Institut für Agrarpolitik und Landwirtschaftliche Marktlehre

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Using machine learning for supply and demand predictions in the German milk market
(2023) Baaken, Dominik; Hess, Sebastian
The German milk market is driven by various ongoing trends on both the domestic supply and the international demand side. This results in increasingly volatile prices, as well as increasing production costs, and both risks continue to induce dairy farms going out of business. Therefore market participants have expressed a desire for reliable forecasting tools at the regional level in order to be able to make strategic and operational decisions with greater planning certainty. However, such forecasting models at the farm or regional level do not currently exist or are not publicly available. This dissertation fills this research gap by developing a forecasting model for predicting regional milk production in Lower Saxony. The first of four research chapters, Chapter 3, compares five different Machine Learning (ML) models and a traditional linear regression (OLS) model based on time trends, direct and indirect weather influences, and price events. The ML models show advantages in forecast accuracy, in particular ML methods outperform econometric modelling in predicting non-linear developments induced by investment. Furthermore, differences in the efficiency of the methods are apparent: while comparable estimation approaches achieve similar accuracies, the training speed of the models varies considerably. Chapter 4 presents the relationship between seasonal weather conditions and seasonal milk production. This chapter incorporates the influences of direct and indirect weather conditions as well as time and price trends into the model. A Fixed Effects (FE) estimator is used to model quarterly milk production for a panel dataset from Lower Saxony. The results mainly illustrate the influence of farm decisions on milk production, which is stronger than the influence of weather conditions. Contrary to expectations, the influence of weather conditions during the growing season cannot be significantly demonstrated. Instead, there is a positive effect of warmer and drier weather in almost all quarters except autumn. Chapters 5 and 6 shift the focus to the demand side of the German milk market, examining in particular the sale of raw milk from vending machines. As farmers seek alternative sales channels, on-farm vending machines offer an opportunity for additional income. Chapter 5 develops a forecasting model based on a nationwide survey and the Xtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) algorithm. The model achieves sufficiently accurate values to qualify as a practical tool, allowing indecisive farm managers to input their own values into the model and thus secure their investment decision. The influence of the variables on the prediction is investigated using SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values, indicating that sales of raw milk from vending machines are influenced less by individual marketing measures than by various location factors such as population density, proximity to a city, and location along a road with commuter traffic. It can be concluded that there is additional sales potential if farmers would be allowed to place the vending machine in an optimal location away from the farm. Chapter 6 analyses consumer behaviour through a survey in Germany, using seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) to model willingness to pay (WTP) and frequency of purchase. The results suggest that in this form of marketing, consumers especially value a ‘fair’ price for the producer and are less price-sensitive. On average, customers’ WTP is higher than the current milk price and varies between consumer groups. Consumers with a closer connection to milk production are willing to pay more for raw milk but purchase it less frequently. It also appears that as consumers get older, they are more likely to buy raw milk but are less willing to pay for it. Tailoring marketing activities based on consumer characteristics can increase the efficiency of additional sales channels. Overall, this dissertation demonstrates the potential applications and limitations of ML methods for considering supply and demand in the German milk market. The forecasting models can serve as a potential tool for farmers to better weight strategic and operational decisions, thus contributing to more efficient agriculture.
Die Kraft von Awards : Umfrage unter Unternehmen und Vergabeinstitutionen in Deutschland 2023
(2023) Gebhardt, Beate; Hellstern, Laura
From an academic perspective, research on the effects of sustainability awards and their potential to contribute to sustainability transformation represents a niche. Against the backdrop of an increasing number of awards targeting companies and multiple crises "disrupting" companies in different ways and new EU regulations, such as on evidence-based corporate communication on environmental aspects, the question of the power of awards needs to be re-examined and answers are more important than ever. In a double study within the framework of the SIEGER project funded by the Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt (DBU), awarding institutions and companies throughout Germany were surveyed online in spring 2023. The objective was to discover first the effects of sustainability awards from the point of view of award-giving institutions, the donators, and companies, the award-recipients, and second the contribution they can make to a sustainability transformation. Sustainability awards are mostly attributed positive to very positive effects, both on the micro level (employee motivation), but especially on the meso level (image gain; awareness), less so on the macro level (ecological aspects; social aspects). The evaluation of the power of awards, their direction of impact and strength, in this study is perceived and is shaped by the different framing of the respondents. Award donors and winners overestimate the perception of awards by third parties as well as the external learning effects (imitation effects). The thematic focus on sustainability leads awarding institutions to overstate the intended ecological effects of an award. The majority of respondents believe that awards can contribute to sustainability transformation. Compared to other awards, sustainability awards are seen as having more power and making a more positive contribution to sustainability transformation. The analysis also shows that awards are a mirror of current political and social demands and developments. Beyond the ecological claim "sustainability award", awards integrate socio-ecological aspects in their requirements for the entrepreneurial participants of the competition. The further development of sustainability awards can therefore be achieved through internal development on the part of the awarding institutions and supported by external measures.
