Hohenheimer Diskussionsbeiträge

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Interest rate policy and supply-side adjustment dynamics
(2010) Schmid, Kai Daniel; Kienzler, Daniel
In contrast to the present consensus view of stabilization policy, theoretical and empirical research strongly support the consideration of supply-side adjustment to pronounced variations of factor-utilization in order to trace a more realistic pattern of macroeconomic adjustment dynamics within simulation studies. Against this background, our paper seeks to illuminate the relevance of endogenous supply-side adjustment for monetary policy research. We modify a basic New Keynesian model by explicitly considering demand-side stimulus on the evolution of productive capacity and analyze stability, impulse response, and welfare issues if the central bank follows a simple monetary policy rule. Thereby, we control for the robustness of our policy implications by various states of output gap mismeasurement the central bank might be confronted with. We find that, in contrast to a basic New Keynesian Model, output gap stabilization plays a more prominent role when potential output is endogenous.
Asset prices, inflation and monetary control : re-inventing money as a policy tool
(2010) Spahn, Peter
Low inflation on goods markets provides no reliable precondition for asset-market stability; it might even promote the emergence of bubbles because interest rates and risk premia appear to be low. A further factor driving asset demand is easy availability of credit, which in turn roots in the banking system operating in a regime of endogenous central-bank money. A comparison of Bundesbank and ECB policies suggests that credit growth can be controlled more efficiently if rising interest rates are accompanied by some liquidity squeeze that supports the spillover of a monetary restriction to capital markets. The announcement effect of a central bank Charter including the goal of financial-market stability helps to deter private agents from excessive asset trading.
Medium-run macrodynamics and the consensus view of stabilization policy
(2010) Schmid, Kai Daniel
Policy implications of the present consensus view of stabilization policy depend on specific assumptions with regard to the equilibrium level of production. Thereby, the interpretation of equilibrium output rests on a separation of supply-side and demandside adjustment to macroeconomic shocks promoting a dichotomy of short-term and long-term macrodynamics. In contrast to this, there are several channels that promote procyclical stimulus of aggregate demand and a changing factor utilization to the accumulation and efficiency of an economy?s productive capacity. Medium-run macrodynamics call for a rather endogenous explanation of production capacity and challenge the uniqueness of long-term equilibria.
Leviathan Europa : Stärkung der Nationalstaaten und der EU durch konstitutionelle Schranken?
(2010) Knoll, Bodo; Koenig, Andreas
The uncontrolled centralization of competences on the European level is problematic insofar as it does not correspond to the citizens' preferences. Constitutional constraints can prove essential for the freedom and the welfare of EU citizens. Existing constraints like the subsidiarity principle, the Council's qualified-majority voting threshold, the checks and balances between different institutions, and the constitutional courts are not sufficient. Sunset competences, opting-out rights of the Member States, and the introduction of ?Functional, Overlapping, and Competing Jurisdictions? could strengthen institutional competition within the EU in order to shape the Union's and Member States' policies more according to citizens' preferences.
The camp view of inflation forecasts
(2009) Schmid, Kai Daniel; Sauter, Oliver; Geiger, Felix
Analyzing sample moments of survey forecasts, we derive disagreement and un- certainty measures for the short- and medium term inflation outlook. The latter provide insights into the development of inflation forecast uncertainty in the context of a changing macroeconomic environment since the beginning of 2008. Motivated by the debate on the role of monetary aggregates and cyclical variables describing a Phillips-curve logic, we develop a macroeconomic indicator spread which is assumed to drive forecasters? judgments. Empirical evidence suggests procyclical dynamics between disagreement among forecasters, individual forecast uncertainty and the macro-spread. We call this approach the camp view of inflation forecasts and show that camps form up whenever the spread widens.
The impact of formal and informal institutions on per capita income
(2009) Dobler, Constanze
Despite the many approaches of neoclassical and endogenous growth theory, economists still face problems explaining the reasons for income differences between countries. Institutional economics and the deep determinants of growth literature try to depart from pure economic facts to examine economic development. Therefore, this article analyses the impact of institutions, geography and integration on per capita income. Concerning theoretical reasoning, emphasis is on the emergence of institutions and their effect on economic growth. However, institutions can appear in different shapes since political, legal and economic restrictions are not the only constraints on human behaviour. Norms and values also limit possible actions. Therefore, a differentiation between formal and informal institutions is made. The regression results affirm a crucial role of informal and formal institutionsconcerning economic development.
