Institut für Tropische Agrarwissenschaften (Hans-Ruthenberg-Institut)

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A microeconomic analysis of household forest plantation in the northern uplands of Vietnam : contributions to payments for environmental services policy
(2014) Manasboonphempool, Areeya; Zeller, Manfred
It is uncontested that forests are imperative for environmental conservation and economic development. Benefits from forests are immense and multidimensional: Forests can support local livelihoods, assist poverty alleviation, and provide environmental services for local communities and greater society. Over the past 50 years, about half of the worlds original forest cover has been lost. Vietnam is among the countries where forest degradation is a serious issue. Several measures have been implemented to alleviate forest degradation, including forest land allocation and forest plantation programs. The current and growing international interest of civil society and governments in the acknowledgement of forest environmental services has become mainstream: Vietnam is among several countries who appreciate the need for payment or compensation to local communities for forest values through the payment for environmental services (PES) mechanism. Since 2010, Vietnam has officially introduced a payments for forest environmental services (PFES) scheme to pursue conservation and development goals. However, there is still a lack of knowledge for farmers preferences for policy design and implementation. In spite of a number of studies examining the impacts of forest policies in northern Vietnam, there is limited research on incentive and forest management at the household level. Such an analysis would provide insightful information and entail implications for PES policy, especially in terms of effective participation and cost efficiency. This dissertation attempts to fill this research gap by examining farmers behavior on forest management and their experiences with forest policies that are necessary for determining effective incentives that can bring about changes in behavior related to forest conservation practice in a mountainous area. The research is based on two survey rounds of 300 representative households in Da Bac district, located in the upstream area of the Hoa Binh reservoir in the northwestern region of Vietnam. As previous afforestation programs are based on a top-down approach, this dissertation contributes to the limited research on the potential demand for and farmers preferences in forest management. The analysis provides policy implications for a PES scheme where voluntary participation and cost efficiency are crucial for its success. This dissertation also contributes to a small but growing body of literature on choice experiment application to the field of forest conservation schemes in developing countries. In addition, the analysis of Transaction Costs (TCs) borne by households under the forest management scheme can contribute to the limited number of studies that have empirically analyzed private TCs, particularly in developing countries. The results of our research underline the inadequacy of previous forest plantation support and recommend that when land is limited, higher financial incentives are needed to make forest conservation attractive in a PES scheme. Depending on the contract, there exists a potential demand for forest conservation with a small subsidy or even without a subsidy if extra land is allocated. This suggests that policymakers should integrate land allocation into PES policies to obtain better cost efficiency. As the results indicate that households have different degrees of willingness to participate in forest conservation programs, we recommend that policies target PES campaigns to households who have less interest in forest conservation, such as households with livelihoods that depend mainly on agricultural production, who have not previously joined the forest programs either due to their ineligibility or distrust in local government authorities, and who have limited market access due to poor road conditions. In addition, given that the security of forests influences the decision to plant forest, strengthening monitoring mechanism or introducing insurance to reduce the risk of plantation failure is recommended as another option to promote participation. This dissertation reveals that the amount of incentives that farmers are willing to accept to plant and conserve forest instead of engaging in farming activities is higher than previous subsidies. In mountainous areas where ethnic minorities still live in poverty, a higher subsidy is expected to achieve both environmental conservation and poverty alleviation outcomes. Nevertheless, a critical question arises as to whether a higher subsidy can lead to sustainable household forest management. This question should be addressed by future research by examining longitudinal data on household livelihood and forest management under a PES scheme. It has not been possible to empirically measure TCs of farmers engaged in community-based forest management where such information would provide interesting results on this matter. The implications on this study could be developed further by expanding the survey and gathering data from participants of community-based forest management. Further research on the comparison of TCs associated with community and individual management is recommended to provide information to policymakers and researchers.
A study of pasture cropping as an alternative cropping system for sub-saharan Africa
(2020) Orford, Rohan; Asch, Folkard
With food security and soil degradation being a major concern and hurdle in the development goals of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), there has been and continues to be an attempt to find an alternative cropping system to conventional monocropping that rehabilitates soils whilst increasing productivity and efficiency of the subsistence cropping system. Such a cropping system needs to be realistically adoptable within the SSA social and ecological constraints. An alternative Australian winter rainfall relay cropping system coined pasture cropping (PaCr) was identified as an option that may surmount some of these limitations.This research involved completing a field trial through to model scale introductory assessment of the water dynamics in PaCr and the implications thereof in yield, water use efficiency (WUE) and competition for water; ultimately assessing the potential of PaCr in SSA. PaCr was adapted to an intercropping system for SSA summer rainfall conditions. The three treatments included the representative subsistence crop cowpea (Vigna unguiculate) and a common indigenous pasture (Eragrostis curvula) and an additive PaCr setup of cowpea directly seeded into pasture in water limited (rainfed) field trials in Pretoria, South Africa between 2013-2015. The DM yields of PaCr were 17% and 293% higher in both seasons compared to the conventional cowpea monocrop yield. When comparing PaCr yield to conventional pasture, there was a 12% and 89% higher yield in both seasons compared to the conventional pasture monocrop yield. The greater yield advantage in 2015 with the limited rainfall indicates that PaCr was most advantageous in terms of DM yield in a drier year which is a time of greatest risk and food insecurity. PaCr was also more WUE in both seasons, being significantly higher than the cowpea monocrop in 2015. Competition also showed a higher degree of competitiveness by cowpea in the wetter 2013-14 season and lower competitive ability in the drier 2015, whereas pasture showed little competitive response in 2013-14 and attaining significantly higher yields than the monocrop in 2015. The results of the field trials were used to adapt the University of Pretoria’s Soil Water Balance (SWBsci) crop model to simulate an intercropping system. Observed field results were compared to simulated results and statistical goodness of fit indicators were assessed, concluding that with all the variations of season and systems, the results were acceptable as an inaugural adaptation of the Soil Water Balance model. Other relevant crop water use parameters were extrapolated from the simulated data allowing for a more complete insight into the field trials. With the adapted SWBsci model, 14-year simulations were run in three different climates and on three different soil types for all three cropping systems to map out the viability of PaCr across an aridity index continuum as a reference for further application in research or in industry and to stress test SWBsci. Results demonstrated that PaCr was only advantageous in dry sub-humid to humid conditions on clay-loam to sandy soils, whereas pasture was dominant in more semi-arid conditions on the three different soils. Cowpea only performed better on clay soils in dry-sub humid to sub humid conditions. These advantages are attributed to differing plant water availability at various root depths suiting growth and/or competition of either one or both crops. These plant water availability differences were determined by water holding capacity of various soil types and rainfall volumes. From a WUE perspective, the pasture and PaCr did have a higher WUE but with the extreme variation in rainfall there was no significant difference. But pasture and PaCr both had a very high WUE in arid to semi-arid conditions due to the deeper roots of pasture accessing stored soil water. Competition also showed insignificant results due to the variation in the rainfall. However, in more arid to semi-arid conditions on clay-loam and sand competition outweighed facilitation thus resulting in land equivalent ratios (LER) of below 1, whereas on clay for the same aridity levels the average LER was greater than one. This was attributed to cowpea have a better competitive ability when clay water holding capacity confined plant available water to the top soil layers. The converse is true in the dry sub-humid conditions and wetter conditions because LER was less than one on clay soils while being greater than one on clay-loam and sand. This was attributed to the lower water holding capacity of sand spreading the plant available water through the profile allowing for niche root partitioning to be effective. For subsistence farmers, PaCr out-yielded the cowpea monocrop in arid conditions on all three soil types and on clay in semi-arid conditions. In the wetter dry sub-humid conditions, PaCr out-yielded cowpea on sand. In the wet sub-humid conditions PaCr does well on clay-loam and sand, but cowpea yields under these conditions are more than adequate to make the choice of PaCr debatable form a yield point of view. However, if soil rehabilitation is a necessity in the sub-humid areas, this makes PaCr a very realistic option.
Accessing rural finance, The rural financial market in Northern Vietnam
(2007) Dufhues, Thomas; Heidhues, Franz
During the transition of the Vietnamese economy, adaptation of the financial system was one of the most challenging reforms. A major task of this reform was to expand the financial systems outreach to the emerging private sector and household (HH) economies, especially in rural areas. Therefore, state-owned financial intermediaries such as the Vietnam Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (VBARD) and the Vietnam Bank for the Poor (VBP) have been established. Despite general successes in terms of credit outreach, certain population groups seem to have been bypassed by both banks. Furthermore, the strategy pursued by national financial policy has focused mainly on credit supply. Other financial services that potentially have a deeper outreach, e.g. savings products, have been neglected by the government. The overall objective of this research study was to create knowledge on the factors that impede or support access of rural HHs in Northern Vietnam to the formal financial system. Access can be hampered at different levels of the financial system, namely macro/meso level, intermediary level and HH level. A joint analysis of the three levels is therefore appropriate. This implies different methodologies and data collection methods. Thus, this cumulative thesis is divided into four main sections investigating different levels of the system and applying different methodologies (i.e. literature review and information economics, principal component, binary logit, and conjoint analysis). The data collection took place between March 2001 and 2002 in two provinces of Northern Vietnam. In total, 260 HHs were surveyed. In addition, qualitative data were collected at all levels. Furthermore, secondary data were collected from relevant institutions. The rural financial market in Vietnam is still dominated by the aforementioned subsidized financial intermediaries, impeding the establishment of viable financial services. Through the creation of the Vietnam Bank for Social Policies (VBSP) (the successor of the dissolved VBP since 2003) the Vietnamese government has separated political lending from commercial lending. Evidence from development banks in other countries suggests that the VBARD, now freed from political lending, is likely to dismiss its peasant clientele and concentrate on wealthier farmers. The question is how long the Government can finance the VBSP, and who will serve the rural poor after the government stops the subsidies and the VBPS cannot carry on its operations? The sustainability of the financial system is still threatened by an accumulation of non-performing loans amassed by state-owned enterprises. In addition, the problem of non-performing loans is spreading to rural HHs. Apart from representing macro-economic threats to the financial system, this moral hazard behavior is hindering the establishment of viable rural financial intermediation. The breadth of outreach of the formal rural lenders is immense. However, the poorest HHs are seldom clients. But general poverty (as captured in the poverty index) does not significantly influence access to formal credit. This means that the poorest HHs simply have much less demand for formal credit products. Improving credit products or offering new credit lines would only slightly improve the credit coverage of poorer HHs. A more promising approach would be to introduce a specialized pro-poor extension service combined with a general improvement in the infrastructure. Nevertheless, the number of access-constrained HHs is surprisingly low, at 16%. One explanation may be the eradication of former access constraints through locally disbursed group credits. However, considering the anecdotal reports of very low repayment rates, the price of eradicating these access constraints has likely been a decrease in financial sustainability. Nevertheless, some barriers to access continue to exist, particularly for ethnic minorities or female-headed HHs. To reduce these access barriers locally-oriented actions should be taken catering to the specific needs of those HHs. The establishment of the VBSP represents an attempt to broaden access in general. But it is questionable whether HHs that do not have access today, or do not demand the existing products, will demand loans from the VBSP. A more sustainable way to promote outreach would be to improve the knowledge of access constrained HHs about credit application procedures. Ethnic or gender diversification of bank staff could broaden the information networks available and could create more awareness of those groups inside the institution. In contrast to the enormous credit outreach, formal savings are rarely used by rural HHs. However, this low effective demand for savings is due to inappropriate services and not to lack of willingness of the rural population to save. Thus, the most appropriate tool to incorporate poorer HHs into the formal financial system would be mobilization of savings by providing adapted services.