Zweinutzungshuhn – wie schmeckt das? Sensorische Beurteilung von Hühnerfleisch und Eiern von vier Zweinutzungshuhn-Genetiken
(2023) Gebhardt, Beate; Maute, Jutta; Kiefer, Lukas
Research into the sensory properties of meat and eggs from dual-purpose chickens has so far been a niche from a scientific point of view. In cooperation with the EIP-Agri project "ZweiWert", students at the DHBW Heilbronn therefore tasted, analysed and evaluated several dual-purpose chicken genetics in the integration seminar "Dual-purpose chickens: How to communicate the added value" in summer 2023. The genetics “Coffee" from the Ökologische Tierzucht (ÖTZ), "Sundheimer" from the Öko2Huhn project, "RegioHuhn" and "Lohmann Dual" as well as a control group from a classic laying or fattening line were assessed. The aim was to find out how different dual-purpose chickens taste and whether there are sensory differences or special features in meat and eggs Sensory attributes, including appearance, taste and smell, were recorded using a multi-methods assessment sheet. In short, the results of this explorative study show that dual-purpose chickens taste better. However, according to the testers judgement, there are differences not only between the different genetics, but also between the individual parts - breast, drumstick, wings or broth. The sensory profiles of the four dual-purpose chickens tested are varied and do not allow a clear sensory "ranking". The meat from Lohmann Dual apparently corresponds best to consumer preferences, while their eggs (cooked) are the least appealing. Overall, however, there is a consistent sensory superiority of the dual-purpose chickens over the specialised fattening or laying breed. These results - should they be confirmed in further studies - could contribute to increasing consumer acceptance of dual-purpose chickens and addressed in market communication to their further spread. The EIP project titled "Building Value Chains for Dual-Purpose Chickens in Baden-Württemberg" (ZweiWert) is funded by the Ministry of Food, Rural Areas and Consumer Protection of Baden-Württemberg from 01/2022 to 12/2024. Project partners include the Naturland Association of Baden-Württemberg, several departments of the University of Hohenheim, and many partners from agricultural production and marketing.
Status-Quo und Perspektiven von Zweinutzungshühnern in Baden-Württemberg : Ergebnisse eines World-Cafés im Rahmen des 1. Dialogforums des Projektes „ZweiWert“ am 2.3.2023.
(2023) Zikeli, Sabine; Bermejo, Gabriela; Imort-Just, Annik; Gebhardt, Beate; Hess, Sebastian; Kiefer, Lukas
The motivation behind the growing interest in dual-purpose chicken is diverse. Among other things, it is driven by the prohibition of killing male chicks from laying lines, by the desire to improve animal welfare in general, and by the preservation of genetic biodiversity and a more sustainable poultry production system. The project "ZweiWert" aims to create a regional network of actors in order to build up a value chain for dual-purpose chickens in Baden-Württemberg. Following a status quo and potential analysis of the agricultural production of dual-purpose chicken, a network will be established along the entire value chain, so that a sustainable production as well as a regular supply of the resulting products can be ensured. In order to promote the exchange between actors and to be able to develop policy options and recommendations, dialogue forums will be organized during the course of the project. The first forum took place in March 2023 and brought together representatives from different sectors. After various expert contributions, participants were able to exchange views on different areas of the value chain in the format of a World Café. In particular, the topics of networking and economic efficiency, cooperation, aspects of the legal/political framework and the need for more transparency and communication were mentioned during these discussions.
Zweinutzungshuhn – was ist das? Umfrage unter Landwirt*innen und Geflügelhalter*innen in Deutschland 2022
(2023) Hess, Sebastian; Zikeli, Sabine; Kiefer, Lukas; Imort-Just, Annik; Bermejo, Gabriela; Gebhardt, Beate
To comply with the ban on chick culling that has been in effect since January 2022, the Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture proposes three alternatives, including the hatching of dual-purpose chickens. In addition to the breeding and economic challenges of establishing dual-purpose animals in the value chain, the inconsistent understanding of what a dual-purpose chicken actually is and how its characteristics can be successfully communicated to consumers are seen as challenges. The goal of this working report is to present what a dual-purpose chicken is and what understanding farmers have of it. The German nationwide online survey among farmers and poultry farmers regarding the understanding and future of dual-purpose chickens was conducted in autumn 2022 as part of the EIP-Agri project "ZweiWert." The EIP project titled "Building Value Chains for Dual-Purpose Chickens in Baden-Württemberg" (ZweiWert) is funded by the Ministry of Food, Rural Areas and Consumer Protection of Baden-Württemberg from 01/2022 to 12/2024. Project partners include the Naturland Association of Baden-Württemberg, several departments of the University of Hohenheim, and many partners from agricultural production and marketing.
Status Quo und Potentiale des ökologischen Heil-, Kosmetik- und Gewürzpflanzenanbaus in Baden-Württemberg : Studienbericht & Supplement
(2022) Gebhardt, Beate
At first glance, changing social demands, such as the desire for more biodiversity and a more sustainable use of agricultural land, offer new opportunities for the organic cultivation of medicinal, cosmetic and spice plants. The increased health awareness and interest of consumers in organic food, natural cosmetics and alternative healing methods such as phytotherapy, lead to expectations of new product developments and market growth, both in the production of raw materials and in their processing and access to new markets and value chains. However, it is difficult to assess to what extent such potentials can actually be used by farmers and firms in Baden-Württemberg. On the one hand, only few data and studies on the status quo of medicinal and aromatic plant cultivation in Baden-Württemberg have been published. On the other hand, it is unclear which constraints exist for the further development of the organic medicinal and aromatic plant sector. This is the background for a recent status review in this report, which was carried out by the Department of Agricultural Markets at the University of Hohenheim from June 2021 to February 2022 funded by the Ministry of Rural Areas and Consumer Protection (MLR) Baden-Württemberg. The cooperation partners are the Centre for Organic Agriculture, University of Hohenheim, and the Netzwerk Kräuter Baden-Württemberg e.V. (Herb Network Baden-Württemberg).
