Browsing by Subject "Technischer Fortschritt"

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Die Arbeitsmarktsituation formal Geringqualifizierter in Deutschland : Folgen, Ursachen und Politikimplikationen einer veränderten Nachfrage nach einfacher Arbeit
(2015) Rukwid, Ralf; Hagemann, Harald
This dissertation provides an elaborate discussion of the labour market situation of low-skilled workers in Germany. It starts with a precise description of the employment and wage effects for unskilled labour in the context of a skill-specific structural change and the tendency towards a knowledge-based economy. The analysis focuses on the current job and income opportunities of low-skilled workers as well as the historical developments. This is followed by an overview of the theoretical determinants of the specific labour market problems of unskilled workers and the main explanations for a long-term demand shift away from low-skilled labour (trade vs. technology). Finally, different political approaches for an improvement of the job prospects of less-qualified persons in Germany are presented and evaluated. The focus here is on one hand on various strategies for enhancing flexibility of the German wage structure and on the other hand on a further expansion and improvement of the system of education and vocational training.
Automatisierung, Wachstum und Ungleichheit
(2018) Schwarzer, Johannes; Prettner, Klaus; Geiger, Niels
Die Automatisierung stellt eines der wichtigsten Phänomene dar, welche aktuell innerhalb der Wirtschaftswissenschaften und der breiteren Öffentlichkeit diskutiert werden. Dabei finden sich in Bezug auf die Frage, wie sich die Automatisierung gesamtwirtschaftlich auswirkt, sehr unterschiedliche Positionen: Am einen Ende wird auf die negativen Beschäftigungseffekte verwiesen, wenn Menschen mehr und mehr durch Maschinen ersetzt werden und ihre am Markt angebotene Arbeitsleistung nicht mehr nachgefragt somit obsolet wird. Gleichzeitig wird die Automatisierung auch für einen Anstieg der wirtschaftlichen Ungleichheit verantwortlich gemacht. Optimistischere Stimmen verweisen andererseits auf die Entwicklung seit der Industriellen Revolution, die durch fortlaufende technologische Veränderungen mit hohem Produktivitätswachstum und damit starken Wohlfahrtssteigerungen einherging, ohne dass es langfristig zu Massenarbeitslosigkeit gekommen ist. Der vorliegende Aufsatz diskutiert einige allgemein relevante empirische Daten und skizziert ein einfaches theoretisches Wachstumsmodell zur Analyse der Automatisierung. Die hierbei festgehaltenen Ergebnisse werden unter Bezugnahme auf die aktuelle wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Literatur zu den bisherigen und für die Zukunft zu erwartenden ökonomischen Effekten der Automatisierung vertieft und erweitert. Aus den verschiedenen Ansatzpunkten und Überlegungen werden schließlich wirtschaftspolitische Handlungsmöglichkeiten abgeleitet, wobei auch jeweils diskutiert wird, welchen Einschränkungen diese Maßnahmen unterliegen.
