Spatiotemporal climatic signals in cereal yield variability and trends in Ethiopia

Abstract

Climatic variability and recurrent drought can strongly affect the variability of crop yield and are therefore frequently considered a risk to food security in Ethiopia. A better understanding of how crop yields vary in space and time, and their relationship to climatic and other driving factors, can assist in enhancing agricultural production and adapting to and mitigating the impacts of climate change. We applied a multiple linear regression model to examine the spatiotemporal climatic signal (air temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation) in the yields of the most important crops (maize, sorghum, tef, and wheat) over the period 1995–2018. An analysis of the climatic data indicated that growing season temperature increased significantly in most regions, but the trends in precipitation were not significant. The yields of maize, sorghum, tef, and wheat tended to increase across most crop-growing areas, particularly in the west, but was highly variable. The results highlight large spatial differences in the contribution of climatic trends to crop-yield variability across Ethiopian regions. The trends in climatic variability did not significantly affect crop yields in some areas, whereas in the main crop-growing areas, up to − 39.2% of yield variability could be attributed to the climatic trends. Specifically, the climatic trends negatively affected maize yields but positively affected sorghum, tef, and wheat yields. Nationally, the average impacts of climatic trends on crop yields was relatively small, ranging from a 3.2% decrease for maize to a 0.7% increase for wheat. In contrast, technological advancements contributed substantially more to yield gains, with annual increases ranging from 4.3% for wheat to 5.1% for sorghum. These findings highlight the dominant role of non-climatic drivers, particularly improved agricultural technology, in shaping crop yield trends. Our findings underscore the spatial heterogeneity of climate impacts on agriculture and highlight the critical importance of technological progress in enhancing crop productivity. They also provide actionable insights for designing crop- and location-specific adaptation strategies, and stress the need for integrated, climate-resilient development pathways in the region.