Browsing by Subject "Ethiopia"

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An analysis of gender in intra-household decision-making as an important socio-economic factor in agriculture-nutrition linkages
(2021) Sariyev, Orkhan; Zeller, Manfred
In 2018, almost 2 billion people around the globe experienced severe or moderate levels of food insecurity. Poverty is strongly linked with food insecurity, and most of the extreme poor live in rural areas where agriculture is the main livelihood. Thus, agricultural and rural development have profound implications for rural households. Agricultural produce is consumed or marketed or both; when marketed, the generated income can be used for (safe and nutritious) food purchases and non-food expenditures, including medical expenses and investments in sanitation. Some income may not be consumed directly but saved or invested in the form of physical, social or human capital. Moreover, considering that the end goal of development should be an environment in which people can be creative and freely enjoy a long and healthy life, rural and agricultural development will have implications for all elements of human development: health, education, poverty, environment, security, women’s status, and finally, food and nutrition. The effect is seemingly more direct and profound in terms of its contribution to a healthy household environment and food security, which together determine nutritional outcomes. However, this seemingly straightforward linkage between agriculture and nutrition is challenged by numerous socio-economic factors. This dissertation concentrates on the gender dynamics of intra-household decision-making as an important socio-economic factor in the agriculture and nutrition framework. Here, I refer to gender dynamics as the interactions and relations between men and women that can strengthen or confront the social norms of a society. Thus, the main objective is to examine the gender dynamics of decision-making as an important component of agriculture-nutrition linkages. There are three sub-objectives that concentrate on selected linkages within the framework. Given the high concentration of women’s empowerment literature in social contexts in which females are underprivileged, the first sub-objective is to investigate the implications of women’s empowerment in contexts in which women historically experienced equality or favoritism. Second, concentrating on the role of women’s empowerment in the agriculture and nutrition framework, the next objective is to study the implications of women’s empowerment on varietal adoption, diversified production, and consumption. The third objective is to examine the viability of production diversification as a strategy to improve household diets. The findings of this dissertation are based on data collected from Bhutanese and Ethiopian households. The survey in Bhutan employed multistage random sampling; it was implemented in November 2017 and covered 251 households in two central districts of Bhutan: Tsirang and Dagana. The survey in Ethiopia was conducted in 2014 and 2016 and covered 390 Ethiopian households located in a radius of circa 150-200 km around the town of Hawassa. These households were randomly selected from a sample of farmers from a survey that was conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) for the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency (ATA) in 2012. This dissertation has five chapters. The first chapter gives a general overview and provides a conceptual framework that helps to describe the research topics and questions investigated in the following chapters. The three following chapters are scientific papers that have been prepared for publication in scientific journals. The second chapter deals with the first sub-objective. It investigates women’s participation in crucial domains of intra-household decision-making and its implications for dietary quality in Bhutanese households. The third chapter studies the effect of the main female’s risk preference on the adoption of high-yielding varieties (HYVs) conditional on the dominance of female preferences declared in domestic decision-making. The fourth chapter explores the association between women’s participation in decision-making and both agricultural production and dietary diversity. The final chapter concludes the dissertation, highlights main limitations, and gives recommendations for future research and policies. Chapter 1 discusses the agriculture-nutrition linkages and interacting socio-economic factors of interest in the conceptual framework of the dissertation. Chapter 2 investigates the implications of women’s participation in domestic decision-making processes for dietary quality in Bhutanese rural households. Bhutan was selected as the country of interest for this chapter because polyandry and matrilineal succession were still observed in some ethnic groups through the 20th century. We employ a mixed methods research approach to investigate women’s participation in domestic decision-making processes and its implications for dietary quality at the household level. Considering the historical presence of matrilineal succession in Bhutan, we also check for any association between women’s land ownership and participation in domestic decision-making using non-parametric tests. Quantitative analyses and in-depth interviews reveal no lack of participation in crucial domains of domestic decision-making for Bhutanese women. We observe a positive association between women’s participation in decision-making and their property rights; thus, it is plausible that the matrilineal succession might have provided for women’s empowerment over time. Moreover, we find that gender equality in decision-making results in better dietary diversity in Bhutanese households. Given the results, we recommend that social programs focus not merely on women’s empowerment, but gender-equal human development in general. The findings contribute to the gender literature and emphasize the importance of gender equality. Considering that females are generally found to be more risk averse than males and that risk aversion hinders technology adoption, in Chapter 3, we study the importance of the main female decision-maker’s risk preference for the adoption of HYVs in Ethiopia. Most often, food security is the ultimate goal for the rural poor in Ethiopia. Their risk preferences are likely to determine their willingness to trade some short-term security for a greater potential income and security in the future. Rural households are disinclined to adopt new varieties as they are unfamiliar and present a risk of failure. The number of female decision-makers in a household is assumed to reflect the dominance of female preference declared in household decision-making. The main female decision-maker is assumed to be empowered to express her preferences more strongly and freely when the decision-making processes involves more female members. In this case, the impact of her risk preferences is likely to be more profound. To the best of my knowledge, this hypothesis has not been investigated before. Considering that rural households are constrained differently, we want to study both adoption and intensity of the HYV adoption. The results show no effect of the main female’s or male’s risk preferences on the adoption of HYV seeds. It is observed that the adoption decision is mostly determined by access and availability, which are captured by wealth, access to extension, and all-weather roads. We observe a positive association between the main female’s risk preference and the intensity of the adoption at higher levels of women’s participation in decision-making. As hypothesized, the conditionality of the effect of female risk preference on the level of female dominance in decision-making is observed. Given these results, we conclude that the main female’s risk preference matters for the intensity of HYV adoption. Given the potential risk of crop failure when adopting HYV, a risk-taking female is willing to risk her household’s short-run security to a potential learning effect from the new variety and potentially gain a higher income and more security in the long-run. The findings from this chapter contribute to the gender and technology adoption literature. The study interacts female risk preference with a proxy that measures female dominance in decision-making in an HYV adoption study. The results of our analysis of the role of the main female’s risk preferences in agricultural technology adoption signify the importance of a gendered lens to intra-household decision-making and risk preferences for future empirical studies. Nutrition sensitive agricultural development programs consider diversified farm production as a promising strategy to achieve better dietary outcomes for rural poor who are mostly subsistence oriented. In Chapter 4, we mainly question the viability of this strategy for rural Ethiopian households. Furthermore, considering that both household-level production diversification and consumption choices are outcomes of intra-household decision-making, we investigate the implications of women’s participation in the domains of decision-making for both outcomes. Thus, there are two objectives in Chapter 4. The first is to estimate the association between production diversification and household dietary diversity in various settings, and the second is to examine the association of female participation in decision-making with both livelihood outcomes separately. We find that on-farm diversification can be a feasible strategy to improve the diets of those who are mostly subsistence oriented and therefore highly dependent on agricultural production and those who live a great distance from markets. These results were obtained by employing and carefully interpreting multiplicative interaction models. We find that women’s participation in decision-making regarding which crops are grown is associated with more diversity both in terms of food groups and the number of different livestock and crop species produced. Nevertheless, we do not find any association when both evenness and richness of crop species are considered together as an indicator of diversification. This is due to the fact that sampled Ethiopian women are observed to be involved in decision-making on small plots, such as kitchen gardens, which contribute to the richness of species but not to the evenness in terms of the cultivated area. Furthermore, we estimate a positive association between women’s decision-making regarding household expenditures (that include food, clothing, and household and agricultural assets) and dietary diversity indicators. In light of these results, we conclude that development programs could promote production diversification in remote rural areas where markets and non-farm income are hardly accessible, but even then, the viability of this strategy is very questionable due to the marginal effects that demand mostly unrealistic changes. We recommend that more attention and effort be directed toward gender-inclusive social and economic development policies together with infrastructural and market development projects to achieve sustainable returns to nutrition. We contribute to the agriculture and nutrition literature by highlighting an important covariate, that is gendered decision-making, and calling attention to an in-depth approach to the analyses of this kind to better assist practitioners. Overall, the main contribution of this dissertation is that the gender dynamics in intra-household decision-making is an important socio-economic factor in the agriculture and nutrition framework. The findings prove that gender sensitive policies and programs will contribute to this component and sustain the linkages between agriculture and nutrition in rural areas. It is observed that women’s empowerment in farming and household-related decision-making positively contributes to various components like varietal adoption, diversification, and household-level dietary diversity in the agriculture and nutrition framework. However, extensive contextual knowledge is necessary to ensure that gender bias is correctly approached and treated to yield positive and sustainable outcomes in different societal settings.
