Browsing by Subject "Stock market performance"

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Political economy and stock markets in long-term perspective
(2016) Opitz, Alexander; Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle
The dissertation finds widespread connections between firms and the parliament in pre- and interwar Germany. It also gives a comprehensive overview of respective firm and party characteristics. Unlike previous work, the sample includes three different periods, representing three distinct political systems. The regime type mattered a lot, since connections did not add value to a firm homogeneously during monarchy, democracy and dictatorship. They proved effective in general only under National Socialist rule, consistent with previous literature. In the Weimar Republic, only political and economic heavyweights paid off, while in Imperial Germany firms could not benefit from a link to the parliament. Various robustness checks are applied, including propensity score matching, coarsened exact matching and panel data analysis. In addition, the probability of a firm to remain on the market is considered: connected firms were more likely to survive than their non-connected counterparts, especially in times of crisis. Furthermore, the dissertation assesses the price reaction of Russian government bonds using event study methodology. The Revolution of 1905 offers an ideal occasion, as it was accompanied by two opposing constitutional changes within a short period of time. The result contributes to the debate as to whether Imperial Russia could possibly have followed other Western European states, i.e. gradually adopting a democratic rule, or whether a revolution was inevitable – as the writing of Soviet history suggests. As it turns out, investors did not perceive the ongoing as a threat. Rather they considered long-run democratic change to be a realistic. Furthermore, the Russo-Japanese War is taken into consideration, resembling the existing literature. The assessment is based on two types of bonds, listed at both the Saint Petersburg and the Berlin Stock Exchange. Investors in the East and West were largely consistent in their reactions.
The value of political connections in the first German democracy : evidence from the Berlin stock exchange
(2017) Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle; Opitz, Alexander
In this paper, we provide the first overview over all political connections for all firms listed on the Berlin stock exchange in 1924 and for the same sample of firms four years later. In contrast to anecdotal evidence which suggest that these political connections had a positive effect on firms’ performance, an event study based on the election in December 1924 and May 1928 shows only little evidence that political connections had a positive impact on firm value. These results complement previous research emphasizing that political connections might have mattered less in democracies. Indeed, this seems true for Germany’s first democracy - even though it was a very unstable one.