Getting people involved : a preference-based approach to water policy in China
(2009) Ahlheim, Michael
Market-oriented environmental policy instruments like taxes and fees or regulatory policy instruments like rationing are typically recommended in order to set incentives for citizens to make a sparing use of water. What is often overlooked in this context is that these instruments provoke resistance and non-compliance of citizens if they do not share the values underlying such a policy. Enforcing compliance with environmental policy instruments requires strict monitoring and the prosecution of trespassers and can be rather costly for government. The resistance to government policy and the incentives to avoid or evade the respective policy measures are the greater the less these instruments are in accordance with people's preferences, i. e. the less people accept these instruments and the goals they serve as reasonable. Compliance enforcement costs are mainly monitoring costs to identify trespassers and administration costs for their prosecution. This paper deals with possibilities to reduce such compliance costs by closing the gap between people's preferences on the one hand and government policy on the other in the case of water preservation in China.
Frauen als stille Reserve im Ingenieurwesen
(2009) Schlenker, Eva
Recent developments in the German demography will give rise to a shortage in skilled workers in the coming decades. The German economy is in need of thousands of engineers already. A solution to this problem might involve a higher degree of integration of female engineers into the workforce. Data from the microcensus 2006, the official representative statistics of the population and the labour market in Germany, confirm the existence of a hidden reserve of female engineers. Ordered response models and seminonparametric estimation methods are used to show that the labour supply in the engineering sector is mainly determined by age. In addition, the labour supply of female engineers depends on how many children they have, on the age of their youngest child, and on their partners? income. Moreover, women care more about their families, rather than focusing on their career.
The new Keynesian microfoundation of macroeconomics
(2009) Spahn, Heinz-Peter
New Keynesian Macroeconomics (NKM) obeys to the new dogma that macroeconomics should be firmly grounded in First Principles of micro theory. Households are assumed to run an intertemporal optimization calculus with respect to leisure and consumption by making use of perfect financial markets. The supply side is organized so that full employment prevails. Macroeconomic coordination problems between saving and investment are absent. In order to make model predictions more compatible with empirical facts, NKM chooses "ad hoc" microfoundations: utility functions and market structures are designed arbitrarily to allow for persistence of macro variables. NKM's reduced hybrid macro model, with lags and expectational leads, is a useful "work horse", compatible with various micro reasoning. However, NKM's insistence on the representative agent obstructs an understanding of heterogeneous beliefs and learning.
International interest-rate risk premia in affine term structure models
(2009) Geiger, Felix
I estimate a Gaussian two-factor affine term structure model of bond yields for three countries, the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany. I find a considerable time-varying component of excess returns in the data. They are positively correlated with the slope of the term structure and negatively with the short-term policy rate. In addition, the panel clearly indicates to co-movements in the same directions on an international level. When testing the estimated model for the expectations puzzle of the the term structure, at least at one end of the yield curve, this puzzle can be resolved when applying risk-adjusted yield changes.
Government decentralization as a disincentive for transnational terror? : an empirical analysis
(2009) Fischer, Justina A. V.; Dreher, Axel
Using panel data for a maximum of 109 countries over the years 1976-2000, we empirically analyze the impact of decentralization on the occurrence of transnational terror. Our results show that expenditure decentralization reduces the number of transnational terror events in a country, while political decentralization has no impact. These results are robust to the choice of control variables and method of estimation.
The effect of pension generosity on early retirement : a microdata analysis for Europe from 1967 to 2004
(2009) Sousa-Poza, Alfonso; Fischer, Justina A. V.
Using pseudo-panel microdata we show that pension generosity affects early retirement decisions. The changes in the average replacement rate and decreases in wealth accrual between 1967 and 2004 have caused an increase in early retirement probabilities from 16% to 63%.
Deflationary vs. inflationary expectations : a new-Keynesian perspective with heterogeneous agents and monetary believes
(2009) Sauter, Oliver; Geiger, Felix
We expand a standard New-Keynesian model by allowing for a special role of money in the inflation and expectations building process. Motivated by the two-pillar Phillips curve, we introduce heterogeneous expectations. Thereby a fraction of agents forms inflation expectations by observing trend money growth. We show that in the presence of these monetary believers, contractive shocks to the economy produce smoother dynamics for inflation and output. We also find that monetary policy should follow a conventional Taylor rule with contemporaneous inflation and output data, if it is uncertain about the fraction of monetary believers.
Trade and unemployment : what do the data say?
(2009) Felbermayr, Gabriel; Prat, Julien; Schmerer, Hans-Jörg
This paper documents a robust empirical regularity: in the long-run, higher trade openness is causally associated to a lower structural rate of unemployment. We establish this fact using: (i) panel data from 20 OECD countries, (ii) cross-sectional data on a larger set of countries. The time structure of the panel data allows to deal with endogeneity concerns, whereas cross-sectional data make it possible to instrument openness by its geographical component. In both setups, we carefully purge the data from business cycle effects, include a host of institutional and geographical variables, and control for within-country trade. Our main finding is robust to various definitions of unemployment rates and openness measures. The preferred specification suggests that a 10 percent increase in total trade openness reduces unemployment by about one percentage point. Moreover, we show that openness affects unemployment mainly through its effect on TFP and that labor market institutions do not appear to condition the effect of openness.
