Browsing by Subject "Winterweizen"

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Breeding winter durum wheat for Central Europe : assessment of frost tolerance and quality on a phenotypic and genotypic level
(2015) Sieber, Alisa-Naomi; Würschum, Tobias
Durum wheat (Triticum durum) is a tetraploid wheat that is used for pasta and other semolina products. Quality standards for semolina requested by the pasta industry are very high. Different characteristics should come with the cereal as raw material for an optimal end product. Vitreosity, the glassy and amber quality feature of durum wheat kernels, is an indicator for high semolina yield. The complex protein-starch matrix of glassy kernels breaks the grain into the typical semolina granulate instead of flour during milling. Humid conditions, like late summer rains in Central Europe, have a huge effect on this characteristic, changing this matrix irreversibly. Such processes in the kernel are less understood and challenge plant breeders to find genotypes with improved vitreosity. A set of F5 winter durum wheat lines (Chapter 2) was used to investigate the relationship between protein content and vitreosity as well as the impact of humidity on the stability of the trait. A method to evaluate the mealy part in kernels was improved and enabled to test for the influence of humidity on vitreosity. Furthermore, it was revealed that the vitreosity of a durum wheat kernel depends on the protein content up to a specific threshold as well as on the genotypic potential to form the complex endosperm matrix. The ability to maintain this kernel quality under humid conditions also highly depends on the genetics of a variety. In the Mediterranean region, durum wheat is grown as autumn-sown spring type. The mild winters as well as rain during spring allow the plants to develop well, and the dry summers enable an early harvest in June. Durum wheat production in Central Europe, on the other hand, is confronted with harsh winters and recurring severe frosts. The lack of a sufficient frost tolerance in combination with high quality, forces farmers to use the spring type with a spring sowing. Growing winter durum instead of spring durum wheat, would allow an autumn sowing. Using the winter type in this growing area, could have several advantages like an increased yield and stability due to a prolonged growing time. Further, the constant soil coverage would prevent soil erosion and the growth vigor of winter durum has advantages against weeds. The success of winter durum breeding depends on frost tolerance as a key factor for varieties with excellent winter survival. Discontinuous occurrence of frosts across years and protective snow coverage, however, limit the phenotypic selection for this trait under field conditions. Greenhouses or climate chambers could be used as alternative to test under the necessary conditions, but those fully-controlled tests are time consuming and labor-intensive. The ‘Weihenstephaner Auswinterungsanlage’ are wooden boxes with movable glass lids used as a semi-controlled test. Plants are exposed to all seasonal conditions, including frost stresses, in this test, but they can be protected from snow coverage. While this method is already successfully used to test for frost tolerance in bread wheat, the application in durum wheat has not been evaluated yet. The frost tolerance scorings of winter durum elite lines (F5 and F6) based on the ‘Weihenstephaner Auswinterungsanlage’ were compared to the field evaluation (Chapter 3). It was demonstrated that this semi-controlled test produces reliable and highly heritable (h2 = 0.83-0.86) frost tolerance data. The correlation of those results compared with the field data (r = 0.71) suggests this semi-controlled test as an indirect selection platform. Since it is now possible to test cost-efficient at early stages for frost tolerance, the next challenge was to determine whether the kernel quality or the grain yield suffers from an increased frost tolerance. In a survey with F5 winter durum elite lines, no negative association between frost tolerance and quality or other important agronomic traits could be found in European breeding material (Chapter 4). In order to support classical plant breeding, which relies predominantly on phenotypic data and parental information, molecular markers can be taken into account. Molecular markers can provide an in-depth look into the genetic architecture of traits, enable the determination of the relatedness of genotypes, identify the genetic variation in a population, or can assess the effect of geographic selection preferences. Furthermore, it is possible to assist knowledge-based selection. This improves plant breeding programs on a genetic level. The population structure in spring durum has already been examined with molecular methods in several studies. Winter durum, on the other hand, was only analyzed as a small group as part of spring durum studies or in groups of landraces. A highly diverse and unique panel of 170 winter durum and 14 spring durum lines was analyzed using a genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) approach. A total of 30,611 markers, well distributed across the chromosomes, were obtained after filtering for marker quality. A principal coordinate analysis and a cluster analysis were applied. Together they revealed the absence of a major population structure (Chapter 5). The lines, however, grouped in a certain