Browsing by Subject "Wirtschaftswachstum"

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Automatisierung, Wachstum und Ungleichheit
(2018) Schwarzer, Johannes; Prettner, Klaus; Geiger, Niels
Die Automatisierung stellt eines der wichtigsten Phänomene dar, welche aktuell innerhalb der Wirtschaftswissenschaften und der breiteren Öffentlichkeit diskutiert werden. Dabei finden sich in Bezug auf die Frage, wie sich die Automatisierung gesamtwirtschaftlich auswirkt, sehr unterschiedliche Positionen: Am einen Ende wird auf die negativen Beschäftigungseffekte verwiesen, wenn Menschen mehr und mehr durch Maschinen ersetzt werden und ihre am Markt angebotene Arbeitsleistung nicht mehr nachgefragt somit obsolet wird. Gleichzeitig wird die Automatisierung auch für einen Anstieg der wirtschaftlichen Ungleichheit verantwortlich gemacht. Optimistischere Stimmen verweisen andererseits auf die Entwicklung seit der Industriellen Revolution, die durch fortlaufende technologische Veränderungen mit hohem Produktivitätswachstum und damit starken Wohlfahrtssteigerungen einherging, ohne dass es langfristig zu Massenarbeitslosigkeit gekommen ist. Der vorliegende Aufsatz diskutiert einige allgemein relevante empirische Daten und skizziert ein einfaches theoretisches Wachstumsmodell zur Analyse der Automatisierung. Die hierbei festgehaltenen Ergebnisse werden unter Bezugnahme auf die aktuelle wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Literatur zu den bisherigen und für die Zukunft zu erwartenden ökonomischen Effekten der Automatisierung vertieft und erweitert. Aus den verschiedenen Ansatzpunkten und Überlegungen werden schließlich wirtschaftspolitische Handlungsmöglichkeiten abgeleitet, wobei auch jeweils diskutiert wird, welchen Einschränkungen diese Maßnahmen unterliegen.
Causes of persistent productivity differences in the West German states in the period from 1950 to 1990
(2011) Waidlein, Nicole
Since the Second World War the West German states show persistent differences in their standard of living. The explanation of the incomplete catching-up process within West Germany is of crucial interest. After identifying productivity as the major growth driving force, this paper investigates the main causes of productivity growth on the state level between 1950 and 1990. With the help of growth theories different determinants of productivity growth are identified. These are innovations, secondary and tertiary human capital, structural change, openness and institutions. Finally, the empirical analysis reveals that three of those determinants are able to explain the persistent differences in the regional productivity levels: innovations, tertiary human capital and structural change.
Children’s health, human capital accumulation, and R&D-based economic growth
(2017) Baldanzi, Annarita; Bucci, Alberto; Prettner, Klaus
We analyze the effects of childrens health on human capital accumulation and on long-run economic growth. For this purpose we design an R&D-based growth model in which the stock of human capital of the next generation is determined by parental education and health investments. We show that i) there is a complementarity between education and health: if parents want to have better educated children, they also raise health investments and vice versa; ii) parental health investments exert an unambiguously positive effect on long-run economic growth, iii) faster population growth reduces long-run economic growth. These results are consistent with the empirical evidence for modern economies in the twentieth century.
Decomposing a decomposition : within-country differences and the role of structural change in productivity growth
(2019) Mühlen, Henning; Escobar, Octavio
In this article, we investigate the relevance of structural change in country wide productivity growth considering within-country differences. For this purpose, we propose a two-step decomposition approach that accounts for differences among subnational units. To highlight the relevance of our procedure compared to the prevalent approach in the existing development literature (which usually neglects subnational differences), we show an application with data for the Mexican economy. Specifically, we contrast findings obtained from country-sector data on the one hand with those obtained from (more disaggregated) state-sector data on the other hand. One main insight is that the qualitative and quantitative results differ substantially between the two approaches. Our procedure reveals that structural change appeared to be growth-reducing during the period from 2005 to 2016. We show that this negative effect is driven mainly by the reallocation of (low-skilled) labor within subnational units.
