Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (bis 2010)

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Airbus - ein gelungenes Beispiel für beschäftigungsorientierte Industriepolitik?
(2000) Hepperle, Guntram R. M.
Spätestens seit dem offiziellen Verkaufsstart des A3XX am 23.6.2000 ist "der Airbus" wieder in aller Munde. Am selben Tag wurde die Überführung des Konsortiums in eine eigenständige Aktiengesellschaft nach französischem Recht bekanntgegeben. Zusammen mit der Fusion drei der vier Airbus-Mutter-Unternehmen (Aerospatiale Matra,Casa und DASA) zum neuen europäischen Luft- und Raumfahrtunternehmen EADS und dem Börsengang am 1O.7.2llllll ist eine Entwicklung zum vorläufigen Abschluß gekommen, die in den 60er Jahren begann. Ziel war es damals gewesen, den Rückstand Europas gegenüber den USA im zivilen Großflugzeugbau aufzuholen. Es sollte die vermutete technologische Lücke geschlossen werden. Die Luftfahrtindustrie wurde als strategische Zukunftsbranche betrachtet: zum einen wegen der militärischen Relevanz, zum anderen wegen dem Rückstand gegenüber den USA. Nicht zuletzt erhoffte man sich die Schaffung von Arbeitsplätzen in einem zukunftsorientierten Bereich, ein Anliegen, das seit den 80er und 90er Jahren des vergangeneu Jahrhunderts auf Grund der verschärften Arbeitsmarktprobleme in Europa an Bedeutung hinzugewonnen hat. Aus diesen Grunden wurden erhebliche öffentliche Mittel in die Unterstützung der Entwicklung neuer Flugzeuge investiert. Das Airbus-Projekt wurde zu einem der größten Subventionsempfänger in Europa. Aus theoretischer Sicht wurde der Airbus zu einem klassischen Fall vertikaler (das heißt, sektoraler, auf einzelne Branchen bezogener) Industriepolitik, zu deren Rechtfertigung Elemente der Theorie der Strategischen Handelspolitik herangezogen wurden. Er eignet sich deshalb besonders gut für eine an industriepolitischen Fragestellungen interessierten Untersuchung. Aus dem Gesagten ergibt sich die Vergebensweise der vorliegenden Untersuchung. Im ersten Schritt ist die historische Entwicklung des Airbus nachzuzeichnen. Im zweiten Schritt wird die Praxis der theoretischen Überprüfung unterzogen: Durch welche Charakteristika ist die Produktion ziviler Großraumflugzeuge gekennzeichnet? Welche staatlichen Handlungsoptionen lassen sich daraus vor dem Hintergrund der Theorie der strategischen Handelspolitik ableiten? Welche Ergebnisse empirischer Studien liegen vor Danach sind die Beschäftigungswirkungen zu analysieren. Im letzten Abschnitt werden die Ergebnisse zusammengefasst.
Arbeitslosigkeit und Lohnspreizung : empirische Befunde zur Arbeitsmarktsituation gering Qualifizierter in Deutschland
(2007) Rukwid, Ralf
In den Industriestaaten stehen die weniger qualifizierten Arbeitskräfte derzeit unter einem erheblichen Anpassungsdruck. Die Nachfragestruktur auf dem Arbeitsmarkt hat sich in den letzten Jahrzehnten zuungunsten der formal Ungelernten verschoben, wobei als die Hauptursachen dieser Entwicklung die Globalisierung sowie ein qualifikationsverzerrter technischer Fortschritt gelten. Ziel dieses Diskussionspapiers ist eine detaillierte Analyse der Arbeitsmarktsituation gering Qualifizierter in Deutschland. Es wird gezeigt, dass sich die Beschäftigungschancen für Erwerbspersonen ohne abgeschlossene Berufsausbildung seit Mitte der 1970er Jahre systematisch und gegenüber den höher Qualifizierten überproportional verschlechtert haben. Dabei übertrifft die aktuelle gruppenspezifische Arbeitslosenquote der Ungelernten in Deutschland diejenige fast aller anderen OECD-Staaten. Dies wird häufig als Beleg für eine im Ländervergleich außerordentliche Problemlage gewertet und mit inflexiblen Lohnstrukturen in direkten Zusammenhang gebracht. Dieser Beitrag soll mit Hilfe einer empirischen Analyse von deutschen, amerikanischen und britischen Lohndaten