Browsing by Person "Lippert, Christian"

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Agrarökonomische Analyse von Verfahren zur Erzeugung lignozellulosehaltiger Biomasse und deren Akzeptanz in der Landwirtschaft Baden-Württembergs
(2018) Gillich, Caroline Sophie-Theresia; Lippert, Christian
In a future bio-based economy, agricultural production of renewable raw materials for the production of plant biomass is supposed to play a central role. This also includes the perennial crops short rotation coppice (SRC) and miscanthus. A material utilization, particularly of the produced lignocellulose, in chemical industry can contribute to a bio-based economic activity. However, the cultivation of SRC and miscanthus is not yet widespread. For a variety of reasons, such as lack of knowledge or low profitability, farmers have not strongly implemented these crops so far. To find out, which factors do have an impact on the cultivation of SRC and miscanthus, farmer workshops with surveys were conducted in selected regions of Baden-Wuerttemberg. Additionally, by means of a choice experiment, the preferences of the farmers for the cultivation of SRC and miscanthus were elicited. As the introduction of new production methods is often linked to increased risks, in addition the risk attitude of the farmers was determined by means of a “Holt and Laury” lottery. The surveys took place in the Vergleichsgebietsgruppen (VGG) „Unterland / Gaeue“, „Rhine / Lake Constance“ and „Bauland / Hohenlohe“ in Baden-Wuerttemberg. For all VGG site specific profitability and risk analyses were performed. The mentioned VGG were identified as most suitable for SRC and miscanthus. In total, 117 farmers participated in nine organized workshops. In the surveyed sample more farmers are cultivating SRC than in the entire farmer population. For the analysis of the choice experiment Random Parameter Logit Models were used. The following results are to be interpreted under ceteris paribus conditions. Generally, the part-worth utility of the cultivation of SRC and miscanthus is negative. Additionally to the opportunity costs of land, the expected average compensation payments amount to € 460 and € 400 per hectare and year for SRC and miscanthus. However, in this context farmers do not significantly distinguish between the two perennial crops. As expected an increasing profitability of these production activities increases the utility, whereas an increasing variability of contribution margins and increasing investment costs reduce the utility. It should be noted that a guaranteed purchase contract for the harvested crop over the whole cultivation period increases the utility of the permanent crops at a significant level. Through this the negative part-worth utility of SRC or miscanthus could be compensated almost completely. If colleagues in the near surrounding already cultivate these crops, this also increases the utility. Among the respondents a significant preference heterogeneity exists for both production activities and all attributes considered in the choice experiment. Further model estimations with interaction terms to explain part of the heterogeneity show that, among other things, an increasing farm size has a negative impact on the probability of cultivating SRC. An increasing age of the farm manager also reduces the utility of the cultivation of SRC and miscanthus. An increasing work experience has a positive effect on the probability of choosing SRC. Moreover, an increase of the initial investment cost reduces the utility of the participants the more, the more risk averse they are. In this context, the implicitly assumed interest rates, deduced from the model and assuming a farmer with average risk attitude, are in a realistic range between 2.3 % and 4.1 %. Based on the estimated part-worth utility distribution parameters of the model without interaction terms, finally supply functions were derived by means of Monte Carlo simulations, to illustrate cultivation potentials of SRC and miscanthus at various wood chip prices and for different scenarios. The potentials of SRC and miscanthus estimated this way are more realistic than former GIS-based potentials as not only location factors but also empirically found preferences of the farmers and opportunity costs of farmland were taken into account. Under the assumptions made, the maximum expectable potential of SRC and miscanthus on arable land in the surveyed region amounts in each case to 30,000 hectares. It should be noticed, that this cultivation potential is relatively low. The results of the choice experiment show that - as long as this is considered to be justified from an economic point of view - either a direct subsidy by the government, the cultivation in clusters or purchase guarantees for the farmers by the processing industry can strongly promote the cultivation of perennial lignocellulose containing crops.
