Targeting the poor and smallholder farmers : empirical evidence from Malawi

Houssou, Nazaire; Zeller, Manfred

Targeting the poor and smallholder farmers : empirical evidence from Malawi

dc.contributor.author	Houssou, Nazaire	de
dc.contributor.author	Zeller, Manfred	de
dc.date.accessioned	2024-04-08T08:43:24Z
dc.date.available	2024-04-08T08:43:24Z
dc.date.created	2010-02-17
dc.date.issued	2009
dc.description.abstract	This paper develops low cost, reasonably accurate, and simple models for improving the targeting efficiency of development policies in Malawi. Using a stepwise logistic regression (weighted) along with other techniques applied in credit scoring, the research identifies a set of easily observable and verifiable indicators for correctly predicting whether a household is poor or not, based on the 2004-05 Malawi Integrated Household Survey data. The predictive power of the models is assessed using out-of-sample validation tests and receiver operating characteristic curves, whereas the model?s robustness is evaluated by bootstrap simulation methods. Finally, sensitivity analyses are performed using the international and extreme poverty lines. The models developed have proven their validity in an independent sample derived from the same population. Findings suggest that the rural model calibrated to the national poverty line correctly predicts the status of about 69% of poor households when applied to an independent subset of surveyed households, whereas the urban model correctly identifies 64% of poor households. Increasing the poverty line improves the model?s targeting performances, while reducing the poverty line does the opposite. In terms of robustness, the rural model yields a more robust result with a prediction margin ±10% points compared to the urban model. While the best indicator sets can potentially yield a sizable impact on poverty if used in combination with a direct transfer program, some non-poor households would also be targeted as the result of model?s leakage. One major feature of the models is that household score can be easily and quickly computed in the field. Overall, the models developed can be potential policy tools for Malawi.	en
dc.identifier.swb	318773570
dc.identifier.uri	https://hohpublica.uni-hohenheim.de/handle/123456789/5303
dc.identifier.urn	urn:nbn:de:bsz:100-opus-4161
dc.language.iso	eng
dc.relation.ispartofseries	Forschung zur Entwicklungsökonomie und -politik / Research in development economics and policy; 2009,1
dc.rights.license	publ-ohne-pod	en
dc.rights.license	publ-ohne-pod	de
dc.rights.uri	http://opus.uni-hohenheim.de/doku/lic_ubh.php
dc.subject	Malawi	en
dc.subject	Poverty targeting	en
dc.subject	Proxy means tests	en
dc.subject	Out-of-sample tests	en
dc.subject	Bootstrap	en
dc.subject.ddc	630
dc.subject.gnd	Malawi	de
dc.subject.gnd	Kleinbauer	de
dc.subject.gnd	Armut	de
dc.subject.gnd	Prognose	de
dc.subject.gnd	Mathematische Modellierung	de
dc.title	Targeting the poor and smallholder farmers : empirical evidence from Malawi	de
dc.type.dcmi	Text	de
dc.type.dini	WorkingPaper	de
local.access	uneingeschränkter Zugriff	en
local.access	uneingeschränkter Zugriff	de
local.bibliographicCitation.publisherPlace	Universität Hohenheim	de
local.export.bibtex	@techreport{Houssou2009, url = {https://hohpublica.uni-hohenheim.de/handle/123456789/5303}, author = {Houssou, Nazaire and Zeller, Manfred}, title = {Targeting the poor and smallholder farmers : empirical evidence from Malawi}, year = {2009}, school = {Universität Hohenheim}, series = {Forschung zur Entwicklungsökonomie und -politik / Research in development economics and policy}, }
local.export.bibtexAuthor	Houssou, Nazaire and Zeller, Manfred
local.export.bibtexKey	Houssou2009
local.export.bibtexType	@techreport
local.faculty.number	2	de
local.institute.number	490	de
local.opus.number	416
local.series.issueNumber	2009,1
local.series.title	Forschung zur Entwicklungsökonomie und -politik / Research in development economics and policy
local.university	Universität Hohenheim	de
local.university.faculty	Faculty of Agricultural Sciences	en
local.university.faculty	Fakultät Agrarwissenschaften	de
local.university.institute	Institute for Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences in the Tropics and Subtropics	en
local.university.institute	Institut für Agrar- und Sozialökonomie in den Tropen und Subtropen	de

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Institut für Tropische Agrarwissenschaften (Hans-Ruthenberg-Institut)
Forschung zur Entwicklungsökonomie und -politik / Research in development economics and policy