Does size matter? Implications of household size for economic growth and convergence
(2018) Prettner, Klaus; Geloso, Vincent; Kufenko, Vadim
We assess the effects of changes in household size on the long-run evolution of living standards and on cross-country convergence. When the observed changes in average household size across countries are taken into consideration, growth in living standards is slower throughout the 20th century as compared to a measure based on per capita GDP. Furthermore, the speed of divergence between different countries be- fore 1950 is faster and the speed of convergence after 1950 is slower after adjusting for the evolution in household size.
Economic consequences of low fertility in Europe
(2010) Bloom, David E.; Sousa-Poza, Alfonso
This paper focuses on possible economic consequences of low fertility in Europe. It summarizes a selection of papers that were presented at a conference at the University of St. Gallen in April 2008. This introduction also reviews the history of falling fertility in Europe and the literature that explores its causes, its potential implications, and possible policy responses. It summarizes the evolution of thinking about the relationship between population growth and economic development, with attention to recent work on the mechanisms through which fertility decline can spur economic growth if the necessary supporting conditions are met. The paper also identifies some of the challenges of population aging that are associated with low fertility and suggests that there may be less reason for alarm than has been suggested by some observers.
Economic growth in the post-socialist Russian Federation after 1991 : the role of institutions
(2011) Hagemann, Harald; Dobler, Constanze
The paper emphasizes the transition in Russia and the role institutions played before and during the process. In Russia, a ?big bang? approach was applied. That is to say, transition was conducted all of a sudden, omitting important underlying reforms. This practice should function as a shock therapy. Hence, the approach should leave no other chance than an abrupt adaption to the new free-market rules. These rules would then lead to fast economic growth and development, as they did in other places. However, since Russian GDP per capita and thereby living standards deteriorated dramatically in the years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the plan did not work. At any rate, since then Russian economic indicators recovered and partly achieved their pre-1991 levels at the end of the last decade. The paper depicts Russia?s reform efforts and the subsequent developments. The close ties among the political elite, the banking sector and the old nomenklatura are demonstrated. The patrimonial system that persisted for centuries is still observable at the state level. At any rate, Russia can neither evade its historical and institutional development path nor its societal structures that are based on networks and nepotism. Russia?s systemic lack of the rule of law and therewith of secure property, the character of the Russian political system with the patriarch as the head of state and the resulting necessity of corruption and bribes inhibit the realization of its full growth potential.
Endogenous life expectancy and R&D-based economic growth
(2021) Tscheuschner, Paul
We propose an overlapping generations framework in which life expectancyis determined endogenously by governmental health investments. As a nov-elty, we are able to examine the feedback effects between life expectancy andR&D-driven economic growth for the transitional dynamics. We find that i)higher survival induces economic growth through higher savings and higherlabor force participation; ii) longevity-induced reductions in fertility hampereconomic development; iii) the positive life expectancy effects of larger savingsand higher labor force participation outweigh the negative effect of a reductionin fertility, and iv) there exists a growth-maximizing size of the health caresector that might lie beyond what is observed in most countries. Altogether,the results support a rather optimistic view on the relationship between lifeexpectancy and economic growth and contribute to the debate surroundingrising health shares and economic development.