Analysis of the impact, costs and acceptance of lapwing plots as a protection measure for farmland birds in Germany
(2023) Buschmann, Christoph; Lippert, Christian
Biodiversity in the agricultural landscape is declining in the European Union (EU) including Germany. This trend is also observed for farmland bird populations that are used as an important indicator of overall species diversity. Among farmland birds, the Northern lapwing (Vanellus vanellus) is an indicator species whose population has been particularly affected. Populations suffer inter alia from frequent cultivation measures and degraded habitat quality on agriculturally used land. To improve the status of farmland bird populations, appropriate measures are called for both in the EU and on German national level in different strategy papers. The European Commission has set the concrete target to increase farmland bird populations by 30 % until 2050. Despite the high demand to plan the implementation of biodiversity strategies, literature provides little guidance for farmland birds, i. e. ex-ante modelling of how many protection measures and how much compensation are needed to achieve certain time-bound conservation targets. The thesis addresses this research gap by analysing the impact of the conservation measure ‘lapwing plot’. Lapwing plots are fallow sections within arable fields that can be used as feeding areas and - during the breeding season - provide cover for the chicks from predators. In detail, the thesis pursues three objectives: First, to project how much lapwing plot provision is required to meet specific time-bound conservation targets on a national level by using a spatially explicit population viability analysis (PVA). Second, to calculate the corresponding costs based on implementation and opportunity costs (i. e. gross margins forgone) for compensating farmers who participate in a lapwing plot agri-environmental scheme (AES). For this, the PVA is combined with an economic analysis. Third, to analyse the acceptance of a lapwing plot AES by surveying farmers with a discrete choice experiment (DCE). PVA results show that the lapwing population in Germany could decline from 70.000 breeding pairs in 2006 to 12.000 or 23.000 pairs (depending on model assumptions) in 2055 if no further conservation measures were taken and land use remained stable. To achieve the ’30 % plus conservation target’ of the EU Commission for the lapwing, 30 % or 65 % of the breeding pairs need to be protected by a lapwing plot in arable land or a comparably effective measure in grassland. The corresponding costs for protection on arable land range from on average 1.1 to 5.6 million € per year depending on model assumptions. Costs may, however, be reduced by up to 52 % with a regionally focused economic optimisation. Since AES participation is voluntary, acceptance is of crucial importance. The DCE conducted to analyse acceptance considers different design options if the lapwing plot were introduced as an AES and identifies possible drivers and inhibitors of farmers’ participation. Remarkably, those design options which ensure that the AES can be co-financed by the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD), i. e., a participation period of five years and the nature of the relevant sanctions regime, are a particular acceptance barrier. However, so far EAFRD - as part of the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) - has been the most important funding instrument for AESs. Therefore, the thesis outlines how the lack of EAFRD acceptance could be addressed in the new CAP period 2023-2027 and points out alternative funding instruments. In conclusion, the lapwing plot is - according to the PVA results - a suitable measure to meet conservation objectives, such as the ’30 % plus conservation target’ of the EU Commission, if it is implemented to a sufficient extent. However, it is questionable whether a sufficient extent of implementation can be achieved if the lapwing plot is put into practice relying on voluntary AES with the available funding instruments and limited budgets. This would require a high level of acceptance among farmers in the affected regions. Therefore, the lapwing plot needs to be combined with other conservation approaches including the expansion of protected areas and in-field measures, such as the reduced use of fertilisers and pesticides. For policy makers, it is recommended to develop combined solutions in overall strategies and perform corresponding ex-ante modelling. For such strategies the thesis provides an important basis and with the PVA a suitable expandable model.
Microeconometric analysis of the impacts of climate change on German agriculture : applications and extensions of the Ricardian approach
(2015) Chatzopoulos, Thomas; Lippert, Christian
The so-called Ricardian approach is an econometrics-based climate change impact assessment frequently used by agricultural and environmental economists. The intuition behind this approach is that, in the long run, the optimal behavior of farms is climate-dependent. In essence, the approach explores the role of climate in determining farm profitability and potential adaptation, by regressing economic or behavioral measures of agricultural outcomes against climatic and various other land and site attributes. The overall output of the approach enables (i) the identification of profitability differentials due to climate differentials, (ii) marginal implicit pricing of climate, and (iii) a probabilistic exploration of long-run adaptation strategies. This cumulative dissertation took up the challenge of improving specific conceptual and methodological aspects of the Ricardian approach in order to render it a more realistic impact assessment tool. In particular, we aimed at a more efficient treatment of the variables that proxy climate, and at the imposition of structure on equations that can reflect adaptation. Three empirical studies were pursued for over 270,000 German farms at three spatial scales: districts (N = 439), community associations (n = 3,515), and communities (n = 9,684). For this reason, secondary data of various formats (e.g., farm census records, measurements by weather stations, digital images) on a host of characteristics (e.g., farm-specific, climatic, topographical, geographical) were extensively processed (e.g., integrated, geocoded, spatially interpolated, zonally rearranged) and spatially matched. We took a multi-model and multi-stage approach from an instrumental-variables (IV) perspective, which we coupled with advances from the subfield of spatial econometrics. From an empirical viewpoint, our results showed that historical climate change has generally been beneficial to the sector as a whole. The impact of historical mean annual temperature (precipitation) on average land rental prices is positive (concave). Indicatively, permanent-crop and vegetable farms value temperature more than the rest farm types, whereas forage farms, and to a certain extent mixed farms, stand out for their resilience to precipitation. Climate change in the near decades is likely to be beneficial, but the magnitude of benefits depends on the farm type one looks at.
