Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre

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An equilibrium model of 'global imbalances' revisited
(2011) Körner, Finn Marten
?Global imbalances? are almost universally regarded as a disequilibrium phenomenon. Caballero, Farhi, and Gourinchas (2008) challenge this notion with their dynamic general equilibrium model of global imbalances. The authors conclude that current account deficit nations need not worry about long-lasting deficits as long as the model is in equilibrium. The joint model in this paper combines the two model extensions for exchange rates and FDI which are disjunct in the original model. An analytical solution to the new joint model is neither as straightforward as for the separate models nor can previous results from calibrated simulation be confirmed without restriction. The model is highly dependent on parameter assumptions: A variation of calibrated parameters highlights the prime impact of investment costs previously assumed away. Sustainable equilibrium paths for global imbalances are much narrower in updated simulations than previously predicted. Policy recommendations on the sustainability of international debt holdings therefore need to be a lot more cautious.
Measuring social capital and innovation in poor agricultural communities : the case of Cháparra, Peru
(2011) Arata, Atilio; Hartmann, Dominik
In the last decades substantive advance has been made in the measurement and understanding of frontier innovation in highly industrialized settings. However, little research focused on the process of learning and the introduction of novelties in smallholder farming of poor agricultural communities. Considering that 1.5 billion people in developing countries live in such smallholder households this is an essential shortcoming. In addressing three crucial questions about the measurement and promotion of endogenous local development this paper contributes to close this research gap. The three questions are: a) how can we measure social capital and innovation in poor agricultural communities, b) what is the impact of external agents on local structures and c) what are the relations between the social capital and the innovative performance of the farmer. In a first step a comprehensive questionnaire with 89 questions on diverse dimensions of social capital and innovation has been elaborated and applied to the agricultural valley of Cháparra in the South of Peru. The results allow for an indepth analysis of the capabilities, network position and innovative behavior of the farmers. In a second step, we apply social network analysis techniques to analyze the role and position of the relevant actors in the local as well as in the external technical information networks with a special focus on the influence of an external NGO. The analysis reveals a deep structural impact of the NGO and significant correlations between the network position of the farmers and their innovative performance. Three crucial issues for research on smallholder innovation are identified. First, diverse dimensions of social capital and innovation have to be differentiated when studying endogenous development. Second, it has to be assessed to which degree the modification of the existing social structures by external agents can be harmful or beneficial. Third, social network analysis can help us to gain a better understanding of the complex relations between social capital and innovation and how these can contribute to foster sustainable development projects.
R&D and knowledge dynamics in university-industry relationships in biotech and pharmaceuticals : an agent-based model
(2011) Pyka, Andreas; Scholz, Ramon; Triulzi, Giorgio
In the last two decades, University-Industry Relationships have played an outstanding role in shaping innovation activities in Biotechnology and Pharmaceuticals. Despite the growing importance and the considerable scope of these relationships, there still is an intensive and open debate on their short and long term effects on the research system in life sciences. So far, the extensive literature on this topic has not been able to provide a widely accepted answer. This work introduces a new way to analyse University-Industry Relationships (UIRs) which makes use of an agent-based simulation model. With the help of simulation experiments and the comparison of different scenario results, new insights on the effects of these relationships on the innovativeness of the research system can be gained. In particular, focusing on knowledge interactions among heterogeneous actors, we show that: (i) universities tend to shift from a basic to an applied research orientation as a consequence of relationships with industry, (ii) universities? innovative capabilities benefit from industry financial resources but not so much from cognitive resources of the companies, (iii) biotech companies? innovative capabilities largely benefit from the knowledge interaction with universities and (iv) adequate policies in terms of public basic research funding can contrast the negative effects of UIRs on university research orientation.
Die Entwicklung des Lebensstandards im Dritten Reich : eine glücksökonomische Perspektive
(2011) Wahl, Fabian
The goal of this paper is to provide an explanation for the remarkable difference in the contemporary Germans positive self-assessment of their living conditions and the development of the most important economic welfare indicators (like GDP or consumption per capita) during the Third Reich. To explain this discrepancy, findings of the new research field of happiness economics are applied to the peacetime of the Third Reich to analyze the development of the standard of living in this period. First, the theory of adaption and aspiration is used to explain the growing satisfaction of the Germans after the Great Depression. In the second step, based on current life satisfaction studies, the development of the most important economic determinants of happiness during the 1930s is examined.