way, depending on their origin, associated with decreasing quality and increasing frost tolerance moving from South to Continental Europe. These groups allow breeders to conduct targeted crosses to further improve the frost tolerance in the Central European material. Another possibility is to build heterotic groups for hybrid breeding. The linkage disequilibrium (LD) decay was within 2-5 cM, indicating a high diversity in winter durum. The high marker density together with the extent of LD observed in this analysis allows to perform high-resolution association mapping in the present winter durum panel. The 30,611 markers and additional markers for candidate genes in frost tolerance were used to assess the genetic architecture of frost tolerance in durum wheat (Chapter 6). A major QTL was identified on chromosome 5A, likely being Frost Resistance-A2 (Fr-A2). Additional analysis of copy number variation (CNV) of CBF-A14 at Fr-A2 support this conclusion. CBF-A14 CNV explains about 90% of the proportion of genotypic variance. Two markers found in the QTL region were combined into a haploblock and enabled to capture the genetic variance of this QTL. Furthermore, the frequency of the QTL allele for frost tolerance shows a latitudinal gradient which is likely associated with winter conditions. In summary, the selection tools for vitreosity and frost tolerance provided in this study create a platform for winter durum breeding to select for high quality genotypes with excellent winter survival utilizing phenotypic as well as genotypic information.
Bromus-Arten in Winterweizen: Verbreitung, Bedeutung und Populationsdynamik
(2005) Moray, Ralph; Hurle, Karl
The increase of reduced tillage in agriculture and winter cereal dominated crop rotations has lead to a rise of annual and perennial grass weeds in the last decades. One of these are Bromus species that occur worldwide in cereal growing areas. In Germany they also attract more and more interest because of their increasing distribution. Therefore an inves-tigation was conducted to assess the current situation of Bromus species in Germany, competition, population biology and control. Additionally, control strategies were designed on the basis of analyses of population-dynamical parameters. A survey carried out in Germany, showed that Bromus sterilis and B. secalinus were found to be the dominant species. The problems that were predominantly mentioned were yield loss and difficulties at harvest which mostly appear in winter wheat. Their occurrence is closely connected with reduced tillage, early seeding and winter cereal dominated crop rotations whereas Bromus densities can be reduced effectively with a mouldboard plough or the increase of spring crops in crop rotation. In dicot. crops the chemical control was regarded as very good, whereas in cereals between good to sufficient. All of the survey participants expected a further distribution of Bromus species on arable land. Field trials were conducted on three locations over a period of three years to investigate the competition of B. sterilis, B. secalinus, B. tectorum and B. japonicus in winter wheat. Weed density and seeding date of winter wheat were considered for the species competition studies. The trials showed that distinct yield losses could be recorded in winter wheat depending on the different Bromus species. Thresholds where calculated based on the relationship between weed density and yield loss. The thresholds for the Bromus species in winter wheat were below the values given in literature for other grass weeds in winter cereals. This highlights the strong competitiveness of the species. Additionally the results showed that with late seeding the weed density decreases distinctively and thereby the yield loss can be reduced by half. Greenhouse trials on the efficiency of the three in Germany registered herbicides for the control of Bromus species showed, that a sufficient control of B. sterilis and B. secalinus could not always be achieved with the recommended dose. The simulation of the population dynamics showed clearly that with reduced tillage and direct seeding in a winter wheat monoculture without control measures a very fast increase of densities within two growing seasons up to a density-dependent level where high yield losses can be expected. In contrast mouldboard ploughing can control the species to 100 % as a depth of seeds of 10 cm already reduces emergence by half and seeds in the trials showed to have longevity in soil of no longer that 12 months. Moreover, it was demonstrated that the soil cultivation has a higher influence on the development of the weed population than the different seeding dates of winter wheat. The simulation under the influ-ence of herbicide application suggested, that it is possible to practice a winter cereal dominated crop rotation without yield losses. From the results of the investigations it can be concluded that Bromus as a problem in win-ter cereal dominated crop rotation in our latitudes will increase. In fact the control with available herbicides is not always sufficient, but for economical reasons integrated control strategies can not always be considered although quite a good control is given. Therefore one can presume that in future the control of Bromus in winter cereals still will be based on the use of herbicides and that these weed species will be as common in win-ter cereals as it became Alopecurus myosuroides and Apera spica-venti.