Profitability and risk efficiency of arable farming without chemical-synthetic plant protection but with optimized use of mineral fertilizers
(2024) Pergner, Isabell; Lippert, Christian
The use of chemical-synthetic plant protection products (pesticides) in conventional agriculture has been repeatedly criticized in recent years for its negative environmental impacts. Their use can lead to contamination of soil, water, and air, endangering not only biodiversity but also decreasing the quality of drinking water. A potential, more environmentally friendly alternative is organic farming, which abstains from both pesticides and mineral fertilizers. Despite the recognized environmental benefits of organic arable farming, there are some criticisms. For instance, organic farming’s production quantity may be lower compared to conventional agriculture, raising concerns about its ability to ensure food security. An arable farming system without pesticides but with the use of mineral fertilizers represents a middle way between conventional and organic farming. This method uses mineral fertilizers to promote plant growth while abstaining from pesticides. Compared to organic farming, this approach may achieve higher production quantities, contributing to food security, while avoiding the adverse environmental effects of pesticides. This type of agriculture can thus offer a more balanced approach. It is important to explore and promote this alternative arable farming system for a healthier long-term way of arable farming. Hence, the first article in this dissertation provides a comprehensive literature review of the social, economic, and ecological impacts of pesticides and the resulting reasons for farmers to use or abstain from them. It identifies obstacles and potential benefits that could be utilized for developing farming without pesticides but with use of mineral fertilizer. In farming without pesticides, but with mineral fertilizer: (1) yields and their temporal stability are expected to be higher than in organic farming but lower than in conventional farming; (2) profitability might suffer due to energy consumption and high costs; (3) soil fertility and biodiversity are expected to increase along with alternative measures for disease and pest control; (4) crop rotations will more diverse compared to conventional agriculture; (5) optimal plant utilization of mineral fertilizers might not be achieved without balanced nitrogen supply. When farmers choose between different cropping systems, they consider not only expected farm income but also income stability. The lower the total contribution margin variance of a farm, the more stable the income. Income variance can be calculated and included in Quadratic Risk Programming models applying the Expected Value-Variance Criterion when temporal (co-)variances of the contribution margins of individual crops are known. Empirically sound approaches to identify these are lacking. In the second article, we outline a way, from an individual farmer’s perspective, to derive temporal (co-)variances of contribution margins for crops. Neglecting producer price variances and variable costs, it is shown how to estimate temporal crop yield (co-)variances based on available yield data from a long-term field trial at the Julius Kühn Institut in Dahnsdorf (Germany). The four studied cropping systems are (b1) without fertilizer and pesticides; (b2) without fertilizer but with pesticides; (b3) with fertilizer but without pesticides; and (b4) with fertilizer and pesticides. Using a mixed-effects model, a covariance matrix is estimated for yield data of winter rye, winter barley, and peas from 1998 to 2021 for each system. Additionally, we computed means, standard deviations, and coefficients of variation for the different yields. The estimated (co-)variances serve as valuable indicators for corresponding orders of magnitude and can be utilized for Quadratic Risk Programming, aiming to optimize a cultivation program while considering preferred risk levels. In the third article, time series data on yields, prices, and variable costs are collected from statistical institutes for several crops grown in conventional agriculture, organic farming, and farming without pesticides, but with mineral fertilizers. Their standard deviations and correlation coefficients are calculated to derive corresponding (co-)variances. These are used for a Monte Carlo simulation providing average contribution margins and their (co-)variances for the considered crops. With this information a hypothetical model farm is constructed. Using Quadratic Risk Programming and considering different risk levels, expected total contribution margins are maximized, resulting in optimal combinations of expected total contribution margin and its variance. Organic farming shows high total contribution margins for optimized crop rotations but also increased variance compared to other cropping systems. The inclusion of cereals in a crop rotation reduces risk, while the inclusion of potatoes and sugar beets raises risk across all systems. The ceteris paribus analysis indicates that implementing conventional crop rotations into other systems leads to unfavorable crop portfolios or even negative total contribution margins. Therefore, optimizing and diversifying the portfolio for each cropping system is crucial. An optimized farming system without pesticides but with mineral fertilizer exhibits lower risk and lower total contribution margin compared to other systems. With rising prices and increased variances, farming without pesticides, but with mineral fertilizers becomes more advantageous, providing a higher total contribution margin while maintaining lower risk compared to optimized conventional crop rotations. In the future, this planning method should be executed using data from farms for an empirically well founded comparison of cropping systems.
