A new version of this entry is available:
Loading...
ResearchPaper
2009
The camp view of inflation forecasts
The camp view of inflation forecasts
Abstract (English)
Analyzing sample moments of survey forecasts, we derive disagreement and un-
certainty measures for the short- and medium term inflation outlook. The latter
provide insights into the development of inflation forecast uncertainty in the context of a changing macroeconomic environment since the beginning of 2008. Motivated by the debate on the role of monetary aggregates and cyclical variables describing a Phillips-curve logic, we develop a macroeconomic indicator spread which is assumed to drive forecasters? judgments. Empirical evidence suggests procyclical dynamics between disagreement among forecasters, individual forecast uncertainty and the macro-spread. We call this approach the camp view of inflation forecasts and show that camps form up whenever the spread widens.
File is subject to an embargo until
This is a correction to:
A correction to this entry is available:
This is a new version of:
Notes
Publication license
Publication series
Hohenheimer Diskussionsbeiträge; 320
Published in
Faculty
Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences
Institute
Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (bis 2010)
Examination date
Supervisor
Edition / version
Citation
Identification
DOI
ISSN
ISBN
Language
English
Publisher
Publisher place
Classification (DDC)
330 Economics
Original object
Sustainable Development Goals
BibTeX
@techreport{Schmid2009,
url = {https://hohpublica.uni-hohenheim.de/handle/123456789/5302},
author = {Schmid, Kai Daniel and Sauter, Oliver and Geiger, Felix et al.},
title = {The camp view of inflation forecasts},
year = {2009},
school = {Universität Hohenheim},
series = {Hohenheimer Diskussionsbeiträge},
}