Activating institutional innovations for hunger and poverty reduction : potential of applied international agricultural research
(2015) Kamanda, Josey; Birner, Regina
The CGIAR system has made several attempts to improve its organizational structure, the latest being a reform process initiated in 2009. A key issue that has been debated over the years is how the CGIAR centres are best placed within the range of institutions involved in agricultural research and development. The CGIAR still faces the unresolved dilemma between a focus on upstream research that produces international public goods versus downstream activities that ensure impact. Therefore, there is a need to review the CGIARs position on this important question, and to obtain the views of centre scientists and other actors on this question. It is equally important to develop objective approaches to assess the comparative advantage of the CGIAR within the spectrum from upstream research on IPGs to downstream technology dissemination, taking context-specific factors, such as national capacities into account. Case studies are suitable to better understand what works in diverse circumstances and the conditions that have, so far, driven centres to engage in downstream activities. To fill these knowledge gaps, this study used a comparative qualitative case study approach focusing on the legume breeding program of the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT). The studies were conducted in India, Malawi and Ethiopia, a set of countries that makes it possible to study variation in the capacity of national systems. Data was gathered using a combination of methods including a participatory mapping technique called Net-map, expert opinion interviews and a review of relevant documents. Respondents were purposively selected and included ICRISAT scientists, national partners, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), seed corporations, male and female farmers and other stakeholders involved in the research and promotion of improved groundnut and chickpea varieties. The narrative policy analysis confirms that there are contrasting views on whether the CGIAR should primarily focus on the production of IPGs, or also conduct more uptake-oriented activities. The dominant story is that the IPG concept is ideal for framing CGIAR research in a niche that would not be served by the private sector or national systems. The counterstory is that the CGIAR can only achieve impact if attention is paid to both research and development-oriented activities. In view of these contrasting views, which cannot easily reconciled, there is a need to develop objective and practical criteria for assessing the comparative advantage of the CGIAR, taking context-specific factors into account. Using the case studies to illustrate the transactions involved in the development and uptake of technologies, propositions are derived regarding the attributes of transactions for which international agricultural research centres (IARCs) have a comparative advantage over national systems. The analysis indicates that basic and strategic research transactions, such as molecular breeding, have high economies of scale and spillover potential and should ideally be carried out by IARCs. On the other hand, adaptive research, promotion and seed multiplication transactions have low economies of scale and spillover potential and should therefore be ideally assigned to national systems. Besides these two attributes, which are also highlighted in the literature on international public goods, the analysis revealed that transaction intensity and the scope for elite capture and corruption also influence the comparative advantage of the CGIAR centres. Applying this normative framework to the case studies, the influence of contextual factors, especially capacity of national systems, emerges as critical factor. Even though the legume varieties developed by ICRISAT fitted agro-ecological conditions in the target countries, the adoption of these varieties was hampered by institutional constraints. All legumes varieties included in the case studies remained “on the shelf” after their release until ICRISAT got itself involved in seed production and promotion. Capacity building in national systems should be an important role of the CGIAR to ensure that improved varieties are sustainably adopted on a large scale. However, organizations that fund development were found to have a tendency to avoid the difficult and long-term task of capacity strengthening of national systems, and instead use the centres to fill the capacity gaps, which induced the centers to engage in downstream activities. Decision-making and resource allocation for research under the CGIAR Research Programs (CRPs) should therefore take into account the issue of NARES capacity. The centers should constantly assess capacities of national systems to carry out activities that will enable impact in their target locations, and for their mandate crops. Finally, the centres should also manage learning from their involvement in research, as well as complementary activities.
The adoption potential of extended lactation as a strategy to reduce excess calf numbers in dairy farming
(2024) Gresham, Josephine; Reiber, Christoph; Chagunda, Mizeck G. G.
Dairy production relies predominantly on a few, selectively bred, high-yielding dairy breeds, resulting in a surplus of low-value male offspring. This situation leads to a conflict between a growing demand for milk and low appreciation for dairy calves. Extending lactation could reduce the number of calves born. This study aimed to assess the current use of extended lactation in dairy production in Southern Germany, identify the perceived potential, and determine the biological potential extended lactation has to reduce calf numbers. A survey from 2020 with 310 farmers was analysed. A total of 145 (46.8%) farmers used extended lactation. The use of extended lactation on farms correlated significantly with breed, milk yield, interest in continuing or implementing the use of extended lactation, and the indicated feasibility of extended lactation. The perceived potential was assessed by 39.8% of farmers as “high” to “very high”. A total of 17 (12.8%) farmers currently not using extended lactation were identified as potential adopters. Together with existing adopters, this could result in 52.3% of farms using extended lactation, which could biologically reduce calf numbers by 7.3% or 14.1% p.a., when extended by three or six months, respectively. This adoption potential shows that extended lactation can reduce calf numbers considerably, addressing both ethical and economic concerns in dairy farming and benefiting farmers as well as society.
Agent-based modeling of climate change adaptation in agriculture : a case study in the Central Swabian Jura
(2014) Troost, Christian; Berger, Thomas
Using the MPMAS multi-agent software, the present thesis implements an agro-economic agent-based model to analyze climate change adaptation of agricultural production in the Central Swabian Jura. It contributes to the DFG PAK 346 FOR 1695 research projects dedicated to improve the understanding of processes that shape structure and functions of agricultural landscapes in the context of climate change at regional scale. In the context of this example, this thesis discusses, develops and tests novel approaches to deal with four notorious challenges that have so far hampered the empirical use of agent-based models for applied economic analysis: data availability, process uncertainty, model validity and computational requirements. The model is used to examine climatic effects on agriculture, changes in agricultural price responses and biogas support and agri-environmental policies illustrating the applicability of the model to adaptation analysis. The first part of the thesis is dedicated to a methodological discussion of the use of mathematical programming-based multi-agent systems, such as MPMAS, for the analysis of agricultural adaptation to climate change. It synthesizes knowledge about the potential impacts of climate change and processes of farmer adaptation and reviews existing agent-based models for their potential contribution to adaptation analysis. The major focus of the first part is a discussion of available approaches to model validation, calibration and uncertainty analysis and their suitability for the use with mathematical programming-based agent-based models. This discussion is based on four principles required to ensure the validity of conclusions drawn from modeling studies: (i) a transparent model documentation, (ii) that the invariant elements of the model can really be expected to be invariant between scenarios assessed, (iii) that empirical calibration of the model is limited to the extent warranted by available observation and knowledge about the expected error distribution, and (iv) that the effect of process uncertainty on the conclusions is evaluated and communicated. Based on these conclusions, generic extensions of the MPMAS toolbox are developed to allow the application of suitable approaches for validation and uncertainty analysis. The second part of the thesis describes the application of the newly developed methodology in the construction and use of the Central Swabian Jura model. The model focuses on an endogenous representation of heterogeneity in agent behavior, an empirical parameterization of the model, and an incorporation of climate effects on possible crop rotations and suitable days for field work besides the expected effects on yields. It extends the demographic, investment and land market components of MPMAS to improve the simulation of structural change over time. The model was used to analyze potential effects of climate change adaptation on agricultural production and land use in the study area. The results show that besides effects on yields also other climate change-induced effects on the conditions of agricultural production may have important impacts on land use decisions of farmers and deserve more attention in climate change impact analysis. Potential impacts of changes in the time slots suitable for field work and an additional rotation option are predicted to be comparable to the impact of the changes in yields predicted by a crop growth model. Results point to an expansion of wheat and silage maize areas at the expense of barley areas. The partial crowding out of summer barley by wheat area held for current price relations and is less strong at higher relative prices for summer barley. Price response analysis indicated that winter wheat production enters into a substitutive relationship with summer barley production under climate change conditions, while competition with winter barley area diminishes. This leads also to a higher elasticity of the wheat area with respect to relative summer barley prices. The model was then used to analyze biogas support through the Renewable Energy Act (EEG) and the support for grassland extensification and crop rotation diversification through the MEKA scheme. Especially simulated participation in crop rotation diversification is strongly reduced in the climate change scenarios, while the investments in biogas plants are slightly increased. The conditions established by the latest EEG revision imply that further development of biogas capacity will crucially depend on the existence of demand for excess process heat, because the alternative option of using high manure shares seems to be rather unattractive for farmers in the area according to the simulation results.