Decision support systems for weed management in North China plain winter wheat production systems
(2012) Menegat, Alexander; Gerhards, Roland
The North China Plain region is on eof the major production regions for wheat and maize in China.Weed control practice in the North China Plain has changed from hand weeding towards chemical methods. This change in weed management practice is caused by a shift of labour towards the fast growing industrial sector and by steadily increasing yields which made herbicides affordable even for small scale farmers. Agriculture in the North China Plain region is characterised by a double cropping system of winter wheat followed by summer maize in one year. Due to the continuous overuse of chemical fertilizers, irrigation water and pesticides severe problems are aligned with this intensive cropping system. Especially the accumulation of pesticide residues in the food chain as well as in environmental resources becomes an increasing problem. Objective of this study is to develop a decision support system for weed management for the North China Plain winter wheat production system. Examples in Europe showed that herbicide input can significantly be reduced by implementing decision support systems. Herbicide selection, dosage and timing of application is calculated on basis of knowledge on weed-crop interaction and dose-response relationships of herbicides and weeds. The decision support systems aims to provide reliable decisions under consideration of economic and ecologic effects of herbicide use.
Einfluss der Bearbeitungsintensität beim Umbruch von Luzerne-Kleegras auf die Stickstoffmineralisation zur Folgefrucht Winterweizen im organischen Landbau
(2003) Wald, Fabian; Claupein, Wilhelm
In the crop rotation of organic farming grass-legume mixtures play an important role due to the legumes´ ability to assimilate N. Ploughing-in of established grass-legume mixtures results in releasing the assimilated N by mineralisation of organic matter. In practice the mineralisation can only be controlled by means of soil cultivation. The aim of the present study is to analyse the relations between different intensities of soil cultivation and N-mineralisation. The data were used to test the simulation model CANDY. The field experiment of each 0.1 ha was set up at three sites in two different locations, which were cultivated from 1999 to 2001: Hohenheim (with trials 610 and 611) and Kleinhohenheim (with trial 660). In the beginning all sites had a three-year old grass-clover-alfalfa mixture, which was ploughed-in for trial 610 and 660 in the late summer of 1999 and in the year 2000 for trial 611. The factor soil tillage was varied in three stages as follows: RT+RT+plough: double rototill cultivation (RT, 10 cm deep) in intervals of approx. 2 weeks, followed by ploughing (plough, 25 cm deep); RT+plough: single rototill cultivation, followed by ploughing (depths as mentioned above); Plough: ploughing without any preceding cultivation (depth 25 cm). After uniform seedbed preparation with a rotary harrow, wheat was sown on all trial sites in autumn, and in trials 610 and 660 it was followed by oat in 2001. Nitrogen content in the soil was determined by repeated sampling at a depths of 0-10, 10-20, 20-30, 30-60 and 60-90 cm. Monitoring boxes were installed in 1 m depth in an undisturbed soil body from September 2000 until April 2001 to record nitrate leaching. Ploughing-in of the grass-clover-alfalfa by means of rototiller cultivation (treatments RT+RT+plough and RT+plough) was followed by a significant increase of mineralisation, which in case of the plough treatment was less pronounced. In this case the date of cultivation, 6 weeks after the rototilling, may have had an influence. Nmin-contents in autumn 1999 were higher after RT+RT+plough than after RT+plough. It has to be taken into consideration that there was a time gap between both treatments of 9 days. But also in the following year (611), when