Kooperation als Strategie technologischen Paradigmenwechsels : eine nachhaltigkeitsbasierte Untersuchung der Elektrifizierung des Automobils
(2014) Knappe, Mathias; Pyka, Andreas
Beschleunigung und Reorientierung des technischen Fortschritts überfordern selbst große Unternehmen im Spannungsfeld zwischen Spezialisierung und interdisziplinärer Konvergenz. So wird die Kombination interner Forschung und Entwicklung mit externem Wissen, vor allem in Hochtechnologien, zur zentralen Voraussetzung langfristigen Unternehmenserfolgs. In diesem Kontext untersucht die vorliegende Dissertation das Potenzial kooperativen Verhaltens zwischen Unternehmen zur Bewältigung technologischer Diskontinuitäten am Beispiel des bevorstehenden Paradigmenwechsels im automobilen Antrieb. Dabei wird Kooperation als superiore Strategie zur Stimulation des explorativen Innovationsmodus identifiziert und in eine übergreifende Dynamik der Koordinationseignung im Verlauf technologischen Fortschritts integriert. Bezogen auf den automobilen Antrieb ist eine nachhaltigkeitsinduzierte Destabilisierung des technologischen Paradigmas des Verbrennungsmotors festzustellen, während sich seine intensiven Möglichkeiten erschöpfen. Konsequenz dessen ist zunehmender Innovationsdruck, der konsistenzorientiert eine systemische Transformation von Kraftwerkstechnik und Energienetz sowie einen Paradigmenwechsel zu elektrischen Antrieben erzwingt. Aufgrund der bisher geringen technologischen Reife und hohen Kosten elektrischer Antriebssysteme zeichnet sich allerdings ein Übergang in Form einer graduellen Rekonfiguration über eine Hybridphase ab, deren Dynamik maßgeblich von der Entwicklung der techno-ökonomischen Schlüsselmodule Batterie und Brennstoffzelle abhängt. Die dazu erforderliche technologische Transformation birgt existenzielle Gefährdungen für die etablierten Unter-nehmen der Automobilindustrie, die sich gegenüber ihren Herausforderern explorationsbezogen in einer inferioren Ausgangssituation befinden. Eben hier bieten sich umfangreiche Potenziale kooperativer Exploration elektrischer Antriebe auf Verhaltens-, Innovationsprozess- und Wissensebene. In Relation zu diesen erscheint das reale Kooperationsniveau jedoch als gering, volatil und, vor allem in Deutschland, übermäßig intrasektoral fokussiert. Aus diesen Erkenntnissen ergeben sich Implikationen für Unternehmensführung, Innovati-onspolitik und Forschung. Managementseitig besteht die zentrale Herausforderung in der Befähigung der Organisation zur Dynamisierung von Wissen und Fähigkeiten durch simultan-heterogene Koordination explorativer und exploitativer Innovationsströme. Insbesondere die Erschließung kooperativer Potenziale setzt allerdings die Bereitschaft zur Einschränkung der eigenen Unabhängigkeit sowie zur Abweichung von bewährten Verhaltensmustern voraus. Innovationspolitisch steht die Überwindung von Beharrungskräften durch Anpassung des sozio-institutionellen Rahmens sowie die Förderung langfristiger Kooperation bei potenzialgeleiteter Intersektoralität im Vordergrund. Forschungsbezogen eröffnet speziell die Kombination von Innovations-, Nachhaltigkeits- und Koordinationstheorie ein besseres Verständnis von Triebfedern und Dynamik technischen Fortschritts, das weiter vertieft werden sollte.
Production and employment impacts of new technologies : analysis for biotechnology
(2009) Wydra, Sven
Biotechnology is often regarded as a key technology with high potential for far-reaching social, environmental and economic impacts. Among others, the development and diffusion of biotechnology may have considerable economic effects on production and employment. This paper analyzes the economic impacts of different diffusion paths of biotechnology in some major application fields. Bottom-up technology information from literature, expert judgements and explicit scenario assumptions for various impact factors are combined and integrated in an input-output framework to calculate direct and indirect production and employment effects. The impact on net production and employment differs greatly between the different application sectors and depends on the respective importance of the various impact mechanisms. The indirect economic effects are rather high and exceed direct economic effects. These findings show the importance of a bottom-up approach as well as the consideration of indirect economic effects for appropriate analyses of the impact of biotechnology.
