Institut für Tropische Agrarwissenschaften (Hans-Ruthenberg-Institut)

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hohpublica.uni-hohenheim.de/handle/123456789/21

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Exploring the plausibility of inoculated cowpeas as a climate adaptation strategy for Namibian smallholder farmers
(2025) Rasche, Livia; Katjana, Johannes; Jantke, Kerstin; Uchezuba, David; Schneider, Uwe A.; Lombardi, Mariarosaria
Increased cultivation of cowpeas is a possible adaptation option for Namibian farmers under changing climatic conditions. Using inoculated cowpeas can potentially double the yields under favorable climate conditions. But is such a potentially beneficial agricultural adaptation technique likely to be adopted? We surveyed 90 cowpea farmers from 30 villages in the Kavango region of northern Namibia on their households and farms, access to institutions and services, food consumption and preferences, and perceptions of climate change. Our survey reveals that smallholder farmers will not readily adopt the new technology. At most, about 50% of farmers can be convinced by new information to change their agricultural activities. When specifically asked about their willingness to grow inoculated cowpeas, almost all farmers responded that they would be willing to do so. However, the farmers are reluctant to allocate more land for cowpea cultivation, mainly because harvesting is very time and labor-intensive. The study shows that technology assessments should be conducted in combination with socio-economic assessments to realistically assess the potential success of proposed adaptation measures, as the extent to which a new technology may be adopted is an essential indicator for justifying funding of new technologies or adaptation programs.
Influence of climate-smart technologies on the success of livestock donation programs for smallholder farmers in Rwanda
(2024) Kandulu, John M.; Zuo, Alec; Wheeler, Sarah; Dusingizimana, Theogene; Chagunda, Mizeck G. G.; Kandulu, John M.; School of Economics and Public Policy, The University of Adelaide, 10 Pulteney St, 5005, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia; Zuo, Alec; School of Economics and Public Policy, The University of Adelaide, 10 Pulteney St, 5005, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia; Wheeler, Sarah; School of Economics and Public Policy, The University of Adelaide, 10 Pulteney St, 5005, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia; Dusingizimana, Theogene; College of Agriculture, Animal Science and Veterinary Medicine, University of Rwanda, P.O. Box 210, Musanze, Kigali, Rwanda; Chagunda, Mizeck G. G.; Animal Breeding and Husbandry in the Tropics and Subtropics, University of Hohenheim, Garben Street, 17 Instituts- Und Hörsaalgebäude, -112, Stuttgart, Germany
Climate change threatens the livelihoods of Sub-Saharan African farmers through increased droughts. Livestock donation programs offer a potential solution, but their effectiveness under climate stress remains unclear. This study assesses the economic viability of integrating climate-smart technologies (cowsheds and biogas plants) into these programs in Rwanda. Using a stochastic benefit–cost analysis from the beneficiary perspective, we evaluate the net gains for households receiving heifers compared to the current program. Our findings reveal that integrating climate-smart technologies significantly enhances economic viability. Households with cows and climate-smart technologies can possibly realise net benefits 3.5 times higher than the current program, with benefit–cost ratios reaching 5:1. Beyond economic benefits, adopting biogas reduces deforestation, greenhouse gas emissions, and respiratory illness risks. This study demonstrates that integrating climate-smart technologies into livestock donation programs can generate positive economic, environmental, and health benefits, leading to more resilient and sustainable smallholder systems. However, overcoming implementation challenges requires tailored policy packages addressing local barriers.