Social and economic analysis of the organic sector in Bhutan
(2024) Tshotsho; Lippert, Christian
As in some other low-income countries, organic agriculture (OA) has been introduced in Bhutan and is increasingly being promoted by the state with a top-down approach. While the potential of OA to provide ecosystem services and empower smallholder farmers through market participation is well known, it is also widely recognized that smallholder farmers face many challenges. This thesis discusses the challenges of OA in the case of Bhutanese smallholder farmers and assesses the potential of the farmers' social network to address some of these challenges. What challenges do smallholder farmers face in a top-down approach to OA? What types of social networks are still practiced among smallholder farmers? What potential do social networks have in overcoming the challenges of OA that pose difficulties in implementation? Answering these questions is important because organic farmers report serious challenges that are often neglected by the government in low-income countries. Because farmers are part of a community and embedded in the social structure, a change at the community level can have a huge impact on individual members. The actions of each individual can also have an impact on others, which in turn can affect the overall outcome for the community. Farmers in low-income countries rely on informal network relationships of various kinds as a substitute for the missing or inadequate formal institutions. To assess the potential of farmers' social networks in addressing the challenges of OA, this thesis identifies specific social networks that are characteristic of the farming community and relevant to addressing the challenges of OA for smallholder farmers. This study is based on three main chapters that reflect the main objectives of the overall work: 1) To describe the large-scale conversion of the OA sector in Bhutan and discuss the challenges related to institutional capacity, management and farming practices, nutrient balances and yield gaps, 2) examining informal labor exchanges in farming villages with successful adoption of labor-intensive farming practices and determining the nature of social enforcement mechanisms used, and 3) outlining and testing how two conceptually distinct social mechanisms fit the observed reality of adoption of improved seeds in Bhutanese remote villages. The first chapter takes a descriptive approach, while the second chapter presents an empirical study. The last chapter has a primarily methodological focus. In addition to these three chapters, the relevance of social network in the case of OA and the aims of the thesis are presented in the introductory chapter, and a final chapter contains the major conclusions, limitations and policy implications of the findings. The second chapter, which deals with the first objective, analyzes the feasibility of large- scale conversion to OA in Bhutan. It illustrates that organic farmers must comply with the Bhutan Organic Standard (BOS) and that the number of certified farmers under the Local Organic Assurance System (LOAS) is increasing. The results also show that organic farmers are struggling with low yields, nutrient imbalances in nitrogen, lack of funds to implement organic programs, lack of extension services for OA, and other related institutional inadequacies. The chapter argues that analyzing and understanding the challenges of conversion to OA in Bhutan can lead to transferable findings to similar contexts characterized by smallholder farming systems. The third chapter, which deals with the second objective, examines informal labor exchanges in Bhutanese farming villages that have successfully adopted labor-intensive agricultural practices such as OA. It then tests the existence of social enforcement mechanisms described in the literature by relating the observed network pattern of labor exchange to farmers supposed cooperative behavior. The results show that labor exchange networks in organic farming villages are characterized by a high prevalence of completely connected structures (i.e. triad closure) that seem to constitute the main enforcement mechanism. It discusses how this social network (well-functioning labor exchange) can be used to select further villages for OA implementation in the future. The fourth chapter addresses the third objective and examines how two different forms of social network mechanisms–social contagion (direct communication) and structural equivalence (social standing)–can benefit the dissemination of improved seeds in a wider agricultural community. This study was formulated against the assumption that farmers do not make decisions in isolation and that technology diffusion models with social network considerations provide better explanations and policy guidance. The results provide evidence that an interventionist agricultural policy should not only favor farmers with multiple connections in the hope that their behavior will influence their multiple network partners, but also farmers in different social positions, including peripheral network positions, who can inspire other, less well-connected farmers to adopt. The thesis concludes that considering the potential of farmers’ social networks in solving some of the challenges of OA in low-income countries like Bhutan can open up new avenues of research. The thesis also concludes that a large-scale conversion to OA in Bhutan may be more difficult to accomplish than previously thought, given the evidence of important challenges that are currently neglected. Given the evidence on the role of social networks and how they are still functioning in some remote villages in Bhutan, a bottom-up initiative with additional government support is preferable to the current top-down approach.
