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Institut für Bodenkunde und Standortslehre

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Browsing Institut für Bodenkunde und Standortslehre by Person "Bendel, Daniela Silke"

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    Regionalising a soil-plant model ensemble to simulate future yields under changing climatic conditions
    (2023) Bendel, Daniela Silke; Streck, Thilo
    Models are supportive in depicting complex processes and in predicting their effects. Climate models are applied in many areas to assess the possible consequences of climate change. Even though Global Climate Models (GCM) have now been regionalised to the national level, their resolution of down to 5x5 km2 is still rather coarse from the perspective of a plant modeller. Plant models were developed for the field scale and work spatially explicitly. This requires to make adjustments if they are applied at coarser scales. The regionalisation of plant models is reasonable and advantageous against the background of climate change and policy advice, both gaining in importance. The higher the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of a region, the greater the computational need. The (dis)aggregation of data, frequently available in differing resolutions or quality, is often unavoidable and fraught with high uncertainties. In this dissertation, we regionalised a spatially-explicit crop model ensemble to improve yield projections for winter wheat under a changing climate. This involved upscaling a crop model ensemble consisting of three crop models to the Stuttgart region, which has an area of 3,654 km2. After a thorough parameter estimation performed with a varying number of Agricultural Response Units on a high-performance computing cluster, yield projections up to the year 2100 were computed. The representative concentration pathways of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) RCP2.6 (large reduction of CO2 emissions) and RCP8.5 (worst case scenario) served as a framework for this effort. Under both IPCC scenarios, the model ensemble predicts stable winter wheat yields up to 2100, with a moderate decrease of 5 dt/ha for RCP2.6 and a small increase of 1 dt/ha for RCP8.5. The variability within the model ensemble is particularly high for RCP8.5. Results were obtained without accounting for a potential progress in wheat breeding.