auf Basis des Cross National Equivalent File (CNEF) Aufschlüsse über den tatsächlichen Grad der Flexibilität der deutschen Lohnstruktur geben. Hierbei werden landesspezifische Entwicklungstendenzen bei der Lohnverteilung beschrieben und der jeweilige Umfang an Lohnspreizung geschätzt. Zudem wird mittels Berechnung von Subgruppendisparitäten und der Durchführung von Dekompositionsverfahren der Zusammenhang zwischen Lohnungleichheit und formaler Qualifikation untersucht. Vor dem Hintergrund dieser Analyseergebnisse sowie alternativer Studien erfolgt schließlich eine Einordnung der verschiedenen Politikansätze zur Verbesserung der Beschäftigungssituation gering Qualifizierter. Im Mittelpunkt der wirtschaftspolitischen Diskussion in Deutschland stehen neben Qualifizierungsstrategien vor allem Vorschläge einer stärkeren Lohndifferenzierung speziell im unteren Einkommensbereich. Eine simple monokausale Beziehung zwischen Lohnspreizung und der Intensität der Beschäftigungsprobleme gering qualifizierter Arbeitskräfte lässt sich anhand der in diesem Beitrag präsentierten empirischen Befunde allerdings nicht nachweisen.
Asset prices, inflation and monetary control : re-inventing money as a policy tool
(2010) Spahn, Peter
Low inflation on goods markets provides no reliable precondition for asset-market stability; it might even promote the emergence of bubbles because interest rates and risk premia appear to be low. A further factor driving asset demand is easy availability of credit, which in turn roots in the banking system operating in a regime of endogenous central-bank money. A comparison of Bundesbank and ECB policies suggests that credit growth can be controlled more efficiently if rising interest rates are accompanied by some liquidity squeeze that supports the spillover of a monetary restriction to capital markets. The announcement effect of a central bank Charter including the goal of financial-market stability helps to deter private agents from excessive asset trading.
Die Aussenhandelspolitik der EU gegenüber China: "China-Bashing" ist keine rationale Basis für Politik
(2007) Belke, Ansgar; Spies, Julia
Mit der Verabschiedung einer handelspolitischen Strategie gegenüber China Ende Oktober 2006 richtet sich die Europäische Union (EU) in einem veränderten globalen Wettbewerbsumfeld neu aus. Erstmals wird mit dem Einsatz von Schutzmaßnahmen gedroht, sollte China die multilateralen Vereinbarungen der Welthandelsorganisation (World Trade Organization ? WTO) nicht vollständig umsetzen. Doch hat auch die EU ihre ?Hausaufgaben? in den vergangenen Jahren nicht immer erledigt. Auf die Einfuhrschwemme von Textilien und Bekleidung Anfang 2005 reagierte sie durch die Erhebung neuer Quoten. In diesem Papier argumentieren wir, dass nur eine reziproke Marktöffnung eine stabile Partnerschaft bedingt, bei der beide Seiten vom ohnehin nicht aufzuhaltenden Vormarsch Chinas profitieren können.
Auswirkungen von Steueränderungen im Bereich Entfernungspauschale und Werbungskosten : ein Mikrosimulationsmodell
(2006) Wagenhals, Gerhard; Buck, Jürgen
To overcome a lack of information in official income tax statistcs, we developed a statistical matching approach for adding additional data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) to the most recent official income tax statistics data as of 2002. Based on a representative dataset of more than 35000 original tax report extracts, we implemented a microsimulation model that calculates the fiscal impact of changes in the area of tax deductible income related expenses, in particular tax deductible expenses for traveling from home to work and the lump sum deductible for all income related expenses. The new model allows a more detailed simulation of the fiscal impact of changes in the German income tax law than previously possible.