Trade intermediation and the organization of exporters
(2009) Felbermayr, Gabriel; Jung, Benjamin
The business literature shows that exporting rms typically require the help of foreign trade intermediaries or need to set up own foreign wholesale affiliates. In contrast, conventional trade theory models assume that producers can directly access foreign consumers. This paper models the endogenous emergence of intermediaries in an international trade model where producers differ with respect to productivity as well as regarding their varieties' perceived quality and tradability. We assume that trade intermediation is prone to frictions due to the absence of enorceable cross-country contracts while own wholesale subsidiaries require capital investment. We derive the sorting pattern of rms according to their degree of competitive advantage and show how the relative prevalence of intermediation depends on the degree of heterogeneity among producers, on the importance of market-specificity of goods, or on expropriation risk. We use US export data for 50 sectors and 133 destination countries to check the empirical validity of this predictions and find robust empirical support.
Endogenous skill formation and the source country effects of emigration
(2009) Felbermayr, Gabriel; Egger, Hartmut
In this paper we set up a simple theoretical framework to study the possible source country effects of skilled labor emigration. We show that for given technologies, labor market integration necessarily lowers GDP per capita in a poor source country of emigration, because it distorts the education decision of individuals. As pointed out by our analysis, a negative source country effect also materializes if all agents face identical emigration probabilities, irrespective of their education levels. This is in sharp contrast to the case of exogenous skill supply. Allowing for human capital spillovers, we further show that with social returns to schooling there may be a counteracting positive source country effect if the prospect of emigration stimulates the incentives to acquire education. Since, in general, the source country effects are not clear, we calibrate our model for four major source countries { Mexico, Turkey, Morocco, and the Philippines { and show that an increase in emigration rates beyond those observed in the year 2000 is very likely to lower GDP per capita in poor economies.
Ethnic networks, information, and international trade : revisiting the evidence
(2009) Felbermayr, Gabriel; Jung, Benjamin; Toubal, Farid
Influential empirical work by Rauch and Trindade (REStat, 2002) finds that Chinese ethnic networks of the magnitude observed in Southeast Asia increase bilateral trade by at least 60%. We argue that this estimate is upward biased due to omitted variable bias. Moreover, it is partly related to a preference effect rather than to enforcement and/or the availability of information. Applying a theory-based gravity model to ethnicity data for 1980 and 1990, and focusing on pure network effects, we find that the Chinese network leads to a more modest amount of trade creation of about 15%. Using new data on bilateral stocks of migrants from the World Bank for the year of 2000, we extend the analysis to all potential ethnic networks. We find, i.a., evidence for a Polish, a Turkish, a Mexican, or an Indian network. While confirming the existence of a Chinese network, its trade creating potential is dwarfed by other ethnic networks.
Sustainability and regional development
(2009) Ahlheim, Michael
While sustainable development is often viewed as a task for national governments this paper asks what can be done on a regional level. The first part of the paper deals with the general principles of sustainable development according to the concept of the sustainability triangle are explained. It is shown that while economic sustainability prevails during the first stages of the development of a country at a later stage social and environmental sustainability become essential for the mid- and long-term development and stability of an economy. In the second part it is shown that sustainable development is not a task for central government alone but is also an important challenge for regional governments. Some tasks necessary for a sustainable development like e. g. groundwater protection can even be better executed on a regional level. Therefore, special emphasis will be put on water protection in this part of the paper. In spite of the responsibility to be taken by regional governments the existence of significant spillover effects between regions makes it necessary to coordinate the policy between central government and regional governments as well as between different regional governments in order achieve overall efficient results.
Can international migration ever be made a Pareto improvement?
(2009) Felbermayr, Gabriel; Kohler, Wilhelm
We argue that compensating losers is more difficult for immigration than for trade and capital movements. While a tax-cum-subsidy mechanism allows the government to turn the gains from trade into a Pareto improvement, the same is not true for the so-called immigration surplus, if the redistributive mechanism is not allowed to discriminate against migrants. We discuss policy conclusions to be drawn from this fundamental asymmetry between migration and other forms of globalization.
WTO membership and the extensive margin of world trade : new evidence
(2009) Felbermayr, Gabriel; Kohler, Wilhelm
Recent literature has argued that, contrary to the results of a seminal paper by Rose (2004), WTO membership does promote bilateral trade, at least for developed economies and if membership includes non-formal compliance. We review the literature in order to identify open issues. We then develop the simplest possible \corner-solutions" version of the gravity model which serves as a framework to readdress these issues. We focus on the extensive margin of trade that separates positive-trade from zero-trade country pairs. We argue that the model can be consistently estimated using Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood methods with exporter and importer fixed effects. We account for coding issues and the potential heterogeneity of the WTO membership which recent contributions have stressed. While we find that WTO membership increases the likelihood that a given country pair trades, we do not find that the extensive margin has a strong and systematic effect on the average trade-creating potential of the WTO.

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