Solving productivity puzzles - on the nature of total factor productivity, technological change and the explanatory power of the mismeasurement hypothesis
(2020) Zwiessler, Oliver; Hagemann, Harald
Long-term economic development, productivity growth and technological progress are inevitably linked to each other. The present study tackles this nexus and elaborates on the declining rates of productivity growth in the recent past. As the field of study is the German economy and in order to avoid problems associated with structural changes, the point of departure for the analysis of productivity trends is 1991. The first part of the study is dedicated to the question, whether total factor productivity (TFP) is a suitable variable for depicting technological progress in the system of national accounts. Apart from providing insight into the evolution of the growth accounting framework, the study presents three views of how to interpret the connection between TFP and technology: a traditional view, which states an equivalence (the „residual-view“), a view that emphasizes the ignorance of the components of the residual and a third-way, which explains the occurence of the residual as a result from (technological) „spill-over“-effects. Usually, the birth point of the theory of growth accounting and the discussion about „the residual“, which form the traditional view, are associated with the works of Robert Solow (1956, 1957). However, it was Jan Tinbergen (1959 [1942]), who has originally set up such a framework, mathematically based on a Cobb-Douglas production function (1928). As a critical reaction on the traditional view, subsequent research has tackled the issue by promoting the ignorance-character of the residual. Moreover, it was tried to minimize this catch-all variable by trying to explain economic growth just with the input factors labour and capital and not a technology-labelled residual. A third possibilty of interpretation is provided mainly by Richard Lipsey and Kenneth Carlaw (2003), who interpret any changes in TFP as „spill-over“-effects from technology, but not technology per se. The second part of the study then tackles the German productivity puzzle – declining rates of productivity growth from 1991 onwards. Accepting a connection between technology and producitivity, decreasing productivity growth rates imply less technological progress – a confusing result in course of the wave of technological innovations of the 21st century. Two strands of explanations are provided. As a first possibility, there is the so-called mismeasurement hypothesis. If measurement errors occur and/or if the system of national accounts is an inaccurate measurement framework, then this could explain the missing portion of output in the data. Potential for mismeasurement exists, i.e. by the problem of capturing quality effects or by the general problem of accurately measuring developments in the ICT-sectors of modern service economies like Germany. In order to evaluate the magnitude of potential mismeasurement, a study by Chad Syverson (2016, 2017) is chosen and applied on Germany. The results of the German application and the base study converge – there is potential mismeasurement, its magnitude however is simply too small to account for the entire bulk of the missing data. In contrast to potential mismeasurement, a second strand of explanation is discussed, implying ‚real‘ economic problems. Applying the theory of secular stagnation, any decline in productivity growth then is the result from insufficient economic conditions. The present study adopts the supply side argumentation, revived and mainly formed by Larry Summers (2012, 2015). Summers‘ argumentation is separated into a major argument of less technological innovations (less significant innovations) and potential „headwinds“, which falter economic growth. The present study analyses the German economy in the light of potential headwinds and finds different headwinds and impacts, compared to Summers‘ original analysis, which is set up for the US. Demographic aspects, insufficient capital spending (especially in infrastructure) and rising inequality are the major headwinds for Germany. In comparison to the US, Germany performs better regarding the educational system and public (and private) debt.
Technical change, task allocation, and labor unions
(2022) Marczak, Martyna; Beißinger, Thomas; Brall, Franziska
We propose a novel framework that integrates the task approach" for a more precise production modeling into the search-and-matching model with low- and high-skilled workers, and wage setting by labor unions. We establish the relationship between task reallocation and changes in wage pressure, and examine how skill- biased technical change (SBTC) affects the task composition, wages of both skill groups, and unemployment. In contrast to the canonical model with a fixed task allocation, low-skilled workers may be harmed in terms of either lower wages or higher unemployment depending on the relative task-related productivity profile of both worker types. We calibrate the model to the US and German data for the periods 1995-2005 and 2010-2017. The simulated effects of SBTC on low-skilled unemployment are largely consistent with observed developments. For example, US low-skilled unemployment increases due to SBTC in the earlier period and decreases after 2010.
Technological unemployment revisited : automation in a searchand matching framework
(2018) Prettner, Klaus; Cords, Dario
Will low-skilled workers be replaced by automation? To answer this question, we set up a search and matching model that features two skill types of workers and includes automation capital as an additional production factor. Automation capital is a perfect substitute for low-skilled workers and an imperfect substitute for high-skilled workers. Using this type of model, we show that the accumulation of automation capital decreases the labor market tightness in the low-skilled labor market and increases the labor market tightness in the high-skilled labor market. This leads to a rising unemployment rate of low-skilled workers and a falling un- employment rate of high-skilled workers. In addition, automation leads to falling wages of low-skilled workers and rising wages of high-skilled workers.