Inter-firm R&D networks in the global pharmaceutical biotechnology industry during 1985?1998 : a conceptual and empirical analysis
(2011) Krogmann, Yin; Schwalbe, Ulrich
This paper analyses a large database on inter-firm R&D cooperation formed in the pharmaceutical biotechnology industry during the period 1985?1998. The results indicate that network size largely grows, whereas the density of the network declines during the periods. In the network analysis that emphasizes individual structural positions, the empirical results show that small biotechnological companies had a crucial bridging role for the large pharmaceutical firms in the second half of the 1980s. In the 1990s, the bridge role of biotechnology companies became less important and established pharmaceutical companies developed into dominant start players with many collaborators while holding central roles in the research network. The current analysis also shows that degree-based and betweenness-based network centralization are both low implying that the overall positional advantages are relatively equally distributed in the inter-firm R&D network of the pharmaceutical biotechnology industry.
On collusive behavior - models of cartel formation, organizational structure, and destabilization
(2011) Fischer, Julia; Schwalbe, Ulrich
This dissertation contributes to the theoretical literature on cartel formation, organizational structure, and destabilization in Cournot competitive markets. Cartel formation in Cournot competitive markets may take place as a sequential process even if the merger paradox applies. This conclusion was reached after giving up the assumption of symmetric information in cartel formation processes: it is assumed that outside firms are not informed about new cartel agreements and face a time lag by adjusting to changing behavior of some of the market participants. Furthermore, an extension to the standard cartel stability models is presented to capture the influence of communication and organizational structure in a cartel by modeling cartels as social networks. Despite the fact that communication in cartels is costly because contacts between members might be detected by antitrust authorities, it is shown that intensive contacts are possibly stabilizing within a cartel. Both aspects, the costs and benefits of communication in cartels, contribute to the players' valuation of collusion and therefore change cartel stability conditions. Additionally, this model accounts for the influence of leniency programs and fines. A theoretical explanation is given for differences between explicit and tacit collusion on the basis of this network model. Additionally, this dissertation examines whether collusive behavior might be deterred in vertical structures if dominant firms are allowed to apply specific discount schemes. It is shown that the profit maximizing behavior of a monopolistic upstream firm might lead to the deterrence of collusive behavior of downstream firms if the upstream firm is allowed to implement all-units discount schemes. All-units discounts, despite the fact that they are sometimes considered anticompetitive, possess welfare improving effects that are not generally shared by other pricing schemes.
Quantitative Clusteridentifikation auf Ebene der deutschen Stadt- und Landkreise (1999 - 2008)
(2011) Rukwid, Ralf; Christ, Julian P.
Die detaillierte Untersuchung von Unternehmensagglomerationen bzw. der räumlichen Ballung von Produktionsaktivitäten war ein wesentliches Analyseziel des Forschungsprojekts ?Die Bedeutung von Innovationsclustern, sektoralen und regionalen Innovationssystemen zur Stärkung der globalen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der baden-württembergischen Wirtschaft?. In diesem Zusammenhang entstand eine Datenbank mit Cluster-Messwerten, die flächendeckend für ganz Deutschland eine präzise Verortung von Produktionsclustern auf Ebene der Stadt- und Landkreise erlaubt. Mit Hilfe eines auf die Arbeiten von Litzenberger und Sternberg zurückgehenden Cluster-Indexes (CI) wurde für jeden deutschen Kreis im Zeitraum von 1999 bis 2008 das entsprechende Cluster-Niveau bestimmt. Solche Cluster-Index-Werte liegen jeweils für die klassischen Sektoren Landwirtschaft, Verarbeitendes Gewerbe und Dienstleistungen, für die über 200 Dreisteller-Wirtschaftszweige der WZ2003 bzw. WZ93 sowie für ausgesuchte Branchenaggregate der Dreisteller-Wirtschaftszweige, sogenannte Prognos Zukunftsfelder, vor. Sämtliche Cluster-Messwerte wurden tabellarisch aufbereitet und in einen erweiterten Datenanhang integriert. Dieses Arbeitspapier beschreibt die berechneten Clusterdaten inklusive der zugrundeliegenden Ausgangsdaten und fasst die methodischen Grundlagen der durchgeführten quantitativen Clusteridentifikation zusammen.