both treatments were cultivated the same date, there was a significant, slight difference of the Nmin values depending on the treatment. Nitrate leaching was only measured in trial 611. Quantities of 86, 84 and 64 kg N/ha were observed in treatments RT+RT+plough, RT+plough and plough, respectively during winter. Due to high Nmin-contents in autumn, for the rototill treatments higher nitrate losses can be assumed compared to the plough treatment for both years of experiment. Depending on the location, nitrogen uptake and yields of wheat turned out to be different. In Kleinhohenheim they were lower in treatments RT+RT+plough and RT+plough than in the plough treatment. It was the other way round in Hohenheim on a higher production level. Due to strong hail impact, this relation between the treatments was not to be proved in trial 611. Oat was the second crop. In this case no effects of intensity of soil cultivation on nitrogen uptake and yield could be observed between treatments and locations. The CANDY model was used for simulating the results of trials 610 and 611. First, the model seemed to be inadequate because it could not model the N-dynamic after soil cultivation. Adding fictitious organic material to the system helped to overcome this problem and then, on average, the N-dynamic model fit was satisfying. An estimate to overcome the general insufficient fit of the model could be mineralisation of parts of the physically protected organic matter (SOS), which is already implemented in the model, right at the moment of cultivation. Data of soil moisture of trial 611 served to calibrate the model successfully. With amended soil parameters the model was then easily applied to the corresponding data of trial 610. In contrast, CANDY did not predict well the nitrate leaching - possibly because the model did not consider preferential flow.
Management of Fusarium graminearum-inoculated crop residues : effects on head blight, grain yield and grain quality of subsequent winter wheat crops
(2001) Yi, Cuilin; Aufhammer, Walter
On the experimental station Ihinger Hof of Hohenheim University field experiments with artificial inoculation were conducted. An isolation-strip experiment included strips of winter rape crops, separating non-inoculated test plots of wheat from inoculated wheat plots. For the main field experiment, maize or spring wheat were planted as pre-crops in rotations with winter wheat and different crop residue treatments were applied. Additional residue management greenhouse tests were conducted and treated equivalent to the field experiment. Results of isolation-strips field experiments with wheat showed that. Isolation strips of 2 m width reduced disease incidence on neighbour plots by more than 50%. A further increase in isolation strip width did improve the isolation effect, but the differences between isolation strip widths were comparatively small. The infection in test plots was not completely eliminated even with 8 m wide strips. Greenhouse tests of residue management showed that deeper residue incorporation effectively reduced the F. g. populations on residues. The application of nitrolime reduced the population level of F. g. On the contrary, fertilization with calcium ammonium nitrate promoted F. g. populations. Soaking the residues in a fungicide preparation eliminated F. g. on the residues completely. Residue management field experiments with artificial inoculation of pre-crops, there were no significant differences in infection level after either maize or wheat, and the infection level of winter wheat was especially high after maize for silage use in one year. The reductions of FHB incidence due to ploughing or nitrolime application were 27-32% or 31-59% compared with residues remaining on the surface or calcium ammonium nitrate fertilization, respectively. But at that moderate FHB infection level, the residue management hardly influenced wheat grain yield and technological grain quality.