The quest for status and R&D-based growth
(2016) Prettner, Klaus; Hof, Franz X.
We analyze the impact of status preferences on technological progress and long-run economic growth within an R&D-based framework. For this purpose, we extend the standard relative wealth approach by allowing the various assets held by households to differ with respect to their status relevance. Relative wealth preferences imply that the effective rate of return on saving in the form of a particular asset is the sum of its market rate of return and its status-related extra return. We show that the status relevance of shares issued by entrants to finance the purchase of new technologies is of crucial importance for long-run growth: First, an increase in the intensity of the quest for status raises the steady-state economic growth rate only if the status-related extra return of these shares is strictly positive. Second, for any given degree of status consciousness, the long-run economic growth rate depends positively on the relative status relevance of shares issued by entrants. Third, while the decentralized long-run economic growth rate is less than its socially optimal counterpart in the standard model, wealth externalities reduce this distortion.
Three essays on the labor market effects of technological change and unemployment benefits
(2023) Brall, Franziska; Beißinger, Thomas
The dissertation essentially contributes to the discourse on how technological change and a reduction in unemployment benefits affect the labor market. The thesis incorporates an empirical analysis of the influence of automation technologies on wage inequality in Germany. Additionally, the dissertation introduces a novel general equilibrium model to analyze the impact of technological change on the wage setting behavior of labor unions and reevaluate the labor market effects of a cut in unemployment benefits. The first essay contributes to the existing literature in examining the relative importance of automation technologies on wage inequality in the German manufacturing sector between 1996 and 2017. The analysis introduces a novel measure of automation threat, combining occupation- and requirement-specific scores of automation risk with sector-specific robot densities. Using the RIF-based Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition method, the analysis demonstrates that automation threat significantly contributes to wage inequality, in addition to the commonly used demographic factors. On the one hand, there is an observable trend towards occupations with medium automation threat, accompanied by decreasing shares of occupations with high and low automation threat. Due to the fact that within-group wage inequality is the lowest in the group with the highest automation threat, those compositional changes contribute to increasing wage inequality. On the other hand, an increasing wage dispersion between occupations with low automation threat (containing especially non-routine tasks) and occupations with high automation threat (containing especially routine tasks) contributes to rising wage inequality. This is in line with the predictions of routine-biased technical change, where technology particularly substitutes routine tasks. The second essay develops a novel modeling framework for the analysis of skill-biased technical change (SBTC), combining the task approach, wage setting by labor unions, as well as search and matching frictions. The important insight from this analysis is that changes in the firm’s assignment of tasks to low- and high-skilled workers have an impact on the wage setting power of labor unions. The effect of such a change in the task allocation on the labor demand elasticity, and consequently on the labor union’s wage markup, is ambiguous. This has consequences for the effects of SBTC. Unlike the conventional result that SBTC has a positive impact on employment and wages of low-skilled workers, the task-based matching model presents the possibility that low-skilled workers may instead experience either higher unemployment or lower real wages. The model is calibrated to German and French data for the periods 1995-2005 and 2010-2017 to illustrate that the impact of SBTC may even change its sign over time. The results depend on the shape of the task productivity schedule, which reflects the substitutability of high-and low-skilled workers. The third essay revisits the labor market effects of a reduction in unemployment benefits using a modified version of the previously developed task-based matching model. The analysis demonstrates that a cut in low-skilled unemployment benefits triggers a reallocation of tasks towards low-skilled workers. This leads to additional effects on labor market outcomes that are disregarded in the prevailing literature. To highlight the importance of endogenous task allocation, the task-based matching model with exogenous and constant task allocation is considered. Both model variants are calibrated to analyze the effects of the Hartz IV reform in Germany, which involved a substantial cut in unemployment benefits. The calibration reveals a remarkable decrease in the low-skilled unemployment rate by 4 percentage points resulting from Hartz IV. In the case of exogenous and constant task allocation, the decline is limited to 3.4 percentage points, but there are stronger effects on low- and high skilled wages, causing wage inequality to rise more sharply. The results emphasize the importance of considering endogenous task allocation in the evaluation of labor market reforms.