Characterization of genetic variation among Ethiopian barley (Hoerdeum vulgare L.) genotypes
(2019) Abtew, Wosene Gebreselassie; Knierim, Andrea
Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) is a major cereal crop in Ethiopia and accounts for 8% of the total cereal production based on cultivation area. Farmers may face unpredictable rainfall and drought stress patterns such as terminal drought where rainfall ends before crops have completed their physiological maturity, which then poses a challenge to crop production. The absence of efficient weather forecasts and a lack of efficient communication channels for resource-poor farmers ask for the development of varieties that are robust to such irregularities. A goal of plant breeding for areas with variable climate and limited resources for agricultural inputs is to produce stable varieties with higher average yield across diverse environments and growing conditions. Genotype by environment (G x E) interactions, however, frequently interfere with the selection of widely adapted genotypes. Knowledge about the yield stability of existing Ethiopian barley varieties and landraces under changing environmental variables is important for the future development of barley varieties with high and stable yields. In addition, yield components are quantitative with substantial influence of environment. Yield components also compensate each other in trait correlation dynamics. Since grain yield is a more complex trait than its components, environmental effects and genotype-by-environment (G x E) interactions for grain yield are stronger than for its components. Therefore, indirect selection of yield components may be more efficient than selection on grain yield per se to obtain higher yielding and stable cultivars. A study, therefore, was initiated to 1) characterize the response of a diverse set of barley genotypes to different locations and variable planting dates and identify genotypes with wide adaptation and stable performance and/or genotypes with specific altitude and planting date 2) determine traits that contribute to high and stable yields across a range of different environments and planting dates 3) determine the pattern of population structure and genetic parameters among genotypes conserved in Ethiopian and German gene banks in for different period of time as well as currently growing in farmers’ field. In order to meet the objectives 18 genotypes were tested at four different sowing dates with 15 days interval in different locations (Ambo and Jimma) and years (2012 and 2013). The tested genotypes revealed a wide variation for both static and dynamic yield stability measures. Compared to improved cultivars, farmers landraces displayed higher average static stability and similar superiority indices (dynamic stability). These landraces are therefore a source of germplasm for breeding resilient barley cultivars. Staggered planting proved to be a useful method for evaluating genotype stability across environmental factors beyond location and season. In addition, we also noticed that compensatory relationship between kernels per spike and thousand kernel weight in landraces. Kernels per spike and number of fertile tillers can be proposed as robust traits in barley breeding for a wider adaptation as they had significant and consistent positive total effects on grain yield. In order to determine the pattern of population structure and genetic parameters among genotypes of different origin and gene banks, DNA samples were subject to double-digest by ApeK1 and Hind III enzymes. After sequencing, raw read was checked for major quality parameters. Sequence reads were then filtered for sequencing artifacts and low quality reads (preprocessing). The pre-processed reads were aligned to genome of barley cultivar Morex to call SNPs. Values of observed heterozygosity (Ho) ranged from 0.250 to 0.337 and were higher than the expected heterozygosity (He) that varied from 0.180 to 0.242 in genotypes of all origins. The inbreeding coefficient (FIS) values that ranged between -0.240 and -0.639 across the regions were also higher and negative suggesting existence of excess outcrossing than expected. Based on the inferred clusters by the ADMIXTURE, high Fst values were observed between clusters suggesting high genetic differentiation among the genotypes tested though differentiation was not based on location. In addition, genetic differentiation computed based on the predetermined location, altitude and source of genotypes suggested weak differentiation among the groups. These results indicate that, in Ethiopia, barley genetic variation between regions and altitudes were less pronounced than within region and altitude variations. This calls for the germplasm collection strategies to be cautious in considering location and altitude as a main factor of variation thus strategies should focus on exploiting the within region variation also for better germplasm conservation and utilization. The static yield stability of landrace has to be utilized by breeders for their wider recommendations for those farmers who cannot afford use of farm inputs and specific cultivars. In addition, the relative robustness as well as plasticity of traits sorted by the current study can be incorporated in the breeding strategy of barley in Ethiopia.
Classification and characterization of Ethiopian honey bees (Apis mellifera) based on morphometric, genetic and socio-economic analyses
(2022) Hailu, Teweldemedhn Gebretinsae; Hasselmann, Martin
Ethiopia is a major beekeeping country located in northeast Africa where several evolutionary lineages of Apis mellifera contact. A unique practice of honey bee colony marketing which involves broad agro-ecological zones (AEZs) is a developing trend in the northern part of the country such as Tigray region in association with apicultural development. Several studies based on classical morphometry on the Ethiopian honey bee subspecies classification debated from the unique Apis mellifera simensis to five others. Moreover, the genetic diversity, adaptation, gene flow and inter-relationships of the honey bees between AEZs were not disentangled – a challenge for planning sustainable apicultural development and conservation. Therefore, this study was conducted to elucidate the honey bees of Ethiopia in a context of apicultural transformation using integrated methods: morphometrics, genetics, colony market survey and metadata analyses on beekeeping development. The results of geometric morphometric analyses confirmed that Ethiopian honey bees represented by Apis mellifera simensis references belong to a separate lineage (Y) compared to A, O, M and C, and the present sample belonged to Y. This supported the hypothesis of five major honey bee lineages of the honey bee Apis mellifera. Similarly, a maximum likelihood phylogenetic tree analysis based on the mitochondrial COI-COII showed that most of the Ethiopian honey bees belong to lineage Y. However, a substantial proportion of the samples from the northern part of the country clustered with lineage O, which support the hypothesis that there is close contact between Y and O. Both geometric morphometry and classical morphometry differentiated the Ethiopian honey bees from all references including A. m. monticola, A. m. scutellata, A. m. jementica, A. m. adansonii but grouped with A. m. simensis. Genetically, five DraI haplotypes (COI-COII) were found to be randomly distributed across AEZs, indicating a substantial gene flow. Consequently, the level of genetic differentiation among the Ethiopian honey bee subpopulations defined by local areas and AEZs was generally low based on r7-frag nuclear marker, which is identified to be associated with adaptation to habitat elevation in East African honey bees. Similarly, nucleotide diversity consistently decreased with increasing elevation – indicating a reduced effective population size in the highlands. Results obtained from colony market survey showed that the honey bee swarms are reproduced in a few highlands and re-distributed throughout the region. Colony buyers have preferences of color and AEZ of origin of the honey bees, which led to a one-way flow and eroded the overall level of genetic differentiation. However, a marked differentiation was detected between the highland and lowland honey bees in relic communities where an allelic length polymorphism was observed as a signature of local adaptation. Altogether, Ethiopian honey bees belong to the lineage Y and subspecies A. m. simensis, and are characterized by a high level of gene flow enhanced by colony marketing; but a conserved signature of local adaptation to higher elevations was identified in less disturbed communities. Further studies based on genome-wide analyses and field experiments, focusing on undisturbed communities, can provide more insights into adaptation, admixture and management implications. Sustainable bee breeding and extension services that enable local beekeeping without colony trade and transportation will help to promote apiculture and genetic conservation.