Agent-based modeling of human-environment interactions in a smallholder agricultural system in the Atlantic Forest (Ribeira Valley, SP, Brazil)
(2021) Munari, Lucia Chamlian; Berger, Thomas
Shifting cultivation systems (SCSs) have been practiced all over the tropics for centuries as the primary subsistence strategy for smallholders. However, since the mid-20th century, SCSs have been submitted to changes, driven by a combination of geographic, economic, socio-political, and demographic factors. Consequently, land use changes lead to agricultural intensification and the replacement of more profitable and permanent practices. The implementation of forest conservation policies (FCPs) is one of the changing drivers to SCSs. They have been designed to reduce or eliminate it, criminalize traditional practices, restrict resources access, displace locals, and increase inequalities and land conflicts. In Brazil, SCSs have been practiced by smallholders and indigenous groups, including Quilombolas, descendants of African enslaved who rebelled against the Portuguese regime. After the abolition of slavery, they remained spread over the country without any state legitimation. Their recognition and rights to ancestors land were possible only in 1988, with the Brazilian Constitution. The Ribeira Valley (Southeastern Brazil) is home to dozens of Quilombos, one of the most significant Atlantic Forest remnants, and high biodiversity. Its first Quilombos were formed in the 18th century and relied on SCS to survive, relatively isolated, up to the 1950s. However, in the context of SCS changes, Quilombos are under a transitional process in different dimensions, including constraints to their traditions by FCPs, generating conflicts. Inspired by this challenging scenario, the Thesis goals are to evaluate Quilombolas’ socioeconomic conditions and the perception of FCPs implementation and integrate two modeling tools. The tools will model the impact of agricultural transitions on family wealth, income, landscape structure, and tree community β diversity and model the impact of FCPs over the equal economic and ecological dimensions. Socioeconomic data were gathered in 2017 in 14 communities through interviews of 164 farmers. Quilombolas’ perception of FCPs and constraints for agricultural practice were investigated. The modeling implementation used MPMAS (Mathematical Programming-based Multi-Agent Systems) to simulate land use change in agriculture and forestry. MPMAS was integrated (through land use maps) with a Generalized Dissimilarity Modeling tool (GDM) to predict beta diversity as a function of environmental variation. The modeling exercise was implemented for Pedro Cubas territory, a Quilombo with 52 households located in Eldorado (SP). A combination of primary and secondary data from different sources was used, including a socioeconomic census of 2014 and a collection of tree data in 2016. Five economic/political scenarios were created for comparisons, with a baseline and four different counterfactual situations, varying in market access and FCPs versions. Seven yield curve scenarios and 30 Sobol’ repetitions were combined, totalizing 1050 simulations. A tradeoff analysis was applied over the political scenarios. MPMAS sensitivity/uncertainty analyses revealed variation on staples consumptions among yield curve scenarios, the sensitivity of income to different parameters, and each income source relevance. The GDM calibration highlighted the importance of climate predictors for tree species, indicating vulnerability to potential climate variability. Results revealed that only 32% of the families were practicing SCS in 2017, but it was still relevant for food security. 83% of the interviewees were unsatisfied with the FCPs, especially the timing of issuing the licenses for SCS. The political scenarios comparison indicates that agricultural intensification caused an improvement in average income. Still, it was accompanied by economic inequality, diminished rotation of plots, lower diversity of habitats, and a less permeable landscape structure (on fallows and because of the emergence of pasture and perennial areas). GDM results showed a significant change in landscape structure/tree community for at least 10% of the territory in the last decades. Regarding FCPs implementation, scenario comparison showed that well-being conditions improved when FCPs were excluded, although more ecological impacts occur. However, such effects refer to only 2.6% of the territory where 90% is covered by mature forest, and GDM indicates that the total ß diversity would not be significantly affected. The tradeoff analysis showed that FCPs are significant for conservation in the present context when perennials and pasture areas occur. In the isolated scenario case, when SCS is the only economic activity, a combination of good well-being and conservation performances was found, suggesting it is causing even lower environmental impacts. I recommend more flexible policies for SCS implementation in the Quilombos in general, for the potential of improving well-being conditions by impacting a small share of the territories. FCPs flexibilization would be even more relevant to the communities that don’t have access to alternatives to SCS.
Agent-based simulation modeling for analysis and support of rural producer organizations in agriculture
(2014) Latynskiy, Evgeny; Berger, Thomas
Development of smallholder agriculture is widely recognized as an important pathway to poverty reduction in rural areas, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Many researchers propose collective action of smallholder farmers by means of rural producer organizations (RPO) as a promising opportunity to improve commercialization and market access of small farms, which in turn will result in improvement of rural livelihoods. However, little is known about the determinants of RPO success. Currently, there is a broad demand for detailed analyses of RPO performance and for ex-ante assessments of the developmental interventions and policies of RPO support. This thesis focuses on the provision of high-resolution quantitative data for the design of such interventions using a case study of coffee producers in the lake-shore Uganda and their RPO. This work demonstrates the effective ways to increase farmers’ welfare through the network of RPO and analyzes the associated risks and opportunities. This work applies agent-based computer simulation to analyze the RPO. Designed virtual simulation experiments assess the broad portfolio of development interventions and economic scenarios that are challenging to investigate by means of real-world empirical research. The agent-based nature of the model allows for a holistic integration of several modeling concepts in the developed model application. This leads to the inclusion into the model of a number of important aspects of the bio-economic system of coffee production in Uganda. The first aspect is the heterogeneity among farming households, reflected by differences in natural conditions, resource endowments, production and market constraints, time and consumption preferences. The second aspect is the inseparability of decisions that are taken on the farm (i.e. investment, production, consumption and marketing) from one another. The third aspect is human-environment interaction cycles and the dynamics of the bio-economic system, including interactions across levels of hierarchy (here: individual farmers and RPO). The constructed model is parameterized, calibrated and validated using the empirical data from project and country-level surveys. The set-up of the model and the results of simulation experiments are further complemented by (i) a detailed review of relevant literature, (ii) community-based participatory research with members of RPO and (iii) interviews with key informants. Results of simulation experiments indicate that RPO activities can cause significant increases in members’ sales revenues and consequently can improve their household incomes. The posvitive impacts of RPO can be amplified through external assistance. Recommended RPO-level interventions include (i) on-the-spot payments for RPO members’ transactions and (ii) support for group certification. Both are expected to have high cost efficiency and a low risk of failure. In addition, results of this thesis suggest that improvement of agricultural productivity through the provision of quality planting material and the promotion of good agricultural practices is likely to be highly beneficial for the rural households. In order to stream the related development policies to smallholder farmers it is recommended to use RPO networks. Findings of the participatory research in Ugandan RPO indicate that the establishment of transparent rules of reception of RPO services and allocation of earned benefits, together with frequent and formal reporting of RPO administration might increase members’ cooperation within an RPO. This thesis also shows the vulnerability of coffee producing households and their RPO to the risks imposed by the volatility of agricultural prices. The role of development policy is, therefore, to provide price risk insurance for smallholder farmers and to facilitate the formation of accurate price expectations. However, viable and sustainable models of smallholder risk insurance are yet to be found.
Agricultural sciences in upland Northern Vietnam : situating research in a dynamic environment
(2006) Friederichsen, Rupert
This paper aims to provide an introductory overview over the socio-cultural context of Northern Vietnam to agricultural researchers. The paper focuses on the interplay between Vietnam?s lowlands and the uplands to specify what makes the Northern uplands a distinct region; as an object of empirical agricultural research and as a context of application of research results. The paper reviews the developments of selected social institutions from pre-colonial times to the current era of ?renovation?. First, developments in Vietnam?s legal and administrative structures are outlined. Second, education and higher education, particularly the agricultural sciences, are discussed. The third and main part elaborates on social, political, and economic specifics of the Northern Uplands. It is suggested that the relationship between formal and informal institutions is crucial for understanding the dynamics of contemporary uplands Vietnam, particularly in the given multi-cultural situation.
Agrofuels, large-scale agricultural production, and rural development : the case of Jatropha in Madagascar
(2019) Bosch, Christine; Zeller, Manfred
Agrofuel production in marginal areas can contribute directly to creating employment and improving local livelihoods. Indirectly, through increasing household purchasing power and relaxing financial constraints of smallholder farmers, it can contribute to greater food production and/or food consumption and rural development. These benefits depend, however, largely on the feedstock crop and its processing, land and labour requirements, the business model, value chains and institutional frameworks. Jatropha, a feedstock crop with more benefits than first-generation energy crops like maize, experienced a spike in popularity in the early 2000s due to its value in the biofuel markets of industrialized countries. The majority of plantations and outgrower schemes could not survive what followed: disappointing yields, pests and disease, low oil prices, the 2007/2008 food price crisis, negative narratives, and inadequate funding for further research activities. Despite these challenges, large-scale land investments and new Jatropha projects continue to be undertaken. Madagascar is a country characterized by severely eroded and degraded pasturelands, low agricultural productivity, high vulnerability to climatic shocks, and overwhelming poverty and food insecurity rates. It is hypothesized that the use of marginal lands for labour-intensive agrofuel feedstock cultivation, in otherwise neglected areas, through both public and private investment, will have positive impacts through the provision of wage work in large-scale plantation schemes. Although a number of studies have investigated the rural livelihood impacts of participation in Jatropha cultivation, there is little evidence that quantifies the long-term and indirect effects on smallholder food production and household food security. Against this background, large-scale Jatropha cultivation lends itself well to studying the complex interplay between feedstock and food production, as well as the potential for agricultural and rural development. Such analysis would provide useful insights and implications for cost-effective rural development policies to target poor farmers in remote areas. Drawing on a conceptual framework that highlights the role of smallholder farmers’ livelihood strategies like off-farm employment and agricultural intensification, and livelihood outcomes like food security, this thesis explores the contribution of large-scale agrofuel feedstock cultivation on marginal land. Three important outcomes, namely household food security, information and innovation spillover effects, and agricultural input use, are studied empirically in three articles, using a comprehensive household panel data set. The data was collected in six survey rounds between 2008 and 2014, in three villages near a large-scale Jatropha project in the Haute Matsiatra region, located in Madagascar’s Southern Highlands. The first article examines the relationship between wage work for a Jatropha project and household food security. Jatropha cultivation on marginal land is labour intensive and does not compete with food production. Therefore, incomes earned can contribute to increased food security directly as well as indirectly through increased or diversified food production. Using five rounds of household panel data, results show that labour demand from the plantation declined substantially after the build-up phase and Jatropha incomes were mostly used for food and other necessities. Fixed effects models show that Jatropha work contributed significantly to an improved dietary diversity. Despite the possibility to earn income during the lean season, Jatropha work did not lead to a reduction in the more subjective lack of food and led to reduced rice stocks. Both food production and consumption were highly influenced by drought shocks and locust plagues, indicating that complementing income creation strategies with agricultural development strategies might have further positive effects on food security. To shed light on the impact pathway from Jatropha work to agricultural production, the second article explores information dissemination through social networks and through Jatropha workers who are more exposed to modern technologies than control households. In addition to institutional factors, a lack of knowledge and limited extension services for improved agricultural technologies are considered barriers to information dissemination. Using two rounds of the dataset, which contains rich information on social capital and networks as well as knowledge and innovations, determinants of production-relevant knowledge like extension services, credit and marketing opportunities are estimated. Accounting for potential endogeneity with lagged and instrumental variables, the relevance of this knowledge to the adoption of innovations and the cultivation of a formerly taboo legume, as an example of diversification, is tested. The results indicate limited access to information, little knowledge on investment and marketing opportunities, and low adoption of innovations. Knowledge is relevant for both innovation performance and the cultivation of the Bambara groundnut, highlighting the need to increase and improve public extension services and information dissemination in rural Madagascar. Adoption is not only encouraged by knowledge, but also directly motivated through informal social networks. Bambara groundnut spillovers from the biofuel project can be observed, relaxing some of the constraints farmers face concerning access to information, social learning, and cultural norms. The third article explores one specific hypothesized spillover: access to and use of agricultural inputs. Given the very low use of improved inputs in rural areas in Madagascar, this study explores whether improved seed and seed information distributed to farmers encourages farmers to cultivate the seed. The analysis is based on household data gathered between 2012 and 2014 from 390 households in three villages. To investigate the adoption of improved seed, as well as the diffusion of information regarding improved seed, a randomized control trial was applied in 2013. Half of the 390 households were randomly assigned to receive the improved lima bean seed (Phaseolus lunatus), which is specifically bred for dry regions. Of the seed-receiving households, half were randomly assigned to receive information on how to store, plant, and cultivate the improved seed, as the variety was unfamiliar in the region. The control group and the two treatment groups are compared with respect to baseline characteristics, bean cultivation, information exchange with other farmers, legume consumption, and willingness to pay (WTP) for improved bean seed. To account for non-compliance, contamination, and spillover effects, local average treatment effects (LATE) are estimated. Of the seed-receiving households, 54% cultivated the seed, reaping an average yield of 6.3 kg for each kilogram of seed obtained. Seed information did not lead to higher yields. A small significant positive impact of seed distribution on legume consumption is found. WTP is 171% of the local market price for bean seed; provision of free seeds and information did not result in a higher WTP. Based on these findings, this thesis contributes empirical evidence that large-scale agrofuel feedstock production on marginal land can enhance rural livelihoods by offering alternative livelihood strategies especially for poorer households and contributing to improved livelihood outcomes. Accounting for the indirect effects shows important impact pathways on the livelihood strategies of farmers in a remote area. The provision of incentives for private investors, complemented by more public intervention in rural areas, as well as more investment in agricultural research and extension to reduce agricultural production risks, might enhance these spillovers.