Essays on demographic change and R&D-based economic growth
(2020) Tscheuschner, Paul; Prettner, Klaus
This dissertation analyzes the economic growth effects of demographic change embedded in a framework of endogenous R&D. Substantial changes in fertility and longevity are the two main demographic features that all industrialized countries have experienced during the twentieth century and are still experiencing until today. Although the individual gains of higher life expectancy and better education, initiated by a quantity-quality tradeoff, are huge, there exist concerns about the macroeconomic effects. To improve the understanding about the aforementioned relationships, this work extends the existing literature on the growth effects of population aging by 1) introducing exogenous longevity into a growth framework with vertical innovations; 2) by endogenizing life expectancy in a growth framework with horizontal innovations; and 3) by examining the growth effects of basic scientific knowledge over the very long run. Chapter two contains the first paper titled “Longevity-induced Vertical Innovation and the Tradeoff Between Life and Growth”, which is joint work with Annarita Baldanzi and Klaus Prettner. In this paper, the positive effect of a longer retirement period on individual savings is utilized. A higher exogenous probability to survive to old age raises savings, placing a downward pressure on the market interest rate. On the production side, a lower interest rate increases the present value of holding a patent, which, in turn, makes R&D more profitable. As a result, R&D employment increases, leading to a higher frequency of quality improving ideas and, with it, faster economic growth. It is shown that the relationship between life expectancy and economic growth is strictly positive. In a welfare analysis, the utility gains of living longer are disentangled from the longevity-induced utility gains of higher consumption. The analysis concludes that the direct welfare gains of higher life expectancy, usually, outweigh the indirect welfare gains of faster economic growth. Chapter three contains a single-authored paper and is titled “Endogenous Life Expectancy and R&D-based Economic Growth”. As the title suggests, life expectancy is endogenized and increases in the public resources devoted toward health. Again, the longevity-saving-channel is present. Additionally, a quantity-quality tradeoff is introduced, such that parents have to decide on the number of children to have and on the childrens level of education. Besides the positive saving effect, life expectancy impacts positively on the labor force participation rate and negatively on the fertility rate. The reason is that adults need to work more (at the expense of having fewer children), to compensate for a prolonged retirement period. The feedback effects with production, characterized by horizontal innovation, are then analyzed in a calibrated version of the model. Using U.S. data, the model suggests that the overall effect of life expectancy on economic growth is positive and amounts to 11.9 % of the increases in the real GDP p.c. over the period 1960-2017. From a welfare perspective, the results indicate that the growth-maximizing size of the health care sector might lie beyond what is observed in most industrialized countries, nowadays. The finding that the size of the health care sector that maximizes life expectancy is substantially larger than the growth-maximizing size supports the view to not only consider the growth effects of health care. Chapter four contains the third paper which is co-authored with Klaus Prettner and is titled “The Scientific Revolution and Its Role in the Transition to Sustained Economic Growth”. Basic scientific knowledge is introduced as a necessary input in applied R&D and increases in the number of tinkerers in the economy and in their education. For low levels of development, fertility is high and educational investments are zero. Once income surpasses a certain threshold, education turns positive. Together with the consequent fertility transition, this marks the takeoff to sustained economic growth. It is shown that the growth rate of as well as the access to basic scientific knowledge is crucial in determining the timing and the magnitude of the takeoff. For low growth rates and low access, the takeoff is delayed by up to one generation because applied R&D takes longer to become profitable. In the extreme case of zero basic scientific knowledge, no takeoff might occur at all. The results improve the understanding of economic growth processes over the very long run and provide one possible explanation why some regions experienced the takeoff to sustained economic growth earlier than others.
Financial development and its effects on the structure of banking systems, economic growth, and inequality
(2022) Gehrung, Marcel; Burghof, Hans-Peter
Besides the well-known factors for economic growth and income inequality such as globalization, technological progress, demographic change, or human capital acquisition, financial development is often overlooked. This dissertation uses the case of the Single Banking License on the harmonized European Financial Market to show how financial liberalization and the abolishment of financing constraints improve economic growth and closes the gap between top and bottom income shares in the European Union. In the second part of the thesis, with the use of a worldwide data set, we show that the actual access to financial services through a widespread network of bank branches and ATM machines is one of the major channels through which financial development affects economic growth and inequality. These two examples argue in favor of the supply-leading hypothesis of financial development. The third part of the thesis then gives proof for the demand-following side of financial development. By means of a novel and hand-picked data set of historical contracts for contractual saving for housing (Bausparen) from one of the first building societies in the Weimar Republic, the Gemeinschaft der Freunde Wüstenrot, we show how this new financial product spread geographically across the German Empire and across social classes. The fact that especially the upper lower class and lower middle class used CSH most frequently shows that CSH is a prime example of financial development. Meanwhile, the need for this new form of housing finance stems from an insufficient credit supply of common banks and only little subsidies by the state.
