pressing problem negatively influencing households? livelihoods are droughts, which lead to water shortages, higher fertilizer prices and middleman problems. The results of the PRA provided an overview of all livelihood problems; they concentrated on livelihood shocks related to idiosyncratic and covariate risks. One idiosyncratic risk of main importance is poor health. Thirdly, results of the risk and risk management analysis found that there are five major types of risks frequently encountered in rural areas: 1) Natural risks (fire, heavy rainfall, heavy wind, damage to house, and drought); 2) Theft risks (theft of livestock, crop and consumer goods); 3) Production risks (crop loss from weather, crop loss from insects, storage loss, low production prices, low production, higher factor price, death of chickens); 4) Life-cycle risks/human risks (birth of children, funeral costs, unemployment, sudden moving away of working family member, old age, death of working member, son is placed in jail, risks of being cheated); 5) Health risks (prolonged sickness, chronic disease, working disability, alcohol problems of head of household and other family member). Fourthly, respondents reported that the burden of health expenses became lower after they had signed up for health insurance. However, 42% of the respondents stated that the health expenses still represented a relatively high burden to their household budget. The respondents were asked about their first choice of treatment when falling ill. The first choice for medical treatment service that households selected was the local health unit because of its proximity to the villagers. The next choice was the state hospital because there were more complete medical instruments than the local health unit; households went there when they became severely ill. The third choice was purchasing medicine from the pharmacy because the price of medicine was cheaper in comparison to traveling to consult a doctor at state hospital. Fifthly, conjoint analysis on health insurance aims to provide concepts for new, alternative health insurance products to support the exiting health insurance system in Thailand, and to help the government reduce health support costs. The analysis will be particularly useful when compared to the governmental health policy that already provides 30 Baht Health Insurance Cards to the rural poor. The households were asked which types of social security services they presently have. The 30 Baht Health Insurance is the most popular, with 88% of households participating in it. Others social security services in the region are the old age health insurance card and others account for the remainder. However, the public hospital was selected most when a household member was severely sick, with 77% respondents. Some gave the reason that the hospital provides full medical treatment and is ready in the case of an emergency operation. Finally, the study examines the linkage between poverty and vulnerability to poverty by the classification of a vulnerable group of farm households, and proposes an empirical measure that allows the setting of a vulnerability to poverty by applying Thailand?s poverty line as a benchmark. The results demonstrated that while 42% of the populations in the study area were poor in 2003, the majority of these are chronically poor (11% of the population). The information further shows that almost one-third of the population is transitorily poor i.e., 30.5% of the total population. This is dominated by a low expected mean consumption (LM vulnerability- the low expected mean consumption) accounting for 31% of total vulnerability (or 13.5% of the total population) and almost one-third was accounted for by high volatility of consumption (or 30% of the total population).
Vulnerability and risk management of rural farm households in Northern Vietnam
(2010) Fischer, Isabel; Heidhues, Franz
Despite the achievements of the ?doi moi? reform process, which was launched in 1986, Vietnam is still one of the poorest countries in the world, with 28.9 per cent of the total population (85 million in 2007) living below the national poverty line (UNDP 2007). Especially the mountainous, rural areas of Northern Vietnam are underdeveloped. Poor and near-poor farm households endure manifold risks and income shocks, which threaten their existence. Normally, insurance systems would step in to assist. In developing countries however, where access to formal insurance services is hardly available, rural farm households have developed alternative risk management strategies. The Sustainable Livelihood Framework (SLF) of the Department for International Development (DFID 1999), was applied as an analytical tool to identify and assess risks and risk management strategies of vulnerable rural livelihoods in the Uplands of Northern Vietnam. The role of informal social networks was analyzed with the help of Social Network Analysis (SNA). An Adaptative Conjoint Analysis (ACA) was implemented to examine the potential demand for a formal or semi-formal microinsurance scheme in the area of livestock insurance. Furthermore, additional insights were gained from interdisciplinary research on issues of human, health and livelihood security, as well as from case studies on natural resource use in Southeast Asia. The central hypotheses of this research on livelihood strategies in general and adaptive strategies such as insurance in particular are that they (1) have the potential to reduce livelihood vulnerability and that (2) the differentiated knowledge of livelihood strategies is crucial for a better understanding of the reasoning behind the exploitation of livelihood assets, such as natural resources or physical assets in the form of livestock, despite the negative medium and long-term effects. Research results lead to the following conclusions: First of all, only a very elaborate use of existing capital assets can improve the livelihood situation of vulnerable households in Northern Vietnam. Living in remote mountainous regions with scarce natural resources and limited access to other assets, the preconditions are rather difficult for ethnic minority people, even more for women. Secondly, in order to improve the situation, all stakeholders have to be aware of the existing risk management strategies (e.g. raising livestock and selling it in case of a livelihood emergency is one of the most popular risk coping strategies in the mountainous regions of Northern Vietnam) and learn from both, advantages and disadvantages of currently applied strategies to translate them into effective policies. Concerning the access to financial services, people still face several constraints, as credits are often not available for certain activities or at a certain point in time. In addition, savings and insurance services, when available are not adapted to the needs. Furthermore, emerging expenditures for livelihood risks usually go beyond the scope of the dis-saving (in cash and in kind) ability of rural households. Taking into consideration the above stated situation of changing agricultural activities, including higher input use, and the resulting decline in the number of large ruminants, one should be very careful not to destroy the so far still functioning traditional social networks. Even though these networks are not able to fully buffer all shocks and crises, they are at least one asset (social capital asset) that is initially accessible by everybody and quite often a means to compensate to some degree the lack of other capital assets as depicted in the SLF. Research results point to a number of policy issues that need to be addressed if household?s vulnerability to poverty is to be significantly reduced among ethnic minority households in Northern Vietnam. First of all, poverty reduction strategies and programs need to consider a broader target group, not only the currently poor but also the vulnerable households. The promotion of innovative financial products, such as a combination of credit and insurance, especially for loans that are taken up to purchase livestock, is considered a successful approach to support vulnerable households. Finally, it is assumed that an efficient and accessible health care system would be an important alternative for securing livelihoods. In addition, im¬pro¬ved extension services and knowledge transfer for all people, especially women, could sup¬port a sustainable future development of ethnic minority households and therefore, in the long-run, lead to poverty alleviation.