An analysis of gender in intra-household decision-making as an important socio-economic factor in agriculture-nutrition linkages
(2021) Sariyev, Orkhan; Zeller, Manfred
In 2018, almost 2 billion people around the globe experienced severe or moderate levels of food insecurity. Poverty is strongly linked with food insecurity, and most of the extreme poor live in rural areas where agriculture is the main livelihood. Thus, agricultural and rural development have profound implications for rural households. Agricultural produce is consumed or marketed or both; when marketed, the generated income can be used for (safe and nutritious) food purchases and non-food expenditures, including medical expenses and investments in sanitation. Some income may not be consumed directly but saved or invested in the form of physical, social or human capital. Moreover, considering that the end goal of development should be an environment in which people can be creative and freely enjoy a long and healthy life, rural and agricultural development will have implications for all elements of human development: health, education, poverty, environment, security, women’s status, and finally, food and nutrition. The effect is seemingly more direct and profound in terms of its contribution to a healthy household environment and food security, which together determine nutritional outcomes. However, this seemingly straightforward linkage between agriculture and nutrition is challenged by numerous socio-economic factors. This dissertation concentrates on the gender dynamics of intra-household decision-making as an important socio-economic factor in the agriculture and nutrition framework. Here, I refer to gender dynamics as the interactions and relations between men and women that can strengthen or confront the social norms of a society. Thus, the main objective is to examine the gender dynamics of decision-making as an important component of agriculture-nutrition linkages. There are three sub-objectives that concentrate on selected linkages within the framework. Given the high concentration of women’s empowerment literature in social contexts in which females are underprivileged, the first sub-objective is to investigate the implications of women’s empowerment in contexts in which women historically experienced equality or favoritism. Second, concentrating on the role of women’s empowerment in the agriculture and nutrition framework, the next objective is to study the implications of women’s empowerment on varietal adoption, diversified production, and consumption. The third objective is to examine the viability of production diversification as a strategy to improve household diets. The findings of this dissertation are based on data collected from Bhutanese and Ethiopian households. The survey in Bhutan employed multistage random sampling; it was implemented in November 2017 and covered 251 households in two central districts of Bhutan: Tsirang and Dagana. The survey in Ethiopia was conducted in 2014 and 2016 and covered 390 Ethiopian households located in a radius of circa 150-200 km around the town of Hawassa. These households were randomly selected from a sample of farmers from a survey that was conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) for the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency (ATA) in 2012. This dissertation has five chapters. The first chapter gives a general overview and provides a conceptual framework that helps to describe the research topics and questions investigated in the following chapters. The three following chapters are scientific papers that have been prepared for publication in scientific journals. The second chapter deals with the first sub-objective. It investigates women’s participation in crucial domains of intra-household decision-making and its implications for dietary quality in Bhutanese households. The third chapter studies the effect of the main female’s risk preference on the adoption of high-yielding varieties (HYVs) conditional on the dominance of female preferences declared in domestic decision-making. The fourth chapter explores the association between women’s participation in decision-making and both agricultural production and dietary diversity. The final chapter concludes the dissertation, highlights main limitations, and gives recommendations for future research and policies. Chapter 1 discusses the agriculture-nutrition linkages and interacting socio-economic factors of interest in the conceptual framework of the dissertation. Chapter 2 investigates the implications of women’s participation in domestic decision-making processes for dietary quality in Bhutanese rural households. Bhutan was selected as the country of interest for this chapter because polyandry and matrilineal succession were still observed in some ethnic groups through the 20th century. We employ a mixed methods research approach to investigate women’s participation in domestic decision-making processes and its implications for dietary quality at the household level. Considering the historical presence of matrilineal succession in Bhutan, we also check for any association between women’s land ownership and participation in domestic decision-making using non-parametric tests. Quantitative analyses and in-depth interviews reveal no lack of participation in crucial domains of domestic decision-making for Bhutanese women. We observe a positive association between women’s participation in decision-making and their property rights; thus, it is plausible that the matrilineal succession might have provided for women’s empowerment over time. Moreover, we find that gender equality in decision-making results in better dietary diversity in Bhutanese households. Given the results, we recommend that social programs focus not merely on women’s empowerment, but gender-equal human development in general. The findings contribute to the gender literature and emphasize the importance of gender equality. Considering that females are generally found to be more risk averse than males and that risk aversion hinders technology adoption, in Chapter 3, we study the importance of the main female decision-maker’s risk preference for the adoption of HYVs in Ethiopia. Most often, food security is the ultimate goal for the rural poor in Ethiopia. Their risk preferences are likely to determine their willingness to trade some short-term security for a greater potential income and security in the future. Rural households are disinclined to adopt new varieties as they are unfamiliar and present a risk of failure. The number of female decision-makers in a household is assumed to reflect the dominance of female preference declared in household decision-making. The main female decision-maker is assumed to be empowered to express her preferences more strongly and freely when the decision-making processes involves more female members. In this case, the impact of her risk preferences is likely to be more profound. To the best of my knowledge, this hypothesis has not been investigated before. Considering that rural households are constrained differently, we want to study both adoption and intensity of the HYV adoption. The results show no effect of the main female’s or male’s risk preferences on the adoption of HYV seeds. It is observed that the adoption decision is mostly determined by access and availability, which are captured by wealth, access to extension, and all-weather roads. We observe a positive association between the main female’s risk preference and the intensity of the adoption at higher levels of women’s participation in decision-making. As hypothesized, the conditionality of the effect of female risk preference on the level of female dominance in decision-making is observed. Given these results, we conclude that the main female’s risk preference matters for the intensity of HYV adoption. Given the potential risk of crop failure when adopting HYV, a risk-taking female is willing to risk her household’s short-run security to a potential learning effect from the new variety and potentially gain a higher income and more security in the long-run. The findings from this chapter contribute to the gender and technology adoption literature. The study interacts female risk preference with a proxy that measures female dominance in decision-making in an HYV adoption study. The results of our analysis of the role of the main female’s risk preferences in agricultural technology adoption signify the importance of a gendered lens to intra-household decision-making and risk preferences for future empirical studies. Nutrition sensitive agricultural development programs consider diversified farm production as a promising strategy to achieve better dietary outcomes for rural poor who are mostly subsistence oriented. In Chapter 4, we mainly question the viability of this strategy for rural Ethiopian households. Furthermore, considering that both household-level production diversification and consumption choices are outcomes of intra-household decision-making, we investigate the implications of women’s participation in the domains of decision-making for both outcomes. Thus, there are two objectives in Chapter 4. The first is to estimate the association between production diversification and household dietary diversity in various settings, and the second is to examine the association of female participation in decision-making with both livelihood outcomes separately. We find that on-farm diversification can be a feasible strategy to improve the diets of those who are mostly subsistence oriented and therefore highly dependent on agricultural production and those who live a great distance from markets. These results were obtained by employing and carefully interpreting multiplicative interaction models. We find that women’s participation in decision-making regarding which crops are grown is associated with more diversity both in terms of food groups and the number of different livestock and crop species produced. Nevertheless, we do not find any association when both evenness and richness of crop species are considered together as an indicator of diversification. This is due to the fact that sampled Ethiopian women are observed to be involved in decision-making on small plots, such as kitchen gardens, which contribute to the richness of species but not to the evenness in terms of the cultivated area. Furthermore, we estimate a positive association between women’s decision-making regarding household expenditures (that include food, clothing, and household and agricultural assets) and dietary diversity indicators. In light of these results, we conclude that development programs could promote production diversification in remote rural areas where markets and non-farm income are hardly accessible, but even then, the viability of this strategy is very questionable due to the marginal effects that demand mostly unrealistic changes. We recommend that more attention and effort be directed toward gender-inclusive social and economic development policies together with infrastructural and market development projects to achieve sustainable returns to nutrition. We contribute to the agriculture and nutrition literature by highlighting an important covariate, that is gendered decision-making, and calling attention to an in-depth approach to the analyses of this kind to better assist practitioners. Overall, the main contribution of this dissertation is that the gender dynamics in intra-household decision-making is an important socio-economic factor in the agriculture and nutrition framework. The findings prove that gender sensitive policies and programs will contribute to this component and sustain the linkages between agriculture and nutrition in rural areas. It is observed that women’s empowerment in farming and household-related decision-making positively contributes to various components like varietal adoption, diversification, and household-level dietary diversity in the agriculture and nutrition framework. However, extensive contextual knowledge is necessary to ensure that gender bias is correctly approached and treated to yield positive and sustainable outcomes in different societal settings.