Bargained wages in decentralized wage-setting regimes
(2006) Heinbach, Wolf Dieter
Collective wage agreements still play an important role in the German wage bargaining system. However, there is a critical debate in Germany whether collective agreements deliver the flexibility needed by firms to adjust to the needs of international competition and technological change. In recent years, the social partners in some industries have responded to this possible lack of flexibility by introducing so called opening clauses into their collective bargaining agreements. These allow firms to deviate from their collective agreement under certain conditions. The aim of this paper is to empirically analyze the prevalence of opening clauses in the German manufacturing sector and their impact on the wage structure. To provide a basis for the empirical analyses, a survey on the existence and intensity of opening clauses in central collective agreements has been conducted. Thereby, these sectoral data about opening clauses are exactly combined with those from the German Structure of Earnings Survey 1995 and 2001, a linked employer-employee dataset from German official statistics. The results show the number of collective bargaining agreements containing opening clauses increasing remarkably since 1991. Furthermore, the implementation of opening clauses into collective contracts creates significant effects on wages.
Beschäftigungspolitik in Österreich
(1999) Walterskirchen, Ewald
Beschäftigungswirkungen der Internationalisierung : eine Studie aus- und einfließender Direktinvestitionen der Metall- und Elektroindustrie im Raum Stuttgart
(1998) Holwegler, Bernhard; Trautwein, Hans-Michael
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Better than their reputation : a case for mail surveys in contingent valuation
(2008) Sinphurmsukskul, Nopasom; Sangkapitux, Chapika; Neef, Andreas; Kitchaicharoen, Jirawan; Frör, Oliver; Ekasingh, Benchaphun; Ahlheim, Michael
Though contingent valuation is the dominant technique for the valuation of public projects, especially in the environmental sector, the high costs of contingent valuation surveys prevent the use of this method for the assessment of relatively small projects. The reason for this cost problem is that typically only contingent valuation studies which are based on face-to-face interviews are accepted as leading to valid results. Especially in countries with high wages face-to-face surveys are extremely costly considering that for a valid contingent valuation study a minimum of 1,000 completed face-to-face interviews is required. In this paper we try a rehabilitation of mail surveys as low-budget substitutes for costly face-to-face surveys. Based on an empirical contingent valuation study in Northern Thailand we show that the validity of mail surveys can be improved significantly if so-called citizen expert groups are employed for a thorough survey design.
Can international migration ever be made a Pareto improvement?
(2009) Felbermayr, Gabriel; Kohler, Wilhelm
We argue that compensating losers is more difficult for immigration than for trade and capital movements. While a tax-cum-subsidy mechanism allows the government to turn the gains from trade into a Pareto improvement, the same is not true for the so-called immigration surplus, if the redistributive mechanism is not allowed to discriminate against migrants. We discuss policy conclusions to be drawn from this fundamental asymmetry between migration and other forms of globalization.
Capital shortage unemployment in Germany and the UK
(1998) Arestis, Philip; Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, Iris; Hagemann, Harald
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Competition between airports with an application to the state of Baden-Württemberg
(2006) Strobach, Daniel
Classical theories of competition in two-dimensional space mainly deal with the questions of where firms locate in the plane and what shape their market areas willconsequently adopt. Out of that develops the construct of catchment areas. As part of long-term infrastructure equipment, an airport can not change location. Once it is chosen and operational, an airport has to compete for passengers and market share on basis of its prevailing catchment areas. Passenger choice determines the shape of an airport?s market and these markets, other than in the presented theories, commonly overlap. On the basis of passengers? selection criterions, the valuation of an airport?s attraction takes place. The developed procedure is applied to the state of Baden-Württemberg. It paints a picture of airport competition in the German Southwest. In order to get a sharper image, the formed catchment areas are subdivided into zones of different competition intensity.
Deflationary vs. inflationary expectations : a new-Keynesian perspective with heterogeneous agents and monetary believes
(2009) Sauter, Oliver; Geiger, Felix
We expand a standard New-Keynesian model by allowing for a special role of money in the inflation and expectations building process. Motivated by the two-pillar Phillips curve, we introduce heterogeneous expectations. Thereby a fraction of agents forms inflation expectations by observing trend money growth. We show that in the presence of these monetary believers, contractive shocks to the economy produce smoother dynamics for inflation and output. We also find that monetary policy should follow a conventional Taylor rule with contemporaneous inflation and output data, if it is uncertain about the fraction of monetary believers.