Phenotypic and genotypic assessment of traits with relevance for hybrid breeding in European winter wheat
(2015) Langer, Simon Martin; Würschum, Tobias
Hybrid breeding in wheat has recently received increased interest, especially in Europe, and large public and private projects investigating hybrid wheat breeding have been launched. Hybrid breeding has been a great success story for allogamous crops and is seen as a promising approach to increase the yield potential in wheat. Wheat covers more of the world’s surface than any other food crop and is the second main staple crop for human consumption. It can be produced under widely varying conditions and is grown all around the globe, yet, yield gain has declined and is lagging behind the needs of the constantly growing human population. Future challenges in wheat breeding such as the establishment of hybrid varieties and the adaptation of breeding germplasm to increasing stresses caused by climatic changes also in Europe require knowledge-based improvements of relevant traits and phenotyping approaches suited for applied high-throughput plant breeding. A major limitation for the establishment and the production of hybrid wheat is the lack of a cost-efficient hybrid seed production system. This requires the generation of parental ideotypes which maximize the cross-fertilization capability. Male parents should have an extended time of flowering, extrude anthers and widely shed large amounts of viable pollen. Females need increased receptivity for male pollen by opening the glumes and extruding stigmatic hair. Furthermore, male plants should be taller than females and a synchronized timing of flowering between the two parents is also of utmost importance. Employing a set of European elite winter wheat lines, we developed and evaluated phenotyping methods for important floral and flowering traits with relevance for improved cross-pollination (Publication I). We observed high heritabilities for important traits such as ‘pollen mass’ (h2=0.72) and ‘anther extrusion’ (h2=0.91). In addition, genotypic variances were significant which warrants further breeding success. Positive correlations were found among important flowering and floral characteristics which enables the improvement of outcrossing by indirect selection. ‘Pollen mass’ for example, was associated with ‘anther extrusion’, ‘anther length’ and ‘plant height’. Our findings suggest the utility of the developed phenotyping approaches for applied plant breeding and the potential of the traits to assist in the design of the male ideotype for increased cross-fertilization. We investigated the genetic architecture of flowering time and plant height (Publication II and III). A panel of 410 European winter wheat varieties was genotyped by a genotyping-by-sequencing approach and in addition, analyzed for the effects of specific candidate genes. The major factor affecting flowering time was the photoperiod regulator Ppd-D1 (58.2% of explained genotypic variance) followed by Ppd-B1 copy number variation (3.2%). For plant height, the two candidate loci Rht-D1 (37.0%) and Rht-B1 (14.0%) had the largest effects on the trait but contrary to reports in the literature did not contribute to flowering time control. In addition, we identified several small effect QTL and epistatic QTL responsible for fine-adjustments of these two traits. Population structure and genetic relatedness in European elite wheat lines was assessed using different types of markers (Publication IV). Results for relatedness differed for the marker types but consistently showed the absence of a major population structure. Regarding the large wheat genome our results revealed that a high number of markers is necessary as there are regions with only low coverage. Concordantly, we were not able to identify the major flowering locus Ppd-D1 without targeted candidate gene analysis. Observations on the findings on population structure could be confirmed in Publication II and III and in addition, the geographical distribution of important flowering time and plant height genes displayed the historical development of wheat breeding in Europe. This information on genetic relatedness among lines can also be employed to assist the establishment of hybrid wheat.