An analysis of institutional arrangements for providing animal health services : a theoretical framework and empirical evidence from Kenya and Uganda
(2015) Ilukor, John; Birner, Regina
Providing adequate animal health services to smallholder farmers in developing countries has remained a challenge, in spite of various reform efforts during the past decades, mainly because of governance challenges. Although good governance has been recognized as an important element in addressing emerging and re-emerging animal disease threats, animal health research has paid limited attention to the governance challenges inherent in the provision of animal health services. The existing frameworks for analyzing animal health services have mainly focused on market failures to decide what the public sector, private sector, and “third sector” (the community-based sector) should do with regard to providing animal health services. This thesis uses transaction cost economics to analyze institutional arrangements for providing animal health services since it captures both market failures and governance attributes. The objective of this thesis is threefold: (1) to develop a conceptual framework for analyzing animal health services using transaction cost theory of economic organization and to provide empirical evidence on its application using data collected on clinical veterinary services in Uganda and Kenya; (2) to identify governance challenges in the provision of animal health services and possible remedies to address them using a case study of Uganda; (3) to examine the quality of services provided by different service providers (paraprofessionals and veterinarians) and to gain insights into paraprofessional-veterinarian relations. This thesis is comprised of six chapters. The introductory chapter provides background information regarding the study areas in Uganda and Kenya, highlights the importance of strengthening and supporting the provision of veterinary services in developing countries, and presents the main research objectives and outline of the thesis. Chapter 2 presents a conceptual framework for analyzing institutional arrangements for providing veterinary services using Williamson’s discriminating alignment hypothesis and generates testable hypotheses regarding the cost effectiveness of various institutional arrangements. Using household survey data collected in Uganda and Kenya on clinical services, empirical tests of these hypotheses are presented. Chapter 3 examines the process of animal service delivery as well as identifies the main influential actors, important social relations, and main governance challenges encountered in the provision of clinical and preventive veterinary services in pastoral and intensive livestock productions systems in Uganda. Chapter 4 examines the determinants of referrals from veterinary paraprofessionals to professional veterinarians. The Chapter 5 examines whether veterinary paraprofessionals perform correct disease diagnosis and prescribe correct drugs for selected endemic diseases. The chapter also examines whether interaction between veterinary paraprofessionals and professional veterinarians would result in correct drug prescription and disease diagnosis. Chapter 6 concludes and offers policy recommendations and areas for further research. After presenting the importance of animal health services in developing countries, a framework for analyzing animal health services is developed in Chapter 2 based on Williamson’s discriminating alignment hypothesis. This framework combines both market failure and governance attributes to assess the cost-effectiveness of different institutional arrangements for animal health services. Some of these attributes include externality, transaction intensity, care intensity, measurability, and state and community capacity. Using this attributes, testable hypotheses regarding the appropriateness of institutional arrangements for providing animal health services are developed. Using data from Uganda and Kenya on clinical veterinary services, empirical tests of these hypotheses are performed to demonstrate the application of Williamson’s transaction cost theory to veterinary service delivery. The empirical results show that paraprofessionals are desirable because they offer needed care and attention to clients since they are located closer to livestock producers and thus have lower transaction costs and may be trusted more by farmers. Professional veterinarians, on the other hand, are preferred by farmers when cases require technical expertise (high measurability). The use of paraprofessional services is found to be positively associated with the availability of veterinarians, implying the existence of synergistic relationship between veterinarians and paraprofessionals. In other words, a referral system may be the most costs effective approach for building state and community capacity to provide veterinary services. After developing the framework for analyzing the provision of animal health services, Chapter 3 examines the process of providing animal health services using Uganda as a case study. A participatory mapping tool called Process Net-Map is used to identify relevant actors and assess their influence in the delivery of clinical and preventive veterinary services in both pastoral and intensive livestock production systems. The tool also helps elicit governance challenges in veterinary service delivery. The results reveal that important social relations in ensuring the provision of quality veterinary services and the timely reporting of animal disease in veterinary service delivery include: (1) cooperation between private veterinarians and paraprofessionals, as well as private veterinarians and government veterinarians in intensive production systems; and (2) cooperation between NGOs, government veterinarians, and community based animal health workers (CAHWs) in pastoral areas. The limited number of trained paraprofessionals and professional veterinarians, absenteeism by government veterinarians, insufficient and unpredictable budgets, weak legislation, exclusion of technical staff from the decision making process, and policy illogicality are identified as major governance problems in veterinary service delivery. Respondents also noted that the quality of veterinary services is very low because paraprofessionals without animal health training have dominated animal health markets in Uganda and the key to improve veterinary services is to build referral arrangements between paraprofessional and veterinarians. Although the literature on animal health service delivery recognizes that referrals between paraprofessionals and veterinarians are important in ensuring correct drug prescriptions and in improving disease surveillance, detection, and reporting, little is known about determinants of referrals between paraprofessionals and professional veterinarians. Chapter 4 analyzes data collected from paraprofessionals in Kenya and Uganda to identify factors influencing referrals from paraprofessionals to veterinarians using a probit regression model. The results show that the determinants of paraprofessional referrals to veterinarians include: paraprofessional’s mobile phone ownership, gender, attendance of short term trainings, annual assessments, and membership in paraprofessional associations. This chapter argues that policy makers should invest in legislation for paraprofessionals, supervision of paraprofessionals, the expansion of mobile phone ownership by paraprofessionals, the formation of paraprofessional associations, and short term training for paraprofessionals to build and strengthen referrals from paraprofessionals to veterinarians. The question of the quality of veterinary services provided by paraprofessionals has been contested in the animal health service delivery literature. Chapter 5 examines this question by using a role play experiment to analyze how the interaction of farmers and service providers influences the quality and demand for clinical services. The quality of clinical services is measured by scoring the accuracy of a service provider prescribing the appropriate drug for selected endemic animal diseases in each of the game’s four rounds. Statistical tests establish whether the quality of services provided by different types of paraprofessionals and veterinarians differ. Learning curves for service providers are constructed to examine whether the quality of services provided by paraprofessionals improves as they continue to interact with veterinarians. Belief updating curves are constructed for farmers to examine whether they change their beliefs about paraprofessionals after receiving information about the quality of they (farmers) receive from service providers. A probit regression model for binary panel data is estimated to determine the factors that influence farmers’ decisions to change service providers. The results show that the ability to identify the signs of different diseases and the accuracy of prescriptions by veterinarians is not significantly different from that of paraprofessionals trained in veterinary science. However, the ability of service providers who are not trained in veterinary medicine to perform these tasks is significantly lower than that of service providers trained in veterinary science. The continued interaction between paraprofessionals and veterinarians gradually leads to an improvement in the ability of paraprofessionals trained in general agriculture and social sciences to perform these tasks. This is not the case for paraprofessionals with no formal training or education. Farmers do not easily change their beliefs about paraprofessionals, even if they receive information on their lack of ability to diagnose diseases and prescribe drugs correctly. Belief updating depends not only on the outcome of the previous round, but also on the gender of the farmer and on the livestock production system. This paper argues that the slow pace in which farmers update their beliefs about paraprofessionals limits paraprofessionals’ willingness to learn and to consult with veterinarians. However, the use of “animal health cards” (records of diagnoses and treatments) could induce paraprofessionals to provide better quality services as well as enable farmers to measure the quality of services, thus improving the quality of veterinary services in the long run. The main policy recommendation generated from this thesis are the following: (1) There is a need for developing countries to invest and create an enabling environment that supports paraprofessionals and professional veterinarians’ relations to ensure timely reporting, treatment, and control of animal disease. This would help reduce wastes and efficiencies in animal production as well as human health risks. (2) The provision of veterinary extension services should focus not only on household heads, but on other household members as well, such as spouses/wives and herdsmen. This could contribute to improved reporting, treatment, and disease control, thus reducing the risks of animal loss and the spreading of diseases to other animals, livestock farms, and humans. (3) Stronger government engagement in the provision of veterinary services in pastoral or extensive livestock is required because the market has failed to attract private and trained paraprofessionals. Our findings indicate that the effort to close this gap by promoting community animal health workers with rather limited informal training has proven to be a rather problematic answer to this problem. This is especially true when these service providers are expected to fulfill a major role in providing curative services since this may lead to the inefficient use or potentially dangerous misuse of veterinary drugs. (4) Farmers need to be empowered to hold service providers accountable by developing and experimenting with tools, such as animal medical cards, that would enable them to measure the quality of services they receive and distinguish qualifications of different services providers. (5) Investment in veterinary education is needed to ensure that enough qualified veterinary staff (both diploma and degree holders) are available to offer veterinary services. This could be achieved by supporting and encouraging recognized universities or tertiary institutions to establish training centers in livestock producing areas and by offering scholarships targeting training community-based animal health workers or students from marginalized/pastoral livestock areas.