A multifaceted analysis of Myanmar’s rice sector: gender perspectives, international competitiveness, and farmers’ emotional well-being
(2025) Chan, Nandar Aye; Zeller, Manfred
The agricultural sector is vital to Myanmar’s economic development, food security, and poverty reduction. However, recent global shifts in commodity markets, combined with local crises such as climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, conflicts, economic instability, and rising fertilizer prices and operational costs, have significantly affected Myanmar’s agri-food sector. These challenges threaten the performance of the agricultural sector, particularly the rice sector, which is essential for many livelihoods, rural employment, and export earnings. The sector faces declining productivity, reduced incomes, rising debt burdens, and increased vulnerability, especially among smallholder farmers, including women. Therefore, the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Irrigation (MOALI) is dedicated to strengthening the rice sector through promoting inclusive gender roles, enhancing competitiveness in the domestic and international rice markets, and safeguarding the socio-economic well-being of all farmers. Addressing Myanmar’s key agricultural challenges and aligning with the objectives of MOALI, this dissertation investigates three critical areas (Chapters 2 to 4) to make a modest knowledge contribution to the sustainability and long-term development of the country’s rice sector. Despite government initiatives and extensive research on Myanmar’s rice sector, three important aspects remain underexplored: the gender gap in productivity, cost competitiveness, and the role of productivity in mediating shocks to farmers’ well-being. Specifically, this dissertation has three main objectives: 1) to estimate the magnitude of the gender gap in rice productivity and identify the factors contributing to this gap; 2) to analyze the cost competitiveness of rice production by examining production costs, cost efficiency, and the potential effect of improving cost efficiency on the country’s global competitiveness; and 3) to examine the effects of shocks on farmers’ well-being and explore how rice productivity mediates this relationship. Understanding these issues is crucial for designing policies that improve the performance of Myanmar’s rice sector and strengthen farmers’ resilience. The dissertation employs a quantitative approach, using household survey data and other secondary data sources. Particularly, data for Chapters 2 and 3 originate from the 2014 Area-Based Farm Household Survey in the Ayeyarwady Delta Region, administered by the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) under the Metrics and Indicators for Tracking in the Global Rice Science Partnership project. Chapter 3 also incorporates nationwide phone survey datasets, including the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) and the Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (MAPS), conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) during 2021-2022. This cumulative dissertation consists of five chapters. Chapter 1 presents the introduction. Chapter 2 examines the gender gap. Chapter 3 focuses on the cost competitiveness of Myanmar’s rice sector. Then, Chapter 4 investigates the mediating role of rice productivity in the shocks-happiness relationship, and Chapter 5 concludes the dissertation and provides policy recommendations. Chapter 2 presents an analysis of the gender productivity gap in Myanmar’s rice sector. The analysis focuses on the Ayeyarwady Delta region, one of the three major agroecological zones for rice cultivation in Myanmar, using IRRI regional plot-level data. The study addresses seasonal variation and assesses jointly managed plots. The Oaxaca-Blinder mean decomposition approach is used to identify the causes of gender differences in monsoon and summer paddy productivity. The empirical findings show that women managers are 7 percent less productive than men in monsoon paddy production, with 95 percent of this gap explained by structural effects. Plots jointly managed by women and men outperform those managed by either women or men alone in summer paddy production. The results show that seasonality affects the disparity in gender productivity. Divorced women account for a large portion of the productivity differential among non-married women managers. Initiatives to eliminate the gender yield gap in Myanmar should pay attention to the unique requirements and obstacles that women encounter throughout different seasons and tailor their interventions accordingly. Chapter 3 conducts a comparative analysis of production costs among major rice-producing countries and estimates the cost efficiency of rice farming in Myanmar using a stochastic frontier cost function model. Moreover, this study examines the link between cost efficiency and domestic resource costs (DRC), a key indicator of global competitiveness in rice production. The study also considers the seasonal variations in Myanmar during both the dry and wet seasons. The findings show that Myanmar ranks as the second least expensive rice-producing country among selected Asian countries. The mean cost efficiencies are 89% and 86% for the dry and wet seasons, respectively. Both dry and wet seasons of rice production demonstrate a comparative advantage. The results also show that cost efficiency positively contributes to global competitiveness in both seasons. Focusing on education, farm size, seed procurement strategies, and training programs can increase cost efficiency, thereby further improving global competitiveness in rice production. Chapter 4 examines the effects of shocks on farmers’ happiness in Myanmar and explores the mediation role of rice productivity in this relationship. The study uses nationwide phone survey datasets from Myanmar, provided by the IFPRI, specifically focusing on the rice sector to assess productivity. The study applies the mediation analysis outlined by Acharya et al. (2016) and estimates the average controlled direct effect (ACDE) of shocks while accounting for rice productivity as a mediator. To ensure robustness, additional causal mediation analysis is employed. The results indicate that rice productivity partially mediates the shock-happiness relationship. This suggests that shocks influence happiness through additional pathways beyond productivity. Moreover, farmers’ happiness is more directly influenced by recent productivity than by past agricultural performance. However, past shocks continue to have a significant and lingering effect on their happiness. These findings highlight the need for policymakers to mitigate the impact of shocks on well-being not only by improving rice productivity but also by addressing other factors that influence farmers’ happiness. The findings of this dissertation contribute to the literature on the development of Myanmar’s rice sector. Firstly, providing the first empirical evidence of the gender gap in productivity can help inform targeted policy interventions to increase rice productivity while addressing the specific needs of men and women in rice production. Secondly, it provides scalable insights to promote the competitiveness, sustainability, and efficiency of rice production, which not only benefits Myanmar but also contributes to the broader global rice market. Finally, given the importance of understanding the relationship between shocks and well-being through rice productivity, this insight provides valuable guidance for designing interventions to strengthen productivity and improve well-being in vulnerable agrarian communities facing climate-related shocks. All these chapters contribute to the understanding of seasonality, which is vital for highlighting the importance of seasonal production dynamics in Myanmar’s rice sector. Overall, Myanmar’s rice sector can achieve greater sustainability and development by promoting gender equality, enhancing competitiveness, and supporting resilience-building measures for rice-farming communities, ultimately improving farmers’ well-being.