Cartographie du commerce agricole au sein de la CEDEAO : structure et flux des produits agricoles, obstacles au commerce, lacunes en matière de financement et options politiques. Un projet de recherche en coopération avec la GIZ pour le compte du BMZ
(2021) Wieck, Christine; Kareem, Olayinka Idowu; Ejima, Joseph; Mahe, Rukayya; Alaba, Dare; Traoré, Sékou Amadou; Fynn, Mark Kofi
This study reviews the structure and flow of formal and informal agri-food trade within ECOWAS and evaluate the trade barriers, financial and quality infrastructure gaps. A mixed-method approach – qualitative and quantitative methods – is adopted which comprises an extensive literature review, analysis of available statistical data on formal and informal trade and trade barriers, a field survey, expert interviews and workshops. The intra-ECOWAS agri-food trade is still at the low level with most of the traded agri-food commodities largely without value addition and characterised by inadequate diversification of the export base. A preponderance of informal agri-food trade along both the formal and informal trade corridors are detected. Livestock, oilseeds, cottonseed, nuts, cocoa beans, cereal, cassava, fisheries, fruits and vegetables were the most traded agri-food commodities, which were not given any concession of passage or facilitated across the borders despite the perishability of the commodities. Agri-food trade flows in the ECOWAS are largely hampered by the heterogeneous trade policy measures across the Member states. This is often a barrier to trade and tend to increase trade costs and commodities prices, thereby constraining the regional trade benefits to the people while also making the trading countries uncompetitive. Women agri-food traders were often exploited and harassed by the different borders’ officials. More so, the low intra-ECOWAS trade in agricultural and food products is due to the low production capacities, which among others are due to the inadequate finance, poor quality infrastructure – soft (trained inspectors, customs procedures digitalisation, certification, etc) and hard (metrology facilities, roads, ports’ facilities, testing and inspection laboratories, etc.). Agricultural trade finance has been identified as one of the key challenges inhibiting trade in agricultural commodities in this subregion. Strategic policy options to promote agri-food trade within ECOWAS are provided
Mapping agricultural trade within the ECOWAS : structure and flow of agricultural products, barriers to trade, financing gaps and policy options. A research project in cooperation with GIZ on behalf of BMZ
(2021) Kareem, Olayinka Idowu; Wieck, Christine; Ejima, Joseph; Mahe, Rukayya; Alaba, Dare; Traoré, Sékou Amadou; Fynn, Mark Kofi
This study reviews the structure and flow of formal and informal agri-food trade within ECOWAS and evaluate the trade barriers, financial and quality infrastructure gaps. A mixed-method approach – qualitative and quantitative methods – is adopted which comprises an extensive literature review, analysis of available statistical data on formal and informal trade and trade barriers, a field survey, expert interviews and workshops. The intra-ECOWAS agri-food trade is still at the low level with most of the traded agri-food commodities largely without value addition and characterised by inadequate diversification of the export base. A preponderance of informal agri-food trade along both the formal and informal trade corridors are detected. Livestock, oilseeds, cottonseed, nuts, cocoa beans, cereal, cassava, fisheries, fruits and vegetables were the most traded agri-food commodities, which were not given any concession of passage or facilitated across the borders despite the perishability of the commodities. Agri-food trade flows in the ECOWAS are largely hampered by the heterogeneous trade policy measures across the Member states. This is often a barrier to trade and tend to increase trade costs and commodities prices, thereby constraining the regional trade benefits to the people while also making the trading countries uncompetitive. Women agri-food traders were often exploited and harassed by the different borders’ officials. More so, the low intra-ECOWAS trade in agricultural and food products is due to the low production capacities, which among others are due to the inadequate finance, poor quality infrastructure – soft (trained inspectors, customs procedures digitalisation, certification, etc) and hard (metrology facilities, roads, ports’ facilities, testing and inspection laboratories, etc.). Agricultural trade finance has been identified as one of the key challenges inhibiting trade in agricultural commodities in this subregion. Strategic policy options to promote agri-food trade within ECOWAS are provided.
Quo vadis? Ansätze der Qualitätssicherung von Nachhaltigkeitswettbewerben für Unternehmen
(2021) Gebhardt, Beate
This report summarises the findings of an expert workshop on "Approaches and possibilities for quality assurance of sustainability competitions", which was successfully held on 4 November 2021. The workshop was hosted by the BEST initiative at the University of Hohenheim, under the leadership of Dr Beate Gebhardt. In the workshop, together with stakeholders from practice and science, approaches for quality improvements and visualisation of high-quality standards in sustainability contests were identified and evaluated by the experts. Essential steps and research projects for the future were defined. The key results of the event are: 1.) the impact and power of sustainability competitions as potential drivers of sustainability transition is endangered (loss of significance); 2.) in order to sharpen their profile, high-quality sustainability competitions should become more visible (visualisation); 3.) the BEST initiative at the University of Hohenheim is starting a dialogue to develop criteria for high-quality sustainability competitions (orientation).