An economic analysis of fish demand and livelihood outcomes of small-scale aquaculture in Myanmar
(2021) Aung, Yee Mon; Zeller, Manfred
Given that capture fishery production has either remained stagnant or declined globally, aquaculture has been responsible for the massive growth in the supply of fish to fulfill increasing demand and has also improved livelihoods. The development of the fishery sector, particularly aquaculture, has the potential to contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). New technologies and effective fishery management policies play critical roles in achieving this sectors contribution to the SDGs. Although aquaculture in Myanmar is dominated by large-scale fish farming, a larger number of small-scale aquaculture (SSA) households exist either legally or illegally because profitability and employment opportunities have enticed them to enter the sector. However, the potential of SSA farmers and their challenges are still overlooked. Even though Myanmar is one of the major consumers of fish and producers of aquaculture fish worldwide, to date, a holistic approach that considers the demand and supply side of Myanmars aquaculture sector is rare. The thesis focuses on two main topics. One topic is an analysis of the disaggregated fish demand system. Empirical evidence on whether the aquaculture sector can meet household demand through adequate availability of and accessibility to fish is vital to ensure household food and nutrition security and understand the future of the fish demand. The second main topic focuses on the two aspects of production based on SSA farms; production efficiency and impacts on welfare outcomes from the adoption of sustainable aquaculture (SA) technologies. To fulfill fish demand by increasing the supply of fish from farms, production efficiency of the farmers needs to improve to generate profitable in the face of lower fish prices that will accompany an increase in supply. In addition, traditional aquaculture production practices are risky and are not a long-term option for SSA farmers. Therefore, renewing or modifying productive resources and implementing new technologies may play critical roles in the development of a sustainable SSA sector. The study on the fish demand analysis in Chapter 2 relies on nationally representative data from the "Myanmar Poverty and Living Conditions survey (MPLCS) in 2015,". For the production side analysis in Chapters 3 and 4, primary survey data originate from 440 SSA households collected in three townships in Phyapon District, Ayeyarwady Delta region, Myanmar. Chapter 2 estimates the demand parameters differentiated by fish supply sources (aquaculture, freshwater capture, marine capture, and dried fish) and household groups (wealth group and household location) in Myanmar using a three-stage budgeting framework, combined with a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS). The results reveal that fish demand from all sources of fish and household groups increases with income because fish is the second most crucial food commodity after rice in Myanmar. A substantial share of the increasing demand for all sources of fish is likely to come from poor and rural households with growing incomes due to their higher-income elasticity for all sources of fish. Moreover, less elastic price elasticity of demand in most cases for poor and rural households indicates that those households have less animal protein substitutes for fish available and accessible because fish is the cheapest form of an animal protein source in Myanmar. Due to the income responsiveness of aquaculture fish, its demand will grow faster than that of other fish sources. This study confirms that the rapidly growing aquaculture sector can compensate for the concurrent stagnation of capture fisheries production to fulfill the increase in the fish demand. The studys findings suggest that effective management policies and new technologies are essential to sustain the fish supply from capture fisheries and aquaculture. Intervention programs that sustainably increase aquaculture production will generate the most effective and significant effects on securing households food and nutrition security in the long-run. Chapter 3 analyzes the current technical efficiency level of SSA farms and the link between womens level of participation in decision-making (WPDM) activities and the technical efficiency of fish farming using the two-stage double bootstrap data envelopment analysis (DEA) method. The results show that most SSA farming households are not technically efficient, performing in a range of 45%-60% below the production frontier. All the inputs used contain slacks, such that all of them are over-utilized in inappropriate ratios. This study reveals that while some of the households socio-economic and production characteristics are significant shifters to enhance efficiency of fish farming, decision-making power of women at the household-level is found to significantly improve the level of technical efficiency through its effects on the ability of household members to allocate and organize resources optimally. This study highlights the vital need to promote intervention programs targeted at improving the technical efficiency of SSA farming households. Policies and intervention programs aimed at increasing productivity in the aquaculture sector would benefit by including women empowerment programs to reduce gender inequality and promote equity. Chapter 4 evaluates the determinants and the impacts of SA technologies adoption on SSA households’ welfare outcomes using the endogenous switching regression (ESR) model. The significant value of the correlation coefficients between the error terms of the adoption decision and the outcome equations, as well as heterogeneity in the outcome variables between adopters and non-adopters, confirm that the ESR model is more appropriate than data pooling in a regression model. The models actual and counterfactual results highlight that the adoption of SA technologies increases the SSA households welfare outcomes, measured by fish yield per ha, Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS), and Total Food Consumption Score (TFCS). However, the actual adopters would benefit the most in terms of fish yield per ha and TFCS from adopting SA technologies because the average treatment effects of adoption on adopters are larger than that of non-adopters for these variables. The results highlight that household knowledge about aquaculture production and information sources are main drivers for the adoption decision and improving welfare outcomes. Therefore, appropriate policies targeting SSA development should emphasize the promotion of farmers awareness and adoption of SA technologies by providing improved extension services. This thesis findings contribute to the current debate that the development of the aquaculture sector can help achieve some of the SDGs. In particular, aquaculture can help end hunger through increased food security by making fish more widely available and accessible by increasing the supply of fish. Moreover, aquaculture can improve gender equality and women’s empowerment through creating employment opportunities linked to the aquaculture sector. Given the lower technical efficiency level and positive welfare impacts of SA technologies, it is recommended that the government and other development organizations disseminate information on the improved aquaculture practices and suitable input use through improved extension services to SSA farmers. Due to the dominance of a single fish species in the aquaculture sector, the government needs to support research and development programs in the hatchery sector for a new generation of species. Another recommendation is to reformulate the current "Farmland Law 2012" because it puts restrictions on converting agricultural land to fish ponds, which is preventing farmers entering the aquaculture sector legally. The above policy recommendations are crucial to achieve growth in the SSA sector and increase women’s intra-household decision-making power, thereby opening the door to improve livelihoods.
Analysis of factors driving differences in intensification and income from agriculture among smallholder farmers in Northern Vietnam
(2021) Ufer, Susanne; Zeller, Manfred
Challenged by difficult topography, remoteness, high ethnic diversity, low levels of infrastructure, high poverty, and high dependency on upland farming systems the well-being and incomes of ethnic minorities and the poorest in the Northern Uplands of Vietnam, like in many upland areas in Southeast Asia, are still predominantly linked to agricultural productivity. At the same time agricultural commercialization, the introduction of modern agricultural technologies, higher input use, and stronger agricultural specialization have increased the demands on households’ ability to adequately invest in agricultural intensification and to protect themselves from agricultural income risks. In the Northern Uplands, one of these extensively cultivated, highly commercialized, and highly specialized upland crops is maize. A crop that needs high levels of inputs and is predominantly grown for cash income from poor and non-poor farmers alike. Given the low asset levels of households, it is therefore of particular interest which differences in challenges farmers may face regarding the improvement of maize production dependent on their wealth level. Yet, no detailed research exists that analyses how the level of asset endowments with natural, human, physical, financial, and social capital as well as risk aversion impact technology adoption, maize intensification, and maize productivity of farmers of different household wealth. This doctoral thesis seeks to fill these knowledge gaps by investigating the following research topics: (1) the level and short-term changes in agricultural input use and productivity in maize production by household wealth, (2) the impact of risk aversion on fertiliser use in maize production by household wealth, and (3) the impact of household asset levels and the return to assets on productivity differences in maize production between households of different wealth. Research analysis builds on a quantitative dataset collected from a random panel sample of 300 rural households in Yen Chau district, Son La province, in the Northern Uplands of Vietnam in the period from 2007 to 2010. The research area is relatively poor, ethnic diverse, with a high dependency on upland agriculture, crop income, and maize income in particular. Econometric analysis is carried out firstly by organizing households by wealth through a composite asset-based indicator derived from principal component analysis (PCA) and secondly by applying extensive descriptive analysis, regression analysis, and econometric decomposition-based techniques to the so differentiated dataset. Results from the first research topic (1) “Level and short-term changes in agricultural input use and productivity in maize production by household wealth” show that average numbers on maize input use, maize productivity, and maize income hide important wealth-related differences. While adoption rates of modern maize seeds and mineral fertilisers are widespread and very similar by wealth terciles over time, input use intensity of fertilisers, maize yields, and maize incomes differ significantly between the poorest tercile and the wealthier maize farmers. While a substantial share of the poorest household tercile uses fertiliser quantities well below recommended levels, households of the middle and wealthiest terciles are about twice as likely to apply fertilisers according to average or above-average fertiliser recommendation levels. Moreover, between approximately one-tenth and one-quarter of households from all wealth terciles overuse fertiliser, too. The poorest tercile further buys despite the lower use of fertilisers more often seed and fertiliser inputs on-loan than households from higher wealth terciles. Consequently, the poorest households have to pay relatively higher input costs at otherwise mostly similar market prices for seed and fertiliser inputs and maize output. Yield, input price, and output price risks are high in the research area for all households. However, the poorest tercile of households suffers somewhat more from risks due to fluctuations in yield, output price, and maize income. Results from the second research topic (2) “Impact of risk aversion on fertiliser use by household wealth” show that the fertiliser quantity applied to maize is affected by the risk aversion of the household head in the poorest one-third of households and not affected by the risk aversion of the household head of the wealthier households. The results remain valid when different empirical risk aversion measures (i.e. self-assessment scale and lottery game) are considered, when instead of total fertiliser quantity, the quantity of NPK, urea, or total nitrogen are considered, as well as when different measures of household wealth are considered (i.e. asset-based wealth index, household per-capita income, and household per-capita consumption expenditure). Results from the third research topic (3): “Impact of household asset levels and the return to assets on productivity differences in maize production between households of different wealth” show that quantity-based assets effects are more important for the size of the maize income gap per hectare between the poorest one-third of maize farmers and maize farmers of higher wealth than the return-based assets effects. Quantity-based asset effects significantly account for more than two-thirds of the entire maize income gap, while return-based assets effects are on the contrary not statistically significant at all. From the quantity-based assets effects, credit limit, ethnicity of the household head, and upland land value have large and significant effects. Farm size, value of buffalo and cattle, and household head age have smaller and less constant effects. Credit limit is the most important and most consistent driver by size, showing that financial access for poor minority households is still a defining obstacle to agricultural productivity. Ethnicity of the household head has a strong and positive but decreasing impact on the maize income gap, showing that ethnicity-related soft factors, such as differences in location, agricultural practices, and traditions, should be taken more into acknowledgement. From the significance of the upland land value, we conclude that environmental factors, such as the prevention of soil erosion, the protection of soil fertility, and considerations of long-term sustainability, should gain more emphasis. Other minor factors driving the maize income gap are discussed in more detail in the thesis. From the results of the doctoral thesis, we draw the following main conclusions for the development of pro-poor strategies for the improvement of upland agricultural productivity. Firstly, agricultural research and extension should pay more attention to identifying bottlenecks households face dependent on their wealth level to avoid overseeing the specific obstacles poor and non-poor farmers face that may result in the perpetuation of poverty traps, increased inefficiency, and the waste of resources. Consequently, more emphasis is needed on research and extension that incorporate wealth-related agronomic, financial, and risk-related aspects, that better account for the efficient use of inputs, and that place increased emphasis on the adaptation of technological innovations to the farm systems and needs of upland minorities. Secondly, more emphasis should be placed on helping poor households to deal with risks. While all households face yield, input and output price risks, risk aversion affects input intensification decisions in the poorest one-third of households. Hence, especially for the poorest more emphasis should be placed on the expansion of risk management options that account for the lower risk-bearing capacity and higher risk aversion of the poor, and the often higher transaction costs. This includes measures such as improving the financial literacy of households, allowing households to borrow for consumption, linking credit with insurance or saving options, decreasing transaction costs and the complications linked with successfully applying for loans, as well as, if possible, developing innovations like improved seeds or agricultural management systems that have the capacity to lower the downside risks of production. Thirdly, assets should be considered an important driver of agricultural productivity differences between poor and non-poor farmers. Based on the findings that the quantity-based effects of assets are the major and only significant driver of the maize income gap between the poor and non-poor maize farmers, we conclude that the poorest households can have the same productive agricultural potential as the non-poor if they would have the same level of assets. Supporting households to get access to and accumulate assets should be therefore an important policy goal. This is particularly true about assets that can be influenced by agricultural research, improved agricultural extension, and targeted development policy. Based on our research findings this concerns the improvement of access to credit, the support of ethnic minority households, and efforts to increase the sustainability of upland agriculture. Fourthly, investing in the long-term suitability of maize production and upland farming systems is recommended. While maize can be a very profitable cash crop in the short run, the results of this doctoral thesis also show that a strong specialization in maize production may embody multiple short-term and long-term economic as well as sustainability related livelihood risks. This includes the possibly limited extent of the profitability of additional credit and inputs as well as a strong dependency on the quality of natural resources. In consequence, policies should focus on directly improving the conditions for maize productivity as well as improving the conditions for long-term development. Such measures include supporting households to invest more in profitable on-farm and off-farm diversification, the improvement of infrastructure and extension to increase the profitability of unused cropping choices, the development of profitable soil protection measures, and investments in education and the development of off-farm job alternatives.