Degree of Openness and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Re-Evaluation with Value-Added Based Openness Measures
(2005) Wang, Lars; Belke, Ansgar
The concept of trade openness is broadly applied as a potential predictor in numerous empirical studies, despite the fact that no commonly accepted approach of measuring openness has been developed. The most widely applied (?traditional?) openness indices are not able to accurately calculate the degree of trade openness. Many openness concepts try to adjust the traditional measures of openness with aim to increase the quality of assessment, but most of these attempts show a poor correlation with the traditional concept. This might indicate that the alternative approaches capture different aspects of trade openness. This study presents the development of innovative value-added based (?actual?) measures of openness towards international and bilateral trade, respectively. They are based on a multi-regional input-output analysis of income effects due to trade. In clear contrast to the mainstream view, the actual openness concept corrects the traditional concept by expressing trade in value-added terms instead of gross terms. Traditional openness measures do not take the international redistribution of income generated by trade into account. This means, for example, that the export ratio overstates the potency of a country to build a surplus in output at home because imported intermediate commodities that are employed in the process of production of exported commodities generate income abroad. The import ratio which expresses imports as a share of the gross domestic product overstates the dependency on imports since residents have to spend a lower portion of their income to purchase imports from abroad. Imports are partly produced with intermediate commodities delivered by the country that creates income for its production factors. The innovative actual openness concept is able to reflect the different structures of production among countries since the value-added created by trade is forecasted based on a sound theory of production. This makes it possible to quantify the effects of the interactions between industries within an economy. Open economies consist of more firms that import intermediate of final commodities for the purpose of their re-export than closed economies. These firms, which redistribute final commodities or process the finishing of imported intermediate commodities, employ less domestic factors of production and thus contribute less to national income than other firms which produce exports primarily with national intermediate commodities in all processing stages. This means that the more open economies are, the smaller the proportion of domestic production factors in the production process of exports is and the additional income earned from the selling of exports is again transferred abroad by means of imported intermediate commodities employed in exports. There are only a limited number of degrees of trade openness data bases based on concepts of openness measurement that differ to the traditional approach. They only include data for a few countries, which mainly consist of industrialized economies, and/or only for a small number of years. Consequently, the outcome of empirical tests of potential associations between the degree of openness and other variables might be, in some cases, hampered. In clear contrast to this, the new data base of the degrees of openness to international trade based on the actual openness concept consists of roughly 20,000 entries. The data base represents the degrees of trade openness of 66 countries, which range from developing to highly industrialized economies, for a period of 14 years (1989 to 2002). This feature of the study is a strong contribution to economic research since it makes the improved adequacy in the indication of trade openness available to many different empirical analyses. The empirical re-evaluation of the association between the degree of openness and the choice of exchange rate regimes in this contribution is based on regression analysis which contains up to 525 observations of 54 countries between the years 1989 and 2000. The test results indicate a positive and statistically significant correlation between trade openness and the likelihood of choosing a fixed exchange rate regime. This is clearly in line with the findings of the mainstream in the empirical research. Subsequently, the analysis of the relationship between the degree of trade openness and the selection of exchange rate regimes is extended to adhere to the ongoing debate in economic research as to when the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), which became member countries of the Economic and Monetary Union in May 1, 2004, are able to adopt the euro as their national currency. The results of a computable general equilibrium analysis suggest that if the Central and Eastern European countries meet the Maastricht criteria and the non-devaluation condition in the Exchange Rate Mechanism II, they could gain net benefits from the abolishment of their national currencies in the year 2008.
Dienstleistungen: Motor für Wachstum und Beschäftigung in Deutschland?
(1999) Krämer, Hagen
Der Beitrag beschäftigt sich mit der Bedeutung, die die unternehmensbezogenen Dienstleistungen für die Wirtschaft und die Beschäftigung in Deutschland haben. Dienstleistungsunternehmen, die Vorleistungen für andere Unternehmen erstellen, zeichneten sich bereits in der Vergangenheit durch eine hohe Dynamik aus. Statistisch zugeordnet werden die unternehmensbezogenen Dienstleistungen dem Sektor Sonstige Dienstleistungsunternehmen, über den kaum disaggregierte Daten vorliegen. In dieser Arbeit wird das vorhandene Material aufbereitet und dargestellt. Außerdem werden die Entwicklungsperspektiven der Branchen der Sonstigen Dienstleistungen diskutiert. Entscheidende Gründe, die zum generellen Bedeutungsgewinn von Dienstleistungen beitragen werden, sind die erwarteten Veränderungen auf der Nachfrage- und der Angebotsseite. Dazu gehören unter anderem die Veränderungen der Produktions- und Vorleistungsstrukturen, die zunehmende Produktkomplexität, veränderte Kundenwünsche und der Trend zur Globalisierung. Hinzu kommen der technische Fortschritt im Bereich der Informationsund Kommunikationstechnologien und die weiteren Verbesserungen der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Rahmenbedingungen. Diese Faktoren lassen einen kräftigen Nachfrageschub zugunsten der unternehmensbezogenen Dienstleistungen erwarten und gestalten insbesondere die Perspektiven für unternehmensbezogenen Dienstleistungen in Deutschland weiterhin positiv.