A direct test of socially desirable responding in contingent valuation interviews
(2011) Börger, Tobias
Earnings shocks and tax-motivated income-shifting : evidence from European multinationals
(2011) Riedel, Nadine; Dharmapala, Dhammika
This paper presents a new approach to estimating the existence and magnitude of taxmotivated income shifting within multinational corporations. Existing studies of income shifting use changes in corporate tax rates as a source of identification. In contrast, this paper exploits exogenous earnings shocks at the parent firm and investigates how these shocks propagate across low-tax and high-tax multinational subsidiaries. This approach is implemented using a large panel of European multinational affiliates over the period 1995-2005. The central result is that parents? positive earnings shocks are associated with a significantly positive increase in pretax profits at low-tax affiliates, relative to the effect on the pretax profits of high-tax affiliates. The result is robust to controlling for various other differences between low-tax and high-tax affiliates and for country-pair-year fixed effects. Additional tests suggest that the estimated effect is attributable primarily to the strategic use of debt across affiliates. The magnitude of income shifting estimated using this approach is substantial, but somewhat smaller than that found in the previous literature.
Die Währungskrisenunion : die Euro-Verschuldung der Nationalstaaten als Schwachstelle der EWU
(2011) Spahn, Peter
Die Staatsschuldenkrise einiger Länder in der EWU ist letztlich doch eine Währungskrise. Nur im gemeinsamen Währungsraum war es überhaupt möglich, die Schuldaufnahme stark auszuweiten. Andererseits treten bei Zweifeln an der finanziellen Solidität von Schuldnerstaaten kumulative Instabilitätsprobleme auf, die in der internationalen Geldwirtschaft aus der Konstellation "Verschuldung in fremder Währung" bekannt sind. Die regulär nicht vorgesehene Kurspflege nationaler Schuldtitel seitens der EZB und endogene Liquiditätsengpässe im nationalen Banksystem bei einem massiven Umstieg der Anleger in Papiere mit besserer Reputation erzeugen eine durchaus rationale Insolvenzerwartung. Ironischerweise galt die Konstellation einer alleinigen Abhängigkeit der nationalen Finanzpolitik von Kreditanbietern auf dem Euro-Finanzmarkt als erwünschtes ordnungspolitisches Disziplinierungsprinzip; sie erweist sich nun als nicht tragfähig. Die Alternative sind permanente Rettungsschirme oder Euro-Bonds. In beiden Fällen wird die währungspolitisch schwache Stellung nationaler Schuldner durch implizite Zinszahlungen und Vermögensgarantien wirtschaftlich stärkerer Länder kompensiert. Die damit verbundenen Einkommens- und Vermögensverluste sind der Preis, den exportorientierte Länder wie die Bundesrepublik für die Bewahrung des Euro zahlen müssen.
Instabiltiy, economic stagnation and the role of Islam in the North Caucasus
(2011) Dobler, Constanze
Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, the North Caucasus is known as a politically unstable region and as a melting pot for terrorism and all kinds of criminal activity, reaching from drugtrafficking and illegal arms trade to hijacking and extortion. Furthermore, the North Caucasus is one of Russia?s poorest and least developed regions. Although the role of Islam as a destabilizing factor should not be overestimated, it is a determining characteristic regarding the region?s past and current development. The paper considers specific influencing factors like the North Caucasus? geographical location, foreign influence, its Soviet past, its history of Islamization, its societal structure, its ethnic heterogeneity and the prevalent Russian institutional vacuum with a focus on Islam and its local characteristics. Then it is questioned whether sustainable socio-economic development is possible within the prevalent institutional environment and whether Islam plays a decisive role or not. It is discovered, that weak governance on the central and regional levels and the inability to implement and enforce the rule of law are responsible for the region?s socio-economic situation. The form of societal organization plays a role, too. These factors, however, are historically determined and will therefore persist, in part even in the long run.
Economic growth in the post-socialist Russian Federation after 1991 : the role of institutions
(2011) Hagemann, Harald; Dobler, Constanze
The paper emphasizes the transition in Russia and the role institutions played before and during the process. In Russia, a ?big bang? approach was applied. That is to say, transition was conducted all of a sudden, omitting important underlying reforms. This practice should function as a shock therapy. Hence, the approach should leave no other chance than an abrupt adaption to the new free-market rules. These rules would then lead to fast economic growth and development, as they did in other places. However, since Russian GDP per capita and thereby living standards deteriorated dramatically in the years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the plan did not work. At any rate, since then Russian economic indicators recovered and partly achieved their pre-1991 levels at the end of the last decade. The paper depicts Russia?s reform efforts and the subsequent developments. The close ties among the political elite, the banking sector and the old nomenklatura are demonstrated. The patrimonial system that persisted for centuries is still observable at the state level. At any rate, Russia can neither evade its historical and institutional development path nor its societal structures that are based on networks and nepotism. Russia?s systemic lack of the rule of law and therewith of secure property, the character of the Russian political system with the patriarch as the head of state and the resulting necessity of corruption and bribes inhibit the realization of its full growth potential.