A 2014 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Uzbekistan with a focus on the agricultural sector
(2021) Wieck, Christine; Bozorov, Abdurashid; Feuerbacher, Arndt
Social accounting matrices (SAMs) are the core underlying data for economy-wide simulation models such as computable general equilibrium models. This paper reports the development of a SAM for Uzbekistan for the year 2014. The last SAM developed for Uzbekistan is based on the year 2001 (Müller, 2006) and Uzbekistan is listed among the top ten countries by GDP and population by the Global Trade and Analysis Project for which a recent input-output is missing. The SAM documented in this technical paper is characterized by a detailed representation of the agricultural sector. Generally, data availability in Uzbekistan is a challenge and the development process had to rely on myriad data sources. The final SAM values are estimated using an information-theoretic, cross-entropy approach. Using a Bayesian perspective, the degree of uncertainty of cell entries’ prior values reflected the availability and quality of data sources. In total, this SAM consists of 88 accounts. There are 31 commodity accounts and 31 accounts describe economic activities of which 17 activities are part of the agricultural sector. The factor accounts comprise five types of labor, capital, and main natural resources: land and water. There are three household accounts, one government, and five tax accounts. The authors hope that this SAM will allow researchers to investigate research questions that are of high priority for Uzbekistan’s future economic development, particularly those related to the future role of agriculture and water.
Plant-based foods for future. Results of consumer and professional expert interviews in five European countries - EIT-Food Project „The V-Place“
(2020) Hadwiger, Klaus; Gebhardt, Beate
This working paper documents the methodology of the qualitative studies and the resulting insights, as part one of the two-stage study of the Project „The V-Place - Enabling consumer choice in Vegan or Vegetarian food products“ in six European countries. The interviews with 70 consumers and professional experts in total has already been completed. Still in 2020, a quantitative consumer survey will be conducted in Germany, Denmark, France, Italy, Spain and Poland. The project is led by the Hohenheim Research Center for Bioeconomy, University of Hohenheim. The Department of Agricultural Markets at the University of Hohenheim is responsible for the qualitative studies. This project is funded by EIT Food, the Food Innovation Community of the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT). EIT is an EU institution under Horizon 2020, the EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation.
Nachhaltigkeitswettbewerbe in Deutschland 2020 : Übersicht und Methodik der Bestandsaufnahme
(2020) Gebhardt, Beate
This working paper present a systematic collection of German sustainability competitions in 2020 to all interested readers. The collection of 141 sustainability competitions serves as a basis for further projects and studies by the Business Excellence and Sustainability Transformation Working Group (AK BEST), University of Hohenheim. The present collection updates a previous list from 2017.
Essays on pre-commitment in Germany
(2019) Strohäker, Tanja; Becker, Tilman
As a superordinate topic, the thesis analyzes and evaluates selected pre-commitment tools that are available in the German gambling context. Pre-commitment is a form of self-binding that allows gamblers to limit money and time spent on gambling before they start a session. This is based on the underlying idea that gamblers will benefit from the fact that expenses and duration of stay are determined before commencing a gambling session, when they are not yet in a state of emotional arousal and hence more capable of deciding rationally. The most extreme form of limitation is the exclusion from gambling. While other countries established formalized pre-commitment systems allowing gamblers in arcades to limit time and money spent on gambling and/or self-exclude from establishments, Germany has not established such a comprehensive scheme yet. There are, however, certain types of gambling, for which at least exclusions are regulated, enforced and externally binding. To further improve the exclusion schemes, it is important to understand the drivers of exclusions. Hence, the second and third chapter of this thesis analyze the drivers for the variation of the number of exclusions between municipalities. Next to sociodemographic characteristics, the models also contain availability measures. Other than most countries, Germany distinguishes between casinos and gambling arcades. Casinos offer table games as well as automated gambling, whereas gambling arcades only provide electronic gambling machines (EGMs hereafter). Both establishments naturally attract different clientele, hence, a thorough examination of these two different types of gamblers is important. Chapter two concentrates on analyzing which variables drive the differences in the number of exclusions from casinos throughout German municipalities. This chapter aims to analyze the degree to which sociodemographic factors and proximity measures can be used to explain the variation in the number of excluded gamblers across German communities. At the time of the analysis, the exclusion file consisted of 31,118 unambiguously assignable entries distributed among 3,091 communities. The results of the study suggest that excluders are more likely to be male, between 30 and 39 years old, and less likely to be single. As only few of the sociodemographic variables yield significant results, we can only partially confirm the well-established risk factors for problematic or pathological gambling. Additionally, the results show that the number of exclusions increases with close proximity to gambling establishments. The distance to the closest casino has a negative impact on exclusions. This is backed up by the finding indicating that in relation, there are more exclusions in communities where casinos are located directly. Chapter three deals with a similar research question, which this time is tailored to excluders from gambling arcades in Hesse, Germany. The aim of the paper is to identify significant predictors that are useful in explaining the variation of exclusions between different Hessian communities. This data set contains 11,902 exclusions that are distributed among 191 Hessian communities. Next to sociodemographic factors, we control for three different accessibility measures in two models: the number of electronic gambling machines in model I as well as the number of locations and density of gambling machines at a location in model II. Considering the sociodemographic variables, the explanatory power of the cross-sectional models is rather low. Only the age group of 30 to39-year-olds and those who are not in a partnership (in model I) yield significant results. Hence we are again not able to determine a specific sociodemographic background for self-excluders. The accessibility variables, on the other hand, turn out to be significantly associated with the number of exclusions. All three of them are statistically significant and their association is positive. The fourth chapter deals with self-limitation, which is another type of pre-commitment. As there has existed no formalized limit scheme in Germany, it is left to evaluate voluntary and self-initiated limits that are frequently used as self-management strategies by gamblers, independent of their gambling severity. The analysis yields promising results. 50 percent of gamblers use at least one limit. There are significant differences in most variables concerning gambling behavior. Gamblers with limits consistently spend significantly less time and money in gambling arcades. The overarching goal of this doctoral thesis is to provide insights considering pre-commitment tools that can be used in the German gambling context. It shows that pre-commitment is an accepted and widely used instrument with positive consequences for gamblers. It is therefore worthwhile in any case to further expand the existing programmes.