Climate change adaptation, social networks, and agricultural extension reforms in Ethiopia
(2016) Tensay, Teferi Mequaninte; Bennewitz, Jörn
Research on the impact of climate change in sub-Saharan Africa shows that climate change is expected to cause an increased frequency of extreme events such as high temperature and rainfall intensity, droughts and floods, desertification, and spread of animal and human diseases. These extreme events are likely to have a negative impact on food security. Using the case of Ethiopia, this thesis analyses the role that social network and agricultural extension can play in enhancing farmers’ ability to adapt to climate change. The thesis builds on recent research, which has highlighted the role of social networks and extension in promoting adaptation to the negative impacts of climate change. Social networks between farmers can build community resilience and increase adaptation to climate change. They also affect technology adoption and climate change adaptation through social learning, joint evaluation of new technologies and collective action. Current research on social networks in Ethiopia has mainly focused on the effects of network size on technology adoption and there is no empirical study on which types of social networks matter the most, and how do such types of social networks matter for climate change adaptation. Agricultural extension is expected to facilitate climate change adaptation through training and education of farmers, enabling them to anticipate climate change and to update their knowledge, attitudes and adaptive capabilities in response to climate change. In addition to their well-established function of promoting technologies and natural resource management practices, agricultural extension services are expected to play new roles in building farmers’ social networks and supporting climate change adaptation strategies. There are various studies on agricultural extension reforms in Ethiopia, but there are still gaps in this literature, especially regarding the capacity of the extension service to promote adaptation to climate change and to promote social networks. The purpose of this thesis is, therefore, to fill these knowledge gaps and to contribute to the current debate on the dynamic links between climate change, social networks and extension reforms. The thesis combines quantitative and qualitative methods for analysis of three inter-related research topics. First, the thesis examines farmers’ vulnerabilities to climate change and the role of adaptation in increasing productivity at the household level. Second, it assesses how the different types of social networks are related with the adoption of sustainable land management practices for climate change adaptation. Third, by examining what works and what does not work well in the agricultural extension reforms in Ethiopia, the thesis investigates the interactions between climate change, social networks and extension reforms in Amhara region of Ethiopia. The thesis is based on a mixed methods approach. It combines a quantitative analysis, using World Bank data from a survey conducted in 2011 covering 1338 farmers. The analytical methods include a probit model, an OLS analysis and an endogenous switching regression model. Qualitative research methods included Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) combined with an individual scoring technique, and a Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis. The study on climate change adaptation found that the effects of climate change and adaptation practices differ across agro-ecological zones and adopter groups. In the kolla agro-ecologies, the major hazards were drought, floods, and migration. In contrast, snowfall, landslides and crop diseases were the main hazards in the dega and woyna-dega agro-ecologies. Erratic rainfall, soil erosion and livestock diseases were common hazards to all agro-ecologies. Households’ responses to the hazards were differed across the different agro-ecologies. In the kolla agro-ecologies, the most common coping strategies were reducing the number of daily meals, migration, livestock selling and utilization of irrigation. In the dega and woyna-dega agro-ecologies common coping strategies included: changing consumption patterns; adopting drought resistant crops (sorghum and millet); sale of chickens, eggs, sheep, goats, eucalyptus trees; soil conservation and tree planting; zero grazing and water harvesting. In all agro-ecologies, local institutions support communal adaptation strategies such as communal water harvesting and irrigation schemes, reforestation, rangeland enclosure and prevention of soil erosion. The empirical results also revealed that farmers who implemented climate change adaptation strategies have significantly increased their food productivity and food security, compared to farmers who did not implement such strategies. The findings regarding the relationship between social networks and sustainable land management revealed that networks with relatives have a positive impact on planting trees, but the impact of such networks on soil conservation was found to be negative. This finding can be interpreted as an incidence of self-interested behavior, since farmers may plant trees as a means of securing land holdings. When farmers are faced with the risk of losing their land to relatives, due to common heritage, they prefer planting trees to soil conservation. Farmers can reclaim all their investment costs by cutting trees, should they lose their land holding rights to relatives. In contrast, it would be difficult to regain soil conservation investment costs in this case. Friendship networks were found to be insignificant in both planting trees and soil conservation, while neighborhood ties only had a significant association with tree planting. This suggests the potential contributions of friendship and neighborhood networks, which can significantly affect sustainable land management practices, but may remain untapped. The analysis of extension conducted as part of this thesis suggests that a uniform reform approach, as pursued in Ethiopia, does not fit well with the diverse agro-ecologies and extension challenges in the country. While the number of service providers increased substantially, they still lack skills, incentives and resources, which affect their work motivation and job performance. Moreover, the planning, monitoring and evaluation system was found not to be very effective in regularly assessing what has been achieved at the farmers’ training centers and what remains to be done in the future. Similarly, there is room to improve partnerships and linkages of actors, especially by including key actors that are currently missing. Based on the above findings, this thesis derived the following policy implications: 1. The potential capacity of schools and religious organizations in supporting climate change adaptation should be tapped. The case study identified agricultural extension, health extension, NGOs, cooperatives, indigenous institutions (Iddir, Kirre, Jiggie, Debo, Iquib), microfinance institutions, schools, local governments, youth and women groups as key institutions providing rural services. However, extension organizations, cooperatives/unions, local governments and NGOs were the only institutions providing services relevant for climate change adaptation. Surprisingly, important local institutions (schools and religious organizations) did not have any short or long term plans to support climate change adaptation efforts despite the fact that they have the social capital to plan and implement some communal strategies such as terracing and planting trees on communal lands. 2. The regional and national policies should support local climate change adaptation strategies. The study showed that adaptation efforts should not be left to only farmers and local governments. Regional and national policies should support the local adaptation strategies. It was found that the absence of communal land and natural resource use policies was encouraging farmers to over utilize natural resources, and the long delay in land use rights (certification) was discouraging farmers from making long term investments on their land (e.g., tree planting and soil conservation). Therefore, the findings suggest that it would be useful to promote the introduction of communal land and natural resource use policy and a speedy land certification process. 3. The potential contributions of social networks as alternative channels of extension services should be tapped. The findings revealed that funds for agricultural extension are declining and extension managers should look for alternative source of funding and move away from a “one-size-fits-all” thinking to a “best fit” approach. It needs to become a priority for the current extension system to better understand what types of social networks matter most for technology adoption. 4. The findings also indicate that extension reforms should consider current agricultural challenges, especially climate change. In dega and woyna-daga agro-ecologies, the main challenges were getting information on climate change related hazards (rainfall and temperature), commercial marketing (cooperative development, price and new markets), post-harvest handling (drying and storage technique). In the kolla agro-ecologies, the major problems were lack of dry land farming methods (contour plowing, mulching, strip farming, summer fallow, seedbed preparation and planning in rows). So far, the extension system is not geared towards addressing these different challenges, which calls for aligning the extension reforms to the different local farming systems. 5. It can also be derived from the findings of this study that the regional government should design a new incentive system for the extension service. The case study showed that current incentives are inconsistent with the regional goal of promoting commercially oriented agriculture. Service providers in the region were found to lack the soft skills, incentives and resources to provide commercially oriented services. This finding calls for designing a new incentive system, which may include better salary, improved career prospects, and recognition as well as incentives for extra work. Such provisions will motivate and enable frontline service providers. 6. The governance and management structures of the Agricultural Development Partners’ Linkage Advisory Councils (ADPLACs) should be redesigned. The case study revealed that when measured against indicators such as information sharing and feedback, joint planning, monitoring, evaluation and implementation, the linkages between farmers, NGOs and research institutes were very weak. This calls for redesigning the governance and management structures of the Agricultural Development Partners’ Linkage Advisory Councils (ADPLACs), which was responsible for facilitating the partnership and linkages of extension actors in the region. 7. The findings of this thesis also suggest that the roles of NGOs and the private sector in the provision of extension service should be enhanced. The case study found that key actors such as the private sector and NGOs were missing from effective provision of extension services. The private sector and NGOs may have a comparative advantage in activities such as provision of improved seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, vaccination, deworming and artificial inseminations. NGO and private sector engagement in these areas will allow the regional government to free up and reallocate funds to its broader extension strategies such as development of new incentive schemes, education and training, technical advisory services, sustainable natural resource management practices and organizing farmers to link them with new markets.
Climate change, cattle herd vulnerability and food insecurity : adaptation through livestock diversification in the Borana pastoral system of Ethiopia
(2013) Megersa Bati, Bekele; Valle Zárate, Anne
Climate change is one of the dominant drivers of changing patterns in precipitation, rise in temperature and increasing frequency of extreme weather events that present a major challenge to livestock production in arid and semi-arid environments. In the Borana region of southern Ethiopia, the resulting reduction in the resilience of rangelands and heavy cattle losses associated with recurrent droughts pose serious challenges to cattle pastoralism. This study aimed at investigating regional manifestations of climate change and variability, and their impacts on cattle production and household food security, as well as the role of livestock species diversification as an adaptation strategy of Borana pastoralists in southern Ethiopia. The study involved the use of questionnaire surveys, participatory discussions and monthly meteorological data from 1970 to 2011. A total of 242 households sampled from Yabelo and Dire districts of the Borana zone were surveyed between August 2011 and December 2011. Data collection also included cattle herd histories, which were reconstructed for a period spanning five major droughts (between 1980 and 2011), and household-level livestock mortalities due to the 2010/2011 drought. With the use of 24-hour food recalls, data on individual dietary diversity were collected from 339 respondents during the beginning (September) and the end of the short rains (December). Besides descriptive analyses, a range of statistical models including general linear models, generalized linear mixed models, generalized additive models, ordered and binary logit models, and a proportional hazard regression model were applied to different data sets using SAS version 9.3. Herders? perceptions showed that rainfall has become more unpredictable with lower amounts and shorter durations, while temperature and the frequency of droughts have increased. The analysis of empirical data revealed a similar declining trend in annual precipitation and cattle holdings, while droughts became more frequent. A spectral analysis of annual rainfall series showed a quasi-periodic cycle of about 8.4 years for annual precipitation with recurring droughts every 4.2 dry years. The Borana herders suffered heavy cattle losses and experienced severe food insecurity in consequence of increased climate variability. Hence, the study showed that climate change and variability have impacts on cattle production, pointing to a critical future for the sustainability of cattle pastoralism in southern Ethiopia. Analysis of the data on food security showed a high prevalence of food insecurity (78%) and low dietary diversity, with the majority of the households (81%) merely consuming one to three food groups. A large number of the respondents consumed no fruits, vegetables (93%) and meat (96%), suggesting a high risk of micronutrient deficiencies given the declining trend in milk intake. Livestock diversification indeed significantly has improved dietary intake and household food security. Households with large herd sizes, farmland sizes and large family sizes, or households having off-farm income sources were also found to be better-off compared to their counterparts. Analysis of the data on livestock species composition showed that all of the respondents were keeping cattle, while 94%, 85% and 40% kept goats, sheep and camels, respectively. Recurrent droughts, bush encroachment and increased cattle herd vulnerability were among the major drivers of livestock diversification. Species diversity fulfilled a broad spectrum of the herders? livelihood priorities, of which milk production and cash revenues from live animal sales were of highest importance. Adaptability assessments based on a set of nine adaptive traits showed that camels had the highest adaptive capacity, followed by goats, while cattle were the least adapted species. Species vulnerability to drought also reflected the adaptability patterns with cattle being the most vulnerable to drought followed by sheep, and camels being the most tolerant species. In general, the present study showed that climate change and its variability posed a challenge to cattle production, with recurrent droughts causing enormous mortalities and worsening household food insecurity. The adaptation measure of herders through diversifying their herd composition was found to alleviate food insecurity and reduce vulnerability to the periodic climatic shocks. To further enhance herders? adaptive capacity, implementing adaptation strategies aimed at proactively reducing vulnerability to climate risks and enhancing ex-post risk management capacity are vitally important.