Theoretical analysis and preference modelling for the valuation of ecosystem services from native pollinators in selected Thai rural communities
(2018) Narjes, Manuel; Lippert, Christian
Until now, the existing microeconomic models concerned with pollination markets have not accommodated the global diversity of beekeeper-farmer interactions. The most prominent of such theoretical models is dedicated to describing the determinants of colony stocking densities and of equilibrium wages that farmers have paid to commercial beekeepers for decades in the highly bee-pollination reliant almond monocultures of California. This cumulative dissertation generalizes this basic model by taking into account the marginal productivity of a given agro-ecosystem’s wild bees and the opportunity costs that farmers incur when assigning labor time to beekeeping. In that regard, we assessed the economic potential of on-farm beekeeping, which can involve several bee species, by juxtaposing this activity’s net benefits against those from hiring commercial pollination services. In addition to serving as a classification tool for a plurality of farmer-beekeeper-nature interactions and related optimization problems, the resulting analytical framework helps identifying the institutional settings that are most likely to lead to a specific bioeconomic equilibrium supply of pollination. What is more, it illustrates the interplay of the pertinent economic and agro-ecological factors, thus assisting the postulation of empirically testable hypotheses. We also conducted two separate discrete choice experiments (DCEs) with orchardists from the Thai provinces of Chiang Mai (N = 198 respondents) and Chanthaburi (N = 127), in order to elicit their preferences for changes in the population of local wild bees that would hypothetically result from a conservation policy consisting (along with a per-household implementation fee) of at least one of the following three measures: (i) offering farmers bee-friendly alternatives to conventional agro-chemicals, (ii) enabling the protection and/or rehabilitation of natural bee habitats near cropland, and (iii) fostering the husbandry of native bee species by transferring technical knowledge on the practice of on-farm beekeeping. In this context, we fitted random parameter logit models on the Chiang Mai dataset. They yielded a significant willingness to pay (WTP) for the presented conservation measures and suggested that the disutility the respondents perceived for a 50% decline in the local population of native bees was greater than the utility they would derive from experiencing a bee population increase of the same magnitude. Moreover, comparing our aggregated WTP estimates to the expected production losses, showed that orchard farmers underestimated the true use value of pollination. On the other hand, the average WTP for all conservation measures combined by far exceeded the costs that, according to our calculations, each household would incur for such a project to be implemented. Our models also indicated a significant preference heterogeneity in the sampled population, which we could partly explain with idiosyncratic variables such as the respondents’ attitudes towards native bees and beekeeping. Finally, we examined further sources of randomness in the observed choice behavior, by modelling the unknown choice decision-relevant influences that could not be captured during the DCEs. To that end, we fitted generalized mixed logit (GMXL) models on the pooled datasets, which allowed comparing, on a common utility scale, the part-worth (value) estimates from Chiang Mai and Chanthaburi, where different experimental designs were applied. Our results reveal that farmers in Chanthaburi, who reported having experienced crop declines that they attributed to insufficient pollination, introduced less subjective factors into their choices than their Chiang Mai counterparts, who may have been less familiar with the importance of conserving bees. Moreover, the GMXL results also suggest that Chanthaburi farmers placed a significantly higher value on the above-mentioned measures (i) and (ii), while caring comparatively less about a 50% decline in local wild bee colonies. One can thus hypothesize that an actual local pollinator decline may have made Chanthaburi farmers more aware of the importance of conserving native bees, while paradoxically making them more independent from the provision of wild pollination services, as they started managing crop pollination with stingless bees.