Non-agricultural activities and household time use in Ethiopia : a computable general equilibrium model analysis
(2018) Mosa, Abdulaziz Abdulsemed; Grethe, Harald
Large shares of rural households engage, next to agricultural activities, in non-agricultural activities in most regions of Ethiopia. Non-agricultural activity is indispensable to reduce rural poverty and income inequality and contributes to livelihoods. The sector is crucially relevant for those who lack alternatives especially for women and landless rural households. However, the constraints of non-agricultural activities are not well studied and documented in Ethiopia. Few attempts have been made to identify the impediments to non-agricultural activities based on household surveys with limited coverage that are hardly representative of the whole country. Furthermore, to secure the potential benefits gained from the development of non-agricultural activities, it is essential to recognize and reduce the barriers confronted by the sector. To the author’s best knowledge, the potential economy-wide benefits drawn by reducing the impediments of non-agricultural activities are barely been studied and recognized. In other words, the potential effects of different policy instruments for facilitating non-agricultural activities are unexplored by the empirical literature on Ethiopia. Against this background, this study uses a comprehensive and country representative household survey to identify the constraints of non-agricultural activities in Ethiopia. Furthermore, two policy options for promoting rural non-agricultural activities are examined and discussed: First, the non-agricultural labor supply is stimulated by freeing labor time from labor-intensive home activities such as collecting water and firewood and second, the effect of improved access to road transport infrastructure for enhancing non-agricultural activities and its economy-wide outcomes are analyzed. The study reveals that major constraints of non-agricultural activities are limited access to finance, lack of market opportunities, limited education/training and poor access to roads, transport and communication. Rural households participate in non-agricultural activities due to a lack of access to agricultural land, low/volatile earnings, to look for a means to invest in agriculture and social/economic independence. The major non-agricultural activities are services (such as carpentry and transport), trade (wholesale and retail trade) and manufacturing (such as grain milling and brewing). The study also investigates the impact of water fetching and firewood collection on non-agricultural activities in Ethiopia. Since the sources of water and firewood are not easily accessible, households spend long hours per day for collecting water and firewood. For instance, rural households on average spend 0.64 hours per day for fetching water and 0.58 hours per day for firewood collection. The finding of this study reveals that water fetching and firewood collection adversely affect the adoption of non-agricultural activities in Ethiopia. Specifically, households that spend more labor hours for collecting water and firewood are less likely to engage in non-agricultural activities. The current study analyzes and discusses the effect of two alternative policy interventions for promoting non-agricultural activities in Ethiopia. The first policy option is facilitating the non- agricultural labor supply by freeing labor from water fetching and firewood collection. Improved access to drinking water infrastructure and energy efficient technology (for example, improved cooking stoves) significantly reduces the time spent on water fetching and firewood collection. The freed labor from water fetching and firewood collection is partly reallocated to marketed activities such as agricultural and non-agricultural activities or partly reallocated to leisure. Labor reallocated to market activities has economy-wide implications. This study examines the scenario of a 50% increase in the total factor productivity (TFP) of water fetching and firewood collection activities because of improved access to water infrastructure and energy efficient technology. Domestic and international sources of finance are used for funding water infrastructure and energy technology The simulation results show that improved access to water and energy efficient technology ensures reallocation of labor across different economic sectors. Since a large percentage of water fetchers and firewood collectors are agricultural laborers, agriculture absorbs a larger share of the released labor relative to other sectors (such as industry and services). Accordingly, the labor released from water fetching and firewood collection stimulates agricultural and non-agricultural production. Better access to drinking water and improved energy technology also enhances household welfare. Households that allocate a relatively large proportion of labor to water fetching and firewood collection gain relatively more welfare. Macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, total domestic production, absorption and imports are also positively affected due to improved access to water and energy efficient technology. The second policy option analyzed in this study is the role of improved access to road transport infrastructure for enhancing non-agricultural activities. Better access to road infrastructure reduces trade and transport margins and enhances efficiency of activities that produce trade and transport services. This study explores the policy scenarios of a 1.8% to 2.1% reduction of trade and transport margins and a 1.1% increase in the total factor productivity (TFP) of activities that produce trade and transport services. The cost of funding road infrastructure is obtained from domestic and international sources.The simulation results indicate that improved access to road transport infrastructure reduces consumer prices of marketed commodities and enhances domestic production in agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. The simulations also exhibit welfare improvement among rural and urban households and facilitate economic growth. Therefore, improved access to road transport infrastructure is important for the development of non-agricultural activities. In general, improved access to the road transport network, drinking water supply and energy saving technologies should be recognized as a fundamental component for facilitating rural non-agricultural activities in Ethiopia. This study has revealed that policy interventions targeted towards promoting non-agricultural activities lead to considerable economy-wide positive outcomes and stimulate the entire economic activities in the country.