Dietary intake, nutritional status of lactating women and their 6-23-months-old children in Genta Afeshum District, Rural Ethiopia : adaptation and validation of calculator for inadequate micronutrient intake (CIMI)
(2020) Desalegn, Beruk; Frank, Jan
Religious fasting is one of the categories of dietary or food taboos, which may affect the dietary intake and nutritional status of individuals. In Ethiopia, about half of the population are followers of Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo religion, and approximately 250 days per annum are fasting days. In these fasting days, lactating and pregnant women and children are exempted from fasting. However, lactating and pregnant women fast and are not also happy to prepare non-fasting foods for their children during the fasting days due to fear of contamination of family food. Early identification of micronutrient deficiencies in Ethiopia are flouted, as most often the quantitative dietary data are not available. As a result, the hidden hunger might have not been addressed properly, where it remains high and persistent. Therefore, easy to use, less costly and applicable assessment tool which can estimate the quantitative dietary intake of an individual or a community is urgently needed to achieve the national and international goals set for eradicating malnutrition. The Calculator for Inadequate Micronutrient Intake (CIM) is a simple, easy-to-use, informative, web-based application of quantitative dietary assessment method, which was first developed in Indonesia for Indonesian population. It estimates energy and nutrient intake correctly, and identifies nutrient inadequacy according to FAO/WHO recommended nutrient intake (RNI) regarding age, sex and physiological stage. Thus, the present study was conducted with the aim of assessing and comparing the nutritional status and dietary intake of lactating women and their 6-23-months-old children in fasting and non-fasting periods, and to adapt and validate the CIMI program for Ethiopian population. This study was conducted in rural Genta Afeshum district, in Tigray, Ethiopia, where almost all people in the woreda are followers of Ethiopian Orthodox Christianity. A longitudinal study was conducted using575 and 522 lactating women and their 6-23-months-old children in the lent fasting and non-fasting. In the present study it was found out that the prevalence of underweight (BMI < 18.5 kg/m2) in fasting lactating women was high (50.6%) which is associated with maternal age, maternal illness within four weeks preceding the fasting survey, fasting status during their pregnancy and lactation period of their children included in this study. Additional predictor variables for maternal underweight were grandfathers‘ as household decision maker, use of non-improved water source, household aid experience and the absence of chicken in the household. The average number of meals, diet diversity, and animal source foods consumption scores were significantly higher in non-fasting compared to fasting periods, regardless of the fasting status (p < 0.001, p < 0.05 and p < 0.001, respectively). Whereas, 31.6–33.7%, 11.7–15.7% and 4.4–4.8% of the 6-23-months-old children in the study population were stunted, underweight and wasted, respectively. In the fasting period, the weight-for-length (WLZ) and length-for-age (LAZ) values for the 6-23-months-old children of non-fasting mothers were significantly higher (p < 0.05) than the children of the fasting mothers‘ group. Similarly, the median weight-for-age (WAZ) and diet diversity score (DDS) of children of fasting mothers were also significantly lower in fasting compared to non-fasting period. The proportion of the 6-23-months-old children who met the minimum acceptable diet (MAD) was small (2.3-6.7%) in the study population; however, this proportion was significantly (p < 0.001) higher in the non-fasting than fasting period in the children of fasting mothers. Age of the child, maternal fasting status during pregnancy and lactation periods, maternal education and occupation were associated with child underweight. Likewise, age of the child, colostrum intake status, maternal fasting status during pregnancy and lactation period and toilet presence in the household were associated with child stunting. But, maternal fasting status during lactation period and maternal education predicted wasting in the children precisely. The average energy, protein and almost all micronutrients intakes of children and women were lower in fasting compared to non-fasting period. At the same time, the prevalence of inadequate intakes of energy, protein and most micronutrients were higher in both the children and lactating women during fasting than non-fasting period. The result of this study revealed that the correlation coefficients for the average dietary nutrient intake calculated by CIMI and the reference software NutriSurvey (NS) were between 0.741-0.956 for the children and between 0.779-0.920 for the lactating women groups. As a conclusion, the dietary pattern and nutritional status of lactating women and their breastfed children are affected during the fasting period. Therefore, the existing multi-sectoral nutrition intervention strategies in Ethiopia should include religious institutions in a sustainable manner. CIMI adapted for the rural Ethiopian setting estimates the average nutrient intake accurately; and identifies inadequate micronutrient intake of individuals enabling enumerators to provide feedback and suggest improvements. Thus, CIMI can be used in Ethiopia, as a simple dietary assessment tool by nutrition and related researchers, policy makers, implementers and evaluators.
Drought impacts and related risk management by smallholder farmers in developing countries : evidence from Awash River Basin, Ethiopia
(2010) Zeller, Manfred; Keil, Alwin; Murendo, Conrad
Climate risk studies have largely neglected household coping and adaptation strategies. In this paper we analyze drought impacts, drought risk management, and resulting drought resilience in Awash River Basin of Ethiopia based on socio-economic data collected from 43 randomly selected Peasant Associations. We find that severe drought periods have led to a significant depression of crop yields and to widespread death of livestock in the past. Drought periods have drastically increased the proportion of food insecure households and lengthened the duration of food insecurity in the area. Since, with climate change, drought periods are predicted to become more frequent in this region in the future, the problem of food insecurity is likely to become even more severe. Ex-ante adaptation strategies are widely practised in Awash River Basin and include the storage of crop residues as fodder for livestock, the rearing of drought tolerant livestock, mixed cropping, the use of short duration crop varieties, and the adoption of soil and water conservation practices. Ex-post coping strategies utilized to manage the consequences of drought include the sale of assets and the reliance on consumption loans and support offered by informal networks. Therefore, suitable policies are urgently needed to strengthen farmers? capacity to adapt to and cope with drought. Training farmers in the production and conservation of livestock fodder as well as in soil and water conservation practices appear to be key policy options relevant in the area. Moreover, improving farmers? access to climate related information, especially drought forecasts, could improve the timely adoption of effective adaptation measures.