Assessing alternative options to improve farming systems and to promote the adoption of low-carbon agriculture in Mato Grosso, Brazil
(2018) Carauta, Marcelo; Berger, Thomas
Currently, our society faces a significant challenge to eradicate hunger and poverty while preserving natural resources and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this context, Brazil plays an important role since it is one of the most significant players in global food production and hosts a variety of ecosystems and a significant share of the Earths biodiversity. The federal state of Mato Grosso (MT) is located at the most dynamic agricultural frontier in the Cerrado-Amazon transition zone and leads the national production of grain, fiber, and meat. The need to balance agricultural production and environmental protection shifted the focus of Brazilian land-use policy toward sustainable agriculture. The federal government pledged to reduce its GHG emissions and implemented policies to enforce it. Brazils low-carbon agricultural plan offers credit with low-interest rate to farmers who want to implement sustainable agriculture practices. These include the restoration of degraded pasture, adoption of integrated systems, no-till agriculture, biological nitrogen fixation, commercial forests, treatment of animal wastes, and climate change adaptation. The present thesis contributed to the CARBIOCIAL project (“Carbon-optimized land management strategies for southern Amazonia”), a German-Brazilian cooperation to investigate viable carbon-optimized land management strategies maintaining ecosystem services under changing climate conditions in the Southern Amazon. In this context, this thesis examines options to improve farming systems in MT and evaluates policy measures that could promote the adoption of low-carbon agricultural systems. The work is divided into three parts: The first part is subdivided into three chapters (chapters 1, 2 and 3) and offers an overview on land use change in Brazil and explores land use decisions of farmers in MT, where highly dynamic double-crop systems currently prevail. The second part is subdivided into two chapters (chapters 4 and 5) and is dedicated to evaluating alternative options to improve farming systems in MT. The third part is subdivided into three chapters (chapters 6, 7 and 8) and investigates factors that may influence farmers to adopt IAPS, evaluates policy measures to promote the adoption of low-carbon agricultural systems, and provides a detailed quantification of individual GHG emissions of a large variety of agricultural practices and the aggregate emissions resulting from their current use in MT. To this end, this thesis develops an Integrated Assessment (IA) approach that simulates farm-level decision-making and agricultural land use change. It introduces a novel approach to evaluate the full distribution of GHG emissions related to the agricultural land-use change in MT. Our IA approach integrates three software packages: MPMAS (Mathematical Programming-based Multi-Agent Systems), MONICA (Model for Nitrogen and Carbon in Agro-ecosystems) and CANDY (Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics). Data to parameterize the model was gathered from several sources, such as field experiments, statistical offices, farm level surveys from private consultancies, life-cycle inventory databases, extension services, expert interviews, and literature. This thesis presents the first extensive study on crop yield response in MT by simulating yields in response to different climatic conditions, soil types, sowing dates, crop rotation schemes, fertilization amounts, and macro-regions. The simulation results show that biophysical constraints still play a crucial role on yield gaps in MT whereas socio-economic constraints have a slight yield-increasing effect. This thesis further examines alternative ways to improve the farming systems in MT by investigating the role of sunflower adoption in increasing farm income. We have found a substantial potential for sunflower cultivation in MT with positive impacts on both farm and regional level. Additionally, we identified bottlenecks for sunflower diffusion such as the distance from farm gate to processing facility. Regarding Brazilian agricultural policy, we have found that the Brazilian low-carbon agricultural program contributed to the adoption of integrated systems. However, we observed different adoption rates through macro-regions and types of integrated systems. Furthermore, our simulations additionally show that the ABC program also contributed to the adoption of less GHG-emitting practices, but its performance is subjected to agent expectations on prices and yields
Assessing participation in agricultural research projects: an analytical framework
(2004) Neef, Andreas; Neubert, Dieter
Recent discourse in the field of agricultural research has focused on how to assess and optimize the use of participatory approaches. In this paper, we propose a new Analytical Framework for the Assessment of Participatory Agricultural Research (AFAPAR) that seeks to evaluate participatory research elements along different dimensions and over several research phases and thus takes into account the complexity and dynamics of agricultural research projects. Empirical data from a long-term collaborative research program on ?Sustainable Land Use and Rural Development in Mountainous Regions of Southeast Asia? (The Uplands Program ? SFB 564) are used to explore the potential and shortcomings of AFAPAR. Findings suggest that while there is a need for further refinement, the analytical framework provides a sound basis for a differentiated assessment of participatory approaches in agricultural research that goes beyond the existing one-dimensional typologies of participatory research with their inherent claim of ?the more participation, the better?.
Assessing the impact of data disaggregation level and non-tariff barriers in regional trade agreements utilizing the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework
(2015) Bektasoglu, Beyhan; Brockmeier, Martina
Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been extensively used by economists for trade policy analysis due to their ability to quantify the impact of a shock on an entire economy. Providing economy-wide numerical results, and including linkages and interactions among main economic variables, agents, sectors, and regions make CGE models preferable in addressing a wide range of economic problems. Among various comparative static, multi-sector and multi-region general equilibrium models, Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) is one of the most extensively used. However, despite the widespread use of CGE models in trade policy analysis, there are still debates among researchers about the right choice of the model to apply. The discussions are frequently about the data aggregation level. The degree of data disaggregation within the CGE models has direct impact on policy simulation results stemming from the aggregation bias. Against this background, one of the focal points of this dissertation is the impact of aggregation bias occurring in GTAP simulations and the reasons behind this bias. Another focal point of this dissertation is the estimation of the ad-valorem equivalents (AVEs) of non-tariff barriers (NTBs) on food and agricultural sector through gravity approach and their subsequent implementa-tion into the GTAP framework for thorough analysis of regional trade agreements (RTAs). With the increas-ing number of economic integration agreements and multilateral trade negotiations of the World Trade Or-ganization, the importance of import tariffs has declined, while that of NTBs has risen, since NTBs are hard-er to address due to their complex structure. However, the welfare gains through the reduction of restrictive NTBs due to RTAs are not negligible. We either use the border effect approach or the free trade agreement (FTA) approach to identify NTBs in the trade between respective countries. NTBs are originally not consid-ered in the standard GTAP framework. However, they can be implemented into the GTAP model in several ways (i.e., as export taxes, import tariffs or as efficiency losses) depending on the policies with which they are related. Due to our focus on the agro-food sector in our articles and the predominance of technical NTBs on this sector, we mainly account for the efficiency-decreasing effect of NTBs. Hence, we model a majority of them using the efficiency approach. For the remaining part of trade costs we utilize the import-tariff ap-proach. In this context, the objective of this cumulative dissertation is threefold: (1) to reveal the impact of data ag-gregation level in trade policy analysis with the GTAP framework, (2) to expose the importance of NTBs in the evaluation of RTAs, (3) to demonstrate the effect of data aggregation level in gravity estimates of NTBs and its subsequent impact on trade policy simulations. Hence, this dissertation consists of four articles which are published or submitted to journals. In our first article entitled "Model Structure or Data Aggregation Level: Which Leads to Greater Bias of Results?", we focus on two fundamental characteristics of CGE models, i.e., the model structure and the data aggregation level. Our results demonstrate that there are substantial differences in results due to the use of GE or PE model structure or data disaggregation level. However, the deviations in results caused by sectoral breakdown are much more pronounced than those stemmed from the model structure. While the economy-wide setting of GE models causes differences across the results of GE and PE models, tariff averaging and false competition ground the reason for deviations in results due to data aggregation level. Following our theoretical work in the first article, in our second article, "Moving toward the EU or the Mid-dle East? An Assessment of Alternative Turkish Foreign Policies Utilizing the GTAP Framework", we focus on more applied analysis. In this article, we analyze Turkeys two different policy options by considering the simultaneous elimination of NTBs and import tariffs in the case of Turkeys membership either to the Euro-pean Union (EU) or Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA). For both experiments, gains from NTB re-moval outweigh the gains due to the elimination of import tariffs. Hence, based on our simulation results, we are able to confirm the importance of NTBs in the evaluation of RTAs. After indicating the importance of aggregation bias in our first article and confirming the impact of NTBs in the evaluation of RTAs in the second, in our third article, "The Effect of Aggregation Bias: An NTB-Modelling Analysis of Turkeys Agro-Food Trade with the EU", we expound the magnitude of aggregation bias in the calculation of AVEs of NTBs. Our estimations demonstrate that using aggregated gravity model to estimate the AVEs of NTBs results in overestimation of trade costs. Hence, the transfer of overestimated trade costs to the GTAP model also leads to overestimation in the simulation results of the EUs extension to include Turkey. Our last article, "Keep Calm and Disaggregate: The Importance of Agro-Food Sector Disaggregation in CGE Analysis of TTIP", is designed as a follow-up to our first article; however, it also includes the key find-ings from the second and third articles. We create five different versions of the GTAP database, which are aggregated at different sector levels. Thereafter, we simulate the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partner-ship (TTIP) between the EU and the United States (US). In addition to what we constructed in our first arti-cle, in this article we also consider the reduction NTBs for each version of the GTAP database. Hence, in addition to averaging of tariffs and false competition, estimation of AVEs of NTBs at different data