Use of seasonal forecasts in smallholder agricultural decision-making in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia
(2025) Kayamo, Samuel Elias; Berger, Thomas
Smallholder farmers in Ethiopia’s Central Rift Valley face pronounced risks from climate variability and erratic rainfall, challenges that threaten agricultural productivity, food security, and rural livelihoods. Rising climate hazards have spurred the promotion of seasonal precipitation forecasts as a promising means of supporting adaptation, yet the translation of such information into tangible adaptive action depends on a complex interplay of local agro-ecological conditions, available adaptation strategies, and behavioral responses. This thesis provides a comprehensive, interdisciplinary investigation into the economic value, adoption dynamics, and policy implications of seasonal forecast information for smallholder farmers, integrating agent-based modelling, dynamic risk assessment, crop-growth simulation, and framed field experiments. A principal focus of the research is the evaluation of adaptive management strategies for smallholder farmers enabled by seasonal forecasts. Examined strategies include crop and cultivar selection in response to rainfall outlooks, optimized planting dates, forecast-driven fertilizer management, and flexible in-season adjustments (such as crop switching or tied ridging). Each option is rigorously evaluated using observational, experimental and simulated data. In assessing the practical impacts of integrating seasonal rainfall forecast information into smallholder agricultural decision making, the results of this thesis indicate that forecast-based cultivar selection has the potential to support more effective management strategies for farmers in Ethiopia’s Central Rift Valley. By enabling better alignment of cultivar choices with anticipated seasonal rainfall conditions, farmers can enhance the adaptive capacity of their management practices in the face of climate variability. While the observed financial gains under realistic forecast accuracy are modest, these findings highlight that forecast-based cultivar selection can serve as a valuable decision-support tool. However, realizing the full potential of this approach depends not only on improvements in forecast skill, but also on the availability of reliable evidence regarding cultivar performance under diverse weather conditions and on substantial changes to seed breeding and distribution systems. Only when forecast-matching cultivars are made available to farmers promptly can the benefits of high-accuracy seasonal rainfall forecasts be more fully achieved. In the subsequent analysis, this thesis applies a state-contingent embedded risk framework to systematically explore how the timing of smallholder management decisions—specifically crop choice, sowing date, tied-ridging, relay cropping, and fertilization—can be optimized in light of seasonal rainfall forecast information. Using multi-stage discrete stochastic programming, the study evaluates adaptive strategies at the whole-farm level by simulating crop yield responses to management choices across 2,400 possible weather trajectories. The results show that forecast-informed management decisions can improve farmer income, but the extent and consistency of these benefits vary across seasons. The findings further reveal that opportunities for in-season adjustment—rather than choices made solely at the start of the season—are especially critical for achieving positive results in response to forecast information. By evaluating the long-term impacts of forecast-based decision making at the whole-farm level in the Central Rift Valley, this study emphasizes the need for more tailored and effective communication and advisory services of seasonal rainfall forecasts. In addition, the analysis highlights the inherent unpredictability of agricultural outcomes under climate uncertainty and demonstrates the continuing importance of building empirical understanding of how management actions and varying weather conditions together shape farm performance. These insights suggest that policy interventions aimed at strengthening real-time advisory systems and supporting farmers’ capacity for flexible, adaptive management are essential for fully realizing the benefits of seasonal rainfall forecasting in smallholder agriculture. The third component of the thesis explores how smallholder farmers receive, interpret, and act upon seasonal precipitation forecasts, drawing on evidence from framed field experiments conducted in Ethiopia’s Central Rift Valley. The analysis demonstrates that neither improvements in forecast accuracy nor dissemination of information alone are sufficient to induce significant behavioral change among farmers. Adoption is most likely when seasonal precipitation forecasts are communicated repeatedly, presented in clear and actionable formats, and tailored to local realities through trusted channels. The results further indicate that factors such as farmers’ education levels, prior experience with seasonal forecasts, and regular engagement with extension services play a central role in facilitating effective use of such information. The findings highlight the potential of digital innovations, such as smartphone-based advisories and AI-supported tools, to improve the reach and personalization of seasonal precipitation forecasts, provided these solutions are developed through participatory and user-centered approaches. Overall, the study underscores the importance of aligning advisory services with both the informational and contextual needs of smallholder farmers in order to foster more effective and inclusive adaptation to climate variability. Overall, the results of this thesis emphasize that the benefits of seasonal rainfall forecasts can only be fully realized through an integrated approach. This requires the combination of advances in forecast technology, adaptive input systems, effective communication, and supportive policy environments. Comprehensive and locally tailored adaptation packages—linking seasonal rainfall forecast information to improved access to seed and inputs, credit, training, and extension services—emerge as the most effective strategy for strengthening resilience. Ultimately, by connecting quantitative modeling, empirical experimentation, and policy analysis, this thesis provides a robust foundation for scaling up inclusive, impactful advisory systems based on seasonal rainfall forecasts to better equip smallholder farmers for managing risks associated with increasing rainfall variability.

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