Optimizing community-based breeding for indigenous goat breeds in Ethiopia
(2016) Belete, Tatek Woldu; Valle Zárate, Anne
Ziegen sind für arme Kleinbauern in rauen und trockenen Regionen wesentliche Quellen für Fleisch, Milch, Dünger, Einkommen und soziale Sicherheit. Die Zahl der Ziegen in Äthiopien stieg im letzten Jahrzehnt deutlich schneller an als die Zahl der Schafe und Rinder. Trotz des derzeitig starken Anstiegs, ist der Beitrag der Ziegen zur nationalen Fleischproduktion sowie zu den Exporteinnahmen gering. Zusätzlich blieb die Schlachtausbeute der lokalen Ziegen im letzten Jahrzehnt unter dem ostafrikanischen und dem Weltdurchschnitt. Langsame Wachstumsraten der Ziegen, hohe Sterblichkeitsraten und geringe Verkaufsraten zählen zu den größten Herausforderungen für die kleinbäuerliche Ziegenhaltung in Äthiopien. Ein vielversprechender Ansatz, um einige dieser Einschränkungen zu überwinden, ist die Gestaltung eines nachhaltigen, dörflichen Zuchtprogramms (CBBP), das sowohl lokale Rassen als auch Merkmalspräferenzen der Landwirte und regionale Zuchtorganisationen berücksichtigt. Unverzichtbar für die Gestaltung und Umsetzung der CBBPs ist einerseits das Verständnis der vielfältigen Funktionen der Ziegen über die verschiedene Produktionssysteme hinweg und die Identifizierung der Zuchtzielmerkmale und deren relative ökonomische Bedeutung andererseits. Zur Bestimmung der Zuchtzielmerkmale und der Feststellung des jeweiligen ökonomischen Wertes wurden bislang Choice Experiments (CE) eingesetzt. Derzeit sind jedoch nur begrenzt Informationen, die ein umfassendes Verständnis der Merkmalspräferenzen aus Sicht der Produzenten und des Marktes bieten, verfügbar. Nachhaltige Programme für eine genetische Verbesserung fokussieren zusätzlich nicht nur auf die technische Umsetzbarkeit, sondern analysieren auch die organisatorischen Aspekte des Züchtungsschemas unter bestimmten Rahmenbedingungen. Das übergeordnete Ziel dieser Studie ist es, zur Gestaltung eines optimierten dörflichen Ziegenzuchtprogramms, welches die vielfältigen Funktionen der Ziegen, die Merkmalspräferenzen der Produzenten, die Marktanforderungen, die organisatorischen Rahmenbedingungen und die vielfältigen Ziegenproduktionssysteme berücksichtigt, beizutragen. Die spezifischen Ziele sind (i) die Bestimmung der Faktoren, die den Beitrag der Ziegenhaltung zum ökonomischen Erfolg und der Nahrungsmittelvielfalt des Haushaltes in drei Ziegenproduktionssystem beeinflussen, (ii) die Evaluierung der Ziegenzuchtziele und der ökonomischen Werte der Merkmale, basierend auf offenbarten und angegebenen Präferenzen und (iii) die Bestimmung der wichtigsten Interessensvertreter, organisatorischen Netzwerke und weiteren Organisationselementen und deren Einfluss auf die Einrichtung und das erfolgreiche Betreiben einer dörflichen Ziegenzüchtung. Die Studie wurde in den Bezirken Abergele, Konso und Meta Robi in Äthiopien durchgeführt. Diese repräsentieren aride agro-pastorale (AAP), semi-aride agro-pastorale (SAAP) und gemischte Ackerbau-Viehhaltungs-Systeme des Hochlands (HMCL). Die Interviews umfassten 180 Haushalte, die mittels teilstrukturierter Fragebögen durchgeführt wurden. Die Befragung zielte auf das Einkommen und die Kosten der bedeutendsten landwirtschaftlichen Aktivitäten sowie die Ernährungsvielfalt der Haushalte ab. Bruttogewinn (GM) und Nettogewinn (unter Berücksichtigung materieller und immaterieller Vorteile) wurden als Indikatoren für den ökonomischen Erfolg der Ziegenhaltung verwendet. Zur Analyse der Faktoren, die den ökonomischen Erfolg der Ziegenhaltung beeinflussen, wurde ein lineares gemischtes Modell verwendet. Eine ordinale Regression wurde zur Prognose der Effekte der sozioökonomischen Variablen auf die Ernährungsvielfalt der Haushalte benutzt. Mittels eines Choice Experiments, das 360 Ziegenhalter umfasste, wurden deren Merkmalspräferenzen über die verschiedenen Ziegenproduktionssysteme hinweg bestimmt. Um die offenbarten Präferenzen (RP) der Käufer für Ziegenmerkmale zu verstehen, wurden außerdem Marktdaten von 796 Ziegenverkäufen erfasst. Zusammenhänge zwischen Eigenschaften und Preise der Ziegen wurden durch hedonische Modellierungen bewertet, während ökonomische Werte der Merkmale inklusive des CE durch ein Conditional Logit (CL) Modell beurteilt wurden. Der Teilnutzwert eines Merkmals gibt die relative Wichtigkeit eines Merkmals an. Er wurde basierend auf den impliziten Preisen, die Landwirte für eine Verbesserung des Merkmals bereit waren zu bezahlen (WTP) berechnet. Die Ökonometrie-Software NLOGIT 4.0 wurde zur Analyse der CE und RP Daten verwendet. Die Organisation kleinbäuerlicher Ziegenzucht von dörflicher bis zu nationaler Ebene wurde auf Basis von sechs Fokusgruppen-Diskussionen mit 68 Ziegenhaltern, Befragungen wichtiger Akteure (aus zehn öffentlichen und sieben privaten Instituten) und der sozialen Netzwerkeanalyse (SNA) der Ziegenhaltung und Marketingstrukturen ermittelt. Die Daten aus den Befragungen wichtiger Akteure wurden mittels deskriptiver Statistik analysiert. Social Network Visualizer (SocNetV) wurde zur Visualisierung der sozialen Netzwerkstrukturen verwendet. Ziegenhalter die in einer rauen Region leben, repräsentiert durch das AAP System, hatten signifikant geringere Ziegenverkäufe als diejenigen in SAAP und HMCL Systemen. Die Wechselwirkung zwischen Herdengröße und Produktionssystem beeinflusste signifikant (P<0.001) den Nettogewinn der Ziegenhaltung. Die Steigerung des Nettogewinns durch die Haltung größerer Herden war im AAP System, aufgrund größerer materieller und immaterieller Vorteile der Ziegen in diesem System, höher. Im Gegensatz dazu hatten Ziegenhalter im HMCL System höhere Ziegenverkaufsraten und tendierten dazu Zicklein (< 1 Jahr) eher zu verkaufen als ausgewachsene Ziegen. Der Effekt der Herdengröße als Einflusswert für die Ernährungsvielfalt des Haushaltes war in keinem der untersuchten Produktionssystemen signifikant. Dennoch wurde eine signifikante, positive Korrelation zwischen dem Einkommen aus der Ziegenhaltung und der Ernährungsvielfalt in AAP Systemen festgestellt, die auf eine indirekte Rolle der Ziegenhaltung für die Ernährungssicherheit hinweist. Ergebnisse der offenbarten und angegebenen Präferenzstudien zeigten, dass Ziegenhalter in allen Produktionssystemen großen Nutzen von großen Körpergrößen der Ziegen ableiten und Käufer einheitlich höhere Preise für Ziegen mit höherem Körpergewicht bezahlten. Im AAP System wurden hohe ökonomische Werte für Anpassungsmerkmale wie Krankheitsresistenz sowohl für Böcke als auch für Zicken bestimmt. Ziegenzüchter in diesem System waren bereit, für Böcke mit hohem Krankheitsresistenzvermögen nahezu dreimal so viel zu bezahlen wie Züchter in SAAP und HMCL Systemen. Dieses Merkmal wurde jedoch in der Selektion von weiblichen Zuchtziegen im HMCL System nicht als maßgeblicher Faktor betrachtet. Ziegenhalter im HMCL System waren bereit für Zicken mit hoher Zwillingsrate mehr zu bezahlen als Ziegenhalter in den AAP und SAAP Systemen. Ergebnisse der Zuchtorganisationsanalyse zeigten, dass eigene und dörfliche Herden die Hauptquellen für die Ziegenzüchtung in allen Regionen sind. Im AAP System haben jedoch auch NGOs und Forschungszentren Zuchtziegen für die Ziegenhalter gestellt. Die ermittelten bäuerlichen Organisationen, die mit Ziegenhaltung und Marketing verknüpft sind, beinhalteten auch multifunktionale Genossenschaften sowie bäuerliche Entwicklungsgruppen und Netzwerke. Die multifunktionalen Genossenschaften im AAP System waren in mehr Marketingaktivitäten eingebunden als in den SAAP und HMCL Systemen. Wichtige Akteure wie Forschungsinstitute und NGOs fehlten im HMCL System. Die SNA zeigte, dass die Beratungsbeamten der Gebiete die höchsten Werte für Grad und Verbundenheit der Zentralität haben, was auf deren vertrauensvolle Beziehung mit den Ziegenhaltern und die beste Erreichbarkeit hindeuten. Die höheren materiellen und immateriellen Vorteile der Ziegen im AAP System verbunden mit höheren ökonomischen Werten, aufgrund der höheren Bewertung der Anpassungsmerkmale, weisen auf die Notwendigkeit der Einbeziehung von Überlebensmerkmalen zusätzlich zu den Leistungsmerkmalen hin für die Formulierung der Zuchtziele in rauen, trockenen Regionen. In den gemischten Pflanzenbau-Viehhaltungs-Systemen ist die Erzeugung von Bareinnahmen durch erhöhte Ziegenverkaufsraten die herausragende Priorität der Ziegenhalter und die Zwillingsrate der Ziegen hat einen hohen Stellenwert. In diesem System sollte die Verbesserung der Fortpflanzungsfähigkeit und die Steigerung der Anzahl der vermarktungsfähigen Ziegen anvisiert werden. Jedoch erschweren die geringe institutionelle Präsenz und die unwesentliche ökonomische Rolle der Ziegen in HMCL und SAAP Systemen die Umsetzung des CBBP wohingegen die aktive institutionelle Unterstützung und die besseren Vermarktungsmöglichkeiten in den AAP Systemen ein Ziegen CBBP vielversprechender macht. Vor allem Beratungsbeamte der Bezirke sollten aufgrund ihrer herausragenden Rolle in den sozialen Netzwerken eine Rolle als Wegbereiter und Verbindungsperson bei der Gründung und im Betreiben der CBBPs übernehmen.