Wachstum und Beschäftigung vor dem Hintergrund des Solowschen Produktivitätsparadoxons
(2000) Schreyer, Markus
Wachstum und Beschäftigung vor dem Hintergrund des Solowschen Produktivitätsparadoxons
Windows of technological opportunity : do technological booms influence the relationship between firm size and innovativeness?
(2010) Degner, Harald
Many papers have been written about the effect of firm size on innovativeness, revealing a positive, a negative or a mixed impact. To this day, the so-called Schumpeterian hypothesis of the above-average innovativeness of large firms has been neither confirmed nor rejected, often because of insufficient data or a too-short observation period. Many studies concentrate only on a specific region or a specific sector, or they analyze a very short time period. Windows of technological opportunities, providing technological booms for both firms and sectors, have not yet been investigated. An analysis of Germany?s chemical, metal and electronic-engineering sectors between 1877 and 1932 reveals that the sector-specific long-term relationship between firm size and innovativeness is negative, except during times of specific technological booms. In combination with firm-specific characteristics, this new aspect can contribute to a better understanding of the long-term relationship between firm size and innovativeness.
Die wirtschaftlichen Folgen der Automatisierung
(2018) Prettner, Klaus; Geiger, Niels; Schwarzer, Johannes
Der technologische Wandel der letzten 200 Jahre ermöglichte es den heutigen Industrieländern, ein historisch einzigartiges Wohlstandsniveau zu erreichen. Nichtsdestotrotz haben technologische Veränderungen zu jeder Zeit Befürchtungen dahingehend ausgelöst, dass sie zu hoher Arbeitslosigkeit und zur Verarmung ganzer Bevölkerungsschichten führen könnten. Aus zwei Gründen ist dies bisher nicht geschehen: Erstens lösten die technologischen Entwicklungen ein starkes Wirtschaftswachstum aus, wodurch sich die Nachfrage so stark erhöhte, dass trotz der gestiegenen Arbeitsproduktivität durch technologischen Fortschritt das Arbeitsvolumen in den jeweiligen Tätigkeitsbereichen nicht in gleichem Maße abnahm. Zweitens kam es zu einem tiefgreifenden Strukturwandel, durch den das Schrumpfen des Beschäftigungsanteils mancher Sektoren (zuerst vor allem der Landwirtschaft, später auch der Industrie) mit der Entstehung völlig neuer Tätigkeitsbereiche (vor allem im Bereich der personalintensiven Dienstleistungen) einherging. Durch den starken Anstieg der Anzahl der Arbeitskräfte im Dienstleistungssektor wurde der Wegfall an Arbeit in schrumpfenden Sektoren (über- )kompensiert. Nun stellt die aktuelle Welle der Automatisierung eine Form der technologischen Entwicklung dar, welche definitionsgemäß Arbeit für gewisse Aufgaben nicht nur teilweise, sondern vollständig ersetzt und somit obsolet werden lässt. Eine Erhöhung der Nachfrage nach automatisiert hergestellten Gütern oder Dienstleistungen kann somit zu keinen direkten positiven Beschäftigungseffekten führen. Wenngleich beschäftigungssteigernde indirekte Sekundäreffekte weiterhin wirksam sind, so sind die neuen Tätigkeitsbereiche, welche im Zuge der Automatisierung entstehen, oftmals weniger arbeitsintensiv als es die Dienstleistungen in der Vergangenheit waren. Dadurch fallen auch die indirekten Kompensationsmechanismen der negativen Beschäftigungseffekte der Automatisierung tendenziell schwächer aus. In diesem Beitrag gehen wir der Frage nach, wie sich die Automatisierung auf das Wirtschaftswachstum, die Beschäftigung und die Ungleichheit auswirkt und zeigen mögliche Handlungsperspektiven für die Wirtschaftspolitik auf, um ungewünschten Auswirkungen vorzubeugen und entgegenzuwirken.