Avoiding evolutionary inefficiencies in innovation networks
(2011) Pyka, Andreas
Innovation policy is in need for a rational which allows the design and evaluation of policy instruments. In economic policy traditionally the focus is on market failures and efficiency measures are used to decide whether policy should intervene and which instrument should be applied. In innovation policy this rational cannot meaningfully be applied because of the uncertain and open character of innovation processes. Uncertainty is not a market failure and cannot be repaired. Inevitably policy makers are subject to failure and their goals are to be considered as much more modest compared to the achievement of a social optimum. Instead of optimal innovation, the avoidance of evolutionary inefficiencies becomes the centrepiece of innovation policy making. Superimposed to the several sources of evolutionary inefficiencies are socalled network inefficiencies. Because of the widespread organisation of innovation in innovation networks, the network structures and dynamics give useful hints for innovation policy, where and when to intervene.
The ecological price of getting rich in a green desert : a contingent valuation study in rural Southwest China
(2012) Frör, Oliver; Börger, Tobias; Ahlheim, Michael
The cultivation of rubber trees in Xishuangbanna Prefecture in China?s Yunnan Province has triggered an unprecedented economic development but it is also associated with severe environmental problems. Rubber plantations are encroaching the indigenous rainforests at a large scale and a high speed in Xishuangbanna. Many rare plant and animal species are endangered by this development, the natural water management is disturbed and even the microclimate in this region has changed over the past years. The present study aims at an assessment of these environmental costs of the economic progress in Xishuangbanna. To this end a Contingent Valuation survey is conducted to elicit local residents? willingness to pay for a reforestation program that converts existing rubber plantations back into forest. It is shown that though local people's awareness of the environmental problems caused by increasing rubber plantation is quite high their willingness to pay in order to change things is rather low. It seems that from the perspective of local residents the economic advantages of rubber cultivation outweigh the resulting environmental threats. Another explanation of the low willingness to pay stated in this survey might be the fact that many respondents consider taxes and fees already too high in China so that they are not willing to make any further contributions to whatever purpose.
Sen meets Schumpeter : introducing structural and dynamic elements into the human capability approach
(2012) Hartmann, Dominik
This paper argues for the necessity and potential of introducing Schumpeter?s understanding of economic development as structural change into Amartya Sen?s people-oriented development as freedom approach. Sen and other authors on social choice, human development and inequality have effectively promoted ? through the United Nations Development Programme - that the expansion of human agency, well-being and capabilities are the means and ends of development (Sen, 1999). However, this approach has lead to a neglect of structural and technological aspects of economic systems such as social network dynamics, technological progress and the structural changes in the variety and balance of economic activities. Innovation driven socioeconomic change has decisive influences on the capabilities of the actors to be active agents in the development processes. For instance, the variety of economic sectors in a country and the access to information and finance networks determine occupational choices and learning opportunities. Economic diversification and social network dynamics follow evolutionary paths that can contribute to human development, but also intrinsically drive success-breeds-success mechanisms and inequality reproduction. Therefore, an agent oriented evolutionary theory of inequality and qualitative change has to take these structural features of economic development into account.