Public agriculture extension and information and communication technologies : a case study in South Wollo, Ethiopia
(2020) Birke, Fanos Mekonnen; Knierim, Andrea
Effective agriculture extension services require a continuous transformation and introduction of new and effective interventions, approaches, methods, and tools. Information Communication Technologies (ICT) are given immense expectations to address some of the challenges of agriculture extension by improving the capacity and effectiveness of extension advisors through new modes of communication and easier ways of accessing up-to-date and relevant information. There is ample knowledge on adoption rates, use intensity, and impact of ICTs for agriculture extension, specifically in a farmers’ context. However, there is limited research on experts’ perceptions of ICT’s usefulness, as well as organizational dimensions that facilitate ICT use. In particular, the interdependency between ICT tools and the social and organizational aspects in the context of agriculture extension is poorly understood. This thesis aims to provide evidence on the implementation process of ICT initiatives in agriculture extension organizations and their use. The three specific objectives of the thesis are the following: (i) to provide empirical evidence on the complex interaction of social and technical actors and their assemblage to set up an ICT-based initiatives called Agricultural Knowledge Centers (AKCs); (ii) to provide empirical evidence on experts’ perceptions and their use of ICTs in agriculture extension offices; and (iii) to bring insights on organizational characteristics that facilitate or hinder the learning of an organization for successfully applying ICTs in agriculture extension services. This thesis analyzes the innovation process of ICT-based initiatives in agriculture extension by building on the definition of innovation as an alignment of hardware (technical devices, bodily skills), software (mode of thinking, discourse, perceptions) and orgware (rules, structure, and standards). The thesis adopted a research approach that can be broadly labeled as an interpretive research approach that allows for understanding a phenomenon by interpreting stakeholders’ and research participants’ experiences. It relied on a case study methodology and review of existing knowledge on ICTs in agriculture extension. The case studies are AKCs located in agriculture extension offices in South Wollo, in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. The research-for-development project, ‘Livestock and Irrigation Value Chains for Ethiopian Smallholders’ (LIVES) from the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), piloted AKCs to contribute to the government’s effort to strengthen the extension system. This thesis contains three empirical chapters in addition to the introduction and general discussion. The first empirical chapter analyzes the process of establishing AKCs in five extension organizations in South Wollo by capturing the role of human actors (employees of the project, experts in the extension offices, and the ICT managers) and the role of the non-human actors (computers, internet connectivity, texts, and office infrastructure) in carrying out the AKC initiative. The Actor Network Theory (ANT) framed the analysis of the results. The findings show how people and technology came together to establish AKCs that provide access to digital knowledge. Conditions that contributed to creating and stabilizing the AKC actor network were the following: (i) the presence of an actor to facilitate the process, (ii) alignment of interests among actors in the network, (iii) building the capacities and motivation of the various actors to execute their roles, and (iv) availability of computers with strong internet connections. The second empirical chapter analyzes extension experts’ perceptions of ICT’s usefulness for their extension job and how they used ICTs in four AKCs in South Wollo. The three concepts from the Theory of Planned Behavior: attitude, social norms, and perceived behavioral control framed the analysis of the results. Extension experts had a positive attitude towards the usefulness of ICTs for personal benefits. However, they did not perceive ICTs as useful for searching and exchanging agricultural information because the rigid extension approach used in their organizations allows primarily for specific printed knowledge resources. The results show that while access to the ICT hardware is a prerequisite, it is not a guarantee that extension experts will apply ICTs for professional use. For ICTs to be used by agriculture extension experts, there needs to be greater flexibility for experts’ response to farmers’ needs and favorable conditions that facilitate self-initiated knowledge-seeking behavior among extension experts. The third empirical chapter analyzes the organizational characteristics identified in the existing literature for accelerating or hindering ICT use for agriculture extension. The qualitative review of 49 articles highlights that most of the scientific studies focus on individuals’ characteristics to explain ICT use and only partially investigate organizational aspects. Organizational characteristics identified in these 49 articles were further analyzed using the seven dimensions of the learning organization concept. The analysis showed that opportunities for training and creating structures to encourage learning were prominent characteristics limiting or supporting ICT use. However, the literature documented no evidence on characteristics such as collaboration, leadership style, and empowerment for creating a shared vision for improving services via ICT use. The review results illustrate the importance of strategizing ICT use in agricultural advisory organizations and following principles of organizational learning for capacity development at an individual, team, and organizational level. Based on the three empirical chapters, chapter five discusses that optimal ICT use for agriculture extension can be achieved when the introduction of technology is supported by new rules and organizational structures, and when the intended purpose fits the shared way of thinking and the future vision employees have for their extension work. This section highlights that successful ICT use in agriculture extension organizations requires not only the technical devices, individuals’ attitudes, or institutions, but also the alignment of all the three dimensions. Therefore, aiming to improve the extension services only through the provision of ICT devices would be too simplistic; it ignores the complex interaction of the various components. This thesis makes the following recommendations for the design and implementation of future ICT-based initiatives in Ethiopia and other countries with a similar context: (i) a project initiator should create awareness on the purpose of ICT for agriculture extension and develop the capacity of targeted beneficiaries on ICT use; (ii) organizations that aim to utilize ICT should create organizational conditions that facilitate learning at the levels of the individual, team, and organization; (iii) development projects and programs should recognize and stimulate interaction between innovation components to successfully implement ICT in agriculture extension and ensure their utilization; and (iv) the government should create an enabling environment that provides support structures for knowledge sharing and information exchange to respond to farmers’ needs.