Identifying smart strategies for economic diversification and inclusive growth in developing economies : the case of Paraguay
(2019) Pinheiro, Flávio L.; Bezerra, Mayra; Hartmann, Dominik
A country’s productive structure determines its future path of economic diversification, economic growth, and income inequality. In this article, we identify Paraguay’s structural constraints and opportunities for economic diversification and inclusive growth. For this purpose, we advance methods from research on economic complexity and the product space to estimate how feasible and desirable are different types of new products and economic diversification strategies for Paraguay. To estimate the feasibility of different diversification opportunities, we measure the revealed comparative advantages and relatedness of 763 SITC products to Paraguay’s current product structure. To estimate the desirability of each product, we measure the expected level of income, economic complexity, technology and income inequality associated with these products. Our results indicate that despite Paraguay’s strong dependence on primary goods and resource-based manufactures, it has significant opportunities to diversify into more complex, high-income, and inclusive products. These opportunities include manufacturing products related to agricultural activities (such as machines for harvesting or food-processing) as well as chemical products (such as medicaments and vaccines). We present a scoreboard of feasible and desirable product options that helps to discuss different diversification strategies. Paraguay could for instance (1) only focus on the relatedness criteria; (2) further develop the products with intermediate capabilities; (3) promote diversification into related, higher income products; or (4) push towards complex and inclusive industries. Our results imply that only focusing on feasibility may lead developing countries like Paraguay further into an economic development trap, consisting in the focus on simple products and the large distance to high complexity and low inequality products. Instead promoting products that combine minimum standards regarding both feasibility and desirability criteria might be the best strategy for smart diversification and inclusive growth.
Inequality and guard labor, or prohibition and guard labor?
(2017) Kufenko, Vadim; Geloso, Vincent
In this paper, we consider whether or not inequality forces society to expend more resources on supervision which imposes an extra cost to doing business. Some argue that since inequality deteriorates social capital, there is a greater need for supervisory labor which is a costly burden to bear. We propose an alternative (but not mutually exclusive) explanation. We argue that the war on drugs leads to institutional decay and lower levels of trust which, in turn, force private actors to deploy resources to supervise workers and protect themselves. Our explanation complements the argument regarding the link between inequality and guard labor.
Innovation, economic diversification and human development
(2013) Pyka, Andreas; Hartmann, Dominik
In this paper we bridge a gap between innovation economics and the human development approach by analyzing positive and negative effects of different types of economic diversification on social welfare. Economic variety is a driver and outcome of economic development. However, diversification leads to ambiguous effects on the well-being of human agents: on the one hand, increasing variety augments the freedom of human agents to choose. On the other hand, it can overburden their capabilities to make economic decisions and can deteriorate their well-being. It becomes clear that human development policy has to go hand in hand with an industrial policy that promotes qualitative economic diversification. Depending on its dynamics, this diversification can be achieved via related and unrelated variety. We can expect a better design of development policies from a better understanding of the co-evolutionary development of variety, freedom of choice and well-being.
Relative consumption, relative wealth, and long-run growth : when and why is the standard analysis prone to erroneous conclusions?
(2019) Prettner, Klaus; Hof, Franz X.
We employ a novel approach for analyzing the effects of relative consumption and relative wealth preferences on both the decentralized and the socially optimal economic growth rates. In the pertinent literature these effects are usually assessed by examining the dependence of the growth rates on the two parameters of the instantaneous utility function that seem to measure the strength of the relative consumption and the relative wealth motive. We go beyond the sole consideration of parameters by revealing the fundamental factors that ultimately determine long-run growth. In doing so we identify widely used types of status preferences in which the traditional approach is prone to erroneous conclusions. For example, in one of these specifications the parameter that seems to determine the strength of the relative consumption motive actually also affects the strength of the relative wealth motive and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution.