Grenzen der Bildungsexpansion? : Ausbildungsinadäquate Beschäftigung von Ausbildungs- und Hochschulabsolventen in Deutschland
(2012) Rukwid, Ralf
Der Begriff der Ausbildungsadäquanz zielt auf den Grad der Übereinstimmung zwischen den im Bildungssystem erworbenen Qualifikationen und dem Anforderungsprofil der am Arbeitsmarkt ausgeübten Tätigkeit. Im Falle einer ausbildungsinadäquaten Beschäftigung oder auch Fehlqualifikation bleibt ein bedeutender Teil der während der Ausbildungsphase angeeigneten beruflichen Fertigkeiten und Kenntnisse ungenutzt. Ausbildungsinadäquate Erwerbstätigkeit geht folglich einher mit einer suboptimalen Verwertung von Humankapital und zieht sowohl auf persönlicher als auch auf gesamtwirtschaftlicher Ebene erhebliche negative Konsequenzen nach sich. Dieser Diskussionsbeitrag? greift die Frage nach der Ausbildungs(in)adäquanz der Beschäftigung auf und untersucht diese detailiert in Hinblick auf die aktuelle Problemlage in Deutschland. Dabei werden sowohl die Erkenntnisse bisher vorhandener empirischer Studien zusammengefasst als auch eigene deskriptive Analyseresultate auf der Datengrundlage des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP)? vorgestellt. Sowohl auf Ebene der Hochschulabsolventen als auch der Absolventen der beruflichen Ausbildungsgänge deuten die Befunde auf beträchtliche Qualifikationsreserven hin. In der langfristigen Betrachtung zeigt sich zudem, dass der Anteil ausbildungsinadäquater Beschäftigungsverhältnisse unter den akademischen Fachkräften in Deutschland seit der Wiedervereinigung deutlich zugenommen hat. Bei der ausbildungsinadäquaten bzw. unterwertigen Beschäftigung handelt es sich demnach um ein am deutschen Arbeitsmarkt verbreitetes und keinesfalls zu vernachlässigendes Phänomen, das künftig stärker in das Blickfeld von Politik und Arbeitsmarktforschung rücken sollte.
Wachstums- und Investitionsdynamik in Deutschland
(2012) Hagemann, Harald; Erber, Georg
Cyclicality of real wages in the USA and Germany : new insights from wavelet Analysis
(2012) Gómez, Víctor ; Marczak, Martyna
This article provides new insights into the cyclical behavior of consumer and producer real wages in the USA and Germany. We apply two methods for the estimation of the cyclical components from the data: the approach based on the structural time series models and the ARIMA?model?based approach combined with the canonical decomposition and a band?pass filter. We examine the extracted cycles drawing on two wavelet concepts: wavelet coherence and wavelet phase angle. In contrast to the analysis in the time or frequency domains, wavelet analysis allows for the identification of possible changes in cyclical patterns over time. From the findings of our study, we can infer that the USA and Germany differ with respect to the lead?lag relationship of real wages and the business cycle. In the USA, both real wages are leading the business cycle in the entire time interval. The German consumer real wage is, on the other hand, lagging the business cycle. For the German producer real wage, the lead?lag pattern changes over time. We also find that real wages in the USA as well in Germany are procyclical or acyclical until 1980 and countercyclical thereafter.
Empirical analysis of regional economic performance in Russia : human capital perspective
(2012) Kufenko, Vadim
Having shown the important role of the Russian economy in the ex-USSR region by causality tests, we proceed to empirical analysis of growth and performance of the Russian regions. A dynamic panel data approach enabled us to obtain elasticity coefficients on proxies for convergence, physical capital, labour and innovation. After including human capital in the reformulated model we resolve endogeneity and reverse causality by introducing two instrumental variable approaches. Taking advantage of the Unified State Exam data we managed to successfully endogenize human capital by number (and share) of outperforming students and by the education index. The second approach helped to improve causality between instruments and human capital: the dates of first university foundation and distance to Moscow successfully explains human capital variations due to historical and spatial characteristics of a given region.
Statistischer Überblick der türkischen Migration in Baden-Württemberg und Deutschland
(2012) Kaiser, Micha; Hartmann, Dominik
Diese Arbeit stellt die Eckdaten der türkischen Migration nach Deutschland zusammen. Das erste Kapitel beleuchtet die historischen Meilensteine der Integration, vom Anwerbungsabkommen am 31. Oktober 1961, über das Rückkehrförderungsgesetz 1983 und dem Einbürgerungsgesetz aus dem Jahr 2000. Das zweite Kapitel fasst wesentliche Daten und Fakten über die türkischen Einwanderer in Deutschland - im Vergleich auch zu anderen Migrantengruppen ? zusammen; unter anderem werden dabei Altersstruktur, Bildung und Einbindung in den Arbeitsmarkt analysiert. Im dritten Kapitel wird der Fall Baden-Württemberg näher dargestellt, im vierten kurz auf die Stadt Stuttgart eingegangen. Abschließend werden die positiven und negativen Tendenzen, basierend auf dem zugrundeliegenden Datenmaterial, noch einmal zusammengefasst. Einerseits wird die positive Tendenz vom Gastarbeiter zum Bürger deutlich, andererseits decken die Zahlen nach wie vor bestehende Schwächen deutlich auf. Diese Arbeit soll einen Beitrag dazu leisten, die Vielzahl unterschiedlicher Statistiken zum Thema Deutsch-Türkische Migration prägnant zusammenzufassen und anschaulich darzustellen.

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