Die Zufriedenheit der Landmaschinenhändler mit den Herstellern
(2010) Becker, Tilman; Staus, Alexander
This paper analyses satisfaction of agricultural machinery dealers with manufacturers of such. While several analyses have focused on carmakers for quite some time, this paper analyses the field of agricultural machinery for the first time. Between 2006 and 2008, dealers of agricultural machinery were queried about their overall satisfaction regarding distribution and marketing measures taken by the respective manufacturers. We categorised distribution and marketing measures into 38 subquestions, which we can summarise in 8 independent dimensions. We analysed the following tractor brands: Case IH, Claas, Deutz-Fahr, Fendt, John Deere, Massey Ferguson, and New Holland. In terms of overall satisfaction, Fendt achieved the best results followed by CLAAS, Deutz-Fahr, and John Deere. Massey Ferguson, New Holland, and Case IH obtained poor ratings. Between 2006 and 2008, Case IH and New Holland saw the greatest increase in overall satisfaction, thus moving up to the mid-range. Fendt and Claas shared the two top positions in all dimensions. Fendt shows optimal results in three areas: product programme, design of purchasing conditions, and relationship with manufacturer. Regarding the five remaining dimensions, Claas is spearheading in terms of satisfaction. We observe a similiar result for 2006. Fendt dominates with its product programme and shares the top position with Claas regarding relationship with manufacturers. Nonetheless, Fendt leads the way for overall satisfaction significantly. Considering the results of the remaining brands, we observe that good and poor ratings of the product programme and the design of purchasing conditions correlate with good and poor ratings of overall satisfaction. Of all dimensions, the correlation between overall satisfaction and product programme is highest with 0.73. The regression results confirm the relevance of the product programme for overall satisfaction. Three of the four items are significant: Product innovation, product quality and performance, and pricing. While the regression cannot confirm the relevance of designing purchasing conditions, two items within the dimension marketing and sales promotion have a significant impact. For tractors, there is a correlation between overall satisfaction and market share or changes in market share. Market shares and overall satisfaction increased for Fendt, Case IH and Claas between 2006 and 2008, while both figures fell for John Deere. The shares of Deutz-Fahr and Massey Ferguson remain relatively constant, while the overall satisfaction of dealers is slightly declining. New Holland faces fluctuations up and down between the years. Overall satisfaction grew. The development in overall satisfaction can serve as an indicator for future market share developments.
Obsoleszenz - auch ein Thema bei Lebensmitteln : Ergebnisse einer Expertenbefragung
(2018) Feisthauer, Philipp; Ding, Jana-Lisa; Gebhardt, Beate
Obsolescence is a topic that also concerns food products. Popular science has speculated that to a more or less significant extent, actors involved in food value chains were responsible for preliminary spoilage of food products. This speculation is true. Research and food experts in the field confirmed this during an expert survey conducted in 2015. This paper presents this survey. Experts confirm the main issue of this analysis which sheds light on the relevance of the following idea: Is obsolescence a topic regarding food products or does it only concern (technical) consumer goods? Only the latter is currently under debate. In total, 19 researchers and practicians from food value chains were surveyed and the majority shares this view. However, not all of them agree. The topic polarises researchers in particular. Eventually, issues such as the waste of ressources and social disparity due to food waste are not very disputed, irrespective of the reasons they emerged, but rather those responsible for the issue as well as the term that is to be used when food products spoil or are disposed preliminarily: obsolescence, food waste, avoidance, or other. The ensuing question focuses on this by addressing the advantages or added value if food waste was introduced into the debate on obsolescence or, on the contrary, if food waste was perceived in light of the debate on obsolescence. In this regard, we must emphasise the following key topics: 1) Avoiding arbitrary authority of definition: Shifting a term and generating authority of definition regarding (planned) obsolescence in merely specific areas is arbitrary. There are no objective reasons to apply obsolescence solely to consumer goods or technical devices. Irrespective of the type of industry, product, or the product’s shelf life, the reasons and circumstances for which products spoil preliminarily are similar in many aspects. Problems and reasons of unnecessary use of resources arise along the value chain due to processes and practices on all markets of modern and innovative societies. 2) Corrective of consumer responsibility: Addressing manufacturers and retailers represents a corrective when handing over responsibility for food waste. Especially in the food sector, to much responsibility is falling on consumers. In general, the aims of mitigating waste of resources are disputed. It should not pursue the way of least resistance and address primarily consumers. The corrective of consumer responsibility enables a corrective for solution-oriented approaches with greater diversity along the whole food value chain. 3) Problem-centred revision of definitions: In light of food waste, the use of natural materials and the role of agriculture are often neglected, described as inevitable, or excluded by definition or regulation (e.g. harvesting losses). However, obsolescence and its clear distinction between natural and artificial (planned) obsolescence does not fundamentally alter the view on natural resources of food and their use. Moreover, the necessity to critically revise regulation (e.g. the German Waste Management and Product Recycling Act) becomes clear. 4) Learning from and with each other: Changes in perspective and exchange among experts in debates on obsolescence and food waste are the bedrock to learn about tools, solutions, as well as experiences and mistakes made by others (e.g. proposal for a shelf life indication for technical devices without referring to experience with best-before indications of food products). Topics for further research include interdependencies and conflicts of targets which concern innovation for sustainability, shortage of product life cycles as well as the establishment of standards as means for more transparency to check their contribution to obsolescence and identify approaches for more appreciation in the overall concept considering all market participants.