Structural shift and increasing variety in Korea, 1960–2010 : empirical evidence of the economic development model by the creation of new sectors
(2016) Kim, Tai-Yoo; Pyka, Andreas; Yeon, Jung-In
In this paper, we examine the experiences of the Korean economy alongside theoretical knowledge of economic development and structural change. To demonstrate the generalized hypotheses on structural change, input–output tables of Korea, from 1960 to 2010, were analyzed. Our interest in taking time series of input–output tables originates from the following two issues. Firstly, we raise the question of whether Korean industrial structure changes have followed a certain pattern of structural shifts as well as increasing variety. Secondly, if so, it is questioned how the meso-level conditions for economic development could be explained from such a pattern. To search for answers, we adopt a model of the economic development by the creation of new sectors, named TEVECON, as our theoretical framework. Using this growth model, we derive hypotheses about how the structural change could affect economic development, and then we determine how the empirical analysis of the Korean economy verifies and deepens our understanding of structural change and economic development. This paper contributes to the empirical validation of the theoretical knowledge of economic development by the emergence of key sectors and the creation of new industries.
Structural transformation and its relevance for economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa
(2017) Busse, Matthias; Erdogan, Ceren; Mühlen, Henning
In this paper, we analyse the role of structural transformation in view of the remarkable growth performance of sub-Saharan African countries since the mid-1990s. Our analysis covers 41 African countries over the period 1980 to 2014 and accounts for structural transformation by employing the analytical frameworks of (1) growth decomposition and (2) growth regression. Even though the low-productive agricultural sector continues to employ most of the African workforce, our results reveal that structural transformation has taken place and that it has contributed significantly to African growth in the past decades.
The quest for status and R&D-based growth
(2016) Prettner, Klaus; Hof, Franz X.
We analyze the impact of status preferences on technological progress and long-run economic growth within an R&D-based framework. For this purpose, we extend the standard relative wealth approach by allowing the various assets held by households to differ with respect to their status relevance. Relative wealth preferences imply that the effective rate of return on saving in the form of a particular asset is the sum of its market rate of return and its status-related extra return. We show that the status relevance of shares issued by entrants to finance the purchase of new technologies is of crucial importance for long-run growth: First, an increase in the intensity of the quest for status raises the steady-state economic growth rate only if the status-related extra return of these shares is strictly positive. Second, for any given degree of status consciousness, the long-run economic growth rate depends positively on the relative status relevance of shares issued by entrants. Third, while the decentralized long-run economic growth rate is less than its socially optimal counterpart in the standard model, wealth externalities reduce this distortion.
The scientific revolution and its role in the transition to sustained economic growth
(2020) Tscheuschner, Paul; Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle; Prettner, Klaus
We propose a Unified Growth model that analyzes the role of the Scientific Revolution in the takeoff to sustained modern economic growth. Basic scientific knowledge is a necessary input in the production of applied knowledge, which, in turn, fuels productivity growth and leads to rising incomes. Eventually, rising incomes instigate a fertility transition and a takeoff of educational investments and human capital accumulation. In regions where scientific inquiry is severely constrained (for religious reasons or because of oppressive rulers), the takeoff to modern growth is delayed or might not occur at all. The novel mechanism that we propose for the latent transition towards the takeoff could contribute to our understanding of why sustained growth emerged first in Europe.
Wachstum und Beschäftigung vor dem Hintergrund des Solowschen Produktivitätsparadoxons
(2000) Schreyer, Markus
Wachstum und Beschäftigung vor dem Hintergrund des Solowschen Produktivitätsparadoxons
Wachstums- und Investitionsdynamik in Deutschland
(2012) Hagemann, Harald; Erber, Georg