Smallholder adaptation through agroforestry : agent-based simulation of climate and price variability in Ethiopia
(2021) Yismaw, Habtamu Demilew; Berger, Thomas
Climate variability has been posing formidable policy challenges in Ethiopia by deteriorating rural livelihoods. Climate variability-induced shocks have a profound impact on smallholder farmers welfare both in the short run via reducing production and increasing output prices and in the long run by depleting productive farm assets and leading them to a poverty trap. However, the impact of shocks on smallholders welfare depends on their choice of adaptation and coping measures to deal with them, which are in turn farmer-specific. This thesis applied an integrated econometric analysis and farm-level simulations to assess smallholder farmers adaptation and coping measures under extreme climate and price variability in Ethiopia. The thesis provides a special focus on the role of investment in small-scale agroforestry to curb the adverse effects of shocks. Drought, hailstorms, pests, and crop diseases are identified as the most frequent and intense climate variability-induced shocks in Ethiopia. Smallholders dominant adaptation and coping measures for each shock are identified using logistic principal component analysis (LPCA). The application of dimensionality reduction of binary data using LPCA to select smallholder farmers dominant adaptation and coping measures is unique to this study. Results show that planting stress-resistant crops and varieties, early planting, increasing seed rate, and soil and water conservation practices are the dominant ex-ante adaptation measures. Whereas selling livestock, selling assets, reducing consumption, borrowing and replanting are the dominant ex-post coping measures. In what follows, household-specific drivers of smallholder farmers choice of adaptation and coping measures are disentangled using multivariate probit regression (MVP) for each shock. Gender, knowledge and experience, participation in rural institutions, social networks, resource endowments, and their shock experience and expectation are the significant drivers of farmers choices of ex-ante adaptation and ex-post coping measures. Results suggest that smallholder farmers choice of measures to deal with climate variability-induced shocks is highly distinctive and depends on their socioeconomic settings, experience and knowledge, and their interactions with the environment. Correlation analysis both in LPCA and MVP results show that most of the measures farmers choose are complementary, which implies that no single measure is robust and works best for all farmers. Farmers invest more on ex-post measures than ex-ante measures. Those who invest on tree perennials as ex-ante drought measures are less likely to use severe measures such as selling livestock and other assets in the aftershock. The econometric analysis in the first part of the thesis establishes a descriptive analysis of smallholder farmers behavioral responses to climate variability-induced covariate shocks. This captures the behavior of farmers in the status quo. However, it does not tell us much about how farmers would behave in different future circumstances, especially with extreme climate and price variability. This requires a prescriptive and descriptive approach with a detailed investigation of farmers behavior down to the plot level. To achieve this objective, the second part of the thesis applies household-level micro-simulation to analyze ex-ante planning and ex-post responses to future climate and price variability, focusing on the role of smallholder farmers’ investment in woodlot perennials to their livelihoods. The agent-based simulation package - Mathematical Programming-based Multi-Agent Systems (MPMAS) is used for this purpose to capture investment, production, and consumption decisions at the farm household level. A farm decision model representing smallholder farmers in the Upper Nile Basin in Ethiopia is developed accordingly. The farmers in the area are known for their integrated crop-livestock system, and a unique Acacia Dicurrens based emph{taungya} system in the country. This thesis shows a first-time use of an agent-based modeling approach representing the acacia-based emph{taungya} system in the Upper Nile Basin in Ethiopia, which is another contribution of this study. The farm decision model is validated using empirical data and interactive sessions with experts. Another methodological novelty of this study is developing and using interactive web applications to validate the farm decision model with experts remotely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Interactive model validation is not new in agent-based modeling using MPMAS. However, the web-based R Shiny app and an integrated web-based expert survey questionnaire app is an original contribution of this study. The study also uses Zoom virtual conferencing to record all interactive validation sessions with experts. Two simulation experiments were designed to quantify the effects of shocks and price variability on agents livelihoods. The High-Performance Computing platform in Baden Wurttemberg (bwHPC) is used to run simulation experiments for this study. The first simulation experiment aims at measuring the effects of shocks on agents livelihoods and the effectiveness of ex-ante planning to curb the adverse effects of these shocks. The application of model features on agents ex-ante preparation for the possible occurrence of shocks within the farm decision model is a new development in this study. Accordingly, the frequent and intense crop and tree diseases in the area - potato late blight and acacia seedling disease are introduced as shocks in the model. Simulation results show that both potato late blight and acacia seedling disease reduce annual per capita discretionary income significantly and forcing some poor resource agents to fail to fulfill minimum non-food expenditure. The trade-off in agents land-use decisions between trees and crops by agents shows that they prefer to plant trees than crops as an ex-ante planning strategy for shocks. The second simulation experiment aims at examining the effect of long-run expected price changes, mainly on land-use decisions of agents in the model. Four future price scenarios are designed, and the results are compared with the baseline to examine the effect on agents discretionary income and land-use decisions. The purpose of this simulation experiment is to see if there is a deviance from croplands to woodlots and vise versa based on long-run changes in expected prices. Simulation results show that agents are highly responsive to changes in expected prices in the long run, except for the expected price of bamboo. In cases where there is a decrease in the expected price of acacia charcoal or an increase in the expected price of crops or both, results show that agents will go back to potatoes and wheat-dominated production systems instead of the acacia-dominated production system . This study suggests that supporting farmer adaptation to climate variability-induced shocks should focus on policy interventions related to crop and land management activities. Policy interventions should also focus on building the household asset base to boost farmers coping ability and resilience to shocks. Moreover, results suggest that robust climate adaptation and mitigation interventions should take the heterogeneity of farmers into account. Furthermore, both econometrics and farm-level simulation analyses show the importance of planting trees as a crucial adaptation strategy. Findings suggest that investment in woodlot perennials is an essential adaptation strategy for smallholder farmers with scarce resource settings and should be promoted and scaled to a broader area in the region.
The impact of agricultural innovations on poverty, vulnerability and resilience to food insecurity of smallholders in Ethiopia
(2022) Biru, Wubneshe Dessalegn; Zeller, Manfred
Ethiopia has adopted agriculture centered growth strategies over the last three decades that give more emphasis on improving agricultural production and productivity with the ultimate goal to transform the country’s economy. The strategies have mainly aimed at improving smallholder agriculture through introducing improved technologies intended to boost agricultural production and thus alleviate poverty and food insecurity. Although agriculture centered growth strategies contributed to sustained growth in the country over the last two decades, the benefits of growth have not been evenly distributed with observed rising income inequality and a still significant proportion of smallholders remaining under the poverty line. Similarly, despite considerable yield progress over the last three decades due to the introduction of improved inputs Ethiopian farmers’ yield gap compared with other developing countries is quite high. Moreover, the frequent occurrences of shocks such as drought and flooding adversely affect smallholders substantially and thereby exacerbate the existing poverty and food insecurity problems in the country. This thesis applied different econometric techniques to analyze the impact of the adoption of multiple agricultural technologies on crop yield, poverty, vulnerability, and resilience to food insecurity in Ethiopia. The study uses four rounds of household level panel data collected between 2012 and 2019 to assess the link between the adoption of the different combinations of five productivity-enhancing technologies: chemical fertilizer, improved seed, pesticide, and soil and water conservation practices: terracing and contour ploughing on consumption, poverty, vulnerability, and yields of smallholders. To solve the endogeneity problem in the regression models, we applied two-stage multinomial endogenous switching regression model combined with the Mundlak approach. Additionally, the thesis examines the role of the adoption of chemical fertilizer and improved seeds on household resilience to food insecurity amid the occurrence of adverse shocks. The findings are presented in three chapters of the cumulative thesis (Chapters two to four). Chapter two analyses the effect of productivity enhancing technologies and soil and water conservation measures and their possible combinations on consumption, poverty, and vulnerability to poverty. Per capita consumption expenditure for food and other essential non-food items, such as clothing and footwear, is used as a proxy variable to measure poverty. Using the national poverty line in 2011 prices, sample households are grouped into poor and non-poor households and the movement of sample households in and out of poverty between 2012 and 2016 is analyzed using a poverty transition matrix. By employing the ordered logit model, the study additionally examined the dynamics of poverty and vulnerability as well as their drivers. The results show that the adoption of the different combinations of agricultural technology sets including single technology adoption has considerable impacts on consumption expenditure and the greatest impact is attained when farmers combine multiple complementary inputs. Similarly, we find that the likelihood of households remaining poor or vulnerable decreased with adoption. In addition, the study revealed that poorer households are the least adopters of the technology combinations considered in the study, thereby being the least to benefit from adoption. We, therefore, conclude that the adoption of multiple complementary technologies has substantial dynamic benefits that improve the poverty and vulnerability status of households, and given the observed low level of adoption rates, we suggest that much more intervention is warranted, with a special focus on poorer and vulnerable households, to ensure smallholders get support to improve their input use. Chapter three assesses the impacts of multiple technology adoption on the yield of Ethiopia’s four staple crops, namely teff, wheat, maize and barley. Regarding the empirical estimation, we specified yield equations for each of the four crops and five to six possible input combinations that are included in the analysis indicating the presence of slope effect of technology choice other than the intercept of the outcome equations. The findings suggest that the application of two or more complementary inputs is considerably linked with higher maize, teff, barley, and wheat yield. Specifically, barley yield is highest for farmers who have adopted a combination of at least three of the technologies. Maize producers are the largest beneficiaries of the technologies. The impact of the technology choice sets tends to have an inconclusive effect on wheat and teff yields. However, a significant yield gap in all of the four crops was observed. Socio-economic characteristics of the household head such as age and gender as well as the household’s access to infrastructure and spatial characteristics of the household are other important determinants of crop yield. The implications are that more publicly funded efforts could be worthwhile for easing adoption constraints, which would in turn help smallholders to increase their crop yields that indirectly improve their livelihood. Chapter four aims to identify the determinants of household resilience to food insecurity which is the household’s ability to absorb or cope with the negative effects of shocks and bounce back to at least their initial livelihood status and assess its role on future household food security when hit by adverse shocks. Furthermore, the study analyzes the role of single or joint adoption of chemical fertilizer and improved seed on household food security. The household food security indicators used in the analysis are dietary diversity and per capita food consumption and uses data from the last three waves out of our four survey rounds. In terms of empirical estimation, the household resilience capacity index is estimated by combining factor analysis and structural equation modeling. Then different regression models are executed to assess the causal link between technology adoption and resilience capacity and household food security indicators in the face of adverse shocks. Our findings reveal that the most important pillars contributing to the building of household resilience capacity are assets followed by access to basic services. We find that the initial level of the household resilience score is significantly and positively associated with future household food security status. Moreover, the results reveal that the adoption of chemical fertilizer and improved seed is significantly and positively associated with household resilience capacity index, dietary diversity, and food consumption over time. Shocks such as drought appear to be significant contributors to the loss of household food security. Overall, it is revealed that the adoption of improved inputs significantly and positively increases household food security. However, the results show no evidence that supports the current level of adoption that helps households to shield themselves from the adverse effects of shocks. Finally, this study gives insights on examining the impacts and impact pathways of adoption of improved technologies on smallholder welfare which guide decision-makers for intervention as well as pave a way for future research that contributes to the fight against rural poverty and food insecurity. This thesis also concludes that public intervention in terms of investment in providing improved agricultural practices is crucial in improving rural livelihood, but it has to be inclusive and provide opportunities for the poor and vulnerable.