aggrega-tion levels also has an impact on deviations in simulation results across five versions of the GTAP database. As we have presented in our articles, the use of higher data disaggregation level commonly results in greater welfare and trade effects, but cases also exit in which more aggregated version of the GTAP database leads to larger changes in simulation results. The atheoretic method of trade-weighted tariff aggregation given in the GTAP database is the trigger of lower trade and welfare effects. By calculating of the Mercantalistic Trade Restrictiveness Index (MTRI) for bilateral import tariffs, and comparing them with the initial trade-weighted tariffs in the GTAP database, we are able to verify the underestimation effect of "tariff averaging". In contrast, "false competition" causes overestimation of trade and welfare effects when higher level of data aggregation is used in the simulations. False competition arises in such situations when competition for a particular subsector does not initially exist between two exporting countries, but this subsector can be aggre-gated with others in which competition actually exists. Hence, this situation leads to wrongly applied weights, and results in false substitution effects, which causes overestimation of results. The estimation of AVEs of NTBs at higher data aggregation levels also reduces the variation across sectors, and commonly leads to higher trade and welfare results. However, the contribution of tariffs to the deviation of results across versions is generally higher than the contribution of NTBs. Hence, based on our simulation results, we exhibit that aggregation of tariffs is more important than the NTBs. This dissertation concludes that neither the impact of aggregation bias nor the importance of NTBs in the evaluation of RTAs on trade policy analysis is negligible. There are considerable differences across simula-tion results depending on the data aggregation level used. The differences in results occur both in the estima-tion of trade costs of NTBs and also in the policy simulation results on the GTAP level. Hence, the selection of data aggregation level can be critical for thorough analysis of trade agreements, especially for the detailed examination of policy changes at the product level. Aggregation bias cannot be entirely overcome in econo-metric estimates or in CGE analysis; however, the extent of its possible effect can be born in mind. Depend-ing on the aim of the policy analysis, the appropriate level of data disaggregation should be chosen.
Assessment of non-tariff barriers in food and agricultural trade : an empirical approach
(2015) Engelbert, Tanja; Brockmeier, Martina
Non-tariff barriers (NTBs) substantially govern and influence trade outcomes. They include a diverse range of policy and non-policy measures that directly or indirectly divert trade and are predominantly implemented on food and agricultural products. While multilateral negotiations of NTBs within the World Trade Organization (WTO) are a slow process, countries are more confident in accelerating the reduction and regulation of NTBs within free trade agreements (FTAs). Thus, considering NTBs might be of importance in analyzing potential effects of FTAs. This cumulative dissertation includes six articles addressing current research questions in agricultural economics on the identification of NTBs and their effects on trade and the evaluation of FTAs that explicitly consider NTBs. In all empirical analyses, the focus is on the agro-food sector. The first two articles serve as the foundation for policy analysis. The following articles draw on a two-step empirical approach to thoroughly assess regional trade liberalization by integrating econometric results from the theory-consistent gravity model into the computational general equilibrium (CGE) model Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) given a perfect match of data. The empirical analyses illustrate and reaffirm the high relevance of NTBs in the agro-food sector that by far exceeds tariffs. The use of different specifications of the gravity model and alternative identification strategies supports the stability of results. The joint econometric-CGE approach offers an appropriate and comprehensive framework for analyzing the effects of the reduction of NTBs in the process of economic integration. Extending the CGE model and augmenting the database with econometrically estimated parameters increase the quality and confidence of CGE-based assessments of deep FTAs. The reliability of the results is further increased by considering the most disaggregated level of data. Future research analyses might apply even more disaggregated data and rely on direct measures of NTBs by employing information from newly emerging databases on NTBs. To conduct CGE policy analyses, theory-consistent aggregation methods could be applied to obtain ad-valorem equivalents (AVEs) of NTBs at the CGE sector level. The composite-method approach that was selected for this thesis could be transferred to other case studies of regional trade liberalization. In addition, the method could be used to construct a detailed database of AVEs of NTBs for the CGE framework. This would enable one to conduct reliable and precise plurilateral and multilateral liberalization scenarios by considering NTBs.
Außerlandwirtschaftliche Diversifikation im Transformationsprozess. Diversifikationsentscheidungen und -strategien ländlicher Haushalte in Slowenien und Mazedonien
(2005) Möllers, Judith; Heidhues, Franz
Non-farm rural diversification is gaining prominence in the debate on rural development since the end of the 1990s. The expansion of non-farm employment and the diversification of incomes are important policy objectives because they offer a solution to the employment and structural problems of a shrinking agricultural sector. Development policies focusing on the rural non-farm sector aim at offering employment options and reducing urban migration. They can contribute to poverty reduction, economic growth and a more equal income distribution. This research is based on a household survey including 240 randomly selected rural households in Slovenia and Macedonia. Since empirically based insights on diversification dynamics in transition countries are hardly available, the objective of this research is to contribute to filling this gap. The analysis focuses on diversification strategies and determinants of the decision-making process of rural people in regard to non-farm employment. The methodology combines an inductive and deductive approach with qualitative and quantitative components. For the statistical analysis primarily logistic regression models are applied. The results show that rural households in the research area are highly dependent of non-farm incomes. As expected the poverty risk between the two countries differs: Rural household incomes in Macedonia are less equally distributed. Decomposed Gini-coefficients based on non-farm incomes point at their positive effect on the income distribution. The analysis of diversification strategies indicates that coping strategies as well as risk-minimising strategies prevail. Accumulation strategies, which point at demand-pull dynamics and entrepreneurship, are less common. Attitudes towards agriculture seem to influence diversification decisions in particular. While attitudes towards non-farm activities are predominantly positive, they vary towards agriculture. Negative attitudes towards agriculture are wide-spread among the younger generation. In the age group from 16 to 25 years the proportion of negative attitudes is high in both countries, but the share in Macedonia with 50% is twice as high as in Slovenia. Important constraints of diversification in Macedonia are the non-farm labour market, low wages, insecurity and late wage payments. In both countries capital and credit availability are named as the most important reasons for not starting a business in the non-farm sector. The pressure to adapt income strategies is lower in Slovenia in general. When looking at individual employment strategies it becomes apparent that in both countries there is a declining trend of agricultural and combined employment while non-farm employment alone is increasing. In Slovenia the high level of diversification at the household level is stabilising while the structural problems in the agricultural sector persist. In contrast, the level of diversification in Macedonia is expected to further increase even though the willingness to give up agricultural activities altogether is significantly higher than in Slovenia. A promotion of the rural non-farm sector is an important policy objective as non-farm employment has a positive impact on rural incomes, particularly in poorer households. The effect of non-farm incomes on the income distribution is positive. This underlines the importance of the non-farm sector as an essential component of a poverty-oriented rural development policy. In the long term rural development policies should aim at overcoming the unfavourable small-scale agricultural structure which is the main cause of distress-pushed diversification ? particularly if full-time employment in the non-farm sector is not available. For this it is essential to support education and knowledge-building, and to offer expert advice. The intention should be to enhance entrepreneurship, creativity and the willingness and ability to take economic risks. Furthermore, the success of any effort to improve rural development policies depends on locally developed strategies, since the heterogeneity of the non-farm sector calls for decentralised political concepts. With these prerequisites the non-farm sector will be able to absorb labour released from agriculture, and the necessary structural adjustment of the agricultural sector can take place.
Can genetic engineering for the poor pay off? : an ex-ante evaluation of Golden Rice in India
(2006) Qaim, Matin; Sachdev, H. P. S.; Stein, Alexander J.
Genetic engineering (GE) in agriculture is a controversial topic in science and society at large. While some oppose genetically modified crops as proxy of an agricultural system they consider unsustainable and inequitable, the question remains whether GE can benefit the poor within the existing system and what needs to be done to deliver these benefits? Golden Rice has been genetically engineered to produce provitamin A. The technology is still in the testing phase, but, once released, it is expected to address one consequence of poverty ? vitamin A deficiency (VAD) ? and its health implications. Current interventions to combat VAD rely mainly on pharmaceutical supplementation, which is costly in the long run and only partially successful. We develop a methodology for ex-ante evaluation, taking into account the whole sequence of effects between the cultivation of the crop and its ultimate health impacts. In doing so we build on a comprehensive, nationally representative data set of household food consumption in India. Using a refined disability-adjusted life year (DALY) framework and detailed health data, this study shows for India that under optimistic assumptions this country?s annual burden of VAD of 2.3 million DALYs lost can be reduced by 59.4% hence 1.4 million healthy life years could be saved each year if Golden Rice would be consumed widely. In a low impact scenario, where Golden Rice is consumed less frequently and produces less provitamin A, the burden of VAD could be reduced by 8.8%. However, in both scenarios the cost per DALY saved through Golden Rice (US$ 3.06-19.40) is lower than the cost of current supplementation efforts, and it outperforms international cost-effectiveness thresholds. Golden Rice should therefore be considered seriously as a complementary intervention to fight VAD in rice-eating populations in the medium term.

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