Prospects of genomic selection for disease resistances in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)
(2019) Grote, Cathérine Pauline; Miedaner, Thomas
Die Ziele dieser Arbeit waren (i) die erstmalige Evaluierung des Effekts des Zwerggens Rht24 auf FHB- und STB-Resistenzen, Wuchshöhe und Ährenschieben im Vergleich zum weit genutzten Locus Rht-D1, (ii) die Untersuchung des Potenzials der nichtadaptierten QTL Fhb1 und Fhb5 für die Entwicklung von Kurzstrohweizen, (iii) die Analyse der Vorhersagegenauigkeit von GS innerhalb und zwischen Familien durch die Anwendung der beiden Modelle RR-BLUP (ridge-regression best linear unbiased prediction) und wRR-BLUP (weighted RR-BLUP) und (iv) die Berechnung des Selektionsgewinns bzw. die Bestimmung der korrekt selektierten Top-10 %-Genotypen für FHB- und STB-Resistenzen durch GS. Die Ergebnisse dieser Studie zeigten, dass das gibberellinsäuresensitive Zwerggen Rht24 auf Chromosom 6 die Wuchshöhe um durchschnittlich 8,96 cm senkte, ohne dabei die FHB- und STB-Resistenzen oder den Zeitpunkt des Ährenschiebens ungünstig zu beeinflussen. Demgegenüber senkte das weitläufig verwendete Allel Rht-D1b die FHB-Resistenz um durchschnittlich 10,05 Prozentpunkte in einer Winterweizenpopulation bestehend aus acht biparentalen Familien, die für diese Resistenzloci segregierten. Diese Arbeit hat zusätzlich aufgezeigt, dass die Resistenzallele von Fhb1 und Fhb5 die FHB-Anfälligkeit um 6,54 bzw. 11,33 Prozentpunkte reduzierten und somit bereits allein das nicht-adaptierte Allel Fhb5b in der Lage ist, den negativen Effekt von Rht-D1b auf die FHB-Resistenz im untersuchten Material auszugleichen. Das verdeutlicht, dass die Wahl der Zwerg- und Resistenzgene in Zuchtprogrammen, in denen FHB-Resistenz ein Selektionsmerkmal ist, von entscheidender Bedeutung ist. In dieser Studie wurde des Weiteren das Potenzial der GS innerhalb und zwischen Familien untersucht. Die Vorhersagegenauigkeiten innerhalb einer Familie waren für alle Zielmerkmale höher als die zwischen Familien und unterschieden sich zwischen den einzelnen Familien und Vorhersagekonstellationen. Die stärkere Gewichtung von signifikanten Markern durch das wRR-BLUP-Modell führte zu einer Verbesserung der Vorhersagegenauigkeit im Vergleich zum weit genutzten RR-BLUP-Modell, wenn einzelne Gene, wie Rht-D1, oder Major-QTL, wie Fhb5, vorhanden waren. In dieser Studie wurden die genomisch geschätzten Zuchtwerte (GEBVs) von 2.500 ungeprüften Genotypen bestimmt, basierend auf einer partiell verwandten Trainingspopulation von 1.120 Genotypen. Die 10 % FHB- und STB-resistentesten Linien und eine zufällige Stichprobe wurden unter Berücksichtigung der Wuchshöhe genomisch selektiert und phänotypisch in einem vierortigen Feldversuch evaluiert. Für die FHB-Resistenz wurde ein Selektionserfolg von 10,62 Prozentpunkten relativ zur zufällig selektierten Populationsstichprobe ermittelt. Die GS erhöhte die STB-Resistenz allerdings nur um 2,14 Prozentpunkte. Auch die Selektion von neuen Kreuzungseltern auf der Basis von GS erscheint nicht ausreichend zuverlässig, da nur 19 % der Top-10 %-Individuen korrekt selektiert wurden. Zusammenfassend stellt die GS ein wertvolles Werkzeug dar, um den Zuchtfortschritt für die komplex vererbte FHB-Resistenz über kürzere Zyklen und größere Populationen zu unterstützen. In Kombination mit der Nutzung geeigneter Zwerggene und des nicht adaptierten QTL Fhb5 kann dadurch eine Steigerung der FHB-Resistenz im Winterweizen erzielt werden.