The influence of land use and cover changes on the pastoral rangeland systems of southern Ethiopia : how much woody cover is enough?
(2014) Mohammed, Hasen Yusuf; Treydte, Anna C.
The Borana rangelands in southern Ethiopia are facing deterioration caused by intensification of grazing and woody plant encroachment, resulting in marked reductions in pastoral production. This process affects the food security and livelihoods of the Borana pastoral people negatively. Woody plant encroachment might result in an increase in carbon (C) storage in these rangelands, which represents an important aspect for climate change mitigation potentials. However, it is unclear how much C is currently stored in the above-and belowground vegetation biomass and in the soils of these rangeland ecosystems and how grazing intensity and woody cover influence soil or ecosystem C-stocks. The research work presented in this thesis aimed at developing tools to estimate the aboveground woody biomass C stocks. It describes the structure of semiarid savanna vegetation in different grazing regimes at various levels of woody encroachment, examines changes in woody plant encroachment, and provides field-based quantification methods and tools to derive site-based estimates of above- and belowground C pools. The thesis also aimed at assessing the influence of grazing on herbaceous above- and belowground biomass C stocks, soil organic carbon (SOC) and total soil nitrogen (TSN) to estimate possible increases in ecosystem C stocks by long term reduction of grazing intensity (e.g., low livestock density and seasonal grazing) at various levels of woody plant encroachment. A long-term temporal satellite imagery over the last 37 years and GIS mapping aided by ground truthing was used to investigate vegetation cover changes. In the field, data was collected to analyze vegetation attributes such as composition and structure under different grazing regimes and woody encroachment sites. Herbaceous species were destructively harvested to quantify the biomass and C stocks in the herbaceous vegetation community. Allometric tree biomass models were developed by destructively harvesting eight woody species to indirectly quantify the woody biomass and C stocks. Total soil nitrogen and SOC stocks in the different grazing management systems and woody encroachment levels were assessed from soil cores collected within 0- 40 cm soil depth. The performance of allometric biomass models as expressed as a goodness of fit (adj r2) depended on the species and biomass components estimated. The allometric models were highly accurate for large woody species such as A. mellifera, A. bussei, and A. etabaica. The most important single models predictor variable identified was stem basal circumference for tall shrubs with more or less open canopy structure. Meanwhile, for tall shrubs with closed and umbrella-like canopy structures, pairs of canopy volume and stem basal circumferences were more reliable predictors. It was further shown that, by using canopy volume as a standalone predictor variable, biomass can still be accurately predicted for shrubs whose growth form comprise discrete canopy clumps with multiple stems (e.g., A. oerfota). Vegetation cover analysis using temporal Landsat imageries from 1976 to 2012 revealed that areas covered by shrub and tree savanna (open savanna types) in the 1970s declined from 45% to 9%, while heavily encroached areas (bushland thickets and bushed savanna) increased from 22% to 61% during this time interval. The abundance of total and the regenerative woody plants (< 1 m height) were high in lower woody encroachment sites but significantly reduced at heavily woody encroachment sites. At all levels of woody encroachment enclosures significantly increased total woody plant density, especially the proportion of woody plants in < 1 m height size class compared to the open rangelands. Estimated total aboveground biomass C stocks varied significantly between woody encroachments levels, with total aboveground biomass C stocks ranging from 2 Mg ha-1 in the low encroachment site to 9 Mg ha-1 in heavy encroachment sites. Enclosures significantly raised the herbaceous biomass C stocks, with enclosures containing 50% more herbaceous aboveground biomass C stocks than openly grazed land. However, the response of herbaceous aboveground biomass C stocks to grazing was also strongly influenced by the woody encroachment characteristics including woody density, canopy cover, species composition and other specific traits of woody species. Mean total SOC stock in the 0 - 40 cm soil depth ranged from 30 Mg ha-1 in the openly grazed soils at the high woody encroachment site to 81 Mg ha-1 in the enclosure soils at the low encroachment site ha-1. Soil OC and TSN did not differ in the enclosure at heavily encroached sites but were two times as high in enclosures compared to openly grazed soils at low encroached sites. Soil OC was positively related to TSN and soil cation exchange capacity (CEC), but negatively to sand content. Contrary to expectations, SOC stocks did not uniformly follow the pattern of increasing aboveground biomass C stocks with increasing woody encroachment. Rather, it seemed to be influenced by variations in soil characteristics across the Borana rangelands. The study highlights the influence of woody encroachment and reduction of grazing pressure on ecosystem C stocks. The allometric models developed by this study can serve as a tool for future biomass and C sequestration studies in semiarid regions of east Africa. The information presented on the ecosystem C stocks by this thesis could help integrate the effects of grazing and vegetation cover dynamics on the rangeland C storage. An understanding of these interactions are deemed necessary to develop a sound rangeland management policy that can link the C storage potential of the rangelands to global climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies through establishing a viable mechanism of payment for ecosystem services.
Using panel data to estimate the effect of rainfall shocks on smallholders food security and vulnerability in rural Ethiopia
(2009) Zeller, Manfred; Demeke, Abera Birhanu
Ethiopia's agriculture is predominantly rainfed and hence any irregularity in weather conditions has adverse welfare implications. Using panel data, this paper analyzes the effect of rainfall shocks on Ethiopian rural households' food security and vulnerability over time while controlling for a range of other factors. To this end, we generated a time-variant household food security index which is developed by principal components analysis. Based on the scores of the index, households were classified into relative food security groups and their socioeconomic differences were assessed. The exploratory results show that compared to the less secured households, the more secured ones have male and literate household heads, tend to have a greater number of economically active household members, own more livestock, experience better rainfall outcome, participate in equb (a local savings group), and use chemical fertilizer. Fixed effects regression was used to identify the factors which affect the score's variability and the results indicate that rainfall shock is an important factor affecting households' food security over time. It is also noted that household size, head's age, participation in equb, off-farm activities, use of fertilizer, and livestock ownership positively and significantly affect the food security score. Results from multinomial logistic regression model reinforce the fixed effects regression results by showing the strong association of persistent food insecurity and vulnerability with adverse rainfall shock. A number of conclusions can be drawn from the results which are useful for policymakers as well as for agencies that engage in areas of risk and food security.
What factors are associated with maternal undernutrition in eastern zone of Tigray, Ethiopia? Evidence for nutritional well-being of lactating mothers
(2020) Abera, Semaw Ferede; Kantelhardt, Eva Johanna; Bezabih, Afework Mulugeta; Tsadik, Mache; Lauvai, Judith; Ejeta, Gebisa; Wienke, Andreas; Frank, Jan; Scherbaum, Veronika
Background: Maternal undernutrition is a pervasive health problem among Ethiopian mothers. This study aims at identifying the level of maternal undernutrition and its associated factors in Kilte Awaleo-Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (KA-HDSS), Tigray region, Ethiopia. Methods: Nutritional status of 2260 lactating mothers was evaluated using the mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC). Data from the vital events and verbal autopsy databases were linked to the survey and baseline recensus data to investigate the association of adult mortality from chronic causes of death (CoD) on maternal undernutrition. We employed a generalized log-binomial model to estimate the independent effects of the fitted covariates. Results: The overall prevalence of maternal undernutrition based on MUAC < 23 cm was 38% (95% CI: 36.1, 40.1%). Recent occurrence of household morbidity (adjusted prevalence ratio (adjPR) = 1.49; 95%CI: 1.22, 1.81) was associated with increased risk of maternal undernutrition. In addition, there was a 28% higher risk (adjPR = 1.28; 95%CI: 0.98, 1.67) of maternal undernutrition for those mothers who lived in households with history of adult mortality from chronic diseases. Especially, its association with severe maternal undernutrition was strong (adjusted OR = 3.27; 95%CI: 1.48, 7.22). In contrast, good maternal health-seeking practice (adjPR = 0.86; 95%CI: 0.77, 0.96) and production of diverse food crops (adjPR = 0.72; 95%CI: 0.64, 0.81) were associated with a lower risk of maternal undernutrition. Relative to mothers with low scores of housing and environmental factors index (HAEFI), those with medium and higher scores of HAEFI had 0.81 (adjPR = 0.81; 95%CI: 0.69, 0.95) and 0.82 (adjPR = 0.82; 95%CI: 0.72, 0.95) times lower risk of maternal undernutrition, respectively. Conclusions: Efforts to ameliorate maternal undernutrition need to consider the influence of the rising epidemiology of adult mortality from chronic diseases. Our data clearly indicate the need for channeling the integrated intervention power of nutrition-sensitive development programs with that of nutrition-specific sectoral services.