The camp view of inflation forecasts

Schmid, Kai Daniel; Sauter, Oliver; Geiger, Felix

The camp view of inflation forecasts

dc.contributor.author	Schmid, Kai Daniel	de
dc.contributor.author	Sauter, Oliver	de
dc.contributor.author	Geiger, Felix	de
dc.date.accessioned	2024-04-08T08:43:23Z
dc.date.available	2024-04-08T08:43:23Z
dc.date.created	2010-01-20
dc.date.issued	2009
dc.description.abstract	Analyzing sample moments of survey forecasts, we derive disagreement and un- certainty measures for the short- and medium term inflation outlook. The latter provide insights into the development of inflation forecast uncertainty in the context of a changing macroeconomic environment since the beginning of 2008. Motivated by the debate on the role of monetary aggregates and cyclical variables describing a Phillips-curve logic, we develop a macroeconomic indicator spread which is assumed to drive forecasters? judgments. Empirical evidence suggests procyclical dynamics between disagreement among forecasters, individual forecast uncertainty and the macro-spread. We call this approach the camp view of inflation forecasts and show that camps form up whenever the spread widens.	en
dc.identifier.swb	316225932
dc.identifier.uri	https://hohpublica.uni-hohenheim.de/handle/123456789/5302
dc.identifier.urn	urn:nbn:de:bsz:100-opus-4158
dc.language.iso	eng
dc.relation.ispartofseries	Hohenheimer Diskussionsbeiträge; 320
dc.rights.license	publ-ohne-pod	en
dc.rights.license	publ-ohne-pod	de
dc.rights.uri	http://opus.uni-hohenheim.de/doku/lic_ubh.php
dc.subject	Monetary policy	en
dc.subject	Survey forecasts	en
dc.subject	Inflation uncertainty	en
dc.subject	Heterogenous beliefs and expectations	en
dc.subject	Monetary aggregates	en
dc.subject.ddc	330
dc.subject.gnd	Inflation	de
dc.subject.gnd	Prognose	de
dc.title	The camp view of inflation forecasts	de
dc.type.dcmi	Text	de
dc.type.dini	WorkingPaper	de
local.access	uneingeschränkter Zugriff	en
local.access	uneingeschränkter Zugriff	de
local.bibliographicCitation.publisherPlace	Universität Hohenheim	de
local.faculty.number	3	de
local.institute.number	520alt	de
local.opus.number	415
local.series.issueNumber	320
local.series.title	Hohenheimer Diskussionsbeiträge
local.university	Universität Hohenheim	de
local.university.faculty	Fakultät Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften	de
local.university.institute	Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (bis 2010)	de

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