Reducing irrigation water supply to accomplish the goal of designing sustainable cropping systems in the North China plain
(2007) Binder, Jochen; Claupein, Wilhelm
An International Research Training Group (IRTG) of the University of Hohenheim and the China Agricultural University, entitled ?Modeling Material Flows and Production Systems for Sustainable Resource Use in the North China Plain? was launched in 2004. The major hypothesis was ?that adjustments in cropping systems and management practices provided potential for sustainable resource protection on a high yield level?. The research program was conducted in one of the most important economic and agricultural regions in China, the North China Plain (NCP). The NCP is one of the major maize (Zea mays L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) growing areas. A literature review indicated that over the last two decades yields for wheat and maize increased by more than 20%, which had mainly been achieved by augmenting the amount of irrigation water and fertilizer. Besides the positive effects on yield an increasing amount of these input factors leads to many environmental problems. Field experiments were carried out to compare different cropping systems. Currently, the double cropping of winter wheat and summer maize is the common cultivation system in the NCP. It consists of growing two crops mostly winter wheat and summer maize in one year. The winter wheat production depends on a supplemental irrigation, because rainfall is concentrated in the summer months during the maize growing season. An alternative to the intensive double cropping system could be the single cultivation of spring maize. Relative less irrigation water is required for spring maize production, because the rainy season coincides with the main part of the maize growing season. Due to the longer growing season spring maize normally realises higher yields in comparison to summer maize. However, the total yield of a double copping system of wheat and maize is higher. The evaluated system three harvests in two years (winter wheat and summer maize in the first year followed by spring maize in the second year) forms a balance between the double cropping system and the single cropping of spring maize. Due to the fact that three crops are grown in two years total yield is higher in comparison to single cropping of spring maize (two harvests in two years) but lower in comparison to the traditional double cropping system (four harvests in two years). However the lower cropping index in contrast to the double cropping of wheat and maize results in a lower demand of the input factors irrigation water and N-fertilizer whereas in comparison to the single cropping of spring maize a higher amount of input factor is required. Besides the conduction of field experiments for the collection of empirical datasets, the CERES-Maize and CERES-Wheat models were used to quantify the effects of different irrigation management practices on crop growth, productivity and sustainability of agricultural production. Results indicated that there is a considerable potential for reducing the irrigation amount for winter wheat. However, the results also showed that a supplemental irrigation at critical growth stages seems to be essential to maintain high yields and to ensure an adequate gross margin. In a more complex approach the CERES-Maize model was used to simulate the yield of summer maize and spring maize across the NCP. The spatial and temporal climate variability was taken into account by using up to 30 years of weather data from 14 meteorological stations. The simulated results were linked to a Geographic Information System (GIS). Results indicated that the yield distinction between summer maize and spring maize was partially very low as a result of water shortage at flowering stage. A delay in sowing and the use of adapted cultivars with a later flowering date could help to increase spring maize yields. Summarizing, the results of this study indicate that water is one of the most limiting factors for crop production in the NCP. Further, the reduction of total water consumption will become more and more important with water becoming increasingly scarce and thus costly. Consequently agriculture has to undergo and is already undergoing dramatic changes. The results of this study indicated that there are several possibilities optimize cropping systems in the NCP, focussing on a more sustainable use of water while maintaining high yields. In this context, crop models are valuable tools for e.g. irrigation planning or evaluating different cropping designs in the NCP.
Regionalising a soil-plant model ensemble to simulate future yields under changing climatic conditions
(2023) Bendel, Daniela Silke; Streck, Thilo
Models are supportive in depicting complex processes and in predicting their effects. Climate models are applied in many areas to assess the possible consequences of climate change. Even though Global Climate Models (GCM) have now been regionalised to the national level, their resolution of down to 5x5 km2 is still rather coarse from the perspective of a plant modeller. Plant models were developed for the field scale and work spatially explicitly. This requires to make adjustments if they are applied at coarser scales. The regionalisation of plant models is reasonable and advantageous against the background of climate change and policy advice, both gaining in importance. The higher the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of a region, the greater the computational need. The (dis)aggregation of data, frequently available in differing resolutions or quality, is often unavoidable and fraught with high uncertainties. In this dissertation, we regionalised a spatially-explicit crop model ensemble to improve yield projections for winter wheat under a changing climate. This involved upscaling a crop model ensemble consisting of three crop models to the Stuttgart region, which has an area of 3,654 km2. After a thorough parameter estimation performed with a varying number of Agricultural Response Units on a high-performance computing cluster, yield projections up to the year 2100 were computed. The representative concentration pathways of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) RCP2.6 (large reduction of CO2 emissions) and RCP8.5 (worst case scenario) served as a framework for this effort. Under both IPCC scenarios, the model ensemble predicts stable winter wheat yields up to 2100, with a moderate decrease of 5 dt/ha for RCP2.6 and a small increase of 1 dt/ha for RCP8.5. The variability within the model ensemble is particularly high for RCP8.5. Results were obtained without accounting for a potential progress in wheat breeding.