An empirical analysis of the Swiss generalized system of preferences
(2018) Ritzel, Christian; Grethe, Harald
The progressively introduced DFQFMA for LDCs has a positive effect on the size of LDCs’ preferential exports to Switzerland. Consequently, the DFQFMA has considerably improved market access for the world’s poorest countries. Eliminating tariffs (progressively) causes preferential agro-food and textile exports of LDCs to rise substantially. However, it has to be remarked that the success of the DFQFMA is limited to the agro-food and textile sectors and to a few countries. The descriptive analysis of agro-food exports indicates that trade liberalization is a success story merely for a few LDCs, namely Tanzania, Ethiopia, Côte d’Ivoire, Mozambique, Malawi, Senegal and Uganda. Those seven countries capture a total share of nearly 80 percent of LDCs’ agro-food exports to Switzerland. In the textile sector we observe an even higher degree of market concentration concerning LDCs’ preferential exports. Here, three countries, namely Bangladesh, Cambodia and Nepal, account for 98 percent of LDCs’ preferential textile exports. It also can be noted that the GSP is a useful supplement to ‘duty-free tariffs’ (duty-free market access) under the WTO regime. For instance, 100 percent of LDCs’ agro-food exports from 2002 to 2011 entered Switzerland under reduced or duty-free tariffs. However, the share of preferential exports under the GSP was on average only 36 percent. In this context, the preference margin, which represents the main incentive to export under preferential conditions, compensates the costs of compliance associated with the GSP and yields an additional benefit for the importer has a consistent and positive effect on the level of the utilization rate. In particular, the application of the Heckman´selection model in article no. 1 makes clear that once trade contracts are established and an exporter has overcome bureaucratic obstacles in the form of proof of origin and proof of direct shipment, the ‘preference margin’ appears as the main incentive to export under preferential conditions granted by the GSP. While the effect of the size of ‘GSP eligible trade’ has a positive and significant effect in the case of the PPML estimations, the effect turned negative when the sample was restricted to positive values of the utilization rate in the case of the outcome equation of the Heckman selection model. This finding encourages our confidence that the ‘preference margin’ acts as the main incentive for exporting under preferential conditions. However, to benefit from these preferential tariffs, the institutional quality of a given DC or LDC is of crucial importance. Additionally, we address the question of whether reciprocal trade preferences are more beneficial for DCs compared to non-reciprocal trade preferences. Because trade preferences under the Swiss GSP are offered to the country group of DCs as a whole, non-reciprocal trade preferences are not tailored to the export structure of a particular DC. Consequently, by switching from non-reciprocal to negotiated reciprocal trade preferences, DCs such as Tunisia expect to negotiate terms which are tailored to their export structure and better conditions than competitors from countries which are still beneficiaries of the GSP. The Tunisian case study reveals that the switch from the GSP to an FTA causes no significant advantage in most of the export sectors. This implies that switching from non-reciprocal to reciprocal trade preferences yields advantages in export sectors where Tunisia has comparative cost advantages. This is especially true for the textile sector and partly so for the agro-food sector.
Casino gambling in Germany : development, legal conditions and the exclusion system
(2017) Becker, Tilman; Strohäker, Tanja
The aim of this paper is to provide an overview about the German casino gambling industry as a whole and the identification of its particularities, while putting a special focus on the present exclusion system. To achieve that, the foundations were laid by examining general developments on the market as well as pointing out recent legal changes, like the introduction of the Interstate treaty on gambling and its consequences for the casinos. Additionally, the application process and the basis for regulation of the establishments have been presented in detail. This general part is then followed by an extensive description of the German exclusion system. The program was set in contrast to those present in other, especially North American jurisdictions, in order to illuminate its unique features. Secondly, the focus is shifted on the development of a profile of excluders from German casinos by examining whether the established risk factors are also significant predictors for the number of bans in German communities. To our knowledge, there is no work explicitly analyzing casino patrons. Using a unique dataset, the approach brought some interesting insights. Some of the considered variables can be confirmed to serve this task in the given framework, whilst others did not yield a statistically significant impact. The most important sociodemographic factors are male gender, being between 30 and 39 years old, and not living in a partnership. The shares of the first two variables have a positive, the latter one a negative influence. Education, unemployment, and migration status, which are usually agreed on to be good predictors, did not exhibit significant results. However, it would be wrong to neglect them, as the outcome is probably owed to noise in the data, which lowers the precision of the estimation and could lead to insignificance. The coefficients of the variables that have been included to capture proximity turn out to be significant and bigger in magnitude than those of the sociodemographic factors. Distance to the next casino and the share of exclusions are inversely related, if the distance increases, the share of bans will decrease. The dummy variables capturing immediate proximity to gambling establishments also provide evidence for this pattern. If a classical casino or an annex is present in a community, this has a positive impact on the share of excluders. Considering only the proximity dimension of availability, the results are in favor of the hypothesis that higher availability could be a predictor for an increase of bans, which serve as a proxy for PG. The additionally included control variables also yield significant results. The coefficient of the indicator for a sparsely populated region shows that the share of excluders in said areas is on average higher than in dense ones. Furthermore, the share of assistance centers in a county positively drives the share of bans. The dummy variable indicating communities in the former GDR turns out to be negatively associated with the dependent variable. This makes absolute sense, considering the different developments of the gambling markets in these two regions between 1950 and 1990. However, the magnitude of the distinct effects on the amount of exclusions is rather small and the model is only able to explain about 10% of the variation in the number of bans, which is a rather small fraction. This is very likely owed to the fact that although problematic or pathological gambling is in parts driven by external sociodemographic factors like age, gender or the marital status, a lot of the behavior is facilitated by internal predisposition which cannot be captured with this type of analysis. Nevertheless, many of the proposed risk or, more neutrally stated, influence factors can be confirmed by this approach, which has been specifically adapted to the German terrestrial casino patrons.