Digitale Musik - Eine industrieökonomische Analyse der Musikindustrie
(2006) Raschka, Oliver D.; Schwalbe, Ulrich
This is a book about the competition in the (German) music industry. It examines the issues important to the future of the music business and especially the music industry. An in-depth study of the demand und supply side shows the current problems and issues for the record companies. First, the stability of cooperative behavior in file sharing networks. Second, the construction of optimal pricing schemes in conjunction with the optimal number of different versions of a music song in the presence of unauthorized file sharing. For the solution of these problems, the book contains two new (game) theoretic models. The models provide optimal behavior strategies for consumers and record companies as well. The results will be supported by empirical evidence. The organization of the book is as follows: Chapter 1: Introduction. Chapter 2: Product innovations and market structure in the history of the (global) music industry. Chapter 3: Characteristics and marketability of digital information goods. Chapter 4: Market analysis and competition behavior in the (German) music industry. Chapter 5: A simple game theoretic model of cooperation in peer-to-peer (p2p) file sharing networks. An evolutionary approach. Chapter 6: Pricing schemes, product quality and digital rights management in the presence of illegal copying. Chapter 7: Summary. Literature.
Does downward nominal wage rigidity dampen wage increases?
(2010) Beißinger, Thomas; Stüber, Heiko
Focusing on the compression of wage cuts, many empirical studies find a high degree of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR). However, the resulting macroeconomic effects seem to be surprisingly weak. This contradiction can be explained within an intertemporal framework in which DNWR not only prevents nominal wage cuts but also induces firms to compress wage increases. We analyze whether a compression of wage increases occurs when DNWR is binding by applying Unconditional Quantile Regression and Seemingly Unrelated Regression to a data set comprising more than 169 million wage changes. We find evidence for a compression of wage increases and only very small effects of DNWR on average real wage growth. The results indicate that DNWR does not provide a strong argument against low inflation targets.
Does immigration boost per capita income?
(2008) Sala, Davide; Felbermayr, Gabriel J.; Hiller, Sanne
Using a cross-section of countries, we adapt Frankel and Romer's (1999) IV strategy to international labor mobility. Controlling for institutional quality, trade, and financial openness, we establish a robust and non-negative causal effect of immigration on real percapita income.
Downward nominal wage rigidity in Europe : an analysis of European micro data from the ECHP 1994-2001
(2006) Knoppik, Christoph; Beißinger, Thomas
This paper substantially extends the limited available evidence on existence and extent of downward nominal wage rigidity in the European Union and the Euro Area. For this purpose we develop an econometric multi-country model based on Kahn?s (1997) histogram-location approach and apply it to employee micro data from the European Community Household Panel (ECHP) for twelve of the EU?s current member states. Our estimates for the degree of downward nominal wage rigidity on the national as well as the EU-wide level point to marked downward nominal wage rigidity within the European Union.
Dynamik von Armut in Deutschland - Ergebnisse mikroökonometrischer Analysen
(2006) Moll, Sebastian; Wagenhals, Gerhard
While the focus of traditional poverty research is on a cross-sectional perspective, this empirical study is concerned with the individual dynamics of poverty in Germany. Based on longitudinal data from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), several aspects like the duration of poverty or the extent of chronic poverty are adressed. The organization of the book is as follows: After a short introduction in Chapter 1, necessary basics for the empirical analysis of poverty are discussed in Chapter 2. Chapter 3 deals with the measurement of chronic poverty over a fixed period of time. Microeconometric methods are adopted for a differenciated analysis of chronic poverty. In Chapter 4 a spell-based approach is applied to estimate poverty exit and re-entry rates. Finally, all important results are summarized in Chapter 5.

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