Chances and limitations of European soybean production : market potential analysis
(2016) Berschneider, Jana
Overseas imports of soybeans from Brazil, the US and Argentina to Europe are increasing every year. Simultaneously, GMO farming in these countries is being expanded ever further. European farming of protein crops especially soybeans is being pushed by organizations and protein initiatives for economical and ecological reasons. In 2015 soybean acreages expanded drastically due to the additional Greening political measures which came into force. Therefore it is worth asking about the potential of a European non-GMO soybean market. The aim of this thesis was to work out the principal chances and limitations of a European soybean market under the current agricultural political conditions. Moreover, it should be discussed how many of the imported soybean commodities, of which more than 85% are from overseas, could be replaced by soybeans planted in Europe. In order to get to the bottom of the interests in this market from the perspective of the market actors, ten interviews were carried out. The result made it clear. European soybeans cannot yet compete with the overseas soybeans in terms of quantity (homogenous commodity lot sizes), price and even quality (mainly protein content). Thats why European non-GMO soybeans are not yet of high importance on the most important consumer market, which is the feed market, as large processors favor homogeneous lots and a reliably supply of commodities as to avoid volatile qualities in production. The greatest constraint comes from the limited availability of arable land in Europe as well as from a lack of early maturing soybeans that are well adapted to the European growing conditions. The restricted availability of arable land lead to a competitive situation with other cash crops such as corn, but according to the results of this thesis, soybean growing’s result in lower revenues and are therefore economical less competitive than corn. Thus, output (income) optimizing farmers under today’s conditions decide not to replace corn by soybeans. Furthermore, a limited practice experience in less experienced relatively new soybean growing regions slow down the development of a competitive European soybean market. Moreover, an insufficiently established non-GMO soybean industry hinder the market development due to difficulties of coexisting GMO and non-GMO commodities. Separated product flows in non-GMO processing plants, wholesale and collection points, are segments within the value chain which need to be further promoted for this market development. The zero tolerance regarding GMO traces in seed has been analyzed as a market barrier especially in the plant breeding industry. Thus, the thesis argued to establish a feasible GMO threshold value for seed as is already legal for food and feed.This is mentioned as a political constraint primarily, as well as too little effort towards specifically promoting a regional protein strategy, if more independence from overseas imports will be achieved. On the other hand, chances for the European soybean market are expected, as long as added value can be generated through special marketing programs, particularly trademarks. This means marketing products at higher prices according to regionality and non-GMO labelling. Therewith, a distribution of additional costs for testing and separation along the value chain could be achieved. Especially the Danube Soya Association is being described as a driving force. They mobilize market agents along the value-added chain, help to create uniform standards, test and monitors soybean commodities to be non-GMO and are finally labeled as such. In this way the non-GMO separation needs to be extended by European regulation to simplify the process to reach a European non-GMO soybean market. The consumers demand for local or organic products is constantly increasing. Consequently, non-GMO soybean components are being asked for in animal feed. A significant market opportunity for soybeans is that they are not really replaceable (in terms of quality) by any other protein crop without needing to reduce the economic efficiency of animal production. Therefore, the potential for demand is there principally. The analysis of the application of non-GMO feed shows that this is only of importance in smaller amounts in a few countries within Europe. Significant animal producing countries such as the Netherlands and Spain have no interest in non-GMO products. Thus, the intentions behind the European non-GMO soybean market, such as more independence from overseas imports, are likewise limited to specific regions of Europe. The European soybean production possibilities are economical and geographical limited and would not be able to do much more than satisfy certain consumer niches who are willing to pay the added value for non-GMO products.
Beschreibung von 24 Nachhaltigkeitspreisen in Deutschland mit Relevanz für Unternehmen der Ernährungsbranche
(2016) Gebhardt, Beate
Sustainability awards are an exclusive instrument of sustainability communication. They are significant limited - mainly quantitative. Not everyone can get such a price. Often only a few, mostly one, wins a contest.Interest in sustainability prices grows. This interest express companies, the potential winners,and show the donors of awards, the awarding institutions. In the last yearsmore and more sustainability competitions in Germanyare founded.Meanwhile, companies in the food industry can participatein 24 competitions with 82 categories (as of 2013). It is a dynamic market of sustainability awards - with lots of potential, but also some challenges. Independence and transparency of procurement become important elements of awards’ concepts. In this report, 24 sustainability competitions and their categories are featured in factsheets. This include the relevant competitions directlyaimed at companies in the food industry or be open for those.The approach to identify them isdescribed. In addition, the evaluation scheme of transparency of sustainability competitions is explained. Key results are described.

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